Wed Discussion

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Wed 5/14



</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD>More</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>901</TD><TD>Atlanta Braves
T. Glavine

</TD><TD>+1.5 -155</TD><TD>+131</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -126</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>902</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
B. Myers

</TD><TD>-1.5 +145</TD><TD>-139</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 +116</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>903</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
R. Nolasco

</TD><TD>+1.5 -159</TD><TD>+131</TD><TD>OVER 10.5 +104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>904</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
B. Arroyo

</TD><TD>-1.5 +149</TD><TD>-139</TD><TD>UNDER 10.5 -114</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>907</TD><TD>Los Angeles Dodgers
D. Lowe

</TD><TD>-1.5 +144</TD><TD>-108</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -102</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>908</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
M. Parra

</TD><TD>+1.5 -154</TD><TD>+100</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -108</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>909</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
J. Peavy

</TD><TD></TD><TD>-106</TD><TD></TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>910</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
T. Lilly

</TD><TD></TD><TD>-102</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>911</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates
P. Maholm

</TD><TD>+1.5 -158</TD><TD>+135</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:15 PM</TD><TD>912</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
T. Wellemeyer

</TD><TD>-1.5 +148</TD><TD>-143</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>913</TD><TD>Colorado Rockies
J. De La Rosa

</TD><TD>+1.5 -142</TD><TD>+144</TD><TD>OVER 10 +104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>06:40 PM</TD><TD>914</TD><TD>Arizona D-Backs
M. Owings

</TD><TD>-1.5 +132</TD><TD>-152</TD><TD>UNDER 10 -114</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>Houston Astros
B. Moehler

</TD><TD>-1.5 +145</TD><TD>-115</TD><TD>OVER 9 +104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:15 PM</TD><TD>916</TD><TD>San Francisco Giants
P. Misch

</TD><TD>+1.5 -155</TD><TD>+107</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -114</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>917</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
C. Silva

</TD><TD>+1.5 -170</TD><TD>+116</TD><TD>OVER 10.5 +113</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>11:05 AM</TD><TD>918</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
S. Feldman

</TD><TD>-1.5 +160</TD><TD>-124</TD><TD>UNDER 10.5 -123</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>919</TD><TD>Boston Red Sox
J. Lester

</TD><TD>-1.5 +136</TD><TD>-118</TD><TD>OVER 9 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>12:05 PM</TD><TD>920</TD><TD>Baltimore Orioles
D. Cabrera

</TD><TD>+1.5 -146</TD><TD>+110</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>921</TD><TD>Oakland Athletics
J. Blanton

</TD><TD>+1.5 -147</TD><TD>+146</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +113</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>922</TD><TD>Cleveland Indians
C. Sabathia

</TD><TD>-1.5 +137</TD><TD>-154</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -123</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>923</TD><TD>New York Yankees
M. Mussina

</TD><TD>+1.5 -165</TD><TD>+125</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>924</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Rays
J. Shields

</TD><TD>-1.5 +155</TD><TD>-133</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -114</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>925</TD><TD>Detroit Tigers
J. Verlander

</TD><TD>-1.5 +128</TD><TD>-130</TD><TD>OVER 9 +102</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:10 PM</TD><TD>926</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
L. Hochevar

</TD><TD>+1.5 -138</TD><TD>+122</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -112</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>927</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
R. Halladay

</TD><TD>-1.5 +141</TD><TD>-130</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 +102</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:10 PM</TD><TD>928</TD><TD>Minnesota Twins
B. Bonser

</TD><TD>+1.5 -151</TD><TD>+122</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 -112</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 5/14</TD><TD>929</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
J. Contreras

</TD><TD>+1.5 -159</TD><TD>+127</TD><TD>OVER 9 +113</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>930</TD><TD>LAA Angels
J. Lackey

</TD><TD>-1.5 +149</TD><TD>-135</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -123</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
:cheers:

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>2:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Seattle at Texas
Home Plate Umpire: Timmons, Tim
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Carlos Silva
Scott Feldman
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>3:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Boston at Baltimore
Home Plate Umpire: Bell, Wally
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Jon Lester
Daniel Cabrera
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Oakland at Cleveland
Home Plate Umpire: Meals, Jerry
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Joe Blanton
C.C. Sabathia
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Home Plate Umpire: Drake, Rob
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Mike Mussina
James Shields
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Toronto at Minnesota
Home Plate Umpire: Runge, Brian
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Roy Halladay
Boof Bonser
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Detroit at Kansas City
Home Plate Umpire: Montague, Ed
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Justin Verlander
Luke Hochevar
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Chi. White Sox at LA Angels
Home Plate Umpire: Welke, Tim
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Jose Contreras
John Lackey
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Atlanta at Philadelphia
Home Plate Umpire: Marquez, Alfonso
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Tom Glavine
Brett Myers
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Florida at Cincinnati
Home Plate Umpire: Vanover, Larry
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Ricky Nolasco
Bronson Arroyo
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Washington at NY Mets
Home Plate Umpire: DeMuth, Dana
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Tim Redding
N/A
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Dodgers at Milwaukee
Home Plate Umpire: Hoye, James
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Derek Lowe
Manny Parra
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Diego at Chi. Cubs
Home Plate Umpire: Wendelstedt, Hunter
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Jake Peavy
Ted Lilly
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:15 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Home Plate Umpire: Cooper, Eric
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Paul Maholm
Todd Wellemeyer
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>9:40 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Colorado at Arizona
Home Plate Umpire: Johnson, Adrian
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Jorge De La Rosa
Micah Owings
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:15 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Houston at San Francisco
Home Plate Umpire: Davis, Gerry
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Brian Moehler
Patrick Misch
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Initial leans, as always subject to change based on actual research.

Marlins
I don't think they get swept by the Reds. While the Marlins were certainly due to come back down to this planet, they still should be able to take a game.
D'backs RL
These guys just love beating up on Colorado. They also have the better pitcher.
Rays
Momentum is big for young teams.
A's
They own Sabathia. This game should be -110 but it's a steal at +140 ish.
 
Good stuff Music ...

Think its going to be hard to pass on Texas. Feldman has been solid think SEA is somewhere around 230 on the road vs RHP and only 6-14 I think away. Silva's past few starts @ Texas have been bloodshed and Silva has always been a risky road option.

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/21/07</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) @ TEX</TD><TD class=datacell>4-14</TD><TD class=datacell>121/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>4.1</TD><TD class=datacell>9</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>7 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>88 </TD><TD class=datacell>20.3 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.67</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD><TD class=datacell></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/07/06</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) @ TEX</TD><TD class=datacell>4-9</TD><TD class=datacell>119/11</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>1.2</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>5 </TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>36 </TD><TD class=datacell>21.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/09/06</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) @ TEX</TD><TD class=datacell>15-5</TD><TD class=datacell>168/10.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>11</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>82 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.89</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Hard to disagree with any of your points so far...BOL....:cheers:
 
Haven't done any research yet myself, but initial thoughts...

- Assume that Lackey will be on a short lease and a bit rusty, like the over in ChiSox/Angels.

- Glavine has been horrible lately and Myers has some nice value with the Phillies, especially with the Braves in a road game.

- KC and Hochevar has value at home versus Verlander. Although KC is pretty free swinging and I could see Verlander having his first big day of the season.
 
One thing I have noticed in the last 5 or 6 days is that solid home teams have just been on fire so going to look at the above .500 teams tonight and most likely jump on a few of these no matter what.

Well the Marlins will be in for 4 games so this is only game 3 of 4 but one thing I noticed as I watched all of Bronson's last start is that he has the slowww breaking ball back. He wasn't using it early in the year for some reason but he really had the Mets off balance the whole night and for the first time this year looked like he could throw any pitch in any count, which is huge for him. Keppinger is a going to be a huge loss for that lineup and my initial lean would be under 10.5 in that one but have to look further into Nollasco.

Angels look cheap making his first start of the season and you have to believe he will be on some sort of pitch count so I will monitor the use of the Angel bullpen tonight. Anytime I can fade Contrares on the road I don't normally pass it up.

Brett Myers has been pretty solid at home this year
1st start on opening day 5 innings 3 earned
4/11 vs Chicago 8 innings 3 earned
4/17 vs Houston 7 innings 1 earned and 8 K's
5/3 vs SF 7 innings 2 earned and 10 K's

I know he has struggled on the road but really seems like a different pitcher at home and this lineup for Philidelphia with a healthy J-Roll and the flyin Hawaiin really sets the table for the best player in the league. Howard also crushed 2 balls last night and think he may finally be figuring it out.


Also like the Rays think they are a little overpriced but they are hot as hell and doing it in every aspect right now.
 
Cabrera off a 9 Inn CG possibly flat here . Kinda said I have to say that but you know the deal these days ...anyway BALT has lost 9 of his past 10 starts vs Boston despite some good outings. Lester was real sharp vs them in 2007. Boston's last game of the trip and off three losses and 4 of 5 and 5 of 7 so I think they wantto get a WIN before the head home.

<LI class=morehot>Red Sox are 8-1 in Lesters last 9 starts vs. American League East. <LI class=morehot>Red Sox are 8-1 in Lesters last 9 starts with 4 days of rest. <LI class=morehot>Red Sox are 5-1 in Lesters last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Red Sox are 9-2 in Lesters last 11 starts as a favorite. <LI class=morehot>Red Sox are 17-4 in Lesters last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record.<LI class=more>Orioles are 7-19 in their last 26 games vs. a left-handed starter. <LI class=more>Orioles are 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 2-10 in their last 12 Wednesday games. <LI class=morecool>Orioles are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter.<LI class=more>Orioles are 5-11 in Cabreras last 16 starts as a home underdog. <LI class=more>Orioles are 4-9 in Cabreras last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=more>Orioles are 3-7 in Cabreras last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. <LI class=more>Orioles are 2-6 in Cabreras last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=more>Orioles are 3-11 in Cabreras last 14 Wednesday starts.<LI class=more>Red Sox are 54-22 in the last 76 meetings in Baltimore. <LI class=more>Red Sox are 40-18 in the last 58 meetings:shake:
 
was thinking the same thing Nut...Cabrera was so good last time out that it may be hard to duplicate that outing. Also like the fact Boston lost tonight so will look for an angle to play Boston or possibly under


Oh yea in the previous post I said Utley was the best player in the league but if he is 1, Chipper Jones is 1A the guy is absolutely on fire right now
 
Just a little tidbit about Arroyo;

Pitching on 3 days rest after throwing 115 pitches against the Mets.

Twice this year he's thrown over 102 pitches.
April 18th he threw 116 pitches against MLW
NEXT START:
April 23rd vs HOU 3 2/3 IP 10 hits 8ER

April 28th he threw 113 pitches against STL
NEXT START:
May 4th vs ATL 1 1/3 IP 7 hits 7ER

Looking at the same scenario here but with one day less of rest. Not sure how this can work out for him.
 
TB with Shields is probably not a good spot since he is off a 1 hitter and NY needing a win a spot they have done well in to avoid long streaks...they were clueless vs Moose in NY. Also Shields is terrible vs NY and I just looked it up so much worse then I thought 0-6 in 6 starts. Best he has done is losing by 2 runs and best outins 7inn 4 runs twice......being we have Rasner vs Kaz on Thursday and the Yanks inability to score vs LHP this seems lik ethe more probable spot for a WIN for them....

Beware of daing Glavine at NIGHT. He is actually pretty good if you look at the extreme difference.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Day</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15.43</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.43</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.476</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Night</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>24.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>21</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.85</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.27</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.247</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Day</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>39.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>52</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>36</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>33</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.62</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.72</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.319</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Night</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>26</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>26</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>161.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>167</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>66</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>66</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>49</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>72</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.68</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.34</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.271</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Day</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>12</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>12</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>74.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>85</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>37</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>33</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>21</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>49</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.00</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.43</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.291</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Night</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>20</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>20</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>123.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>117</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>57</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>51</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>41</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>82</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.71</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.28</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.252</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl></TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Day</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>13</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>13</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>79.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>96</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>35</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>34</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>26</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>37</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.86</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.54</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.307</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Night</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>20</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>20</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>132.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>131</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>53</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>49</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>35</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>68</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.34</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.26</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.261</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I am not really concerned with ERA as much as BAA when I look at this stuff. When for 3+ years there is a 40+ pt difference I think that is huge.

Myers 2-2 at home so far & Philly has lost 7 of his last 8 starts when favored at home. He is 4-6 L10 vs ATL and 2-4 at home.

Si I hate to say but since no one really seemed aware of the difference in Glavine past few seasons night and day I think I may have to ride ATL. The biggest difference I see is while Myers has been sharper at home its been versus SF , Chi , and Houston teams who really have very little to offer from the LH side. Fukudome has been terrible on the road and Berkman wasnt really hitting at that time ...so the ATL LHB should present a a challenge IMO. Also his velocity is down and that has been a concern due to him throwing his cutter which the staff does not want to see.

Also probably like Contreras and WSox if they lose today...think Lackey has had a few rehabs but I dont recall any SP off the DL winning there 1st start of the season. Only guys who pitched then went on the DL have seen there teams win......Contreras has been solid on the road so far especially his last 3 lasting at least 7 and his career numbers are fairly decent especially compared to lackey who made 4 rehab stats of which 3 came in A ball and the other in extended ST....LAA minus a few bats lately seems to have hurt them...:shake:
 
JPicks said:
Just a little tidbit about Arroyo;

Pitching on 3 days rest after throwing 115 pitches against the Mets.

Twice this year he's thrown over 102 pitches.
April 18th he threw 116 pitches against MLW
NEXT START:
April 23rd vs HOU 3 2/3 IP 10 hits 8ER

April 28th he threw 113 pitches against STL
NEXT START:
May 4th vs ATL 1 1/3 IP 7 hits 7ER

Looking at the same scenario here but with one day less of rest. Not sure how this can work out for him.
Click to expand...

Good catch some work do on this one tmrw...3 days rest with the volume of pitches is the concern ...

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>< 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>5.14</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>7.0</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.276</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>4.64</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>137.2</TD><TD align=right>155</TD><TD align=right>80</TD><TD align=right>71</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>48</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>107</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>.284</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>3.27</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>66.0</TD><TD align=right>69</TD><TD align=right>25</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>40</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.272</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left> <5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>3.38</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>21.1</TD><TD align=left>17</TD><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>8</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>17</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.213</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>9</TD><TD align=left>3.32</TD><TD align=left>22</TD><TD align=left>22</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>151.2</TD><TD align=left>134</TD><TD align=left>61</TD><TD align=left>56</TD><TD align=left>21</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>44</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>117</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>.236</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>3.19</TD><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>67.2</TD><TD align=left>71</TD><TD align=left>27</TD><TD align=left>24</TD><TD align=left>6</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>16</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>50</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>.269</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>< 5 DAYS REST</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>5.06</TD><TD align=left>6</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>21.1</TD><TD align=left>20</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>9</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>.244</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 DAYS REST</TD><TD align=left>9</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>4.15</TD><TD align=left>17</TD><TD align=left>17</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>108.1</TD><TD align=left>106</TD><TD align=left>52</TD><TD align=left>50</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>6</TD><TD align=left>33</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>56</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>.258</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 DAYS REST</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>4.88</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>75.2</TD><TD align=left>87</TD><TD align=left>52</TD><TD align=left>41</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>16</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>35</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>.282


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>< 5 DAYS REST</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>4.70</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>15.1</TD><TD align=left>17</TD><TD align=left>8</TD><TD align=left>8</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>14</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.288</TD></TR><TR class=bg4 align=left><TD>Category</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>G</TD><TD>GS</TD><TD>CG</TD><TD>SHO</TD><TD>SV</TD><TD>SVO</TD><TD>INN</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD>HBP</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>IBB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>CS</TD><TD>PK</TD><TD>BK</TD><TD>WP</TD><TD>AVG</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 DAYS REST</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>3.93</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>73.1</TD><TD align=left>68</TD><TD align=left>37</TD><TD align=left>32</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>16</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>56</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>.242</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 DAYS REST</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>4.00</TD><TD align=left>16</TD><TD align=left>15</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>90.0</TD><TD align=left>86</TD><TD align=left>54</TD><TD align=left>40</TD><TD align=left>11</TD><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>27</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>72</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>.247</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Actually had a fair amount of short rest starts in his career .........have to try and find them tmrw..... Arroyo is kinda rubber arm guy..

Good find bro.....:cheers::shake:
 
Also will probably ride LAD and Lowe. Last year he wasnt very good vs them and in 2006 he was excellent across 2 starts vs them. Big issue with Lowe now is getting out LHB and he wont face many in Milw and Price Fiedler last I checked was struggling still....the flip is LAD gets to face a LHP in Parra...LAD is 9-3 vs LHSP avg 7 runs per game compared to 10-16 vs RHP.....:shake:
 
-Cabrera looks nice without Francona, but the Red Sox do dominate the Orioles usually each season from start to finish.


-I really like Feldman at home for the Rangers, and I won a big underdog bet on the Athletics earlier in the year when they whooped the Indians at the Jake with C.C. on the mound.

-Shields has been dominant, which makes me think that will continue despite facing a very good, and lefty-dominated NYY lineup. They're hot, and with Mussina on the mound it makes me think the Rays are a good play. I'm very surprised to see them as a favorite though, but maybe that's past history playing in my mind.
 
I havent been around much past 2 days only posted Philly this evening I think but I have made great strides so far in sloppiness. Something I was talking about the other day in the discussion thread . Sure I made some mistakes but hey who doesnt. Although I dont think I made much dough in MLB this evening but still happy with the results so far past 2 days. I got hurt with Mariners and Over 2units each cost me 5 units after vig and then lost COL and under 9 dropping 2 .15 units or slightly more then 7 on 2 games.. Otherwise hit Philly ML, Brewers ML and 1st 5 ML , KC ML , over 9 pitt , Under 8.5 LAA , SFG for 2 units , SFG -1.5+170 and 2 smaller plays hit SFG 1st 5 over and SFG 1st 5 ML...losing just over 12.5 SD and Over 8 SFG...so actually won just about 2 units in bases...did well in the NBA..1st Q SA , 1st H SA for 2 , under 187 but lost SA +5 game. So picked up about 3 units and then 2nd H had under small and parlayed NO and under to make 2 units combined...so 2units and 5 units aint so bad.....when nothing really stood out... on and 2 units on Orlando as well...its crazy how much I have going on a light day for me....2 days deep 30-17 +13 units tad more actually..and 1-1 on parlays up about 3/4 unit.....so nearly 50 plays in 2 days !!!!!! and this is slow and steady.....but +14 units is enough for me......

Just thought I share that since we have different appproaches and still probably have similiar problems....:shake:
 
two aces extremely underpriced tomorrow, and looking at both.

halladay at -130 against BOOFY
peavy at -106 up against lilly.

gota get some sleep shortly though, leavin for AC at 10.

i think the o's and daniel cabrera who is finally coming of age, are definitely wortha shot tomorrow as slight dogs as well....it's taken 4 years and later then expected but he's finally coming around.

as a local ive noticed cabrera is actually a big dude. 6'7, and he throws over the top, giving him a huge release. kind of reminds me of a cliff lee.
his fastball is in the mid 90s, and his command is getting a lot better too.
coming off a shutout/CG outing in KC, in which he gave up 3 hits, only 1 walk, and k'ing 7. ya gotta like cabrera tomorrow over lester.

cabrera just basically overpowers hitters. he's a beast. i wouldnt want to be at the plate.
 
thanks for keep this going SN, nice edit there for the UMPS. I've been taking a break since the end of school and hitting a slump, figured it was a good time to relax


didn't really do much research for these

KC
I guess I can understand the line with it being Verlander and KC bats but still think this has value as a dog. I get +116 and for some reason thats much less appealing than +122.

COL/AZ OVER 10
With the way Owings has pitched as of late, De La Rosa facing a team that can hit LHP, they've slumped as of late but got some momentum yesterday and probably would hope to keep it going vs another LHP. De La Rosa was Carmona-esq last year with the day/night splits and has continued that this year. Owings has pitched fine vs the Rockies in two previous starts vs the Rox but allowed some unearned runs in a games.

WAS
haven't really looked into this much but it jumped out at me with Vargas on the hill.

FLA
Fade Arroyo anytime
 
Looking at my 3rd Cards Over in 3 days
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Maholm
- Away: ERA 9.59, WHIP 2.13 (O/U 3-0)
- Home: ERA 2.05, WHIP 1.02 (O/U 1-3)

- vs STL last season (both home games): ERA 3.27, WHIP 1.54


Wellemeyer
- vs Pitt: started against them once last season, late Sept when Pitt was finishing the season 2-13 SU (avg 3.1 runs in losses), so no overt suprise he went 6 inns for 1 ER. This season (roadie), 6 inns for 4 ER (went Over).

- his 4 starts STL has won: averages 8.00 runs of support, O/U 3-1 (sole Under went under by .5 of a run).

- is off his first scoreless start this season. Has an ERA of 5.21 off decent starts (ERA 3 or less) this season (however, all have been road games. Yet to make a home start off such a previous effort - Wednesday is it).


Ump Cooper
- is O/U 2-4 this season with a seemingly worrying 63.1 strike %. But over the last 6 seasons is O/U 106-95 with a 62.8 strike %. His games (through recent seasons) always seem to avg 290+ pitches and north of 2.1 HRs, both obviously always positive signs for Overs and the inertia to his strike %. Probably best described as a neutral aspect here.



With Maholm's road woes and STL off a longish skid (1-6 SU L7), I lean Over here thinking of a STL break-out-of-a-funk effort. When they win for Wellemeyer they've delivered the runs thus far, and they have Maholm at the right venue for it.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has scored less than 3 runs just once in 8 games (while going 7-1 SU), and has conceded less than 3 runs just once in their last 9 road games. Basically 3 runs apiece here (for starters) when dealing with an 8.5 total? certainly couldn't think Under, too little room to win with. Also, Pitt off a road win then facing the same opponent, is 3-0 to Over, games averaging 14.00 runs.

I'll want to see weather and odds/line situation, but I think this could be a reverse score from Tuesday - Cards by 8-4/9-3.
 
VanOVER in FLA/CIN. 10.5 is an awfully high # though. looks like itll drop to 10. Weather looks nasty for tomorrow night though w/ 80% chance of rain/thunder storms
 
Phillie game is interesting. On 1 side you have a homer ump and a Atlanta team that seems to just lose on the road and lose with Glavine. On the other side Myers is 3-9 last 12 at home and they seem to win with him usually against garbage and top pitchers. Glavine being the intermediate case he loses to. There is an odd angle here. Phillies in game 2 at home of a 3 game or longer series are currently 1-5 with all 6 games going under. Under is 7-2 in his 9 home games where he went 4-5 vs Atlanta. Atlanta on the road on Wednesday 6-14 su and 7-13 under. Phillie at home on Wednesday 0-3 this season 10-10 last 20 and 13-7 under. Very small bet on Atlanta and a real bet on the under.
 
I think there are better games on the board than Phils/Braves in which I wouldn't be shocked by any result. Atlanta has been awful on the road and Myers has been all over the place this season, but better at home. One angle that might favor the Braves is that Romero pitched close to 20 pitches last night and Lidge didn't have much control and threw 25 pitches. I just see no reason to get involved in that game.
 
Seattle has been gobbling on donkey balls, and they will continue... full fade mode

Lowe is overpriced (as usual this season) so I am looking hard at Parra and the Brew Crew at home.

Damn! I did not think Tampa & Shields would be this big of a favorite over the Skankees and Moose. But, TB has everything going for them right now and Shields is their most talented pitcher, so I will have to give it consideration.

The under seems logical at Wrigley, but I am not good with totals.
 
I think Renew may be on the money regarding Vargas. First inning had no game logs for him!! In 2007 when he pitched in the minors he had an era of 4.97. It seems very likely he is just being used to adjust their rotation for the Yankees. A first half bet on Washington looks very reasonable.
 
Off topic, Covers did not put up their umpire info yesterday. I called them as well as e-mailing them. They still have not put anything up today. My guess is there is some real problem they are unwilling to explain but more calls from other people might help get this specialized info back so if you have a telephone----
 
whats up ya'll. sn, it appears that you are killing the mlb. i hope to get more insight from you if you have the time of course. i agree with tuck & sn on my only mlb plays today. i have under 10 phi/atl , i have LAD, & also texas. may look into that contreras later on.
 
I see the Texas line coming back down and not sure what to make of it. Seattle has been flat out awful in May goin just 2-11 to start the month. Both teams have the day off tomorrow so interested to see how each manager plays this one, got to figure the M's want to avoid the sweep and win on getaway day. There young kids aren't hitting and the bullpen is worn down looks like Texas in a rout....

I am waiting for lineups but I will either be on Seattle or the Over
 
Forget what I said about Vargas. Covers had Jason Vargas up and I believe the pitcher is Claudio Vargas.
 
Good stuff everyone. Pressed for time again this afternoon so dont think I can get back till bit later on and even then I have to play hoops at 7 . So who knows how much I get to look at this stuff.

Quickly ...

Jimbo- I am happy with just about everything of late except the amount of profit. Meaning capping , situational analysis and results. To many times have I rushed decisions and I dont necessarily mean plays but how I stagger the sizes and really cost me to much on a game. Talked about some last week how I could just look at the day by day charts and see how much I pissed away despite pretty lofty winning%...which is clearly a big part of the equation but if your not flat waggering possibly even more important is how you stagger. Clearest example was Thursday when I went 11-1 and think +13 units but 3 games that I sort of talked myself into loving I lost whatever plays I associated with them at least a good 0-6 and 0-7 on really what should have been just 3 plays maybe 4. Then the killer was that group of 3 games cost me 19 units...

Anyway feel free to fire any questions anyway...I try to answer to the best of my ability and understanding ...and honestly...GL jimbo:shake:


Everyone else....Really appreciate the info and different contributionsfrom multiple posters. Keeps it fun and interesting helps me see alot of different things I might miss and angles especially with what Tuck provides that I would never even think of. So I prefer this rather then me starting a thread to post my picks. All I care about is winning and hopefully helping other people see games clearer whether its agreeing with my opinions on games or disagreeing with my opinion. I am to old to care bout trying to make everyone agree with me or my plays...the best thing is to provide opinions and let people make there own choices...If I feel strongly about something I am sure its not hard to figure that out through my postings...and probably my persistent comments...

So it doesnt matter who starts the thread as long as we keep it going with our indivual opinions...and even if dont comment on someone's specific post or comments as far as with me I read everything in the thread and honestly after I post something I rarely read it again. So after I say my peace I am spending my time reading and thinking about what you guys are saying in here. So dont think if I dont respond to a post or comment I am not interested in it. I just have alot of action once the card starts and its hard to do so many things like respond to every point / post when I have to figure out exactly what I want to play and how to play it. For me I dont locking plays in early cause price is the smallest factor for me but still how many times do I play a big favorite? I rather gather as much as info as possible. Thats me though....

Perfect examples are alot of the stuff Tuck posts I like to research but dont always get to comment on. Once games start I dont really like talking about them I guess thats my supersition. So if I talk about things after the fact its discussional purposes only( and learning from a loss or reiterating something I thought was key) and I dont want to really start talking about a game where anything is possible like its finished well till its finished. Also yesterday was a good example my internet connection went on the fritz around 7 PM so putting plays in was troublesome and so posting cant really happen. I read think it was Music City's comments about the Yankee game the previous night and how they looked flat and that kept off them which I didnt want to say yesterday when it was 0-0 , TB 1-0 , then tied ...so I read it all and take it all into account...AND if it wasnt Music City who posted that tidbit I apologize to who did its who I thought did...

So wont be around till later and not sure about what I am playing tonight.

The two day games I lean both favs.

I know the Texas line dropped 20 cents but all the games this series have seen at least 20 cent moves in FAVOR of SEATTLE if I recall correctly...which has happened here again and actually same deal with recent Boston games...

So simply I know people get caught in betting % and theories but I think you always must understand and make educated guesses why lines are moving . Remember the term sharp is just that a term its not some exclussive club that recruits people who hit 100%...it simply a term ...like whale....

Anyway I hate laying chalk in sweep games especially divisional but its so hard to an edge w/o seeing lineups....

Silva terrible past 3 @ Arlington and despite his improvement in road starts in 2008 his past few season where Ervin Santana LIKE. In his career he seems to pitch very well at home vs Texas and the opposite especially of late @ Texas.

Silva struggles vs LHB at 321 which Texas has alot of. Also .294 last year . In 2007 5 AWAY ERA compared to 3.50 at home. In 06 and 07 his day splits were pretty bad ...

Mariners are 2-11 in May while Texas is 10-3 ...Sexson absence leaves Cairo at 1st which no matter how BAD Sexson is Cairo is a pretty drastic drop at this point in his career. Neither team plays well in day games 4-7 Sea vs 4-9 Texas...

M's dropped 7 straight away ...theer day splist are wek but guys liek Wilkerson , Sexson and Vidro where some of the biggest failures so interested to see if that can change....last year including Sexson they had 6 regulars who didnt crack 250 in day games and most where closer to 200 then 250...Lopez , Beltre , Ibanez , Betancourt , Johijima and sexson...so seems like this is a pattern....M's pen has been terrible as well...

In Balt the O's rallied and won...Mora and hernandez where absent which is even bigger when facing a LHSP IMO.

Lesters big weakness has been Base on Balls to RHB...xlearly he has been much better at home then away but its nice to see his 2 days starts which were home have been his best..

Orioles just 3-10 in day games but 11-2 UNDER ! se them as 3-5 vs LHP but 42-69 since the start of 2006...
Adam Jones 152 , Hernandez 167 Mora 170 in day games the latter being questionable...Millar 204 Payton 6-28 but solid vs LH inhis career , Marakis 235 ...so alot of weak spots...Quiroz if he plasy 207 career hitter so far.....

red Sox 302 in day games with Ortis the lowest regular at 250..well that is assuming Drew is out since he left yesterday @ 226 and Lowell getting a mini pass since he is 2-18 ...not many atbats ...one good day quickly changes that...not sure if Varitek catches but I think the lineup is about 36-87 agsinst Cabrera check that assuming Cora plays for Lugo at SS....

So use this as references to what I already posted....:cheers:GL...probably a bit more interested in BOSTON then Texas might still play both...
 
Yeah Vargas is the ex Brewer and Dback ( maybe Marlin as well dont recall)...would research how much work he has had since signing as he went to ST and was a suprise I believe late cut by them.....

and Boston ws 7-5 in days games and 65-41 since 2006...also 23-9 on grass and 1-9 in domes ...
 
Being a Ranger local, I have been riding their hot streak and am on them again today. They just seem to have a shot of energy lately and the AL West competition is just not that stiff. Nothing really surprises me with this Ranger's offense, but I actually heard on local radio that when Ramon Vazquez is in the lineup the team is like 10 games over .500 over the last year or so. Not sure why that is, but it's an angle. Seattle has an old, punchless lineup and the Rangers seem very motivated to win at all costs after that ridiculous Sexson incident.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Looking at my 3rd Cards Over in 3 days
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Maholm
- Away: ERA 9.59, WHIP 2.13 (O/U 3-0)
- Home: ERA 2.05, WHIP 1.02 (O/U 1-3)

- vs STL last season (both home games): ERA 3.27, WHIP 1.54


Wellemeyer
- vs Pitt: started against them once last season, late Sept when Pitt was finishing the season 2-13 SU (avg 3.1 runs in losses), so no overt suprise he went 6 inns for 1 ER. This season (roadie), 6 inns for 4 ER (went Over).

- his 4 starts STL has won: averages 8.00 runs of support, O/U 3-1 (sole Under went under by .5 of a run).

- is off his first scoreless start this season. Has an ERA of 5.21 off decent starts (ERA 3 or less) this season (however, all have been road games. Yet to make a home start off such a previous effort - Wednesday is it).


Ump Cooper
- is O/U 2-4 this season with a seemingly worrying 63.1 strike %. But over the last 6 seasons is O/U 106-95 with a 62.8 strike %. His games (through recent seasons) always seem to avg 290+ pitches and north of 2.1 HRs, both obviously always positive signs for Overs and the inertia to his strike %. Probably best described as a neutral aspect here.



With Maholm's road woes and STL off a longish skid (1-6 SU L7), I lean Over here thinking of a STL break-out-of-a-funk effort. When they win for Wellemeyer they've delivered the runs thus far, and they have Maholm at the right venue for it.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has scored less than 3 runs just once in 8 games (while going 7-1 SU), and has conceded less than 3 runs just once in their last 9 road games. Basically 3 runs apiece here (for starters) when dealing with an 8.5 total? certainly couldn't think Under, too little room to win with. Also, Pitt off a road win then facing the same opponent, is 3-0 to Over, games averaging 14.00 runs.

I'll want to see weather and odds/line situation, but I think this could be a reverse score from Tuesday - Cards by 8-4/9-3.
Click to expand...

Excellent info, I think Pujols sits out though, and the Redbirds have been in a scoring funk. Maholm is horrid on the road so you may win your money regardlessly.

SN, great work here every night. :cheers:
 
Will be playing WS tonight first half and game. Just a little on under first 5.
Reasons are varied. Contreras is a very lucky pitcher on the road Wednesdays. Good ump for a road dog. History of the pitchers to teams. Covers chart where they are 7-2 and 4-1 off a loss though Angels are also good but not as good off a loss. Angels used their best relievers yesterday. Lackey maybe not so sharp first game vs a team he has had trouble with. Just doubt the WS want to have to get off a 4 game sweep playing Garland tomorrow. Also note Contreras has been very good on 4 days this year. Its the games off 4 days where he has had problems. GL
 
Taking Houston. I have a deal going. As long as Misch agrees to lose every game I intend to cooperate and bet against him. Good home team disliking ump. Houston plays the staff ace for SF tomorrow and then the Battle for the Silver Boot begins which may reduce their interest in Thursdays game.
 
The Rangers give up their league leading 30th and 31st unearned run to blow the lead. 13.6% of their runs are unearned, only zona has a bigger percentage.
 
Ironically it was Vazquez, who I mentioned above as a common denominator in many of their wins over the last year plus.
 
In the Cardinal game I bet over 4.5 first 5. Paul has taken it over 4.5 by himself in all 3 road games this season and at least his previous 2 from last on the road. Todd has started 4 home games this season and all 4 went over 4.5 in the first 5 innings.
 
KC ml. This is a legitimate home dog play. KC after a win has a win rate of .500. Detroit after a loss .391. Montaque the Home ump in the last 3 years has gone 11-4 for home dogs. Luke after Baltimore got him for the 3 spot pitched 4 more scoreless innings which is a very good sign. Not seeing any plus for Verlander except history. Not seeing any plus for Detroit which goes with the closest thing to a staff ace tomorrow against a sick puppy Meche.
 
I am reluctantly adding Toronto ml first 5. Halladay played in the first 5 this season on the road was 4-0-1 in his 5 road games. Played for the game the result was 1-4. Minn is an excellent home team but missing a starting pitcher today. By the way, where is everyone. No one else is talking. Discussion means an exchange of views. Me just talking is honestly boring as I am sure many will agree.
 
I'm rummaging through what makes for an Over in Cleveland. Tribe has gone 4 straight games conceding nothing in the 1st 9 inns, and now we have the match-up that's seen 16 & 10 runs scored the last 2 times they've squared off against one another.

Ump is good, so is weather. Still looking.
 
While I am rambling by myself I will say if I was playing the Cub game I would play the Cubs. I have zero interest in either side of the Brewer game. Mostly feel both teams should be given to an orphanage and Lowe in his last 6 road starts-----. I know most of you like Oakland and you may be right. Obviously I am not a Blanton fan and the difference in the 2 pitchers last 4 is very large. Still 8-1 is a strong argument would have liked to hear more on this game. I might play Arizona. Still thinking. Have no idea what is right with Florida and the Reds. GL
 
certainly dont find what you guys contribute boring. I dontt have any value to my info, but you can bet there are readers here with you.
 
In the 1st 9 inns of their last 7 games, Cleveland has conceded 7 runs total. Which is absurd, no pitching staff can keep that shit up in this era of watered down talent.

Its pretty clear Cleveland's run of recent Under results (10-1 L11) heavily informs this 8.0 line.

Who could back Over in the face of such facts? me.

I'll bite small on Over 7.5
 
Addding 2 more bets. Tailing BC on that over and the Nationals. Bottom line while I actually respect Claudio Vargas and in the past he has been a good home starter his warm up was not pretty and I think the Mets who are not well run may be fixating on the Yankee match up. Mostly just a general fade of Valentin with a decent National team.
 
tuck321 said:
Addding 2 more bets. Tailing BC on that over and the Nationals. Bottom line while I actually respect Claudio Vargas and in the past he has been a good home starter his warm up was not pretty and I think the Mets who are not well run may be fixating on the Yankee match up. Mostly just a general fade of Valentin with a decent National team.
Click to expand...

Valentin who? you mean Willie Randolph
 
Good stuff fellas. Sorry that I could not contribute today as I just got home late and had to sort of look at things quickly and decide what to play at 7 and 8 PM before I left to play hoops...I would say that I basically stuck to my comments from yesterday/ last night...and shit start in the afternoon losing both Boston and Texas after they led after 5 innings...a split would have been fine instead 0-2 -2.50units to start the day..with more then a bunch pending...

Let ya know If I dig up anything for the West Coast stuff...:cheers:
 
:shake:I may be interested in backing DeLaRosa since it seems to have gone unnoticed that he is pitching versus the franchise that signed him. I cant recall the deal that sent him to Milw but I could swear it had something to do with the Schilling deal...certainly a nice motivational edge and as I said recently when Zona faced Lilly that ARI stats vs LHP arent as good as they appear. True the most damage has been down vs COL but more Redman and Francis now 3 times then say Morales...Micah certainly pitched better last time out but he still didnt get a win which is interesting....really DeLaRosa is a unknown and look at what Estes did yesterday...being LH is very valuable.....something I am contemplating...might have been a different game yesterday if Francis doesnt put them down 6-0 after 2 innings
 
I rolled with COL ML ,1st 5 Inn ML and small 1st 5 under 5.5...figured good spot with Webb ondeck..though tmrw could be a nice COL spot as well:cheers:
 
any opinion on the LAA game? As stated in ckr's thread, Welkes suggests an under, but I have a peculiar feeling that contreras is going to get lit...
 
Trueblue said:
any opinion on the LAA game? As stated in ckr's thread, Welkes suggests an under, but I have a peculiar feeling that contreras is going to get lit...
Click to expand...

My feeling is there is no pitcher especially SP that is as streaky as Contreras .. I feel he is going good at the moment and has been since his 3rd start of the year and look for that to continue....also I am using the fade the SP making his season debut theory...

So for play little les then 1 unit on 1st 5 innings ML and lil more then a unit on the ML full game for CHICAGO....

Plus the fact Contreras has been better in his career vs his opposition compared to Lackey....

Not sure about the total as CHI is stranding alot of runners and Lackey is a ? mark to some degree....also thought about WSox +1.5 but not sure...:cheers:
 
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