Very early leans

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

Seattle
Just remembering trends they react violently to being held to 1or 2 runs or losing by 10 or more and Arrieta has 1 good start in his last 5. Simply no way he should be a large favorite.
Hellickson is getting plus money on 4 days rest is simply insane.
I lean to Padres 10-6 on Saturday and I certainly lean Miami 16-7 vs lefties this year vs Garcia on 3 for the first time in his life.
Other leans I have but these come first

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

By the way in Miami Bill Welke is the ump 14-3 for the home team

baycreek · Jul 30, 2016

Good call on the Fish today

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

Cokin's free play today
Take: PADRES +120
At first glance, it probably seems easy to back the Reds here. Anthony DeSclafani still hasn’t lost a decision, and he’s had several good outings for Cincinnati. On the flip side, Christian Friedrich has not been effective for San Diego and he’s really not a guy who generates much confidence.
But all that is in the betting line, which as always is weighted heavily based on the starting pitchers. That’s where I think we garner some value here. The fact remains Cincinnati is an awful road team. They’re 17-33 away from home, and even with a good starting pitcher on the hill, I find it really tough to justify a team that inept on the road laying this much chalk.
It’s also worth noting that the Reds have not produced a whole lot of offense when facing southpaws on the road, so maybe we can get a handful of okay frames out of Friedrich tonight.
No matter how you slice it, this is the worst team in baseball in net runs (-137 for this season) spotting what I feel is an overly generous price on the road, and I’m comfortable with fading the Reds here. I’ll gulp with Friedrich and will back the Padres.

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | CINCINNATI at SAN DIEGO
Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN DIEGO) below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA >=4.50), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest
365-260 since 1997. ( 58.4% | 109.4 units )
14-8 this year. ( 63.6% | 6.0 units )

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

<tbody>
[TD="class: matchupCells Text"]MILEY is 3-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.89 and a WHIP of 1.038.[/TD]

[TD="class: matchupCells Text"]His team's record is 4-1 (+3.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.1 units)[/TD]

</tbody>

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

Cleveland RL looks good

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

KAZMIR is 37-18 (+18.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997. (Team's Record)

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

I really hate to say this but it might be best to skip the Toronto game today. I believe Happ is on 5
[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]5 Days,GS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].500[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

The ref is also a problem

TheSportsThing · Jul 30, 2016

tuck321 said:
I really hate to say this but it might be best to skip the Toronto game today. I believe Happ is on 5
[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]5 Days,GS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].500[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

The ref is also a problem

I have a tough time backing gallardo but this stat seems intriguing. Both games from last year:
[TABLE="class: tablehead, width: 922"]
<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">[TR="class: evenrow"]
[TD]vs. TOR[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]13.2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].136[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

Over and Baltimore might get there.
I really like Happ but not on 5

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

Just rechecked Hellickson. 4 days is not his best. I am seeing 4.37 although he is very good in the day

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

Bartolo is actually 3-1 on 3 but tend to expect those results were when he was younger

HUNT · Jul 30, 2016

Gl today tuck

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

Thanks. Ref in the Mets game is Very good for Bartolo Colon

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

Lets look at DeSiafani away at night
First game folds at Atlanta going 2.2 giving up 4 runs 1 earned and the game is lost 8-9
game 2 wins at Texas when Colby explodes last game of season and wins going and giving up 2 runs
Game 3 Loses at Washington going 6 in a mid day game
game 4 and last wins at night in SF going 5 innings giving up 5 runs. Awesome
By the way playing Mets tonight

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

Rea today is playing on 4
This season 3.31 ERA based on 49 innings
Garcia with Welke.
Not sure. Covers shows him losing at home 6-3 to Cubs
Baseball reference says 1 inning no score

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

In the Cleveland game Tomlin is on 6 which is very good for him. Its not a good day for Cleveland but the Oakland pitcher seems hopeless the ump is major chalk and with Tomlin off a terrible loss I am wondering about 2.5 as they eat lefties.
This starter has a 8.40 ERA at night and faces an ump who has shook hands with every home favorite

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

No play here in Detroit. I mentioned to another poster that he should check the ump there. The ump is 5-14 for the home team and has been moderately bad for Verlander.

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

Kasmir with major home ump
6-1 SU 2.84 ERA

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

Here is a riddle. What do Miami and Houston have in common?
The answer is both teams are 3-1 this season after allowing 10 or more runs

tuck321 · Jul 30, 2016

This looks like a Mia Culpa. Its not over but I did take 1.5 with Seattle but no ML

BenchCoach · Jul 31, 2016

Any thoughts on tonights game?

bluedevilboy · Jul 31, 2016

I took Sea TT o3.5 -120

tuck321 · Aug 1, 2016

Good call.

Very early leans

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Not all those who wander are lost

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Not all those who wander are lost

Not all those who wander are lost

Not all those who wander are lost

Not all those who wander are lost

Not all those who wander are lost

Not all those who wander are lost

Go NY Go NY Go Go Go

Not all those who wander are lost

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Not all those who wander are lost

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