Vegas 74

[mrpickem]

Vegas 74​

First Bout

• 3/3.30 PHILIPE LINS +110
• 3/2.08 LINS vs GRISHIN o2½ -144

​

• Should be a close striking with these two LW contenders. Lins seems the fresher fighter at this stage of his career as Grishim is pushing 40 now. Lins can utilize a speed advantage and pump out more volume than a lower-volume Grishin and should be able to cruise to a decision victory.

 

[mrpickem]

Not the greatest card but I do like the main

 

[mrpickem]

[2-0 +5.38u]​

• 3/2.14 Luan Lacerda -140
• 1.14/2 LUAN LACERDA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +175
• 3/2.27 Elise Reed -132
• 4/1.64 REED vs FREY o2½ -244

• I like what Lacerda brings as a well-rounded mixed martial artist. Blackshear is very athletic with excellent wrestling, but his mat control needs work as does his striking. Mix in some bad cardio I see Lacerda running right through Blackshear most everywhere. Either a late finish or one-sided decision.
• Reed has shown more promise than Frey so far as well as less shopworn. Reed has a decent chance to showcase her game in this bout. Frey will be on her bike and try to stay away from the cage to be competitive against Reed. Most likely, Frey mixes it up a bit standing until Reed gets inside the clinch takes her down and beats her up with control time to take the unanimous decision victory. The over should be a near lock.

 

[mrpickem]

Vegas 74 ~ Rest of the Prelims​

• 2/3.86 JOHNNY MUNOZ JR +193
• 2.48/3 ANDREI ARLOVSKI +121
• 3/1.56 ARLOVSKI vs MAYES o2½ -192
• 3/3.42 MUIN GAFUROV +114
• 1.16/4 MUHAMMADJON NAIMOV +344

• Santos has more power in his hands, but he has shown serious holes in his defense and got caught several times in his last fight. He does have a great chin, it's not smart taking that much damage early in your career. Munoz should have a good chance to win today if he follows the same game plan from his last fight. Munoz is quicker on the ground with subs and should have a definite advantage once they hit the mat. I'm backing the dog here, quite possibly by sub.
• Arlovski has been fighting pro since 1999 is still winning fights at age 44 some 24 years later...WOW! He adjusted his style from a vicious striker with deadly KO power to a point-style fighter that is very hard to gameplan for. I would usually be reluctant to back such an old fighter, but this is Anre Arlovski and he's fighting Don'Tale Mayes at plus money on the former champ who's been there, done that, and beat the who's who of the HW division.
• Should be a great fight with 2 high-output BWs. This may be over early if both fighters come to fight like they usually do. Both may have moments early, but I don't think Castaneda can absorb Gafurov's power and likely goes down in 1st or 2nd.
• Mullarkey is well-rounded and can beat Naimov anywhere he wants to take this fight. However, Naimov's a hard-nosed grinder also well-rounded in all facets of MMA. You'll never see Naimov backing in any of his fights as he is always pushing the pace, coming forward, and being the aggressor. Even on short notice I'll take a small shot at the big dog making a name for himself vs the proven Aussie.

 

[mrpickem]

Vegas 74 ~ So Far

3/3.30 PHILIPE LINS +110
3/2.08 LINS vs GRISHIN o2½ -144
3/2.14 Luan Lacerda -140
1.14/2 LUAN LACERDA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +175
3/2.27 Elise Reed -132
4/1.64 REED vs FREY o2½ -244
1.16/4 MUHAMMADJON NAIMOV +344
3/3.42 MUIN GAFUROV +114
2.48/3 ANDREI ARLOVSKI +121
3/1.56 ARLOVSKI vs MAYES o2½ -192
2/3.86 JOHNNY MUNOZ JR +193

[6-5 +4.53u]

 

[mrpickem]

Vegas 74 ~ Main Card​

• Nurmagomedov likely controls the wrestling in this one. Problem is that he usually fails to land significant G-n-P when he has opponent down. New rules now have referees standing fights up if they don't see significant work being done. This may be detrimental to Nurmagomedov's game as he focuses on controlling the fight. This fight could go either way but I like the over and likely going the distance. I'll also back the Dagestani at this price.
• Souza needs to stay in constant motion while popping her shots on the end of her entries. After Silva begins to tire by the 2nd, this might be Souza's fight to win. But Silva is very aggressive with power and may overwhelms Ketlen early. If she plays it smart, she'll get a takedown right away and go for the early sub. I like them chances.
• Elliott & Altamirano have similar styles in the way they move around their opponent. Elliott has the experience, is the faster fighter and has shown to be more cautious defensively. If he can be patient and read Altamirano's head movement, he should find a few damaging shots on his chin. I think after 20 UFC fights(10-10) Tim starts to age out in this one and the younger hungrier fighter gets it done. The odds seem quite strange to me.
• Jim Miller in his 42nd UFC fight, Jessie Butler in his 1st...enough said, This kid is out of his depth tonight. Plus it's short notice as dumb ass Gordon talked of having a concussion in training a few weeks ago and got suspended just over a week ago.

[6-5 +4.53u]

• 2.44/2 ABUBAKAR NURMAGOMEDOV -122
• 4/2.00 ZALESKI vs NURMAGOMEDOV o2½ -200
• 3/1.52 KARINE SILVA -197
• 2/1.90 KARINE SILVA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -105
• 1/2.50 KARINE SILVA IN ROUND 1 +250
• 2.70/4 VICTOR ALTAMIRANO +148
• 3/1.24 JIM MILLER -241
• 2/1.67 JIM MILLER KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -120

​

 

[mrpickem]

Vegas 74 ~ Top of the Card​

• Caceres should to do enough with his hands for the victory over Pineda.
• Albazi is one of the more powerful & technical strikers at Flyweight, plus he has a deep wrestling background. After getting KO's with a huge body kick in his last fight, Kara-France may be a little tentative of Amir's body kicks. Should see some high-level striking, but both fighters most likely play a methodical mind game while feeling each out. Amir hits harder and is more aggressive, so I'll back the Iraqian...as well as the over.

[12-7 +10.22u]

• 3/1.62 ALEX CACERES -185
• 3/2.61 Amir Albazi -115
• 3/1.88 Albazi vs Kara France o3½ -160