Watchin' them lines




KingKrunked

KingKrunked

Resident Bad Ass
forget baseball, watching lines move should be the national past time!! (possible t-shirt idea!!!)

on my current card (regardless of my previous statements; these are SELECTIVE tails; not blind!)

-%'s current as of 1200am cst 9/15 and based from SI
-wagers placed @ pinny on 9/12
-comparison to current line (right of %) current as of above time
-juice is moving but who the fuck cares (this early)

Min -41.5 (55%) same
SDSU +14 (36%) +13.5
Mich +6 (26%) +4.5
Ore -4.5 (61%) same
Lou -4 (39%) same
Neb +18 (59%) +17.5<---not so good here
Nev -2 (hooker do to plus money) (66%) -3
Clem +4.5 (38%) +4

analysis/summary:

from what i've seen so far (primarily in cbb, but mimicked in cfb) reverse linemovement is GOLDEN! only 2 plays on the board are starting to stand out (but it's still very early for many wagers to be placed.)

*if i was a tout i would say Mich is the "lock of the century" (abcs?)

--this thread is dedicated for my use, primarily, as i will update it until kick off for each game; i am still trying to determine if simple line watching will hit greater than 60%. My next objective is going to try to find a way to slim down the card significantly (i had 3 heart attacks during cbb last season w/ upwards of 30 plays a day!!) I will probably just start watching the big games (big schools, ranked, etc) as these typically have more money on them.

-if anyone has any further insight to this rather simple method of "capping" please indulge me; but after 2 weeks i'm doin just fine.


*************************************************
test these plays out guys....they have been workin but can ONLY be played on friday night (si's market movers)

interperet them to play:
Cinci
Texas
Ariz St
Ucon
Mich<----holy shit!!! should i sell my car and put it on 'em?!?!
(all ats)


S.M.O.D.O.D. play of the week

.-=MICHIGAN=-.:smiley_acbe:
 
Last edited:
the logic (and interpretation) of line movements escapes me...other than more money being on one side.

Good luck with this.
 
redbearde said:
the logic (and interpretation) of line movements escapes me...other than more money being on one side.

Good luck with this.
Click to expand...

just watch bro....

mods:

thanks for giving me my old title back (i just didnt feel that i deserved it)...HOWEVER...on friday 9/15 (in the evening) i will post cfb plays that i would be playing had i more faith in my cfb capping skillz. i will have about 20 plays or so, and if i hit 65% or better, i will be w/ the understanding that capping cfb is as easy as cbb! if i hit 65%+ on my numerous plays, i will be worthy of the "smodod" title:shake:

--the reason for friday post is that my system requires last minute lockings
 
oh, I've watched several guys do this. Pete Rose over on covers seemed to have quite the following.

I'm not telling you that you're wrong. I'm just telling you that I don't get it.

Good Luck
 
:23_5_118:

Letting others have the SMODOD title.

What a great guy.

GL this week.
 
Basically what Pete Rose does can work but will have ups and downs big time. Last year in NFL it didn't work out that great due to the huge amount of chalk that came in.

I like reverse line movement but am more selective. Works better on smaller conferences in college IMO.
 
i remember pete from covers; didnt follow him as i was banned already!

reasoning: we can hardly tell where the money is TRUELY on based upon %'s alone, yet we have a solid assumption! Consider the MICH game this weekend- we have a huge public fade, and the spread is dropping! the assumption (or perhaps fact) is that the people w/ money are betting on MICH (for reasons greater than you and I will ever know.) The $100 players are doing their thing, but the "wise guys/sharps" are the multiple dime players, and it takes A LOT to move a line in the opposite direction when the average joe is already spending his weekly paycheck on the other side! IMO, reverse linemovement is what jesus would follow!
 
I think this can be used as a part of capping a game but not solely...

like BAR said in another thread I believe NFL Week1 that 'sharps' love to middle games, no way to tell which games etc.

One thing about Pete is that a half point move IMO or a line holding steady does not constitute reverse line move or a public fade. Its the 1.5 - 3 point moves that go against the %'s that can be considered reverse if anything.
 
i respect all your opinions, but consider this:
a good capper will be pleased w/ a 60% clip on a year. this means they had an edge over the books. whats the diff if i use one method that PROVED it worked in cbb to give the edge? regardless, like i said, i wont be playing these until i see tangible evidence that it works in cfb, and if it does, its on like fucking donkey kong!
 
everything has been updated...yawn...

please notice my "test plays" located at the bottom of my original post as i hope to be shocked and astonished by their success

B.A.R.......

lets do this!!!!!!!!!
 
test these plays out guys....they have been workin but can ONLY be played on friday night (si's market movers)

copied from above to show progress

Cinci L
Texas
Ariz St
Ucon L
Mich
 
nevermind i see what u were sayin, marketmovers. i really dont pay much attention to that, jus look at reverse movement games an so on. jus cause uconn moves from 2.5 to 6.5 wit 71% on em doesnt make em a great play.
 
tru said:
nevermind i see what u were sayin, marketmovers. i really dont pay much attention to that, jus look at reverse movement games an so on. jus cause uconn moves from 2.5 to 6.5 wit 71% on em doesnt make em a great play.
Click to expand...

4 points is too much for any public to move; this would require millions...yes, its very important
 
that move was big, but look at texas how much they moved. those moves go along wit tha % numbers SI shows on both games. i liked some of tha 1st games in ur 1st post, i dont understand tryin to follow biggest market moves, SI doesnt even keep track of it overall for each week. they are jus showin tha biggest moves for that week, not how much money has moved tha lines or anything. jus biggest line moves from opening line to current line. big money was put on those teams to move tha lines, doesnt mean its smart money or a sharp play, jus money. most of tha movers are big public plays, thats why tha big line moves.
 
then lets go by this scenerio from the selections above using movement that makes no sense "reverse line movement"

SDSU +13.5
Mich +4.5
Clem +4
Central Mich -1
Cinci -28.5


these are the most disgusting reverse lines from today, lets see what happens
 
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