Vikings vs. Cardinals NFL Week 2 Picks and Odds Breakdown
Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Week 2 Overreactions
Every year, thoughts about Week 2 in the NFL are characterized by overreactions to Week 1.
Bettors look to Week 1 as a source of revelation about the different teams and players because it is the first game of the regular season.
As a result, they attach too much analytical value to a single game. This over-attachment is strengthened by recency bias, the phenomenon where people are inclined to emphasize what they witnessed most recently at the cost of what they witnessed less recently.
In this case, Arizona seems like an easy bet to make after it blew out a Titan team that went 11-5 last year and after Minnesota lost to the Bengals.
With this problematic bettor psychology in mind, we should take a step back and adopt a broader perspective when considering this game.
While explaining why you should bet on the Vikings, I still want to consider other sorts of erroneous logic that may seduce bettors to incorrectly play the Cardinals.
The Cardinals Stopped Superstar Derrick Henry: So What?
A Cardinal supporter will point to this one game against Tennessee, Arizona's season opener, as proof that the Cardinal run defense is superb.
But let's take a step back and do some comparative analysis.
Last year, Derrick Henry opened the season by rushing for 3.7 YPC against Denver. That year, Denver finished 25th in opposing rush yards per game.
Two years ago, Henry opened with 84 yards on 19 carries in a 43-13 blowout against a Brown defense that ranked 30th in rush defense that year.
Three years ago, Henry ran for 2.6 YPC in his season opener against a Dolphin run defense that ranked 31st that year.
Clearly, Derrick Henry's poor effort in Week 1 says nothing about Arizona's run defense because he repeatedly opens the season with poor efforts against run defenses that turn out to be very bad.
I'm not saying, based on Henry's history, that the Cardinal run defense is bad. I am only saying that one shouldn't attach the wrong sort of significance to Henry's performance in Week 1 against Arizona.
Counter 1: Establish The Pass
In order to limit a run-heavy Titan offense, the Cardinals liked to stack the box while offering a single-high safety look on defense.
Stacking the box is something that Minnesota often sees opposing defenses do because, like Tennessee, its offensive centerpiece is a running back.
One way in which the Vikings gladly counter these defensive strategies is with a play-action pass.
Since 2018, Viking quarterback Kirk Cousins has the most touchdowns (40) off a play-action pass among any NFL quarterback.
Unlike the Titans, Cousins has the benefit of two superb receivers, both of whom he knows very well by now and both of whom have been completely healthy since Justin Jefferson returned to practice in early August.
Last year, Jefferson amassed 1,400 yards with a uniquely high number of 20+-yard receptions, while Thielen was also productive.with fewer targets.
Both wide receivers promise to feast on a Cardinal secondary still coping with the surprise retirement of cornerback Malcolm Butler and with a unusual amount of youth, inexperience, and problematic depth.
Dalvin Cook
For Minnesota, success in the air will encourage success on the ground.
But the Vikings have an additional advantage that Tennessee lacked: the versatility of its star running back.
Whereas, last year, Henry accrued 19 receptions, Cook amassed 44. This isn't a knock against Henry: he's simply a different type of back.
Cook's comfort as a pass-catcher is a vital part of getting him out in space.
While praises are loudly being sung for Arizona's defensive line, Cook's versatility helps offset any advantage that the Cardinals may own in the trenches.
Last year, Cook amassed 1,557 rushing yards last year with an awful Viking offensive line that looked worse than it did heading into this year.
On top of everything else, Minnesota's use of misdirection has helped Cook ably use deception to offset problems in run protection.
Making Kyler Murray Uncomfortable
The dangerous aspects of Arizona's offense are concentrated in its passing attack, which is led by the mobile Kyler Murray.
A decisive thing that Minnesota can do is to use the strength of its stacked defensive line to make him uncomfortable and to be physical with him.
Danielle Hunter is back at defensive end after achieving 14.5-sack seasons in each of his last two healthy seasons.
Minnesota invested significant resources in their defensive line that required Week 1 to gain chemistry together. While Hunter poses a vicious threat on the edge, Sheldon Richardson, Michael Pierce, and Dalvin Tomlinson will rotate to overwhelm the interior.
For their abilities inside, Pierce and Tomlinson are routinely graded in the 83rd percentile or above in run defense while Richardson is a reputed pass-rush specialist who will see the field when the opponent is likelier to throw the ball.
The Vikings retooled their secondary, too, partly by getting former cardinal Patrick Peterson, the three-time All-Pro selection who is bent on getting revenge against his former team.
The Verdict
Minnesota's star-studded dose of run and pass on offense will complement its stronger secondary and defensive line play to upset the Cardinals.
Best Bet: Vikings +3.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Week 2 Overreactions
Every year, thoughts about Week 2 in the NFL are characterized by overreactions to Week 1.
Bettors look to Week 1 as a source of revelation about the different teams and players because it is the first game of the regular season.
As a result, they attach too much analytical value to a single game. This over-attachment is strengthened by recency bias, the phenomenon where people are inclined to emphasize what they witnessed most recently at the cost of what they witnessed less recently.
In this case, Arizona seems like an easy bet to make after it blew out a Titan team that went 11-5 last year and after Minnesota lost to the Bengals.
With this problematic bettor psychology in mind, we should take a step back and adopt a broader perspective when considering this game.
While explaining why you should bet on the Vikings, I still want to consider other sorts of erroneous logic that may seduce bettors to incorrectly play the Cardinals.
The Cardinals Stopped Superstar Derrick Henry: So What?
A Cardinal supporter will point to this one game against Tennessee, Arizona's season opener, as proof that the Cardinal run defense is superb.
But let's take a step back and do some comparative analysis.
Last year, Derrick Henry opened the season by rushing for 3.7 YPC against Denver. That year, Denver finished 25th in opposing rush yards per game.
Two years ago, Henry opened with 84 yards on 19 carries in a 43-13 blowout against a Brown defense that ranked 30th in rush defense that year.
Three years ago, Henry ran for 2.6 YPC in his season opener against a Dolphin run defense that ranked 31st that year.
Clearly, Derrick Henry's poor effort in Week 1 says nothing about Arizona's run defense because he repeatedly opens the season with poor efforts against run defenses that turn out to be very bad.
I'm not saying, based on Henry's history, that the Cardinal run defense is bad. I am only saying that one shouldn't attach the wrong sort of significance to Henry's performance in Week 1 against Arizona.
Counter 1: Establish The Pass
In order to limit a run-heavy Titan offense, the Cardinals liked to stack the box while offering a single-high safety look on defense.
Stacking the box is something that Minnesota often sees opposing defenses do because, like Tennessee, its offensive centerpiece is a running back.
One way in which the Vikings gladly counter these defensive strategies is with a play-action pass.
Since 2018, Viking quarterback Kirk Cousins has the most touchdowns (40) off a play-action pass among any NFL quarterback.
Unlike the Titans, Cousins has the benefit of two superb receivers, both of whom he knows very well by now and both of whom have been completely healthy since Justin Jefferson returned to practice in early August.
Last year, Jefferson amassed 1,400 yards with a uniquely high number of 20+-yard receptions, while Thielen was also productive.with fewer targets.
Both wide receivers promise to feast on a Cardinal secondary still coping with the surprise retirement of cornerback Malcolm Butler and with a unusual amount of youth, inexperience, and problematic depth.
Dalvin Cook
For Minnesota, success in the air will encourage success on the ground.
But the Vikings have an additional advantage that Tennessee lacked: the versatility of its star running back.
Whereas, last year, Henry accrued 19 receptions, Cook amassed 44. This isn't a knock against Henry: he's simply a different type of back.
Cook's comfort as a pass-catcher is a vital part of getting him out in space.
While praises are loudly being sung for Arizona's defensive line, Cook's versatility helps offset any advantage that the Cardinals may own in the trenches.
Last year, Cook amassed 1,557 rushing yards last year with an awful Viking offensive line that looked worse than it did heading into this year.
On top of everything else, Minnesota's use of misdirection has helped Cook ably use deception to offset problems in run protection.
Making Kyler Murray Uncomfortable
The dangerous aspects of Arizona's offense are concentrated in its passing attack, which is led by the mobile Kyler Murray.
A decisive thing that Minnesota can do is to use the strength of its stacked defensive line to make him uncomfortable and to be physical with him.
Danielle Hunter is back at defensive end after achieving 14.5-sack seasons in each of his last two healthy seasons.
Minnesota invested significant resources in their defensive line that required Week 1 to gain chemistry together. While Hunter poses a vicious threat on the edge, Sheldon Richardson, Michael Pierce, and Dalvin Tomlinson will rotate to overwhelm the interior.
For their abilities inside, Pierce and Tomlinson are routinely graded in the 83rd percentile or above in run defense while Richardson is a reputed pass-rush specialist who will see the field when the opponent is likelier to throw the ball.
The Vikings retooled their secondary, too, partly by getting former cardinal Patrick Peterson, the three-time All-Pro selection who is bent on getting revenge against his former team.
The Verdict
Minnesota's star-studded dose of run and pass on offense will complement its stronger secondary and defensive line play to upset the Cardinals.
Best Bet: Vikings +3.5 at -110 with BetOnline
