Wave's 2014 NFL Season

Wave88

Pretty much a regular
Hey all,

I have been following the forum for a while and really enjoy the insight. I plan to post my plays this year along with some thoughts.

Teams on the rise:
Houston Texans - I expect to see something closer to the 12-4 texans from 2012 (whom I thought were overrated) than the 2-14 texans from last year. The texans -20 turnover differential coupled with out-gaining opponents by 15 ypg in 2013 indicate that some bad luck could have been in play and the team will return to better form. Love the addition of Clowney (the DLine could be scary good). Don't get me wrong, the team has some major issues on offense, but I think ditching schaub was the right move and the D should be able to carry them to some wins.

Cleveland Browns - terrible reputation but I think they will really surprise. Love the defense and if Flash somehow gets off his suspension the offense could be very respectable. Expect a much improved running game led by rookie Terrance West and a very solid line. This team had 5 all-pros last year (think chiefs in 2012), and out-gained opponents by 8ypg last year despite their 4-12 record. If you can get past the fact that they are the browns, you'll see quite a bit of upside and factors trending in the right direction. I worry about the WR position with Hawkins as the only bright spot in Gordon's absence.

Rams - The addition of Aaron Donald and Greg Robinson should have a major impact on both sides of the LOS. The rams D could be a force this year, it's too bad they play in such a tough division. This is a do or die year for Bradfraud, so if he can play solid football this team could take the next step. Thanks to the RG3 trade they've been able to load up on young talent on both sides of the ball.

Teams on the Decline:
Cowboys - the defense could be an absolute joke this season, especially with the loss of Lee. Romo is coming off back surgery, and most of all, they are the Cowboys. Could get ugly in "Big D" in 2014.

more to come...
 
Futures in play:
Bears +3800 -- 5Dimes $100 to win $3800
Texans +6000 -- 5Dimes $50 to win $3000

Early leans:
Houston -2.5 -- See above on Hou. Washington has a new coaching staff and can't see their run heavy attack having a lot of success on the stout Hou run D. Washington's D is soft enough to give up some scores to Houston's weaker O.
49ers -4 -- See above. Cowboys D will be HORRIBLE and they have no HFA
Cleveland +6 -- would love to get 7. Not a fan of Pitt and think Browns can keep it close
Bears -6 -- Buffalo has some key losses on D and not sure how they stop high powered Chicago attack. Can Buffalo O capitalize on weak but improved Chicago D?
 
Unit = $100, all plays 1 unit unless otherwise indicated
Lines from 5Dimes unless otherwise indicated

Plays so far:
Texans -2.5 -120
Det/NYG OV 46 x2
Chicago -6

Leans:
Cleveland +6 -- waiting on Gordon news, if positive will also play Cleveland +650 to win AFC North. His presence fills a major weakness for them on offense and is a complete gamechanger, making will inevitably be a one dimensional offense much more dynamic.
SF -4.5 -- cowboys injuries piling up on an already WEAK D. Don't love SF out of the gate this season either but I think they will be able to score at will against this team.
Bucs +1
 
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Bucs +1, rationale to follow:

Futures:
Cleveland Cavaliers to win NBA title +1600 risking $200
Chicago Bulls to win NBA title +800 risking $200
UCLA to win NCAA Football Championship +2500 risking $100
Chicago Bears to win Super Bowl +3800 risking $100
Houston Texans to win Super Bowl +6000 risking $50
 
Plays so far:
Texans -2.5 -120
Det/NYG OV 46 x2
Chicago -6
Bucs +1

updated Leans:
SF
Cleveland (Gordon news will determine size of the play)


Futures:
Cleveland Cavaliers to win NBA title +1600 risking $200
Chicago Bulls to win NBA title +800 risking $200
UCLA to win NCAA Football Championship +2500 risking $100
Chicago Bears to win Super Bowl +3800 risking $100
Houston Texans to win Super Bowl +6000 risking $50
 
Additional Futures thoughts:
Would like to hit the Saints to win the Super Bowl but hoping for a better number than +1400. Despite my location, I am not a Saints fan. I am a Bears fan (if you couldn't tell by my avatar). I have followed this team closely enough to know how lethal they are at home, and think they can get HFA in the NFC. I think this is the best defense they have had in years, and see no reason for the O to show anything other than improvement this year. Really like their chances.

Ravens +3500 to win the Super Bowl looks really good to me. The AFC is up for grabs, and I think they've got just as good a shot as anyone. Obviously have done it before.
 
Preseason 0-1 -1

Adding
Ravens -120
SF -3.5 (I am not sold on SF this year but I like them in this spot, boys D is atrocious)
 
Plays so far:
Texans -2.5 -120
Det/NYG OV 46 x2
Chicago -6
Bucs +1
Ravens -120
SF -3.5
 
Texans -2.5 -120 W
Det/NYG OV 46 x2
Chicago -6 L
Bucs +1 L
Ravens -120 L
SF -3.5 W
SF/DAL OV 50 L
Oakland +6 W

YTD 3-4 -1.4U
 
Week 1 Results
Texans -2.5 -120 W
Det/NYG OV 46 x2 W
Chicago -6 L
Bucs +1 L
Ravens -120 L
SF -3.5 W
SF/DAL OV 50 L
Oakland +6 W


YTD 4-4 +0.6U
SD +3 Pending

Week 2 Plays
Chicago/SF Over 48 x2
Jax +6
Ravens -2.5

Leans
lions +3
Chicago +7
Browns +7 (likely a no play)
Bengals (waiting, but like the matchup)
Jax/Was OV 43.5
 
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Let me be absolutely clear that I do not think the Titans have any shot at winning the Super Bowl, but I did just take them at 160-1 on 5d. Looking for a hedge opportunity at big time +$.


look at this schedule:
Sep 14 DAL
Sep 21 @CIN
Sep 28 @IND
Oct 5 CLE
Oct 12 JAX
Oct 19 @WSH
Oct 26 HOU
Bye
Nov 9 @BAL
Nov 17 PIT
Nov 23 @PHI
Nov 30 @HOU
Dec 7 NYG
Dec 14 NYJ
Dec 18 @JAX
Dec 28 IND

lots of potential Ws on this slate. Think the # is absurd.
 
Ravens -2.5 W
YTD: 6-4 +2.6U

Week 2 Plays:
Lions +3
Lions +130
Chicago/SF OV 48 x2
Was/Jax OV 43.5
Jax +6
Bengals -5

Leans:
Chicago +7 -- Waiting on injury news w/ wideouts.
Cleveland +7
 
Adding:
6pt Teaser 0.8 U to win 2.5U
UGA (CFB) -.5 / Denver -5.5 / GB -2.5 / Detroit +8.5
 
Getting off Bears/SF Over. Don't like the fact that Alshon/Marshall are both hurt and starting to question how well the Bears will move the ball. Chicago offense runs through those wideouts.

Unless it lands on 48 (I hedged it out at UN 48.5), I will be taking a 0.2U loss.
 
Getting off Bears/SF Over. Don't like the fact that Alshon/Marshall are both hurt and starting to question how well the Bears will move the ball. Chicago offense runs through those wideouts.

Unless it lands on 48 (I hedged it out at UN 48.5), I will be taking a 0.2U loss.

well I got incredibly lucky here
 
Pack PK +105
Bears PK +105
Pack/Det OV 52
Oakland +14.5
Bengals -6 -120



Leans:
Cle PK
Seattle -5
 
Week 2 results:
Lions +3 L
Lions +130 L
Chicago/SF OV 48 x2 -- as stated above, hedged it out with Bears under 48.5, can't believe it hit but won't count toward record as pure luck
Was/Jax OV 43.5 W
Jax +6 L
Bengals -5 W
Chargers +6 W
Pack -7 -120 L
Colts/Philly OV 53 W
Teaser L -0.8

week 2
4-5 -1.2U

YTD 10-9 +1.4U
 
ATL/TB OV 44.5 W
Pack PK +105
Bears PK +105
Pack/Det OV 52
Oakland +14.5
Bengals -6 -120
Teaser 6pt GB+7.5/Chi+7.5/SD+8.5
Chicago +135
SD +115
Seattle -4 -120
Saints -2.5/Cincy +.5 7 pt Teaser x2
 
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