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Wed NBA

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Late start with the posting just real tired and basically burnt out at this point....

Under 178 -110 Orlando (Medium)
Orl -7 -112 (Small)

First glimpse it appeared Nelson and Turk would return but that was wishful thinking. The Magic have scored more then 92 pts something like ONCE in the past 12 games and have failed to crack 89 for 5 straight at home. They are to the UNDER what Den and GS are to the OVER...... Hornet relying heavily on butlet & Paul for offense and with Howard in the pain they wont get many easy buckets...NO shot there load in teh 2nd Q in Miami with 37 and finished the game with 36 pts in the final 2 quarters & ORL on 3 days rest tends to leave offenses flat..Dont see NO winning without some interior scoring so just a matter of the cover IMO..

Hawks +6 -110 (XLarge) & ML +210 (Value)

Looks like Hawks finally get Childress back and Lue would be a plus...Basically Utah has owned ATL lately but I like the way Hawks are rounding into form with Marvin Williams back...The Hawks w/o JJ were only +8 to Denver so I had this at closer to 3.5 or 4....sure Utah could be looking to bounce back here but there play on the road doesnt indicate to me they can simly turn it on or off whenever...This team started off in Indy catching 1.5 , then were inflated @ NY and lost SU...seems to me the perception here is Utah will bounce back...lean on the OVER...

Over 94.5 -117 1st H Philly (Medium)

The Sixers seem to play a good first half of offense then fade away....Lokk at what Indy is allowing...


Over 217 -110 Golden State(Large)
Over 111 +105 1st H (Small)
Over 109.5 -103 Boston (Small)
Over 108 -107 GS (Small)

Last 2 Celts home games...Den & Pho totals 213 & 220.5...233 & 227 scored...one issue is Ellis is Doubtful but Richardson is back and Boston has had 3 days off which always worries me...but should be a transition type tempo..Past 7 away GS allowed 105 + but 117 or better in five of those...Boston scored 109 in both meetings last year...

Under 193 -110 NYK (Large)
NYK -4 -110 (Small) & -2 -114 1st H (Small)

With Balkman as your 6th man and Cato and Rose as your bench defense is your priority...Char missing May and Knight will slow the offense in a road setting...last game was the first Char cracked 85 w/o Knight...

Over 100 -111 Minny (medium)
Wolves -5 -110 (Small)

Lakers have struggled on defense since Odom went down..basically allowing opponents to shot 50++...couple of tough OT games and another tight one last nite facing a rested Wolves team...

Nets ML -110 (Medium)
Under 187 -110 (Medium)

NJ had won 5 straight in the series but Cavs took the past 2....The Cavs have not played well on teh road and are just 1 -10 ATS in the series...

Grizz +13 -110 ( Medium)
Over 184.5 -114 SA (Large)
Over 99 -110 SA (Small)

See no reason why SA doesnt again crack 100 points...Grizz allowing 96 , 98 , 98 ,100 and 105 past 5 away while only SA game they fell below 100 was the 95 vs Minny at home....

Over 202.5 -102 Bucks (Medium ) & (small) before tip whereever the # is

Still working on the final four........Didnt have much time today and went with my original thoughts from yesterday afternoon so take that into consideration
 
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Have not had much time myself and honestly think the games today may surprise many but definitely with you on Atlanta. GL
 
Basically I am mentally spent at the moment tried my best to stay away today and not get involved...having trouble just thinking clearly...anyway

Suprise ...how?? let me in.. BOL bro
 
Wont be around till probably 9 or 10 PM as I have my own basketball game in abit.....

Plays:

Magic -7 -110 (Medium)
Under 178 -110 (Medium)
Under 85.5 -123 NO team (Small)

Over 94.5 -117 Philly 1st Half (Medium)
Over 91 -128 Philly team (Small)
Philly +6 -110 (Medium) +210 (Value)

Hawks +6 -110 (XLarge) ML +210 (Value)
Lean: Over 93.5 -113 Atl team

Over 217 -110 boston (Large)
Over 111 +105 1st H (Small)
Over 109.5 -103 Boston team (Small)
Over 108 -107 GS team (Small)
Bos -1.5 -110 (Small)

NYK -4 -110 (Small) & -2 -114 1st H (Small)
Under 193 -110 NYK (Large)
Under 93.5 -113 Char team (Small)

Over 100 Minny team -111 (Medium)
Wolves -5 -110 (Small)

NJ ML -110 (Medium)
Under 187 -110 (Medium)

Grizz +13 -110 (Medium) ML +830 (Value)
Over 184.56 -114 (Large)
Over 99 -110 SA team (Small)

Over 202.5 -102 Milw (Medium) & (Small)
 
Love ur Large plays Sporty...
any late nite plays? Im considering dallas(But its a very huge public play, will u still play it? ) and LAC....
 
knicks playin like well the knicks like i thought

wish i placed atl ml instead of +6

and GS playin well so far
 
Just getting settled in, been home abit....looking back little disgusted at myself cause I loved 2 overs and talked myslef out of them cause they kept falling...over ATL 192 and Over 195 Minny...

2nd H
Over 99 -121 LAL (Small)..
Under 94 -118 Cavs (Small)
Under 92.5 SA -111 (Small) hedge
Wolves -4.5 -109 (Medium)

Passed on NY and Under 95 @ half...

I'll be back with my late nite..
 
The Bost total looked great early but they keep fading 21 pts first 4 minutes of the 3rd then need twice that time for the next 21 pts...OT!
 
Can't believe what just happened in the Atlanta game; never seen a collapse as big as that. Up 21 points at the start of the fourth and fail to cover 5.5 - at least you got the push!
:hairout:
 
I couldnt be in a worse mood to begin with and so far my decision making is not helping out...rage would be a the nice way to say I really need to find away to take out my anger w/o breaking someone in 2 pieces.......

Once I read Supersavs...should have taken the ML and seen the score I knew ATL was done...no offense super just the ole counting the chickens before they hatched metality...

Over 181 -110 Port (medium)
Over 94 -103 Hous (Medium)

2nd H Hous -6 +112 (Medium)
Ov 90.5 -120 (Small)

Fucking Knicks teasing me with this under......
 
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I cant stand Crawford! Dumb fuck...drive the basket..these guys have no basketball IQ.....settle for the jumper everytime...Could have used that gift!
 
my bad fellas i was upset at myself for not takin it fuck i wont "jinx" again
 
Supersav said:
my bad fellas i was upset at myself for not takin it fuck i wont "jinx" again

Dude dont worry I certainly dont blame you its just one of those things I saw and knew everybody must have ben thinking the samething....if I was home at half I probably would have middled some...it happens..like I said I am just in pissy mood and this BS is only adding fuel to the fire I should been cleaning up...and I am getting fucked on stupidity...I am already pissed cause I wanted to knock out my basketball team for playing like idiots and I come home and gotta watch these idiots in NBA do the same shit that pissed me off in the first place...I am very competitive....and I gamble to make right decisions...so bad decision making is gonna irk me...and stupidity will piss me off further...so dont worry ..
 
Well see what pisses me off is this...playing Overs in games where on team has been off for 3 or more days......its pure stupidity and I know better that teams off extended rest tend to be falt so I play the Bos over with 2 key scores out and the Celts on 3 days rest!!! Then I follow up and play a Portland over when they have 5 days off I deserve to lose those plays...

10:30

Sonics +8 -110 (Large)
Sonics +4 +115(Medium)

Posted in a rush buthave both ML's as (Value ) plays for the Sonics like I do with all dogs
Would like to play the over but I will talk myself out of that one... sice Sea off the OT game...

Under 196 -105 Tor (Medium)
 
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The hawks were my downfall but tied @ 95 any NY win in regulation puts the smile back on my face....

I just hate the mistakes...Orl , Philly , NYK all games there was no value in where as they washed out sound calls by me...

Interested to see how this nite plays out....the biggest MOOSE ever is Minny though I F'n loved the over 195 and dont know what my brain was thinking when I talked myself out of that and ATL over . Anyway 87 pts to start the 3rd Q and they score 7 pts in the 4th Q!! Needed 14 to win.....
 
i cant believe i passed on that utah over either, i told many yesterday i loved that play and it doesnt make it on my card, brilliant
 
Sort of mt recap what I felt was poor decision making...

First with the Orl game I felt the line was correct but lets face ORL hasnt played well and NO is a wildcard every nite. So why the lay the 7.5? It cancels out a good feel I had for the Under...I dont feel NO can win SU and I Orl has struggled to crack 89 on offense lately..

Then with Philly sure Indy hasnt played well enough to lay 6 points but I said Philly play wells for a half so why didnt I take the +3 instead?? Again had a decent feel for the over...

Well I cant complain about the ATL side but as we said 192/193 is a soft number for this game...its obvious bth teams are cracking 95..

The GS game because Wally is OUT thinning the bench and Ellis is limited should be a sign to backoff a 217 total. Furthermore its obvious when a team has 3 days off they lost there momentum so why even dabble with Bos...and gain why dabble in anover when a team is off 3 ++ days...

The NYK I cant complain about the under...I was concerned they put up 206 at home w/o Knight and may only 10 minutes but I an fine with that decision...why lay 4with NYK where is the value...

With Minny i talked myself off the over...why I dont know Wolves score 100+ at home and LAL allowing 50% shooting w/o Odom...my beef with the Wolves is from the way I cap lines were closer to -3.5 here so no value...

WIth NJ loved the Nets who were cheap in my estimation and again had to play the total...for what...my discouraged cause they should not have been even weighted plays...

Now with Hou I fucked myself...goes back to situational capping...you just never take overs with long rest..5 days off and now its a LOSS...

Why didnt I take an over 191/192 in Seattle..??

This is me thinking outloud...
 
Well I am guility of not hedging with DAL @ Half only -5.5...got a PUSH what a game...

Tied @ 85 with 6 to play , see 93 -85 with 3:30 to go next thing I seee 101 -87 with a minute to play....and then DAL hands Sea a backdoor...2FTs at the 1 minute mark...turnover then foul to the Line only 1-2 , the a steal and a bucket...down 9...then a traveling and a Sene hoop and 1..converts down 6..they foul Harris hits both Watson misses a 3 ballgame!!
 
back door was there sporty but it shouldn't have been needed....sea is a jumper team and they were out FT'd by like 26points

dampier turned into shaq all of a sudden

good grief :(
 
3gamblers said:
crazy crazy.....but as long as we win...it doesnt matteR!

Today I messed up and caught 3 bad breaks...managed to loss 8-10 units...I cant complain I think I was near +100 units from two weekends ago to this weekend....last few days right around flat before tonite...cant win them all......at peace with the fact it was my decision making that hurt me and those 3 bad breaks (Atl , Sea and Minny team total) more then actual capping....
 
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