• Time to make 1st round picks for the College Football Playoff Contest!

Very early leans

tuck321

tuck321

Not all those who wander are lost
Seattle
Just remembering trends they react violently to being held to 1or 2 runs or losing by 10 or more and Arrieta has 1 good start in his last 5. Simply no way he should be a large favorite.
Hellickson is getting plus money on 4 days rest is simply insane.
I lean to Padres 10-6 on Saturday and I certainly lean Miami 16-7 vs lefties this year vs Garcia on 3 for the first time in his life.
Other leans I have but these come first
 
Cokin's free play today
Take: PADRES +120
At first glance, it probably seems easy to back the Reds here. Anthony DeSclafani still hasn’t lost a decision, and he’s had several good outings for Cincinnati. On the flip side, Christian Friedrich has not been effective for San Diego and he’s really not a guy who generates much confidence.
But all that is in the betting line, which as always is weighted heavily based on the starting pitchers. That’s where I think we garner some value here. The fact remains Cincinnati is an awful road team. They’re 17-33 away from home, and even with a good starting pitcher on the hill, I find it really tough to justify a team that inept on the road laying this much chalk.
It’s also worth noting that the Reds have not produced a whole lot of offense when facing southpaws on the road, so maybe we can get a handful of okay frames out of Friedrich tonight.
No matter how you slice it, this is the worst team in baseball in net runs (-137 for this season) spotting what I feel is an overly generous price on the road, and I’m comfortable with fading the Reds here. I’ll gulp with Friedrich and will back the Padres.
 
StatFox Super Situations

MLB | CINCINNATI at SAN DIEGO
Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN DIEGO) below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA >=4.50), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest
365-260 since 1997. ( 58.4% | 109.4 units )
14-8 this year. ( 63.6% | 6.0 units )
​
 

<tbody>
[TD="class: matchupCells Text"]MILEY is 3-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.89 and a WHIP of 1.038.[/TD]

[TD="class: matchupCells Text"]His team's record is 4-1 (+3.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.1 units)[/TD]

</tbody>
 
KAZMIR is 37-18 (+18.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997. (Team's Record)
 
I really hate to say this but it might be best to skip the Toronto game today. I believe Happ is on 5
[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]5 Days,GS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].500[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

The ref is also a problem
 
tuck321 said:
I really hate to say this but it might be best to skip the Toronto game today. I believe Happ is on 5
[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]5 Days,GS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].500[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

The ref is also a problem
Click to expand...
I have a tough time backing gallardo but this stat seems intriguing. Both games from last year:
[TABLE="class: tablehead, width: 922"]
<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">[TR="class: evenrow"]
[TD]vs. TOR[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]13.2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].136[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Just rechecked Hellickson. 4 days is not his best. I am seeing 4.37 although he is very good in the day
 
Bartolo is actually 3-1 on 3 but tend to expect those results were when he was younger
 
Lets look at DeSiafani away at night
First game folds at Atlanta going 2.2 giving up 4 runs 1 earned and the game is lost 8-9
game 2 wins at Texas when Colby explodes last game of season and wins going and giving up 2 runs
Game 3 Loses at Washington going 6 in a mid day game
game 4 and last wins at night in SF going 5 innings giving up 5 runs. Awesome
By the way playing Mets tonight
 
Rea today is playing on 4
This season 3.31 ERA based on 49 innings
Garcia with Welke.
Not sure. Covers shows him losing at home 6-3 to Cubs
Baseball reference says 1 inning no score
 
In the Cleveland game Tomlin is on 6 which is very good for him. Its not a good day for Cleveland but the Oakland pitcher seems hopeless the ump is major chalk and with Tomlin off a terrible loss I am wondering about 2.5 as they eat lefties.
This starter has a 8.40 ERA at night and faces an ump who has shook hands with every home favorite
 
Last edited:
No play here in Detroit. I mentioned to another poster that he should check the ump there. The ump is 5-14 for the home team and has been moderately bad for Verlander.
 
Here is a riddle. What do Miami and Houston have in common?
The answer is both teams are 3-1 this season after allowing 10 or more runs
 
This looks like a Mia Culpa. Its not over but I did take 1.5 with Seattle but no ML
 
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