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US Open @ Oakmont Discussion and In-Game Thread

B.A.R.

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Staff member
CTG US OPEN CONTEST --150.00 IN CASH PRIZES


I am excited for this US Open. We have a classic golf course that will chew a few of these guys up. We shall see if the rough is just SM echo chamber or something of reality.

Last three winners @ Oakmont

Angel in 2007
Dustin in 2016
Ernie in 1994

8 of the last 9 Oakmont US Open winners have won multiple majors in their career.

Creating a winning golfer profile here shouldn't be too hard IMO

The quick history of inland links to trees and back to original form...



Oakmont was initially planned as an “inland links.” Trees were not an issue during its first half century. But that changed following stinging criticism of the course in 1953 by respected golf writer Herbert Warren Wind. He termed Oakmont an “ugly old brute of a course.” The judgment resonated with the members, who then embarked on an aggressive tree planting program for the next three decades, to the point where, by the 1994 U.S. Open, Oakmont was densely tree-lined, with each hole encased in its narrow corridor of leafy canopies.
That started to change in the late 1990s, with the maintenance crew selectively peeling back trees in the earliest of morning, before anyone would notice. A decade and a half later the process accelerated so that by the 2016 U.S. Open, Oakmont was back to its original look: nearly treeless, except for one specimen American Elm on the far side of the golf course.
 
OK, I'm going to play a bit of a skeptic regarding Oakmont's fearsome reputation holding form this week. Let me throw some thoughts out here.

A) Oakmont is fully invested in its inland links personality. The few trees that line the course perimeters are completely a non-factor (I think they were last time as well). This course will rely on three things for defense: 1) High, thick rough, 2) Slick undulating greens, 3) Acres of bunkers. There are also drainage ditches running alongside many of the holes south of the Turnpike, but you'll need to be way of course to land in most of them. Bunkers as we know are not much of a problem for pros. They'll take that over rough any day. The rough needs wind to play havoc on shots, and the greens need to be firm to make them their toughest. Which bring us to:

B) Weather - After a cold wet May, the area got about 2 inches of rain this weekend. There are forecasts for more rain tonight. Then it'll be dry Tuesday-Friday but only in the 70s Tue/Wed then mid-80s Thu-Sun with thunderstorm chances Sat/Sun. A couple of days of dry weather will not be enough to make these greens firm. The rough will be lush, but do these guys really care? Because:

C) Golf has been totally converted to a bomb & gouge style of play. Scottie was lamenting this fact not long ago. With portable launch monitors these guys are all focused on distance. One more weather note: there is NO wind in the forecast for this week. Without trees or wind it will be bombs away and gouge out a wedge to a green with some give in it. Everyone is going to have the same strategy....it'll be like how every college team now employs the same spread offense. This course is not long enough to stop it:

Hole 1 - 488 yards, but downhill, with minimal bunkers. Fly it 320 and at worst it's a 9 iron, many will be hitting wedge. Somehow this was the hardest hole last time.
Hole 2 - 346 yards. There's a decent size landing area for drivers that leaves are little pitch. A+ birdie hole.
Hole 3 - 462 yards. Good uphill par 4 with a hogsback green and narrowing fairway in the landing area. Ranked #7 last time, I'm think top 4 this time.
Hole 4 - 611 yards. Downhill par 5 is another good birdie opportunity with a huge green to receive fairway woods.
Hole 5 - 408 yards. Blindish tee shot but easy enough to have a wedge in your hands for the approach. Another good early birdie opportunity.
Hole 6 - 200 yards. Not a terribly hard hole, for pros it's probably going to be a 6-7 iron. Green has three areas....have to land in the right one. A mid-level birdie op. So, the first six holes you have a good chance of being 2 or 3 under. Then hang on to finish the front nine.
Hole 7 - 485 yards. Legit toughie here with length and a tiered green. Was #5 hardest last time, will be about that again.
Hole 8 - 289 yards. Pretty large green and better for hooks than fades. Hit it, two putt and whistle across the Turnpike.
Hole 9 - 472 yards. Plays as a par 5 for members, so no surprise it was #2 ranked last time. All uphill, with a green connected to the practice green. You could see some 30 yard putts. After 4 decent birdie chances the first 6 holes, hanging on to whatever you may have gained on the last 3 will a key.
Hole 10 - 461 yards. Kind of similar to #1, downhill, no fairway bunkers. The ditches are not far off the fairway on the right. #4 rank last time. Get past this and you're done with four of the five toughest holes already.
Hole 11 - 400 yards - One of the weak links at Oakmont. Wedges into a green surrounded by 3 sides on bunkers. Ranked 14th last time. Good birdie opp.
Hole 12 - 632 yards - They shortened this hole since 2016 but have kept the serpentine fairway. Another front to back green, I think this plays much softer than the #10 ranking it had last time.
Hole 13 - 182 yards - The shortest par 3 played at 2.99 average last time.
Hole 14 - 379 yards - Tons of bunkers but it plays pretty easy. 3.99 average last time. So like the front, the back offers decent birdie chances through many of the first 5 holes.
Hole 15 - 507 yards - Fairways slopes left to right favoring draw hitters. Green is huge, also slopes hard left to right. The last of the 5 toughest last time out.
Hole 16 - 236 yards - Solid, tough par 3. Pins on the left side are gettable, on the right will not be. Ranked #9 last time.
Hole 17 - 312 yards - 129 birdies were made here last time, and the winner had none of them. This is one of the holes where the green firmness (or softness) makes a big difference. Dechambeau drove it in 50 degree temps last weekend.
Hole 18 - 502 yard - Good solid hole, ranked #6 last time. I'm surprised it doesn't play tougher than #1, but that could because everyone feels pressure on #1, but only a select few will feel it on #18.

As far as a winning score, I look at this course and see strong birdie chances on 2, 4, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 17. #1 and #10 can be had by the bigger hitters. You're hanging on at 3, 7, 8, 9, 15, 16 and 18. I go back to 2016 and see -4 won it, but I also see that Lowery finished the 3rd round at -7. I think -8 is doable this week. Softer conditions, light wind, longer hitters, the bomb and gouge mentality in full bloom. I don't think it plays quite as hard as many hope it will.
 
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Hard for me to envision anyone outside the top group winning (Sheff/Bryson/Rory/Rahm/Aberg/X).....that said, here is what I played today on the longshots (can't remember all the numbers and don't want to go get tickets out of my car)........

Lowry
Burns
Cantlay
Henley
Hovland
 
Raining a little bit right now. Shouldn't be a lot but there's been quite a bit the last month.

Golf channel had the reigning Qakmont club champion on. His thought was with the softer conditions that -3 would be the winning number.
 
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Mind you I am against the local media here, who to a man are pumping up an over par winning score. They also think Aaron Rodgers makes the Steelers an 11-12 win team so.....
I think the winning score is likely under par, but I think the number of golfers in red numbers will be pretty low. I think the thing about Oakmont and a few other courses (Shinnecock, Pinehurst come to mind) is that it is not as difficult as long as you're in the right spot. But unlike a typical tour course where getting out of position brings bogey in to play at worst, the possibility for much bigger numbers is there for any golfer who is a little loose with either their swing, their mental game, or both
 
Understandably there isn't a lot of chatter about Xander right now, but his US Open record is pretty awesome:

7th, 10th, 14th, 7th, 5th, 3rd, 6th, and 5th

Maybe not worth a "to win" bet due to his form not quite elite enough after injury, but I think he's pretty live in matchups and top 5/10/20 type bets
 
Understandably there isn't a lot of chatter about Xander right now, but his US Open record is pretty awesome:

7th, 10th, 14th, 7th, 5th, 3rd, 6th, and 5th

Maybe not worth a "to win" bet due to his form not quite elite enough after injury, but I think he's pretty live in matchups and top 5/10/20 type bets
He was very relaxed and jokey during his turn in the media tent. Between the injury and last year's success I wonder if the edge wore off a bit and it will take a while to get it resharpened.
 
He was very relaxed and jokey during his turn in the media tent. Between the injury and last year's success I wonder if the edge wore off a bit and it will take a while to get it resharpened.
I agree, have been waiting for him to get in sync. I would expect him to trend up here, for the rest of the season. He has always been good on tough golf courses.
 
How far has Dustin Johnson fallen? He is matched up with Johnny Vegas at my book
It's just a shame, so much talent but I don't think he cares anymore. Has really lost his competitive edge (LIV syndrome).
 
Gandy - What are your thoughts on Niemann this week? I've seen some people this week that think he is going to be a factor?
 
Understandably there isn't a lot of chatter about Xander right now, but his US Open record is pretty awesome:

7th, 10th, 14th, 7th, 5th, 3rd, 6th, and 5th

Maybe not worth a "to win" bet due to his form not quite elite enough after injury, but I think he's pretty live in matchups and top 5/10/20 type bets
So many #s point to X.

Same #s did at PGA too.

Form is average, but worth some top 20 bets or something of the sort.
 
Gandy - What are your thoughts on Niemann this week? I've seen some people this week that think he is going to be a factor?
I think he can be a factor. The guy is winning everywhere on LIV and the Asian tour. He's got the length. He got the LIV exemption this week for being top 3 in the overall standings and not otherwise qualified. I didn't even know that the majors are starting to carve out slots for LIV. Good for them.
 
I think he can be a factor. The guy is winning everywhere on LIV and the Asian tour. He's got the length. He got the LIV exemption this week for being top 3 in the overall standings and not otherwise qualified. I didn't even know that the majors are starting to carve out slots for LIV. Good for them.
Problem is, he's awful in majors.

Substandard at best.

Talent is there, no doubt.
 
Wild enough, Scottie actually played here last time in 2016.

Obviously an Amateur, but he played the first 36 holes at 20 years old.
 
I'm sure most of you guys follow Klos...

Just wanted to link a few of my favorites there as I build some lineups and look at bets.
 
I'm sure most of you guys follow Klos...

Just wanted to link a few of my favorites there as I build some lineups and look at bets.
Was going to ask wtf is up with Rabbit Hole but I guess that's this guy's model?
 
No value in Bryson.

The Masters sucked all that away.

I say that as far as an outright.

There are other ways to attack this.

Bottom line for me with the defending champ, is iron play. He has struggled pulling irons quite a bit. Simply not hitting them straight. We've seen great putting and some excellent short game kinda ruined with the iron play.
 
No value in Bryson.

The Masters sucked all that away.

I say that as far as an outright.

There are other ways to attack this.

Bottom line for me with the defending champ, is iron play. He has struggled pulling irons quite a bit. Simply not hitting them straight. We've seen great putting and some excellent short game kinda ruined with the iron play.
I just watched Bryson's practice round from 10 days or so ago he posted on YT.

That day was cold and windy so maybe not the best comparison...

But interesting to hear his thought process through the 18 holes.

He's willing to ditch the driver here and there as well.

Again, wedges were a bit misjudged at times.

Only two par 5s, and both were fives for him.

E par overall, I think 4 birdie and 4 bogey overall.

He'll be in the thick of it.

I forgot that he actually led at one point early on in 2016 -- finished in the mid teens
 
I feel late to the party, but Rory feels like fade material. I’m eyeing X vs Rory, but haven’t played it yet. I have made one play so far

Full tourney matchup:

Bezuidenhout -125 vs Van Rooyen: I really like his ability to grind. He’s solid around the greens. This is a situation where I think one guy makes the cut, and the other doesn’t.

Most likely I’ll be adding more match ups. As always, best of luck with your plays.
 
I feel late to the party, but Rory feels like fade material. I’m eyeing X vs Rory, but haven’t played it yet. I have made one play so far

Full tourney matchup:

Bezuidenhout -125 vs Van Rooyen: I really like his ability to grind. He’s solid around the greens. This is a situation where I think one guy makes the cut, and the other doesn’t.

Most likely I’ll be adding more match ups. As always, best of luck with your plays.
Nice one RBT!
 
Wild enough, Scottie actually played here last time in 2016.

Obviously an Amateur, but he played the first 36 holes at 20 years old.
He also went to bed Thursday night leading the tournament. Andrew Landry elected to come back Friday morning to sink his birdie putt to take the official 1st round lead
 
Starting Card......

Aberg to win (30-1).......0.25 Unit
Rory to miss cut (+250).....0.5 Unit
Morikowa -130 over Nieman (Tourney)......1.3 to win 1
English -125 over McNealy (Tourney) 1.3 to win 1
Rahm +235 over Sheff (Tourney).....0.5 to win 1.175
Bryson -170 over Rory (Tourney)......1.7 to win 1 (gulp)
Hovland -110 over Speith (Tourney) 1.1 to win 1
 
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