US Open @ Oakmont Discussion and In-Game Thread

RBTrojan said:
I feel late to the party, but Rory feels like fade material. I’m eyeing X vs Rory, but haven’t played it yet. I have made one play so far

Full tourney matchup:

Bezuidenhout -125 vs Van Rooyen: I really like his ability to grind. He’s solid around the greens. This is a situation where I think one guy makes the cut, and the other doesn’t.

Most likely I’ll be adding more match ups. As always, best of luck with your plays.
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I am definitely looking to fade Rory
 
jimmymo said:
Starting Card......

Aberg to win (30-1).......0.25 Unit
Rory to miss cut (+250).....0.5 Unit
Morikowa -130 over Nieman (Tourney)......1.3 to win 1
English -125 over McNealy (Tourney) 1.3 to win 1
Rahm +235 over Sheff (Tourney).....0.5 to win 1.175
Bryson -170 over Rory (Tourney)......1.7 to win 1 (gulp)
Hovland -110 over Speith (Tourney) 1.1 to win 1
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Tequila!
 
B.A.R. said:
Problem is, he's awful in majors.

Substandard at best.

Talent is there, no doubt.
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He did finish tied for 8th at the PGA. Still young and only one outside Rahm and Douche I'd consider from LIV. Nice to see him playing 4 round events elsewhere when he obviously doesn't need to.
 
KJ said:
He did finish tied for 8th at the PGA. Still young and only one outside Rahm and Douche I'd consider from LIV. Nice to see him playing 4 round events elsewhere when he obviously doesn't need to.
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That's right. He did have a nice 4th round.

I took him at ridiculous odds to start the 3rd and he had a bad Saturday.

Maybe that was a building block?

Everything else on the majors resume is not good though.

Edit: May PGA still doesn't register well in my head ;)
 
All good stuff guys. Late to the party with boss in town for past 3 days. No thoughts or plays yet, just getting around to hearing how difficult and high scoring this Open will be, for the 100th time, it even shows up in my GHIN app. Just feels like any play (match-up or O/U, live plays) has a good chance to blow up, with one bad hole.

I'll be jumping in at some point with some plays to fade or poke fun of. Leggo U.S. Open
 
laopadak said:
All good stuff guys. Late to the party with boss in town for past 3 days. No thoughts or plays yet, just getting around to hearing how difficult and high scoring this Open will be, for the 100th time, it even shows up in my GHIN app. Just feels like any play (match-up or O/U, live plays) has a good chance to blow up, with one bad hole.

I'll be jumping in at some point with some plays to fade or poke fun of. Leggo U.S. Open
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Excellent idea

Favorite tournament to watch, least favorite to put money on. Go figure!
 
B.A.R. said:
That's right. He did have a nice 4th round.

I took him at ridiculous odds to start the 3rd and he had a bad Saturday.

Maybe that was a building block?

Everything else on the majors resume is not good though.

Edit: May PGA still doesn't register well in my head ;)
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Quail is a tour course. The other majors are played at venues that demand a different level of play to have success
 
Good size bet on total final score, under 278.5 -125 7.65u (Fanatics).

Think first two rounds will yield decent scores, final two with possible weather leveling out closer to par.

GL on your plays this week
 
Gandolf said:
OK, I'm going to play a bit of a skeptic regarding Oakmont's fearsome reputation holding form this week. Let me throw some thoughts out here.

A) Oakmont is fully invested in its inland links personality. The few trees that line the course perimeters are completely a non-factor (I think they were last time as well). This course will rely on three things for defense: 1) High, thick rough, 2) Slick undulating greens, 3) Acres of bunkers. There are also drainage ditches running alongside many of the holes south of the Turnpike, but you'll need to be way of course to land in most of them. Bunkers as we know are not much of a problem for pros. They'll take that over rough any day. The rough needs wind to play havoc on shots, and the greens need to be firm to make them their toughest. Which bring us to:

B) Weather - After a cold wet May, the area got about 2 inches of rain this weekend. There are forecasts for more rain tonight. Then it'll be dry Tuesday-Friday but only in the 70s Tue/Wed then mid-80s Thu-Sun with thunderstorm chances Sat/Sun. A couple of days of dry weather will not be enough to make these greens firm. The rough will be lush, but do these guys really care? Because:

C) Golf has been totally converted to a bomb & gouge style of play. Scottie was lamenting this fact not long ago. With portable launch monitors these guys are all focused on distance. One more weather note: there is NO wind in the forecast for this week. Without trees or wind it will be bombs away and gouge out a wedge to a green with some give in it. Everyone is going to have the same strategy....it'll be like how every college team now employs the same spread offense. This course is not long enough to stop it:

Hole 1 - 488 yards, but downhill, with minimal bunkers. Fly it 320 and at worst it's a 9 iron, many will be hitting wedge. Somehow this was the hardest hole last time.
Hole 2 - 346 yards. There's a decent size landing area for drivers that leaves are little pitch. A+ birdie hole.
Hole 3 - 462 yards. Good uphill par 4 with a hogsback green and narrowing fairway in the landing area. Ranked #7 last time, I'm think top 4 this time.
Hole 4 - 611 yards. Downhill par 5 is another good birdie opportunity with a huge green to receive fairway woods.
Hole 5 - 408 yards. Blindish tee shot but easy enough to have a wedge in your hands for the approach. Another good early birdie opportunity.
Hole 6 - 200 yards. Not a terribly hard hole, for pros it's probably going to be a 6-7 iron. Green has three areas....have to land in the right one. A mid-level birdie op. So, the first six holes you have a good chance of being 2 or 3 under. Then hang on to finish the front nine.
Hole 7 - 485 yards. Legit toughie here with length and a tiered green. Was #5 hardest last time, will be about that again.
Hole 8 - 289 yards. Pretty large green and better for hooks than fades. Hit it, two putt and whistle across the Turnpike.
Hole 9 - 472 yards. Plays as a par 5 for members, so no surprise it was #2 ranked last time. All uphill, with a green connected to the practice green. You could see some 30 yard putts. After 4 decent birdie chances the first 6 holes, hanging on to whatever you may have gained on the last 3 will a key.
Hole 10 - 461 yards. Kind of similar to #1, downhill, no fairway bunkers. The ditches are not far off the fairway on the right. #4 rank last time. Get past this and you're done with four of the five toughest holes already.
Hole 11 - 400 yards - One of the weak links at Oakmont. Wedges into a green surrounded by 3 sides on bunkers. Ranked 14th last time. Good birdie opp.
Hole 12 - 632 yards - They shortened this hole since 2016 but have kept the serpentine fairway. Another front to back green, I think this plays much softer than the #10 ranking it had last time.
Hole 13 - 182 yards - The shortest par 3 played at 2.99 average last time.
Hole 14 - 379 yards - Tons of bunkers but it plays pretty easy. 3.99 average last time. So like the front, the back offers decent birdie chances through many of the first 5 holes.
Hole 15 - 507 yards - Fairways slopes left to right favoring draw hitters. Green is huge, also slopes hard left to right. The last of the 5 toughest last time out.
Hole 16 - 236 yards - Solid, tough par 3. Pins on the left side are gettable, on the right will not be. Ranked #9 last time.
Hole 17 - 312 yards - 129 birdies were made here last time, and the winner had none of them. This is one of the holes where the green firmness (or softness) makes a big difference. Dechambeau drove it in 50 degree temps last weekend.
Hole 18 - 502 yard - Good solid hole, ranked #6 last time. I'm surprised it doesn't play tougher than #1, but that could because everyone feels pressure on #1, but only a select few will feel it on #18.

As far as a winning score, I look at this course and see strong birdie chances on 2, 4, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 17. #1 and #10 can be had by the bigger hitters. You're hanging on at 3, 7, 8, 9, 15, 16 and 18. I go back to 2016 and see -4 won it, but I also see that Lowery finished the 3rd round at -7. I think -8 is doable this week. Softer conditions, light wind, longer hitters, the bomb and gouge mentality in full bloom. I don't think it plays quite as hard as many hope it will.
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Excellent 15 minutes
 
bones said:
I took:
Scottie 3rd or better at even money
Xander 18th or better -120

* Added "No hole in one" -190

I have a local and probably do not get best odds. Both bets were not significant $
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Thanks for sharing.

That Xander bet is solid the more I cap this.
 
twinkie13 said:
Gandy you ever play Oakmont?
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I played it twice, around 15 years ago. First time was a beautiful summer day, got there early, was relaxed, birdied 6, 16 and 17, needed a par on 18 for 79. Drove it into a bunker and ended up taking a triple for 82. Still was pleased at the effort.

Second time work got in the way, was rushed to get to the course, not much warmup. It was October and there was a persistent 15-20 mph wind. Shot a 96 and probably gave myself a putt or three to get there. Could not wait to end that round. Imagine that, playing at a top 5 course in the world and wishing for it to end.

Greens are as fast as advertised and fun as hell to putt on for us public course players.
 
Was interested to see how firm the greens would be. Not seeing the big, dry ground hops and it looks like you can spin it nicely from the fairways. Overall looks very playable. Tomorrow will be a little drier but then maybe some quick showers for Saturday and Sunday.
 
Gandolf said:
I played it twice, around 15 years ago. First time was a beautiful summer day, got there early, was relaxed, birdied 6, 16 and 17, needed a par on 18 for 79. Drove it into a bunker and ended up taking a triple for 82. Still was pleased at the effort.

Second time work got in the way, was rushed to get to the course, not much warmup. It was October and there was a persistent 15-20 mph wind. Shot a 96 and probably gave myself a putt or three to get there. Could not wait to end that round. Imagine that, playing at a top 5 course in the world and wishing for it to end.

Greens are as fast as advertised and fun as hell to putt on for us public course players.
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Haha when I played Kapalua it was maybe my third round of the year. Had no plans to play but buddy was adamant and I knew he'd never be back in Hawaii again so I went along. Rented clubs etc. Missed a 5 footer on 18 to shoot 100 lol....lots of beer caught up down the stretch...was snowing on Maui! Wind was crazy, storms in the mountains maybe 10 miles away. Had to adjust drives by 30 yards or so, irons 10-15 etc.

Evidence of that murder:Kapalua Scorecard.jpg
 
Gandolf said:
I played it twice, around 15 years ago. First time was a beautiful summer day, got there early, was relaxed, birdied 6, 16 and 17, needed a par on 18 for 79. Drove it into a bunker and ended up taking a triple for 82. Still was pleased at the effort.

Second time work got in the way, was rushed to get to the course, not much warmup. It was October and there was a persistent 15-20 mph wind. Shot a 96 and probably gave myself a putt or three to get there. Could not wait to end that round. Imagine that, playing at a top 5 course in the world and wishing for it to end.

Greens are as fast as advertised and fun as hell to putt on for us public course players.
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The other cool things about that course is the walk to the next tee is always short except for when crossing the turnpike, and the lack of trees means you can see the other groups on all the holes, most everyone is walking with caddies and you can kinda pretend you're in a tournament setting. And no phones were allowed on the course back then.
 
What they just said is so vital this week. Today is the absolute best scoring day we'll see. Over rounds will be the only way I approach this going forward.
 
KJ said:
What they just said is so vital this week. Today is the absolute best scoring day we'll see. Over rounds will be the only way I approach this going forward.
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Scott off to a hot start, hoping he stays consistent and under par, will look for a big fade tomorrow.
 
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Back 9 looking gettable today, yesterday it was the front 9 producing numbers.

Burns, Hovland, Day all -3 or better on the back. Conners, Kirk, Finau, Berger all -2.

Not a single front 9 starter today under par.
 
Quick pop of rain in about 15 minutes. Raining at my office and the path looks like it will skirt the course.

Cancel that, running a couple of mile south of course.
 
Last edited:
Rd.2 live play- Rai Guy under 73.5 -165 4.5u (FD). +1 thru 7.

As Gandolf stated, back 9 gettable and there's a few finishing up the front at +1 or +2, back 9 should get them back closer to par.
 
Rd.2 Add- Fading Scott, don't think he sees as many birds today and bogeys will be had. No over under available so taking Harman +100 for 2.5u (FD)
 
Those idiots on the Sirius channel said the projected cut is +9. In the morning wave there's already 33 players finished at +6 or better and another four with their last 3 holes left. +6 looks like the number. +7 at most.
 
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