Performify's Picks for UFC 87
This may not be a popular opinion, but UFC 87, despite being headlined by a few big names, really doesn't do much for me.
Eleven of the 20 fighters on the card have two fights or less in the organization. Five of the fighters are making their UFC debuts. And I'm not too interested in the headliner for reasons that I outline below. I'm also strongly doubtful that Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta will produce the "Fight of the Year" the way it's being hyped, but I'm certainly hoping to be proven wrong there.
Call me a pessimist if you will, but I have a hunch that this card is going to be less than stellar from a fan's perspective. Hopefully we can spice it up nicely with a few well-placed bets.
Results of 5-0 for +5.4 units on
Performify's Picks for "EliteXC: Unfinished Business" brings my recent running total (since UFC 75) for my public predictions to 49-40 for +19.375 units.
As usual, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com's recommended sportsbook,
Bodog. If you're interested in learning more about
betting on MMA, check out the series of articles in our
MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series. You can also stay up to date with the latest MMA and UFC odds directly via our new
UFC Odds page.
MAIN CARD:
Georges St. Pierre (-325 via Bookmaker
) vs. Jon Fitch (+260)
Former Purdue wrestler Jon Fitch holds a 17-2 MMA record and is a perfect 8-0 in the UFC. He is a strong wrestler, but his submission and striking skills are not at the same level as his wrestling ability. However, his strikes do pack power. Six of his past 10 fights have gone to decision, with two of those decisions split. Fitch's past three fights are a unanimous-decision victory over Chris Wilson, a split-decision win over Diego Sanchez, and a second-round submission victory over Roan Carniero.
Georges St. Pierre needs no introduction to UFC fans, so I will not waste your time with one except to say that "Rush" is 10-2 in the UFC, 16-2 in his MMA career, and the Canadian is perhaps the best athlete in the UFC. He is also unquestionably one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world right now, and he is going to demonstrate that effectively on Saturday against Fitch.
Yes, Fitch is undefeated in the UFC. And yes, he is a dominant wrestler. But there are a couple problems. St. Pierre has dominant performances over three fighters with very similar profiles: Matt Hughes, Sean Sherk and Josh Koscheck. St. Pierre's recent domination of Koscheck at UFC 74 is especially telling. Koscheck is an elite-level wrestler with a better collegiate wrestling pedigree than Fitch, and you can argue that both Fitch's standup skills and athleticism are even less honed than those of Koscheck. Fitch does have an edge over Koscheck in jiu-jitsu skills, especially from his back, but the point is he does not possess the sort of offensive firepower necessary to compete on the level of St. Pierre, given St. Pierre's repeatedly demonstrated ability to demolish top-tier wrestlers and grapplers.
While you cannot always count on "MMAth," you should pay close attention to fights against similar stylistic matchups. Both Fitch and Koscheck are finding great deals of success in MMA, and I respect them both greatly. However, their MMA skills are fundamentally one-dimensional compared to St. Pierre's well-rounded game; it's a cliché, but he's "on another level."
If you have access to them, go back and look at Fitch's past five fights. The same Jon Fitch who could not finish Wilson, Sanchez or Kuniyoshi Hironaka, or who was manhandled for a round by Roan Carneiro, has no significant chance of upsetting St. Pierre here.
Look for St. Pierre to win the battle on the feet and punish Fitch every time he shoots. Look for "Rush" to neutralize Fitch's takedowns and wrestling abilities by putting him on his back like he did against Koscheck. Unlike that fight, do not expect this bout to head to decision. Now that St. Pierre has regained his welterweight title, this will be a five-round fight, not a three-round fight as was the match against Koscheck. Look for St. Pierre to wear Fitch down and eventually secure a TKO victory from ground and pound late in the bout.
This line currently assigns St. Pierre a 77% chance of victory. The betting line for this fight opened much closer, with St. Pierre only a -220 favorite (a 69% chance of victory) and was worth a multi-unit play at the early line. Money has poured in on St. Pierre since betting opened, and it continues to do so. While there is obviously some point at which Fitch becomes a good bet as the underdog, I think it is on the other side of +400 (a 20% chance of winning), and I do not see the line getting there.
Brock Lesnar (-240) vs. Heath Herring (+190)
Despite his pro wrestling background, Brock Lesnar is actually an accomplished wrestler; he was a four-time All-American wrestler at the University of Minnesota, was a two-time Big Ten champion, finished second in the 1999 NCAA wrestling championships, and placed first in the 2000 championships. He has been training MMA for almost two full years under Greg Nelson alongside former UFC lightweight champion Sean Sherk. Lesnar also trains with Eric Paulson of Combat Submission Wrestling in Los Angeles.
Lesnar is one of the most powerful athletes in the UFC with incredible strength, quickness and, of course, dominant wrestling ability. This is a man so freakishly athletic that he ran a 4.7 second 40-yard dash while weighing 290 pounds. Lesnar is 1-1 in MMA and 0-1 after losing to Frank Mir at UFC 81.
Heath Herring holds an extensive 28-13 MMA record and is 2-2 in the UFC. "The Texas Crazy Horse" is a hard-hitting striker with limited grappling and wrestling ability. Herring has not won a fight by submission in almost five years. His striking skills are underrated; he's dropped each of his past six opponents to the canvas at least once in each fight going back to his fight against Yoshihiro Nakao in K-1. There, Herring dropped Nakao with a big hook before the fight even started.
To see how the Lesnar-Herring fight should go down, you need to look at only two of Herring's previous fights. Look at Herring's unanimous-decision loss to Jake O'Brien at UFC Fight Night 8, and look at Herring's recent razor-thin victory over Cheick Kongo at UFC 82. In both of those fights, Herring was absolutely dominated on the ground. Jake O'Brien, a strong wrestler, utilized a lay-and-pray style to pull out a surprising upset over Herring. O'Brien was able to take down Herring almost at will and keep him down, and Herring was able to mount almost no offense or escapes from his back. Against Kongo, a notoriously poor grappler, Herring was taken down, mounted and back mounted,in the very first round.
A lot of people I respect believe that Lesnar is a prohibitive favorite here, and I cannot disagree. Herring's complete inability to defend the takedown and his recent incompetence when on his back puts him at a tremendous disadvantage in this fight. He and his camp are surely aware of his limitations, and you have to assume he's been working on timing knees, leg submissions from the bottom, and exposing the back of his head hoping Lesnar gets overaggressive again.
A lot of people are worried about betting on Lesnar given that he's only had two fights and lost his most recent, but this is a match that Lesnar should win and win easily. Unless Herring can KO Lesnar coming in on his first shot attempt, look for Herring to get dumped on his back in the first 30 seconds. Unless he can force a restart by turning the back of his head into a punch like Frank Mir, he'll be on his back with Lesnar pounding on him for the remainder of the round. Rinse and repeat until we get a TKO stoppage, which might be no longer than about a minute into the fight.
Kenny Florian (-145 via Bookmaker
) vs. Roger Huerta (+135)
Everyone from Dana White on down is predicting this fight to be an early contender for "Fight of the Year." I am afraid this will not be as competitive or entertaining as people are hoping.
Kenny Florian holds a 9-3 MMA record, 7-2 in the UFC. He is on a four-fight win streak since falling short in a title shot against Sean Sherk at UFC 64. In that span, Florian has submission wins over Dokonjonosuke Mishima, Alvin Robinson, an injury win over Din Thomas, and a TKO victory over Joe Lauzon. The recent rules clarification on elbow strikes from the bottom have opened the door for 12-to-6 elbows from the back, which really helps Florian in this fight, and expect his infamous razorblade elbows to be even more dangerous, likely quickly opening a cut on his opponent's hairline.
Roger Huerta holds a 20-1-1 MMA record and is a perfect 6-0 in the UFC. Huerta's notable wins include -- well, therein lies the problem. Huerta has amassed a perfect record in the UFC and an impressive overall record, but he has not faced anyone notable in his entire career. Most of his fights in the UFC have come against rookies entering the UFC for the first time, such Jason Dent, John Halverson, Leonard Garcia and Alberto Crane. In fact, Huerta's only UFC fight against a non-rookie was Clay Guida at the TUF 6 Finale. Let's take a quick look at the UFC records and contract status of Huerta's six UFC opponents in chronological order:
Dent: 0-2, no longer in the UFC
Halverson: 0-2, no longer in the UFC
Garcia: 1-2, no longer in the UFC
Evans: 0-2, no longer in the UFC
Crane: 0-2, no longer in the UFC
Guida: 3-3. Still with the organization.
So, Huerta's six defeated UFC opponents have a combined lifetime UFC record of 4-13, with five of the six no longer fighting for the organization.
Simply put, Huerta is nowhere near the polished fighter that his record or his publicity makes him out to be. He is an undisciplined striker with poor defense. He has demonstrated good athleticism but has not demonstrated serious jiu-jitsu skills. Huerta has a significant edge in wrestling skills, but Florian is tremendously dangerous off his back. The most telling comparison for me is looking at Huerta's fight against Crane. Crane had not fought in nearly three years, was not in shape, and was a one-dimensional grappler with mediocre striking skills, but he was still able to take Huerta's back, mount him, and threaten him with several close submission attempts.
Local Minnesotan Huerta will have the crowd behind him, but I think we see a one-sided fight here. Florian's polished Muay Thai skills will cause trouble for Huerta standing. Huerta will take the fight to the ground, where he'll be subjected to dangerous elbows from the bottom, and I expect he'll be reversed and either submitted or TKO'd with elbows from the top. "Ken-Flo" by stoppage in the first round.
Manny Gamburyan (-325) vs. Rob Emerson (+275 via Bookmaker
)
Runner-up on "The Ultimate Fighter 5" Manny Gamburyan is 27 with a 2-1 UFC record (8-2 MMA). Gamburyan is a compact fighter skilled in judo with incredible strength-based submissions. He also has a history of chronic shoulder problems, which have plagued his career. Sadly for "Pitbull," these types of injuries never really heal.
Fellow "TUF" alumnus Rob Emerson is also 27, and he is 1-0 in the UFC with a bizarre no contest due to a double TKO against Gray Maynard at The Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale. Emerson is a strong striker with excellent Muay Thai skills. And I believe he has the tools to upset Gamburyan here.
Gamburyan's typical approach for a fight is to bullrush inside to negate his significant height and reach disadvantage, toss his opponent to the mat, and either pound them out with short strikes or submit them. Emerson demonstrated solid takedown defense against the tough Shooto veteran Keita Nakamura in their fight, and with his takedown defense and significant striking advantage, I think he can punish the compact Gamburyan enough while standing to make a worthwhile play as the heavy underdog. At +250, Emerson is being given only a 28% chance to win, and I think his advantages combined with Manny's significant chances for re-injury make him the smart play. Emerson by TKO in the second round.
Demian Maia (-260) vs. Jason McDonald (+200)
Demian Maia is 30 with a perfect 7-0 MMA record. He is 2-0 in the UFC with submission wins over Ryan Jenson and Ed Herman. Maia possesses some of the best BJJ in MMA with a tremendous grappling pedigree, including a division win at the 2007 ADCC tournament, a win at the Pan American championships in 2006, and three World Cup championships.
Jason McDonald is a veteran fighter with a 21-9 MMA record and is 4-2 in the UFC. McDonald's two UFC losses are to some of the top fighters in the division: Rich Franklin and Yushin Okami. He has beaten Ed Herman, Chris Leben, Rory Singer and Joe Doersken. "The Athlete" has excellent conditioning, an area where Maia is suspect. McDonald is also a very well-rounded and experienced fighter.
Maia possesses a sufficiently well-rounded MMA game -- unlike many skilled grapplers who have transitioned to the UFC but have not demonstrated other skills and have ultimately found little success. However, this fight with McDonald will be a great litmus test to see just how well rounded Maia is. If he can keep his game sufficiently balanced with decent wrestling and striking skills, he should have little trouble taking McDonald down and submitting him. However, if McDonald can drag this into the later rounds to tire out Maia -- or if he can force his opponent to be one-dimensional -- he can definitely pull out the upset.
The current line assigns Maia a 72% chance of winning, and while I think that is a little high, the odds are not high enough on McDonald to make me want to bet him. I'll predict Maia by submission in the second round, but I think this fight will be a lot closer than the line indicates.
PRELIMINARY CARD:
Luke Cummo (-140) vs. Tamdan McCrory (+110)
Luke Cummo holds a 6-5 MMA record and is 3-3 in the UFC. Tamdan McCrory holds an 8-1 MMA record but is only 1-1 in the UFC after being submitted by Akihiro Gono at UFC 78. Cummo is generally a striker, but he is at a significant reach disadvantage to the lanky "Barn Cat." Cummo's unanimous decision loss to Luigi Fioravanti at UFC 82 makes me think that he will struggle here with McCrory. The odds are close for a reason: if you feel like a coinflip with odds slightly in your favor, take McCrory. Personally, I will stay away from this fight, though I predict McCrory by TKO in the second.
Cheick Kongo (-500) vs. Dan Evensen (+350)
Cheick Kongo has proven to be a bit of an MMA enigma. He holds an 11-4-1 MMA record and is primarily known as a strong kickboxer, but he most recently embarrassed Heath Herring on the ground at UFC 82 -- despite losing a split decision in what was a horrible fight. Kongo holds wins over Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic and Assuerio Silva but has lost to Carmelo Marrero in addition to Herring.
Evenson holds a 10-2 MMA record and is making his UFC debut. He is primarily a kickboxer but also holds a purple belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu.
The two fighters share a common opponent; Evenson lost to Christian Wellisch by TKO in the IFC in 2006. Wellisch's next fight was his UFC debut, against Kongo, where he was KO'd with a brutal knee in the first round.
Kongo is too inconsistent to be worth a play as an 83% favorite to win the fight; however, I cannot recommend a bet on Evensen except as a flier. This fight could either turn into an exciting kickboxing match or a mediocre grappling match. I am expecting the latter but hoping for the former. My prediction: Kongo by unanimous decision in a snoozer.
Andre Gusmao (-215) vs. Jon Jones (+175)
Former IFL fighter Andre Gusmao holds a perfect 5-0 MMA record and is making his UFC debut. The Brazilian is a BJJ black belt and also an expert in the stylized martial-art dance of Capoeira. His opponent, Jon Jones, is 21 with a 5-0 MMA record. He's been doing MMA for only nine months; he fought three times in April, once in June, and once in July before getting the call to fight for the UFC. He was a junior college national wrestling champion for Iowa Central and was a Greco Roman wrestling All-American.
While Gusmao has a significant edge in experience and will have the edge in submission skills, Jones' wrestling ability should be enough to keep the fight standing and utilize his striking to win. However, if nerves get the best of him, he could easily revert to his wrestling training and find himself leaving his arm or neck exposed for a quick submission against a dangerous opponent. Still, I like Jones as a moderate underdog, but the line just isn't attractive enough to make me want to bet it with other, better bets on the card. Still, Jones by TKO in the second.
Chris Wilson (-330) vs. Steve Bruno (+260)
Former IFL fighter Chris Wilson trains with Team Quest alongside Dan Henderson, Matt Lindland and Sokoudjou. He had a tough welcome the UFC, facing Jon Fitch in his debut at UFC 82. However, Wilson showed ability in the fight despite losing a unanimous decision.
American Top Team's Steve Bruno holds an 11-3 MMA record and is fighting in the UFC for the first time. Bruno was supposed to make his UFC debut last year, but he tore a pectoral muscle in training and had to undergo surgery. However, Bruno says that his chest is now "better than it was before I got hurt." He has not fought since April 2007 thanks to the injury. Bruno is well traveled; he has fought in Korea, where he was the Spirit Martial Challenge champion.
I like Bruno here as a heavy underdog. He trains with a top team, he was active duty military (a Navy rescue swimmer) before becoming a full-time fighter, and he is well rounded with good Muay Thai, jiu jitsu and has a background in karate. Despite the potential for "ring rust," I think he has a better chance of upsetting Wilson than the 28% he is being given by the betting line. Bruno by TKO in the second round.
Ben Saunders (-260) vs. Ryan Thomas (+200)
A contestant on the sixth season of "The Ultimate Fighter," Ben Saunders is an American Top Team fighter with a 5-0-2 MMA record. On the show, Saunders lost to Tommy Speer in the quarterfinals. He made his official UFC debut at The Ultimate Fighter 6 Finale, where the BJJ purple belt defeated Dan Barrera by unanimous decision.
Ryan Thomas is a former Division I wrestler with a 9-1 MMA record. This will be his sixth fight in 2008. He has only been out of the first round twice in 10 fights, with three KOs and six submissions to his credit. I do not know enough about Thomas to recommend betting him because I have only seen about four minutes of tape on him across three fights. Thomas has shown some potential, and with his history of quick finishes, we could certainly see this fight make its way on to the televised card.
Performify's Picks for my public record:
- Georges St. Pierre (-325) : 3.25u to win 1u
- Brock Lesnar (-240) : 1.2u to win .5u
- Kenny Florian (-145) : 1.45u to win 1u
- Rob Emerson (+275) : .2u to win .55u
- Steve Bruno (+260): .5u to win 1.3u
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