UFL 2025

[RBD]

Record: 0-0

I'm excited.
Well, semi-excited.
The UFL survived its inaugural season and is back for year two.

And tonight is game one: St Lou/Houston
Line: St Louis -6, total 37'

I spent about two hours handicapping the UFL today (Yes, I actually DO have a life, it's just that I'm stuck home today recuperating, so I'm doing a lot of number crunching to pass the time and fight off boredom.)

Here's the method I used to handicap last year:

"It's difficult to beat a sport when you know the coach players and stats. It's even more difficult when you don't know much about the teams, the coaches, the players, and the stats, such as with a new league like the UFL.
I think one way to win is to find someone who thinks they know what they're doing but really doesn't, and . . . Fade them."

Small bets, just for some fun, action, and to test the theory.

I have a data sample of picks from 16 touts and sports "analysts" for tonight's game.
Here are the numbers:
St L 9, Hou 6, 1 Push;
Ov 2, Un 8
(Everyone gives their opinion on a side but not everyone gives out a play on the total.)

Using the basic premise that books don't stay in business by paying everyone I'll normally Fade the consensus play, for example tonight I'll take the Over.

Not going to be an easy to get a win with an Over tonight because:

Defenses are usually ahead of the offense in the early going of the season,
and . . .
There's lousy weather tonight with heavy rain in the forecast, which means they'll likely run the ball a lot and use up a lot of clock,
and . . .
Houston had the worst offense in the league last year and for some unfathomable reason they brought back the same coaching staff.

But what the hell - I haven't been able to bet on football since the Superbowl bowl and I'm jonesing just a bit.

Game time's not until another hour and a half from now so I'll wait to buy, thinking I can get the hook off the 37.
I'll try to stop back in with the number I end up buying.

My Play:
St L/Houston Ov (wait to buy)

Good luck for anyone venturing into the unknown with the UFL season two.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff, hope ya got the hook off.

Looking forward to more UFL content.

 

[RBD]

Thanks B.A.R,
I'll be stopping in with more UFL, and WNBA when it starts.

"Hope ya got the hook off."
This is where some people would say, "Yes, I did" because they don't want to take a loss.
But...
"It ain't me, babe. No, no, no it ain't me babe."
(Pardon the Dylanism, I watched A Complete Unknown last night. Kind of boring, just my op.)
FAKE RECORDS DO NOT HELP BETTORS.
They're employed by touts looking to scam forum members or insecure lifeless gits looking for attention and ill-gained respect.
One of the reasons I contribute here is that that BS doesn't fly at CTG.
So no, I didn't get the hook off.
Should have though, (but everything's easy in hindsight, yes?)

Record: 0-1
Recap: None of the books I use dropped the hook off the 37', and I'm not one for buying points and paying higher juice.
Game landed on 37.

Took an ugly loss thanks in part to not one, not two, but THREE "point after" attempts failed.

Not to mention Houston's overall suckage.

From yesterday's post:
"Houston had the worst offense in the league last year and for some unfathomable reason they brought back the same coaching staff."
I counted at least three times during the game that the announcers commented on Houston coach CJ Johnson's decision making, using a "What the hell is he thinking??!!" tone.

From play calling to clock management and using timeouts, he's just all-around-awful.
When I watch this guy I find myself wondering if he understands the object of the game is to score more points than the other team.

Game one is in the books and he's well on his way to exceeding last year's superior effort that had the Roughnecks finish the season at 1-9. (After which the owners will inexplicably sign him up for another year.)

Anyway . . .
Here are tonight's numbers:
SA 3, ARL 11
Ov 6, Un 3

LY when the Over had at least three or more picks than the Under it won at a 67% clip.
Today's game qualifies and I'm on it.

LY when one side had a consensus of four or more than the other team they hit at 63%.
Arlington qualifies tonight.

The Renegades dropped from an opening +3 to the current +2/+2'.
With the various options for point after plays (you can go for one, two or three points) not getting a full field goal isn't as relevant in the UFL as it is in the NFL. Still, not buying at the right time and getting the best number is never a good thing.

Today, same thing for me as last night.
Taking the Over.
Four and a half hours left before game time and the Under has higher juice on it so again I'm going to wait to buy this and hope I can get that hook off.

My Play:
SA/Arl Ov (wait to buy)

 

[twinkie13]

Great stuff

GL

 

[RBD]

Thanks, Twinkie.

Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-1

Review: Nailed the Over on SA/ARL.
Ended up getting it at 38, not the best number but it landed on 42 so all is good.

Here are the numbers for today:

Michigan 8, Memphis 4
Ov 2, Un 8

Birmingham 15, DC 0
Ov 8, Un 1

So what do I have based on last year's notes?

LY when the Over had at least three or more picks than the Under it won at a 67% clip.
Yesterday the SA/Arlington game qualified.
And it went Over.
Over in Birmingham/DC qualifies today.

LY when one side had a consensus of four or more than the other team they hit at 63%.
Yesterday, Arlington qualified and won.
Michigan and Birmingham qualify today.

LY teams that were a unanimous pick were 1-2 ATS.
Birmingham is a unanimous choice today.

So I have a couple possible plays today, based on numbers above from last year. (Note - it's sports betting, so as we all know, just because something worked last year doesn't mean it will work this year. But with little else to go on in the way of history, stats, and experience from watching coaches and teams it's as good a way to handicap as anything else I have.)

I was going to take Michigan but the game opened at Mich -3' and is now sitting at -7.
I have a general rule that if the line moves three points or more against me because I didn't buy it early - stay off the game.

Not sure what I'll play today, if anything. I have some basketball action to keep me amused. If I add a UFL play I'll post an update in this thread, share the numbers above in case anyone was looking for edges or angles to make a UFL play today.

Good luck with your play today...

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 0-1 CORRECTION 1-1
Review: Won with the Ov in the Arlington game.


The big question going into tonight's game is this - was perennial powerhouse Birmingham's last game a fluke or have they fallen off their pedestal?
They were seven point Favs and lost SU.

Last week I had 16 touts/'cappers to chart, for tonight's game I've only got six (slackers are late getting their picks posted.)
I'm on the road and don't have my data with me but I think it was five for Michigan and only one for Birmingham.
For totals, more picks for Under than Over.

Update: Add two more picks for Michigan and one for the Under, one for the Over.

What am I playing, and am I playing just for my own action or do I have something I would recommend as a posted play here?
Hell if I know.
But if I have action I'll post it.
If not I'll definitely be back with something tomorrow.

Good luck with your play today...

Update #2: Another reason why it sucks not having my data with me - Michigan is now the Fav. They've gone from +2' to -2.
And what was the record last year when teams flip flop and the opening Dog became the Fav?
I DON'T KNOW BECAUSE I DON'T HAVE MY FRIGGIN' NUMBERS WITH ME!!!
Were there any games last year where the Fav became the dog? I don't know.

No matter, I want some action on the game.
Just a gut feel play but I'm going with the "Last week was an off day for Birmingham" theory.
For a couple reasons:

1) They're definitely not as bad as they looked last week.

2) They're 3-0 lifetime vs Michigan, they always seem to find a way to pull it out in the end.
Always take Skip over Nolan.

3) Mr. Magoo is not going to get sacked eight times again (yes, he was sacked eight times last week, an incredibly embarrassing seven in the second half alone. )

I see lines everywhere from +1' to +2.
I think more money comes in the same way so I'll wait a little bit before buying this one.

My Play:
Birmingham + (wait to buy)

Update #3:
Most people can't get +2 so I'll use +1.
First play of the game and Magoo gets injured, hurts his throwing arm. On the sidelines.
What's this mean?
About to find out.
Corral in at QB.

Update #4: Okay this is going to be trouble.
I watch Corral throw deep and he stares at the receiver the entire way; incomplete. Couple plays later he drops back to pass, again he stares at the receiver the entire time, incomplete again.
Magoo's on the sideline telling the coach he's ready to come in but Skip stays with Corral who rewards his coach's faith by...
staring at the receiver the entire play and gets picked off while they were in field goal range.
Ugh.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 2-1

Review: Banked a unit with Birmingham yesterday, despite some bad play calling and decision making from Skip Holtz.

Here are the final poll numbers on Birm/Mich:
Birm 4, Mich 12
Ov 2, Un 8

The consensus was with Mich and they lost.
The consensus was on the Under and it won.

Here are some basic stats from week one:

Favs were 2-2.
Overs were 2-2.

My tout/sports writers consensus numbers show a record of 3-1 on sides and 2-2 on totals.

Today I have:
Mem 3, DC 9
Ov 0, Un 9

This game would have been a lot easier for me to make a play on if Birmingham lost again yesterday, the thought being that last week DC beat a team that was on a downward turn, and I would grab Memphis plus the points.
But after watching how dominant the Stallions were yesterday against a decent Michigan team I can't bet against DC, even though they're in a situation where I expect them to come out a little flat after last week's upset.

Lot of sports on the board today. Not sure I'll be playing this one, posting stats for info purposes in case anyone's looking for edges.

Good luck with your play today...

 

[RBD]

Record: 2-1

Update:
I'm trying to watch Florida/Auburn but it's just not holding my interest (tournament saturation reached?)
It's a decent game, it's not a blowout or anything, but I find myself channel flippin' so I know when the UFL game comes on I'll be watching that instead.
Which means . . . I need action

Here are the final numbers on my poll for the game:

Mem 5 DC 11

Ov 0 Un 10

Have to practice what I preach, as in...

"It’s always easy in hindsight but I did make a big mistake and so did anyone else who didn’t bet DC last week. Using the basic premise that the books don’t stay in business by paying everyone, I’ll normally Fade the consensus play.”

What was the biggest consensus on the board last week?

Birmingham -7, a unanimous pick at 15-0.

Final score: DC 18, Birmingham 11.

BIG mistake laying off that one."

Which makes my action on this one obvious.

Mem/DC Ov 37 (Buying it now at 37. It's the WAN and despite some houses having extra juice on the Under I don't think I'll be able to get a hook off so I'm just going to grab it at 37.)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 2-2

Missed with the Over last night.
Poll numbers for today in case anyone was wondering or looking for edges:

Hou 1, Arl 15
Ov 4, Un 6

SA 7, St L 7
Ov 6, Un 3

Got home too late to post the early game, if I have anything on the late game I'll be back.

 

[RBD]

Record: 2-2

Some general numbers for the UFL after two weeks of play:
Favs 2-2, Dogs 2-2
Over 2-6, Un 6-2

No edges for sides.
The Under has been profitable in the first two weeks.
Last year the record for the Under in the first two weeks was profitable too, at 5-1-2.

People looking at this year’s 6-2 are likely going to do the same thing a lot of people did last year after the 5-1 start: they’ll look to play the Under again in week three.

How did that work out for them last year?

In week three, the Over went 4-0.
The books adjust.
And offenses start to gel.
Something to keep in mind if you’re considering jumping on the Under trend this week.

Looking at my poll numbers (a poll of handicaps/analysis from touts and sports writers, explained in posts above), what do I have to work with going into week three?

Unanimous picks are 0-1 on sides (a Fav) and 1-0 on totals (an Under.)

Favs where one team had four or more picks than the other side are 2-3.

Unders where there were four or more picks than the Over are 6-1. After the Under went 4-0 last week and is now at 6-2 for the season, I expect the poll numbers to be lopsided towards the Under again this week.

Here's an interesting but not unexpected bit of info:
I’m using 15 “handicappers” going into week three.
Of those 15 only ONE has a winning ATS record on sides.
Three are losing juice at 4-4.
That means 11 of 15 have losing records.

Totals aren’t much better.
Only five of the 15 have a winning record.

This is why I decided to try a Fade the Touts methodology for handicapping the UFL, where I have no history of my own handicapping models to rely on, or long term stats on the teams and coaches in the new league.
It's not my preferred method of capping, slightly looney if you ask me, but it's small money just for some football fun and action only, so no big thing. I love crunching numbers.

Tonight's poll:
Arl 2, Birmingham 7
Ov 2, Un 3

Arlington is 2-0, Birmingham is 1-1.
The line opened Birmingham -3', 40'
Now at Birmingham -4, 38'

Birmingham looked good last week, beating Michigan 21-12 but there's still that week one 18-11 loss to DC to consider.
They're without starting quarterback Magoo (sic) which may not be a bad thing because he looked lost in week 1 (took eight sacks, some were the O line's fault but some were on him for holding on to the ball too long.)
In week 2 he got knocked out on the first play of the game and backup Matt Corral came in and got the Stallions the win.

As expected after the way the totals played out in week one and two, money is coming in on the Under tonight and the total is dropping.
So I'm going the opposite way.
Eventually the pendulum always levels out.
And if this league is going to survive, the games have to get more exciting and less boring, meaning more scoring.

The total can be bought at 38' at one of the sponsors here but 39 is the commonly available number that most people can get so that's what I'll use.

My Play:
ARL/Birmingham Ov 39

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 2-3

Review: I had over 39 in Arl/Birm.
With just seconds left on the clock neither team had scored in double digits.
COMBINED they were barely in double digits at 9-3.
When the final results were in, I only missed the over by TWENTY points.
I'm losing 75% of the time I bet on an Over in the UFL this season.
What's that old definition of insanity?
"Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."
Maybe so, but I'm using the Over again today.

Yes, I've lost 75% of my bets on the Over but it
sounds better when it's put like this:
I'm 1-3 on Overs.
Down two units and juice, easily recoverable.

Today we have Houston at Memphis.
Here are the poll numbers:
Hou 3, Mem 5
Ov 2, Un 6.
Totals where four or more picked the Under are 6-1. And this is the most likely game for an Under on this week's slate.
So why am I going with the Over?
Because it's the most likely game for an Under on this week's slate.

How bad are these two teams?
Memphis is averaging just 12 PPG on O.
And they're the better of the two!
Houston is averaging just 7.5 PPG.
So how the hell am I going to get an Over with numbers like those??!!
Here's how - most sports betters lose.
All of them bet on games that look good to them.
So if they lose betting on games that look good, maybe they should try betting games that don't look good once in awhile?
I'm not losing, I'm treading water (though not in UFL thus far) but today I'm going to do exactly that - play a game that doesn't look good.
Like using an Over in this one.

Maybe I can get some help from their lousy defenses?
Hou gives up an average of 21 PPG.
Memphis gives up an average of 21.5.
That helps my play a little bit.

With low expectations for both offenses this number opened at 35'. And that's where it sits right now.

Last year's two scores came in at 18-12 and 19-12, both won by Memphis, both beneath the 35' the books hung on this one.

I don't have a strong feel for whether this line's going to go up or down before kickoff in 3' hours. I think there's a better chance it drops than goes up but I'm going to buy it now.

Unders have now cashed in seven of nine UFL games this season, but it's "Once more unto the breach" for me...
Hou/Memphis Ov 35'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 2-4
Recap: Second time this year I lost an Over by the hook.
Had Ov 35', it landed on 35.

Making matters even worse, I didn't do what I usual do when I think the line is going to move in my favor - post a "Wait to buy" notice on the game, opting to take the available number at the time of my post
From yesterday: "I don't have a strong feel for whether this line's going to go up or down before kickoff in 3' hours. I think there's a better chance it drops than goes up but I'm going to buy it now."

It closed at 34', a winner for better's savvy enough to wait on betting the Over.

Today, I may be banging my head against the wall but I'm going right back to the Over in the morning game. The Under CAN'T keep coming in, can it?
Hoping to get a little reversion toward the mean kicking in today.

SA/Mich Ov 34'

Poll numbers if anyone's interested:
SA 2, Mich 7
Ov 4, Un 4

DC 3, St L 8
Ov 4, Un 2

In the first two games this week the team favored by the polls has lost SU.

Good luck to anyone else who's playing this league.

 

[Teapot9]

That review just now was pure theatrics

 

[RBD]

Teapot, thanks for stopping by.

I like the way they use reviews in the UFL (the NBA could definitely learn something from them, and cut down on their too-many and too-long game interruptions.)
But I don't like the guys they have doing it.
Or to be more accurate - I don't like some of the calls I've seen them make.

What's the point of having replay reviews when they still get the call wrong?

Yesterday I saw Pereira rule a pass complete when one of the replay angles showed space between one of the receiver's hands and the ball, as he was going out of bounds.
Even stranger - he said the player was inbounds because, "His shin was down inbounds before his knee was down out of bounds."
Can someone explain to me how a shin could be down before a knee when the guy is falling forward??!! It's a physical impossibility, no?

And Blandino is pompous and irritating to listen to.
Like I said, I like the rules, just not a fan of the guys enforcing them.

 

[Teapot9]

Tailed you on this over

 

[DOUBLEUP4LIFE]

I have no idea how you guys could watch this abomination...Was stuck in recovery after umbilical hernia surgery watching a game the other day ...Corral threw the ball into triple coverage about 15 times , O line couldn't hold a single block for 1 yards rushing and they still won a slop fest ...I've seen far better football at the U7 level.....

But as a degenerate gambler , if you guys can make a buck on it , best of luck brothers

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 3-4
Review: Won with SA Over last time in.

Tonight's game features Memphis at Michigan.
These two played in week one, Michigan came out on top 26-12.

Going into week four here are some basic UFL numbers:
Favs 4-8
Ov 4-8

Basic numbers from the polls I use:
Favs that have four or more picks than the Dog are just 2-5 ATS.
Unders that have four or more picks than the Over are 6 - 1.

I'm having difficulty getting some poll numbers this week.
A few of the handicapper/writers/touts I've been using have stopped posting their picks.
Not sure why, but maybe it's because most of them had losing records.
In fact, of the 11 I went to chart this week every one has a losing record ATS on sides. Only two of the 11 have a winning record on totals.

Game time is about five hours from now and as of this moment only a few of the 11 have posted their picks.
I also have picks from two new guys that started posting picks.
I'll update later a little before game time if anyone else is added but for right now here's what I have:
Mem 3, Mich 3
Ov 3, Un 3
No help at all, no edges to Fade.

No idea what I'm playing tonight, if I'm playing.
Like I said, I'll update when I get back home later today.
Hopefully I have something to help make a play.

Good luck to anyone trying their hand at the UFL this week.

 

[B.A.R.]

Appreciate the content man!

 

[RBD]

Record: 3-4

Here's poll numbers for the three games left this weekend

St L 4, Arl 5
Ov 2, Un 7

Birm 6, Houston 4
Ov 4, Un 3

SA 1, DC 6
Ov 4, Un 4

Basic numbers from the polls I use:

Favs that have four or more picks than the Dog are just 2-5 ATS.

Unders that have four or more picks than the Over are 6 - 1.

Differential of five on the total for this morning's game. That's a 6-1 spot (see the sentence above.)

Too close to game time to use it as a play here (I'd fade that 6-1) but I will have a play for tomorrow's game.

Good luck to everyone today...

 

[wiseplayer]

Record: 3-4

Here's poll numbers for the three games left this weekend

St L 4, Arl 5
Ov 2, Un 7

Birm 6, Houston 4
Ov 4, Un 3

SA 1, DC 6
Ov 4, Un 4

Basic numbers from the polls I use:

Favs that have four or more picks than the Dog are just 2-5 ATS.

Unders that have four or more picks than the Over are 6 - 1.

Differential of five on the total for this morning's game. That's a 6-1 spot (see the sentence above.)

Too close to game time to use it as a play here (I'd fade that 6-1) but I will have a play for tomorrow's game.

Good luck to everyone today...

4 or more picks? What do you mean? GL!

 

[RBD]

4 or more picks? What do you mean? GL!

Here's an explanation, from previous posts in this thread:

"It's difficult to beat a sport when you KNOW the coach, players and stats. It's even more difficult when you don't know much about the teams, the coaches, the players, and the stats, such as with a new league like the UFL.
I think one way to win is to find someone who thinks they know what they're doing but really doesn't, and . . . Fade them.

So, I take a poll of touts and sportswriters offering an analysis of the games and look for Fades.

"It's not my preferred method of capping, slightly looney if you ask me, but it's small money just for some football fun and action only, so no big thing. I love crunching numbers."

"Four or more picks" refers to when one side or total from the poll has four or more picks than the other side.

For example, looking at today's poll of picks from different cappers for Arlington/St Louis, two of them said take the Over, seven of them said take the Under. That's a difference of five.
The record for that play (when four or more say take the Under) going in was 6-1.
I said above "I'd fade it" because jumping on already established trends is not a winning way to bet.
Over time, stats level out so I liked the odds of that record going to 6-2 better than 7-1.
Not a written in stone 100% rule, not something I do all the time, but in general I prefer to either lay off an already established trend or go the other way.

I came here to post the play but I pulled it mid-write up because I noticed it was only about 5 minutes left till game time, not enough time for anyone to see the play and bet ON it or AGAINST.
Same reason I don't use fake lines or post live in game basketball bets - what good does it do to post plays that most bettors can't get?
With live lines, by the time people read the post, go to their book, and try to get a bet in the line has changed.

I lost track of time and got in here later than I thought. Missed out on a W with this one, a pick 6 with time running out pushed the game Over.

Good luck to you with your plays today.