Wednesday Bruins gonna win Stanley Cup MLB Discussion
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Gyno
Guest
Lol seeing nbafan +1 you, made my point even more...
I disagree with you tremendously and I know I'm not the only one... Thing is I'm not afraid to say it...
White sox may win but betting 10 units on a play like that? Betting cold ass Milwaukee?
With no braun, ramirez or weeks?
Wtf... I guess we'll have to agree to disagree about SportsNut
Marsski
MAC Marvel
He contrarian bets a good bit. Team that hasn't scored in two days to go over TT and game. He and I discussed it last year one day on here. It's not an approach I take normally but to each his own.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
Saying things like "at least the sophisticated ones" makes you sound like an asshole.
I'm out at dinner been somewhat lucky..I tried posting earlier w cubs n over, mets and over @ houston....my last one is sd +1.5 6u...ml 3 3uand F5 for 2...under2u..
Definitely will answer you gyno but there is no specific reason....I look for situations where expectations are imo off...
Definitely will answer you gyno but there is no specific reason....I look for situations where expectations are imo off...
G
Gyno
Guest
White sox was a horrible fuking play.. Seattle left a million on base..
Cws didn't get a man to 2nd base, til when? Lol..
Cws didn't get a man to 2nd base, til when? Lol..
True but don't you thinkl that has happened to cws during their losing streak? I probably have never been so shocked to see a score then to see 0-0 in the 11th and next score I see is 5-5 !
Thing is your talking about a Sea lineup that is led by Ibanez and Bay for the most part w Morales and Seagar playing to their abilities.
Thing is your talking about a Sea lineup that is led by Ibanez and Bay for the most part w Morales and Seagar playing to their abilities.
To answer your earlier question ...why milw because I think gallardo can best or at least equal Colon and then its a theoritical coin flip and I get plus money ....why cws? Because I saw it as the saturation point and I thinl that's why I took peavy yesterday. It was GW who said it best about peavy and how they got 6 early run off him. So thinking it could be a saturation point, combined w my opinion that axelrod can best or equal iwakuma, wilhemsen may not be available and cws ended a skid of games where they failed to score 3runs on Monday (meaning it was likely they would again break 3 + runs)....all this smells like a coin flip and maybe more in cws fvor and I get +160.....
Its more of. Counting cards mentality for me. Where I look for more ++ in my favor and when the deck is stacked in my favor I press my bet. The times the odd things happen or extreme things happen is when you hit a saturation point imo and like I said no one was more floored then me by the score
Also stats are meaningless....how many runners equals a run? How many guys on 2nd base w 1 out or less equal.un?? How many walks equals a run? The answer is every game its a different answer ALWAYS. Its also meaningless going forward...all that matters is the how and why ...
Sorry I don't hve a better answer just my viewpoint. You're not going to get a scouting report type answer from me
Its more of. Counting cards mentality for me. Where I look for more ++ in my favor and when the deck is stacked in my favor I press my bet. The times the odd things happen or extreme things happen is when you hit a saturation point imo and like I said no one was more floored then me by the score
Also stats are meaningless....how many runners equals a run? How many guys on 2nd base w 1 out or less equal.un?? How many walks equals a run? The answer is every game its a different answer ALWAYS. Its also meaningless going forward...all that matters is the how and why ...
Sorry I don't hve a better answer just my viewpoint. You're not going to get a scouting report type answer from me
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
combined w my opinion that axelrod can best or equal iwakuma,This is absurd. In the actual game 8 innings 3 men on base vs 5.1 with 11 on base.There are many features here worth mentioning. 2 that stand out are that Seattle scored 7 runs the previous day which is a major no no for that team and they were playing off a Felix game and with the Yankees coming in the next day none of which was good for them here. I of course am the smuck that lost the Seattle team total under. Bottom line there were reasonable arguments for WS but none for
combined w my opinion that axelrod can best or equal iwakuma,
combined w my opinion that axelrod can best or equal iwakuma,
You're taking it to literal. Axelrod just pitched well at oakpnd vs colon and a much better lineup. When I see equal or best I mean in 2 areas, the only 2 areas that matter imo....innings pitched and runs allowed...so when I say that I believe Iwakuma may toss 7 inn and allow 2-3 runs and I believe Axelrod can match or better that...simple as that...Of course one can add that cws did not want to have a winless road trip.
The whole look ahead or who is coming up in my opinion is pointless when you're talking about a bad seattle team who had its best sp to date going. Naturally there are flat spots and key ganes over 162 game season but I'm not implying that every series or two has one.
This whole notion of baserunners being meaningful is somewhat absurd. Every losing team in a close game probably strands a ton of runners ----thats why they lost. Offenses don't hit well w RISP fir stretches as well. Some guys never allow that key hit but always seem to have runners on OR Yu Darvish mows down 14 and still allow 4 runs...
All I did was answer why I liked cws and I gave my answer. I know its opinion based and people may disagree but its still why I played it..I loom simply at how games may play out, the situation and the patterns of the teams and involved in terms ofs runs scored...
I took sd because marquis has a solid history @ dodger stadium and I think he can match kershaw who is a tad off his game last 2 starts....I did it w gallardo ....I took the mets because Gee was so good vs yanks and haren is basically avg these days and mets choked the night before so thought it wasa coin flip.....you can check back and see I faded vargas and played over his last start and lost but I did it again yesterday and won....
It's pretty simple I just bet what I like and whatever happens happens. I mean Imanaged to back an I uted SP 3 days in a row this week....most of the losses have bullshit occurrences but that just how it is....I faded texas on tues because grimm allowed 40hits his past 5 starts and boom boston gets 17runs...not something I see but something I see as a good time to implode and thankfully it tends to work out. I love stats and all but you can't put meaning to baseball stats that cover 162 games a season and much more for careers...
The whole look ahead or who is coming up in my opinion is pointless when you're talking about a bad seattle team who had its best sp to date going. Naturally there are flat spots and key ganes over 162 game season but I'm not implying that every series or two has one.
This whole notion of baserunners being meaningful is somewhat absurd. Every losing team in a close game probably strands a ton of runners ----thats why they lost. Offenses don't hit well w RISP fir stretches as well. Some guys never allow that key hit but always seem to have runners on OR Yu Darvish mows down 14 and still allow 4 runs...
All I did was answer why I liked cws and I gave my answer. I know its opinion based and people may disagree but its still why I played it..I loom simply at how games may play out, the situation and the patterns of the teams and involved in terms ofs runs scored...
I took sd because marquis has a solid history @ dodger stadium and I think he can match kershaw who is a tad off his game last 2 starts....I did it w gallardo ....I took the mets because Gee was so good vs yanks and haren is basically avg these days and mets choked the night before so thought it wasa coin flip.....you can check back and see I faded vargas and played over his last start and lost but I did it again yesterday and won....
It's pretty simple I just bet what I like and whatever happens happens. I mean Imanaged to back an I uted SP 3 days in a row this week....most of the losses have bullshit occurrences but that just how it is....I faded texas on tues because grimm allowed 40hits his past 5 starts and boom boston gets 17runs...not something I see but something I see as a good time to implode and thankfully it tends to work out. I love stats and all but you can't put meaning to baseball stats that cover 162 games a season and much more for careers...
Like I said its more counting cards in blackjack then anything else...all my plays had + signs and some fairly big ones...I think you have to make ugly plays that are tough to verbalize...if you can rationalize and explain to easily why a +170 dog is a great value then it probbly isn't ...like any other its to good to be true deal in life...
Thanks guys ...I finally read the whole thread..I had a great day couldn't have gone better. Not everyone has to agree, there are 2 sides to every arguement. In the end I hope we are all right when it means the most ...in my case.depending how my units are stacked... Sure I lost 3 units on milw but I won 5 on the under so what's the harm? I won and the game was 1-1 after 6 inn...I had a shot and lost ...it happens. Not sure why gynecologist thinks I'm so terrible but I do my best to post all my plays. Yesterday was the rare day I couldn't get all of them up, bc is it really worth me trying to post on my phone while I am driving to brooklyn? Yeah not worth it all...still my day was good enough that some people don't win a season what I took in for a half day...whether ones are units are 10 bucks , 50,100, etc...a unit is universal it's 1 for everyone but what the one is can be discretionary...
I faded zito and played jays for the same reason as well...zito wad 14-0 at hone but last 2 hone starts were shaky, he was smashed by jays earlier, sf had a fortunate 2-1 win the day before, and dickey while struggling is unpredictable but w a high upside...he goes out and spins a gem...not because I expected him too but because the spit lined up imo for Toronto and I get an extreme result...isn't fading a guy who has won 14 straight at home and a pk basically the same as fading a guy who has been cy young like vs a team who has kost 8 straight and struggled to score??
I faded zito and played jays for the same reason as well...zito wad 14-0 at hone but last 2 hone starts were shaky, he was smashed by jays earlier, sf had a fortunate 2-1 win the day before, and dickey while struggling is unpredictable but w a high upside...he goes out and spins a gem...not because I expected him too but because the spit lined up imo for Toronto and I get an extreme result...isn't fading a guy who has won 14 straight at home and a pk basically the same as fading a guy who has been cy young like vs a team who has kost 8 straight and struggled to score??
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