UFC 160: VELASQUEZ VS. SILVA II May 25th

Son_of_Balrog

Son_of_Balrog

Pretty much a regular
5dimes GOGOGOGOGO

[TABLE="class: LineTable, width: 1127"]
<tbody>[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 160 - Featherweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - Facebook - Saturday, May 25, 2013 6:30 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]2101 Jeremy Stephens[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-240[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ +120[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]2102 Estevan Payan[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+200[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ -150[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 160 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - Facebook - Saturday, May 25, 2013 7:00 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]2001 George Roop[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+235[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ +125[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]2002 Brian Bowles[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-275[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ -155[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 160 - Welterweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - Facebook - Saturday, May 25, 2013 7:30 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1901 Stephen Thompson[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-155[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ +105[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1902 Nah-Shon Burrell[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+135[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ -135[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 160 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - FX - Saturday, May 25, 2013 8:00 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1801 Abel Trujillo[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+225[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ +110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1802 Khabib Nurmagomedov[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-265[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ -140[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 160 - Welterweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - FX - Saturday, May 25, 2013 8:30 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1701 Colton Smith[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-220[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -240[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1702 Robert Whittaker[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+180[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +180[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 160 - Featherweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - FX - Saturday, May 25, 2013 9:00 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1601 Dennis Bermudez[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-265[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -170[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1602 Max Holloway[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+225[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +140[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 160 - Welterweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - FX - Saturday, May 25, 2013 9:30 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1501 Rick Story[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-150[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -125[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1502 Mike Pyle[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+130[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ -105[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 160 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV - Saturday, May 25, 2013 10:00 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1401 KJ Noons[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+250[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -155[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1402 Donald Cerrone[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-300[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +125[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 160 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV - Saturday, May 25, 2013 10:30 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1301 T.J. Grant[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+175[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -245[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1302 Gray Maynard[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-210[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +185[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 160 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV - Saturday, May 25, 2013 11:00 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1201 James Te Huna[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+250[/TD]
[TD]Over 1½ -180[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1202 Glover Teixeira[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-300[/TD]
[TD]Under 1½ +150[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 160 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV - Saturday, May 25, 2013 11:30 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1101 Mark Hunt[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+335[/TD]
[TD]Over 1½ -165[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1102 Junior Dos Santos[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-420[/TD]
[TD]Under 1½ +135[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]UFC 160 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV - Saturday, May 25, 2013 11:59 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1001 Antonio Silva[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+550[/TD]
[TD]Over 1½ -145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1002 Cain Velasquez[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-800[/TD]
[TD]Under 1½ +115[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Played JDS v Hunt o1.5 @ -165 to win 1u. This bet comes down to relying on two of the best chins in the sport being able to hold up. I think JDS is way too quick for hunt on the feet and will likely be content to just box away similar to the Nelson fight. I played the over instead of JDS by decision because IMO there is a very real chance of JDS grinding Hunt down and submitting him late in the fight once hunt gasses and opens himself to an easy take down. I know we've hardly seen any of JDS top game in the UFC but he is a legitimate BJJ black belt and should have no problems submitting Hunt later in the fight if he is in position to do so.

5dimes is offering JDS by sub @ +500 right now and I'll likely take a piece of that but am waiting to see what kind of shit line BoL will put up once their props come out.

Should be a pretty entertaining card Sat night. Lots of fights that set up to be slugfests.
 
Also eyeing TJ grant but will wait as I feel that money may come in on Maynard. TJ has looked awesome since his move to lightweight and he will not be a guy Maynard can manhandle. Maynard is definitely as elite as they come at 155 and I know he is probably hungrier than ever to get a title shot against a guy not named Edgar but you can't help but feel Maynard is a shopworn fighter who's not getting any younger. This is a major crossroads fight and my gut is telling me this is a changing of the guard type fight. I'll wait until 5dimes puts up their reduced prices and will play if we get TJ around +200
 
Thoughts on a Khabib/Bowles parlay

Khabib has been my favorite fighter since seeing him live in Nashville
 
the faves I like on this card are cerrone and Bermudez. I think you'd be safe parlaying with either. Curious to see what some of the other guys think. the dogs im looking at right now are burrell, pyle and grant.
 
GameOnDudek said:
I'd be very cautious with playing Bowles. Roop is no pushover and Bowles hasn't fought in about 18 months.
Click to expand...

Strongly agree with being VERY cautious playing Bowles. Dude is coming off serious back problems (bulging and degenerative discs) and has admitted during his 18 month layoff there were plenty of times he was very apathetic to even get in the gym and train. That being said a motivated 80% Bowles shouldn't have much trouble with Roop I'd just be leery of laying the price on him right now.
 
Schrute said:
Ok. Who do u rec parlaying Khabib with?
Click to expand...

Also like Khabib as I think he's a pretty solid mid level UFC guy fighting a dude who IMO shouldn't even be in the UFC. I think Cerrone or Glover would be fine parlaying with Khabib although it sucks that BoL finally adjusted their Cerrone price from -260 to match the rest of the market. I'd think Cerrone is probably the safer of the two, Noons is definitely on the down swing of his career and struggles when facing guys with a diverse striking game (see Josh Thompson fight.)
 
Also keeping a eye on Glover by sub prop. 5dimes opened at +415 which was an awesome price I missed and has been bet down to +280. If it comes back above +300 or BoL puts up a shit line I'll be betting to win 1 unit.
 
Would love to see hunt pull the upset. Not sure how bigfoot wins. Cain is basically one punch away from dominating every second of every fight hrs ever been in.
 
Here's the mauling Cain put on big foot last year if anybody wants to watch. Fight starts around 8:20.

[video=youtube;zjDkOtyCUXI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjDkOtyCUXI[/video]
 
You might watch that fight and say, "how the fuck can you put money on big foot?" Sometimes it's the first person to catch the other guy and then pounce on him. Cain stunned him 7 seconds into the fight putting him on his back and big foot never recovered. Cain is better but at +550 there's some value. Overeem was a decent size fave also vs Silva and he got taken care of.
 
Sure anything can happen in a fight, but Cain is so much quicker, I cant imagine he tries to stand and throw punches. I bet he tries to take him down quickly again. For a black belt, Bigfoot looked helpless on the ground.
 
IMO Cain is the absolute worst match up possible for Bigfoot. Great footwork, good head movement, relentless pressure, underrated hand speed, and elite conditioning that wont be affected if Bigfoot is somehow able to put his weight on Cain early. I just don't see Bigfoot's style of striking being able to land a fight changing shot on Cain before he is absolutely punished and ground down. Bigfoot has pretty heavy hands but I don't think he has that devastating one punch power of say a JDS or Roy Nelson and lets be honest, excluding that one right hand to the temple by JDS, Cain has pretty much dominated every minute he's been in the octagon.

For anyone backing Cain I wouldn't even consider betting the -800, I'd just play the -400 ITD prop on 5dimes or the -350 KO/TKO/DQ. There is almost zero chance Bigfoot will hang 5 rounds without completely gassing out and getting stopped, his way to win is to somehow catch Cain and hurt him enough to pound him out early. Once Cain hits a take down this fight is all but over as Bigfoot will have nothing to offer off his back.

5dimes also offering Cain +200 to win in rd 1 and +300 to win in rd 2. Will likely be on both of these just waiting on BoL to put up their props.
 
Will dig thru more, but I don't think I like any dogs in first glance. Silva does have some value.

Colton Smith may be my favorite play.
 
Stephens wins by TKO/KO +170 -- 1-1.7
Smith -215 -- 3.225-1.5
Smith wins by 3 round decision -130 -- 1.3-1
Smith/Whittaker goes 3 round distance -185 -- 1.85-1
Nurmagomedov -270 -- 2.7-1
Grant +175 -- 1-1.75
Grant wins by 3 round decision +590 -- .5-2.95
Grant/Maynard goes 3 round distance -185 -- 1.85-1
Grant/Maynard to win Fight of the Night +300 -- .5-1.5
Teixeira wins by submission +250 -- 1-2.5
Hunt/Dos Santos starts round 3 -105 -- 1.05-1
Silva/Velasquez won't start round 3 -180 -- 1.8-1

GL fellas.
 
Grind_4_Mine said:

Grant wins by 3 round decision +590 -- .5-2.95
Grant/Maynard goes 3 round distance -185 -- 1.85-1
Grant/Maynard to win Fight of the Night +300 -- .5-1.5
Teixeira wins by submission +250 -- 1-2.5
Hunt/Dos Santos starts round 3 -105 -- 1.05-1
Silva/Velasquez won't start round 3 -180 -- 1.8-1

GL fellas.
Click to expand...

Love all of these prop bets. Pissed at myself for waiting on that Glover +280 sub. Will definitely play grant by decision prop just hoping BoL puts up some trash before i play it. Will likely be on both the JDS and Cain rd props you have as well.

BOL ALL.
 
BOL props up. Not a ton of stuff is off.
I took:
JDS by decision +650 for 4u (their one big mistake)
JDS wins in rd 3 +850 for .5u
JDS by sub +400 for .5u
Teixeira by sub +280 for .5u

Likely will play Cain by TKO/KO/DQ for -340 but will wait.
 
Khabib missed weight badly 158.5 and was not able to make weight after 2 hour extension, forfeited 20% of his purse. Word on the Interwebs was he quit trying to lose weight rather than drain himself so hopefully that's a good sign.
 
Son_of_Balrog said:
Khabib missed weight badly 158.5 and was not able to make weight after 2 hour extension, forfeited 20% of his purse. Word on the Interwebs was he quit trying to lose weight rather than drain himself so hopefully that's a good sign.
Click to expand...
Interesting how 10% goes to his opponent. I like this rule.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ufc-160-velasquez-vs-bigfoot-233629759--mma.html
UPDATE: Khabib Nurmagomedov was 2.5 pounds over his allotted limit of 156 pounds for a lightweight tilt with Abel Trujillo. Nurmagomedov shoved Trujillo when they squared off, leaving White looking upset… not a good idea when missing the mark.

UFC officials later confirmed that Nurmagomedov declined to try and make weight. The fight will still take place, but Nurmagomedov was fined 20-percent of his fight purse, 10-percent of which goes to his opponent and the other 10-percent to the Nevada Athletic Commission.
Click to expand...
 
Card (so far) for tonight:
Parlay: Vitor +100 / Cerrone -260 to win 1.6u

JDS / HUNT o1.5 -165 to win 1u and -130 to win 1u
JDS by decision +650 - 4u
JDS wins in rd 3 +850 - .5u
JDS by sub +400 - .5u
Glover by sub +280 - .5u
TJ Grant by decision +350 - .5u
TJ Grant KO/TKO/DQ +950 - .5u
 
Still Eyeing Cain / Bigfoot u1.5 bet / Cain by KO/TKO/DQ bet and maybe more. Stuff moving around pretty agressive right now. Possbily Maynard by decision if it continues to improve.

Holloway also up to +275 on 5dimes. Hard not to take a piece of that I'll wait right before fight.
 
Khabib was a total beast. Threw that dude around like a total rag doll. Obv it was a good 158.5 for him didn't want to kill himself making weight. Now he faces the wraith of Dana White for blowing off a weight cut.
 
FWIW I think Colton has some decent ability he's just a small welterweight. Wouldn't be shocked if he moves to lightweight after this fight.
 
I felt screwed betting against Bermudez last fight. Don't let this be another split dec win
 
Dollaz said:
I felt screwed betting against Bermudez last fight. Don't let this be another split dec win
Click to expand...

:thinking:

Guess one take down with 30 secs to go is worth more than a guy soundly winning the previous four minutes. Holloway looked great in that fight and Bermudez was game as hell after getting badly hurt in the first. Will be tough to beat that for FOTN and if something does it will be FOTY caliber.
 
Twice in a row Bermudez has lost first 2 rounds and gotten a split decision win. What the fuck is going on with that guy?
 
Grant by dec
tex inside distance
can silva to finish 2 rounds
tex fight doesn't go distance/Cerrone
 
With you on all of those except Cain/Bigfoot. I think there's a TON of value on props this go around as opposed to sides. BOL to us.
 
Why do u think hunt/Jds goes distance? I'm considering huge play on Jds inside. Hunt has never lost a decision.
 
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