UFC 317:TOPURIA/OLIVEIRA

mrpickem

mrpickem

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UFC 317:TOPURIA/OLIVEIRA​

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

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  • Jhonata Diniz(8-1) vs Alvin Hines (7-0)...Heavyweights open the night with Diniz welcoming Hines in his UFC debut. DIniz won his first 2 int he octagon before losing to Marcin Tybura last Nov. Hines is a short-notice replacement for Justin Tafa, and looked completely out of place at the ceremonial weigh-ins. Even at 7-0 with 6 finishes mostly in the LFA, i don't expect much from "Goozie". Odd are prohibitive as well, so I'll look for something creating, but not laying -450 straight on Diniz.
  • Niko Price(16-8) vs Jacobe Smith(10-0)...Good ole Niko being served up as sacrificial lamb to a hot young, talented prospect. He's 8-8 with two no contests and always comes to fight. Smith impressed in his debut back in January, finishing Preston Parsons in just 73 seconds to dispatch Preston Parsons...fact is he has KO's his last 4 opponent and 8 of his 10 fights, 7 in round 1. Smith is very well-rounded and should be able to dictate where the fight goes. Niko is also well-rounded but will not have the speed to be competitive. Likely just a matter of how much damage he takes before the finish. Sometimes a fighters' durability can really be a detriment to their long term health. Probably the under is the way to go.
  • Terrance McKinney(16-7) vs Viacheslav Borshchev(8-5-1)...Look for "T.Wrecks" to be especially dangerous in round 1 as he likes to push hard out the gate. "Slava Claus" is a seasoned striker way better than his record indicates and if he survives the first 3-4 minutes his chances will improve drastically as the rounds go by...good chance he lands something solid when T's defense lapses. Slava will provide constant output and this should be a real dog fight in rounds 2 & 3, so I'll roll with the dog and over as well.
  • Viviane Araujo(13-6) vs Tracy Cortez(11-2)...two top 10 flyweights compete in the only ladies' bout tonight...Araugo is 38 and Cortez is younger/hungrier with way more upside.

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UFC 317:TOPURIA/OLIVEIRA​

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
  • 3/1.62 Jhonata Diniz wins inside distance -185
  • 2/1.80 Hines/Diniz Over 1½ -111
  • 2/8.50 Jacobe Smith wins in round 2 +425
  • 4/1.61 Smith/Price Under 1½ -249
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UFC 317:TOPURIA/OLIVEIRA​

Early Prelims:
❌3/1.62 Jhonata Diniz wins inside distance -185
✅2/1.80 Hines/Diniz Over 1½ -111
✅2/8.50 Jacobe Smith wins in round 2 +425
❌4/1.61 Smith/Price Under 1½ -249

ESPN Prelims:
  • 3/4.50 Viacheslav Borshchev +150
  • 2/3.66 Borshchev /McKinney Over 1½ +183
  • 3/1.46 Tracy Cortez -205
  • 4/3.20 Jose Delgado -125
  • 2/1.71 Delgado/Amil Under 2½ -117
  • 4/1.95 Gregory Rodrigues -205
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  • Hyder Amil(11-0) vs Jose Delgado(9-1)...With two very aggressive fighter, this should be a definite win for the fans. Amil has shown durability with the ability to keep pressure on even while taking damage. But Jose has finished all 9 fights he has won and has that special finishing ability. He has reach and power advantage, plus he's probably the more technical striker.
  • Jack Hermansson(24-8) vs Gregory Rodrigues(16-6)...Should be a banger with both men close to being true contenders. This should play out on the feet as a striking war, and I'll have to side with "Robocop" based on his power. Both fighters are actually quite similar in their skill set other than the edge in power.
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UFC 317:TOPURIA/OLIVEIRA​

Early Prelims:
❌3/1.62 Jhonata Diniz wins inside distance -185
✅2/1.80 Hines/Diniz Over 1½ -111
✅2/8.50 Jacobe Smith wins in round 2 +425
❌4/1.61 Smith/Price Under 1½ -249
ESPN Prelims:
❌3/4.50 Viacheslav Borshchev +150
❌2/3.66 Borshchev /McKinney Over 1½ +183
✅3/1.46 Tracy Cortez -205
✅4/3.20 Jose Delgado -125
✅2/1.71 Delgado/Amil Under 2½ -117
✅4/1.95 Gregory Rodrigues -205

Main Card:
  • 3/1.92 Felipe Lima -156
  • 3/2.86 Renato Moicano -105
  • 3/2.78 Dariush/Moicano Over 2½ -108
  • 3.45/3 Joshua Van -115
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  • Payton Talbott(9-1) vs Felipe Lima(14-1)... Be interesting how Talbot responds after his first loo, Lima lost his first fight and has how won 14 straight since. I can see Lima working his grappling game, and potentially tiring Talbot. Then he can outwork him and hold dominant positions more to gain easy decision.
  • Beneil Dariush(22-6-1) vs Renato Moicano(20-6-1)... Money is the more accurate striker and should be able to keep fight stands with his improved TDD. Beneil is very experienced and super durable, so the finish is unlikely. But I do see Moicano getting the W.
  • Brandon Royval(17-7) vs Joshua Van(14-2)... Van has been hot, going 6-1 in UFC and winning the last 4. He just fought 3 weeks ago Jun07 when he KO's Bruno Silva. Question, is he really ready for the top guys because he's jumping the line going all the way to the #1 contender in Royval, a guy who's only losses since 2018 were to 2 champs (Moreno & Pantoja). I think they may be rushing Van a bit, but WTF I like the kid, so I'll ride with him!
Wow, I hope Jack is alright, that was brutal AF Streamff - Easy video sharing

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The 317 card delivered from start to end with at least 10 solid bouts.

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Bonuses:​

Performance: Ilia Topuria...Ilia (17-0 MMA, 9-0 UFC) needed less than half a round to KO former champ Charles Oliveira (35-11 MMA, 23-11 UFC) and cement himself as the UFC’s new global superstar.
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Performance: Gregory Rodrigues...Rodrigues (17-6 MMA, 8-3 UFC) knocked out Jack Hermansson (24-9 MMA, 11-7 UFC) with one punch in round one. Then he delivered an unnecessary hammer fist to an unconscious opponent...almost certainly contributed to Hermansson’s extra-lengthy time on the canvas and hourlong observation by medical staff backstage.
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Fight of the Night: Joshua Van vs Brandon Royval...Van (14-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC) and Royval (17-8 MMA, 7-4 UFC) turned in the best fights in a long time. Van booked for this fight just three weeks after his most recent win, then engaged in an absolute war that set a record for most combined significant strikes in the flyweight division. Van got the unanimous decision win – then only about 35 minutes later came back out cageside – and had a faceoff with flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja after his win. Talk about a rocket to the top, in just three weeks, Van has two UFC wins, a bonus and now a likely title shot after being unranked a mere month ago.
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I finished with a decent night overall with loads of entertainment. Even though I didn't get a chance to post it, I did have Pantoja ITD and a small flyer on Charles. I expected Ilia to win, but thought the odds were way out of line, so I faded small. I made a small profit more at the top of the card although not counting it here.

UFC 317:TOPURIA/OLIVEIRA​

Early Prelims:
❌3/1.62 Jhonata Diniz wins inside distance -185
✅2/1.80 Hines/Diniz Over 1½ -111
✅2/8.50 Jacobe Smith wins in round 2 +425
❌4/1.61 Smith/Price Under 1½ -249
ESPN Prelims:
❌3/4.50 Viacheslav Borshchev +150
❌2/3.66 Borshchev /McKinney Over 1½ +183
✅3/1.46 Tracy Cortez -205
✅4/3.20 Jose Delgado -125
✅2/1.71 Delgado/Amil Under 2½ -117
✅4/1.95 Gregory Rodrigues -205
Main Card:
❌3/1.92 Felipe Lima -156
❌3/2.86 Renato Moicano -105
✅3/2.78 Dariush/Moicano Over 2½ -108
✅3.45/3 Joshua Van -115
[8-6 +6.40u]
...and I'm still staying in the green on the year even after recent struggles
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