***Turkey Week Lex***

2-0 Turkey day! Got one in early for sunday

Cardinals-1.5-110

3 units

Let the Patriots fade continue....change the jersey to any other team and this is a -3.5 line. I don't like losing Fitzgerald (more for run blocking) but I'll take the much better team off a loss in a tight division race. Cards need to keep pace and the Pats are donezo
 
Bills tt o28-120

5 units

Tons of reverse line movement here as the line has dropped to 52. Line is close and Ekeler returning is enough for me to lay off the chalk here. I tend to think the Bills defense shows up big after a tough loss, but could easily see a 3 pt win.

I will however play on the Bills offense. Allen should be able to pick apart this defense even without Brown. Gabe Davis/McKenzie have stepped up when Brown was out. Chargers have allowed 28+in 7 straight, no real reason to see it stop here unless the Bills just put up a dud.
 
Jaguars+7/ +250

3 units/ 1 unit ml

Just a straight up Browns fade. Defense hasn't shown they can play on the road, Baker is trash. Chubb might go off but Robinson is no slouch, if he gets going the Jags should be able to move the ball. Lean over as well (see Browns road games) and might look for value 2ndh.
 
Forgot to add weather wise it will be 50 and sunny in buffalo. I really hope the Bills D can step up but Ekeler back really is going to test that run d. I don't think the Bills ats is a good wager this week, but at the same time would not bet against them. If that makes any sense. I would think if the Bills lose there will be points scored, and everything points to the over. I know there are trends about consecutive over streaks favoring the under here, and this total line looks trappy af with reverse line movement etc. I have to point out that I lost my last large Bills total wager but have for the most part had a good read on them this season. Think a Diggs td, Gabe Davis td and Allen over yards are solid props. Have to see odds but Ekeler yds/td might be worth a shot. Even if he's eased into the game the Bills have made a habit of letting opposing rbs rip them 2ndh.

Really trying to be more selective this week but have a ton of leans.
 
Lexington 125 said:
2-0 Turkey day! Got one in early for sunday

Cardinals-1.5-110

3 units

Let the Patriots fade continue....change the jersey to any other team and this is a -3.5 line. I don't like losing Fitzgerald (more for run blocking) but I'll take the much better team off a loss in a tight division race. Cards need to keep pace and the Pats are donezo
Click to expand...
Have you seen the Out injury report for Cards? They are many. GL
 
I’m on the bills lex, I think it’s going to be a long day for Herbert. They won’t keep up w Josh Allen.
You worry about Kylers shoulder at all?
Gl today
 
Lex, thoughts on Buffalo 2nd half tt? I'm thinking of hedging some back? Allen with a twisted ankle and all
 
Bosa eating the oline up. Hoping I can get 2 2ndh tds for the tt over but I expect the Chargersto run well 2ndh
 
Jared Allen would drive me to drink if I was a Buffalo fan. He's got more balls than Goff but is equally careless with the ball.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Can't believe 1sth over didn't cash. Wow


Ravens tt o7 2ndh

ravens+235 2ndh

+6

1.5 units each
Click to expand...
Absolute negligence on the part of the officials to allow the Steelers to lay on top of players deliberately as the clock was running. These mother fucking officials can't see the situation? You mean they're oblivious to what is being done deliberately to Baltimore with no timeouts?
Either they are just this bad or they're part of point shaving. Its veen proven many times so it makes you wonder.
 
wiseplayer said:
Absolute negligence on the part of the officials to allow the Steelers to lay on top of players deliberately as the clock was running. These mother fucking officials can't see the situation? You mean they're oblivious to what is being done deliberately to Baltimore with no timeouts?
Either they are just this bad or they're part of point shaving. Its veen proven many times so it makes you wonder.
Click to expand...
That ending to the half changed everything. Defense really stepped up for the Ravens but they played too safe offensively. Not saying the Ravens win if they scored pre half but I win money instead of the chop.
 
Lexington 125 said:
That ending to the half changed everything. Defense really stepped up for the Ravens but they played too safe offensively. Not saying the Ravens win if they scored pre half but I win money instead of the chop.
Click to expand...
Steelers had 2 1st and goal in the 1st half and shit the bed. Very interesting outcome today
 
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