UFC 161: EVANS VS. HENDERSON June 15th

Son_of_Balrog

Son_of_Balrog

Pretty much a regular
5 Dimes GOGOGOGOGOGO
[TABLE="class: LineTable, width: 729"]
<tbody>[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 161 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - MTS Centre - Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada - PPV - Saturday, June 15, 2013 10:00 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1401 Pat Barry[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-120[/TD]
[TD]Over 1½ -115[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1402 Shawn Jordan[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+100[/TD]
[TD]Under 1½ -125[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1201 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+140[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -210[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1202 Mauricio Rua[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-160[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +160[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1301 Stipe Miocic[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+180[/TD]
[TD]Over 1½ -135[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1302 Roy Nelson[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-260[/TD]
[TD]Under 1½ -105[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1501 Jake Shields[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+160[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -180[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1502 Tyron Woodley[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-185[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +140[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1001 Dan Henderson[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+100[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -195[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1002 Rashad Evans[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-120[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +155[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Lets start this one a little early because I see this as one of the best cards in terms of value I've seen in quite awhile. I'll post the UFC on FUEL June 8th card once 5 dimes puts the entire card up.
 
There might not be a fight on that card that lasts longer than 90 seconds

Exaggeration but a card with Pat Barry and Roy Nelson is an absolute must watch
 
Not to be a jackass douching up the thread but I am already down on:

Hendo / Evans o2.5 @ -150 to win 2u

Shields / Woodley o2.5 @ -130 to win 2u

I still think there is value in both of these overs. Remember the Hendo / Evans fight will only be a three round main event so two less rounds of worrying about the H-bomb, which to me, means Evans will look for early take downs to solidify close rounds. I think Evans knows this is an absolute must win to stay relevant and shows up mentally. He knows where Hendo is dangerous and should be able to use his footwork and quickness advantage to do just enough to grind out a win similar to the phil davis fight.

The Shields v Woodley fight is very simple, these are two of the best human blankets in the world, absolute masters of lay n pray fighting. Yet, somehow since Woodley got that quick KO against Hieron he's some kind of striker? Forget it. Jake shields has been stopped ONE time at the highest levels of MMA, and that was to a top 5 welterweight (Ellenberger) who he fought the week his dad died. Woodley isn't even in the same universe on the feet as Ellenberger and honestly I don't even think he can out grapple Shields who, even though he is a jackass, is one of the best grapplers on the planet. Both guys have very solid chins as well, remember Shields survived the Hendo H-bomb, and Woodley fought 3.5 hellish rounds with Marquardt (who landed 75% power shots on him.) before being KO'd. I wish there was a prop bet for minutes spent leaning on the cage because any number set under 5 would be awesome value on the over. And just FYI Shields last stoppage was against Lawler 4 years ago.
 
Last edited:
Schrute said:
A card with Pat Barry and Roy Nelson is an absolute must watch
Click to expand...

100% agree both of those fights are fantastic and should be bombs away. Shogun v Lil nog should also be a great scrap. Good thing though, because this card has a few absolute snooze fest fights which is EXACTLY why there's plenty of value to be had. Funny how this little nog v shogun fight has the highest odds of going to decision. I think there's a pretty good shot shogun will catch and hurt nog and if he does the fight will get wild very fast. I'll for sure be on u2.5 rds at +200 if it gets there.
 
Haven't bet a side yet on this card but literally like a position in every fight. Looking at Barry, Shogun, Nelson, Shields, and Evans.

Couple of thoughts: I'm hesitant on a non roided shields at this price and will wait. Will almost surely be on Evans, Shogun and Barry, just waiting on possible line movement and line shopping. Out of the three I like Shogun the best as I think he is a terrible match up for lil nog.
 
Well fuck lil nog out for ufc 161. Really loved shogun at -160 in this fight. Wonder if they'll throw Glover in, would be a fantastic fight.
 
Props up on 5dimes. LOL @ the auto line adjustment software. Shields by sub was bet down to +600, but Shields ITD is +780, fantastic value for anyone backing shields.
 
I think Evans has some value, but I'm scared off by his last fight where he seemed uninterested in fighting.

I like Delorme, but I'm not sure what Line will be.
 
Couple of thoughts: No doubt I'd be considered insane but I really like Nelson / Mocic o1.5 @ -110 prop. I think Mocic will be very competitive in this fight and likely frustrates and gets Nelson to the ground in the first. Will wait as I think day of money will chase u1.5.

Really like Barry at evens in this fight right now but I bet his odds get better when they see Jordan staring him down at the weigh in. Barry is better than his record indicates and has fought vastly superior competition than Jordan.
 
Twink, I'm of the opinion that this card has tons of value betting wise but pretty awful entertainment value, hence my two big best being o2.5 (decision) round totals.
 
How or why do you think Stipe gets Nelson to the ground? For 1, I dont think he can. For 2, Nelson is sick on the ground.

Value wise, I like Shields. Will add probably.
 
Not advocating a Miocic play, as I think his fight IQ isn't the best and he's definitely there to be hit at times, but Roy's last four KO wins came against guys who had zero interest in wrestling and wrapping him up in a clinch game. Roy's clinch game, to me, is pretty weak and he was dominated by Mir and Werdum in that aspect of their fight. I know Miocic has had limited competition but I think we can agree that his wrestling is at least on par with Frank Mir and if he gets Roy to a clinch on the cage he will get him to the ground. I agree with you that Roy's ground game is excellent, but it is excellent in the way that he is able to avoid damage and to attempt to get the fight back to standing, not any kind of offensive game actively looking to sub guys.

Handicapping this fight the one way, to me, it ends quickly is Roy landing a big right hand and that is definitely an outcome to forecast but I think more often than not Miocic comes in and tries to ugly this thing up into a clinch fest and will try very hard to get Roy to the ground where he can tire him and out point him. I see no way Miocic is coming in and finishing Roy early as he is one of the toughest dudes on the planet and has an excellent defensive ground game. So the question is will Nelson land a bomb that is able to finish Miocic within the first 7.5 minutes? I say more likely, no, but I am concerned about Miocic brain farting and thinking it's a good idea to stand in the pocket and trade with Nelson.

Like I said, I'll be waiting to play this round total until tomorrow as I think there's a good possibility late money comes in on the under and we could see + odds on the over.
 
Roy has one punch KO power and excellent BJJ. All I'm saying is I don't see Moicic taking him down because not only is Nelson tough to take down, but he's far superior on the ground than Moicic. And Nelson's offensive BJJ is actually really good, it's just that he prefers to stand an trade or if he gets to the ground, he'd rather control and try to get the arm tied up and ground and pound. Nelson's chin is amazing and he stood the whole time vs. JDS. Moicic is a tough dude as well and I think he wins the fight if he fights smart and doesn't stand in the pocket. But, I don't think he tries to take Nelson down, I think he tries to get in and out and outpoint Nelson, who has no defense, he just relies on his chin. I actually think the over is probably a good bet, but not because of any wrestling being done. I would make a decent size bet on Moicic if I didn't have concerns that he'll tire (though Nelson probably could as well) Stipe by decision make get a small play.

More and more I'm leaning to Evans despite his stinker last fight. (wake up call)? He's much younger, he's much faster. Look at Evans last 10 fights, it's incredible that people write him off. (Bisping, Liddell, Griffin, Machida, Silva, Rampage, Tito, Davis, Jones, Nog) I haven't been impressed with Hendo since he's been in the UFC. Lackluster wins vs. average fighters like Palharis. 1 punch KO of Bisping. He got utterly dominated against a much smaller Jake Shields. He looked awful vs. Shogun and Machida. I completely throw the Fedor fight out, Fedor was done at that point. I give Hendo one shot and that is the right hand. Evans knows this. He'll be faster, he'll jab hendo to death, and I think he'll outwrestle him. I see a 3 round decision by Evans

Jordan over Barry. Another fight were I'm picking against the 1 kick/punch KO. Jordan is in the Jackson camp so I look for him to fight a smart fight. Barry isn't easy to get to the ground, but if he does, he's done. I love Pat, but his game has not evolved. You gotta have some new stuff to beat decent guys from good camps.

Already mentioned Shields. JUst think he's overlooked. And Woodley is overvalued.

Another fight with 1 punch KO power vs. a more rounded fighter is Jimmo vs. Pokrajic. I may lay off this fight, but Jimmo likely only has a short window to win so I'm shocked he's a favorite. He has that crushing power, but in the last fight he gassed and was done (so did Te Huna). I just see Igor surviving the first and then grinding out a dec, but haven't decided whether to play it or not and I'm still liable to change my mind.

Also mentioned playing Delorme. A Stout/Delorme parlay pays even money.
 
Dollaz said:
Roy has one punch KO power and excellent BJJ. All I'm saying is I don't see Moicic taking him down because not only is Nelson tough to take down, but he's far superior on the ground than Moicic. And Nelson's offensive BJJ is actually really good, it's just that he prefers to stand an trade or if he gets to the ground, he'd rather control and try to get the arm tied up and ground and pound. Nelson's chin is amazing and he stood the whole time vs. JDS. Moicic is a tough dude as well and I think he wins the fight if he fights smart and doesn't stand in the pocket. But, I don't think he tries to take Nelson down, I think he tries to get in and out and outpoint Nelson, who has no defense, he just relies on his chin. I actually think the over is probably a good bet, but not because of any wrestling being done. I would make a decent size bet on Moicic if I didn't have concerns that he'll tire (though Nelson probably could as well) Stipe by decision make get a small play.
Click to expand...

Totally agree with you on Nelson's offensive BJJ ability he just never really looks to attack and focuses more on sweeping to scramble up or at times even allowing fighters to advance to better positions in hopes that he can cause a scramble to stand. I mean dude gave up his back to Werdum a minute into the fight and was able to get out, that is ELITE BJJ defense. I also agree that Miocic likely starts this fight looking to get in and out and work his striking, but he often is explosive when doing this he tends to back his opponent up. Roy is not the type of guy that looks to control the center of the octagon and I think he'll give up ground to Miocic's style of striking hoping to catch him coming in. Miocic has a tendency to keep his chin up coming in and that is my biggest concern for how he gets clipped. I'm not saying Miocic will spam take downs on Roy all night but I do believe if he is able to back Roy up to the cage he will look to clinch and get Roy to the ground. Miocic's wrestling is IMO underrated and he can be explosive with his take downs when he's in close on a guy. I think we see the fight in a pretty similar fashion just disagreeing on Mocic's ability to get Roy to the ground. I think Mocic by decision @ +345 is definitely worth a look as well as FOTN +350.
 
Evans by decision +140 is definitely shaping up to be a play for me too. I see this fight going very similar to the Machida fight in which Hendo plods around for 3 rounds hoping to land the H-bomb while Evans stays busy enough to out point him. I think stylistically Evans is a more appealing fighter in the current UFC 10 point must system than Machida and if he shows up motivated in this fight and stays active he should win comfortably on the cards.
 
Haven't really seen a lot of Delorme other than his KO loss which was overturned. I missed the TUF season he was on, any thoughts on how the fight will go Dollaz?
 
MOre of a bet against Figuero, who I don't think is any good. But, Delorme is a BJJ guy. TOugh guy. I think Figuero has the advantage on the feet, but I don't think he has the knockout power to drop Delorme. And if it goes to the ground, I think Delorme easily takes it.
 
I think Steve/Tyson u2.5 EV tonight is definitely worth a look. looking into card tomorrow and agree on Shields over. He just lays there. One of his last fights he got a gift decision based on his name alone and he looked gassed the whole fight due to a dramatic weight cut (pretty sure that was the Akiyama fight). I'll have to see how he looks prior to betting him but my gut tells me that father time is finally catching up to him.
 
P-Unit said:
I think Steve/Tyson u2.5 EV tonight is definitely worth a look. looking into card tomorrow and agree on Shields over. He just lays there. One of his last fights he got a gift decision based on his name alone and he looked gassed the whole fight due to a dramatic weight cut (pretty sure that was the Akiyama fight). I'll have to see how he looks prior to betting him but my gut tells me that father time is finally catching up to him.
Click to expand...

well, that took all of 1:30. lmao. nice to get those quick ones. Let's get some cash tomorrow fellas.
 
Mazaghatti was just standing there as Fitch was sound asleep. He dropped him like a sack of potatoes. Similar to Jones dropping Machida. Walking off like a g.
 
submissions_Jones_Chokes_Out_Machida.gif
 
lmfao @ these crooked Canadian judges. who the fuck scored that Woodley 30-27. my fucking god......
 
Maybe Woodley won the 3rd round. maybe. I thought Shields played him like a fiddle for most of the fight and controlled about 95% of the action.
 
Whats the line on this? Pat Barry should win by kick to the head. Seems more talented and polished in striking.
 
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