Huge women's matchup, especially in the career/legacy of one Amanda Nunes. Several other solids bouts warrant the numbers name and should make for a very good show in Texas.
Finished strong on last weeks London card for a decent +10u day, hope to keep it rolling
Cosce Early KO ...Cosce is a powerful wrestler, yet as seen last time out, he doesn't mind a striking affair. Considering just how poor Diamond’s TDD is, you’d think Cosce will fall back onto his wrestling and rain punishment from top control.
Negumereanu ...Battle of the padded records, lol. Fair play to Negumereanu in picking up a three-fight streak, but damn...the competition was fiercely flawed! The Romanian’s chin is pure concrete, allowing him to walk down opponents and continually push an uncomfortable pace. Ihor Potieria is the more diverse striker with a decent bit of power, but the real question is whether Potieria can maintain the pace for three rounds.
Edwards Decision ...Kim has struggled to get fights to the mat of late, a crucial pathway to defeat Edwards. Edwards has struggled finding the reactive combos that saw her succeed in the regionals, yet her confidence on the outside should be enough.
Morales ITD ...Morales’ first-round KO over Trevin Giles provided evidence that his freakish strength can translate from the regionals. Fugitt is the more naturally confident striker and may try to deny Morales the time and space to operate on the outside. However, Fugitt's squared-on striking will allow ample opportunity for Morales takedowns, the finish is inevitable by either a big bomb from Fugitt standing or a G-n-P finish if Morales gets the takedown, The under may be the best play.
Klose Decision ...Klose is tough and can neutralize opponents, yet superior athletes will usually out-pace him. The clearest path to victory involves Klose falling back on old habits and shutting out Garcia with a three-round clinch fest against the cage. Garcia brings entertainment into the octagon, but likely struggles to mount serious offense today.
Don’Tale Mayes(9-4) vs Hamdy Abdelwahab(3-0)
Mayes KO ...Egyptian Abdelwahab makes UFC debut, he has made his name with victories in Jorge Masvidal’s iKON FC promotion. A former Olympic wrestler, there is certainly a base that can be crafted into a top fighter – given the lack of talent at 265lbs. Mayes has proven his durability during his time at the UFC, however, and his huge 6’6″ frame/power will prove a huge hurdle for Adelwahab to overcome.
Drew Dober(24-11) vs Rafael Alves(20-10)
Dober ...Alves is a strong power kicker who happily meets opponents in their preferred game. That lack of control over a fight will finish lower-tier fighters, it will be punished nearer the top of the division. Dober’s pressure boxing is tailor-made to drain Alves and nullify his explosive threat, yet Dober does have a history of falling to submissions.
Alex Morono(21-7) vs Matt Semelsberger(10-3)
Morono ...Morono has accumulated a strong record in the dark, but will always be athletically capped. Semelsberger’s lanky frame has an awkward presence that has shocked bottom-of-the-barrel opponents. Against the Morono jab, Matt'll find his entries regularly snuffed. Of note: Morono is very hittable and Semelsberger is enough of a puncher to end this early, but that would surprise me.
Magomed Ankalaev(17-1) vs Anthony Smith(36-16) ~ Light Heavyweight (205)
Ankalaev Decision...Even considering concerns with Ankalaev’s striking, he has continued adding minimal layers with each fight. The jab remains key behind all of the Russian’s front-foot offense, yet there are educated layers that are intentionally built. Ask Jimmy Crute, Ryan Spann, and Volkan Oezdemir whether Smith hits ridiculously hard and can hold his own on the mat. Still, there comes a point in an Anthony Smith fight where he adopts a strategy of survival – Ankalaev can draw that out of Lionheart. I really want to back Smith here, and at these odds fuck it...I will!
Alexandre Pantoja(24-5) vs Alex Perez(24-6) ~ Flyweight (125)
Pantoja ...If Pantoja can get this to the mat, he can neutralize Perez into a static affair. On the feet, Pantoja is a reactive counter-puncher who could punish Perez’s preference for chopping leg kicks. Sure, Pantoja sits on his jab, but with insane durability, he produces punches in bunches and eventually bullies opponents...at least in the judges' eyes.
Derrick Lewis(26-9) vs Sergei Pavlovich(15-1) ~ Heavyweight (265)
Lewis KO ...Hot off the presses – Lewis still carries comically nuclear power. Pavlovich hits hard but his strikes are mostly telegraphed. Lewis isn’t a defensive savant, but Tuivasa aside, the Black Beast isn’t a man to handshake into a war of attrition in the pocket. The Russian can certainly take Lewis down, but to keep his opponent on the ground is another matter. Eventually, Lewis probably finds the killswitch.
Brandon Moreno(19-6-2) vs Kai Kara-France(24-9) ~ Flyweight (125)
UFC Interim Flyweight Championship
Moreno ...After a grueling trilogy with Deiveson Figueiredo, Moreno’s hype has bounced between extremities. Can one of the P4P best chins in the business endure Kara-France’s newfound aggression and heavy hands? In their first bout, neither man attempted a takedown. Kara-France showcased far more elusive TDD against Askar Askarov than in any of the other 31 fights in his extensive career. Whether the newfound explosiveness will deter Moreno from dipping into his wrestling chops, however, is yet to be seen. Backing an equal affair on the feet, with razor close rounds falling in favor of Moreno. The difference here should be razor-thin and the best bet is most likely the over.
Julianna Peña(11-4) vs Amanda Nunes(21-5) ~ Women’s Bantamweight (135)
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship
Nunes KO Round 1 ...The dipping jab. A basic step forward, moving off the center-line, was enough to topple the most feared Women’s fighter of all time. Nunes occasionally timed an intercepting uppercut as a means to counter Peña, but the damage had already been done early by the Venezuelan Vixen. Can Nunes move her head out of the way of Peña’s jab? Will she enter at angles or use feints to draw out Peña’s straight shots? God forbid, Nunes dips into her underrated top game and hammers Peña from the top. If Nunes sits on the outside, she has to be favored due to her clubbing power. Sure, Peña hammered Nunes on the outside last time, but I would expect the women's GOAT can adopt a couple of technical adjustments. Historically fallen champs getting quick rematch are only 2-17 over almost 10 years although Figgy got it done the last time this happened. However, I cannot back the brash, good-looking journeyman of a fighter vs the best ever. believe it or not, this is going a long way in Nunes legacy and the best exclamation she can put on it is the first-round finish!
