Performify's Picks for The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale
Since the full card for The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale wasn't finalized until just a few days ago, it just wasn't possible to deliver the usual verbose writeup of every nuance of each fighter and matchup. Instead, here's a quick look at each fight and where I've got my money.
The curse that seemed to hang over the UFC 85 fight card flowed right over into my predictions for the event.
I think I was on the right side of my largest bet (Marquardt over Leites), but anomalous results (in this case, two point deductions, one of them questionable) are something you have to learn to live with when betting on sports (and especially so with MMA); over time our edge should be sufficient to overcome these sort of outcomes and present a long-term profit, but it's still highly frustrating when it happens.
I think I was also clearly on the right side of Jess Liaudin vs. Paul Taylor; losing a close split decision with a +200 underdog bet demonstrates that was a good bet despite the outcome. As they say, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and MMA wagering definitely isn't either.
So with the seemingly cursed UFC 85 event in the books, that brings my recent running total for my public predictions to 35-30 for +12.445 units. Time to get back on the horse with The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale.
As usual, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com's recommended sportsbook,
Bodog. If you're interested in learning more about
betting on MMA, check out the series of articles in our
MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series.
MAIN CARD (TELEVISED)
Evan Tanner -190 vs. Kendall Grove +160
Tanner hold a 32-7 professional record, 11-5 in the UFC. Grove is 8-5 in MMA, 3-2 in the UFC. Grove has lost his past two after winning five in a row. He hasn't fought since January, when he was upset by Jorge Rivera at UFC 80. Tanner has lost three of his past four, going back to the middle of 2005. Grove is in a must-win situation here; lose, and he is likely to be on his way out of the UFC with three consecutive losses. Tanner, on the other hand, doesn't have a lot of pressure. At 37 years old, with long periods of layoff between fights, Tanner is nothing close to the championship form that he once possessed, and unlike his opponent, he's not really fighting for his future here. At the current line, Tanner is being assigned a winning percentage of slightly better than 65%. I think that's way off; I see Grove pulling out the "upset" here, using his muay thai skills to win in the clinch with an early TKO.
C.B. Dollaway -160 vs. Amir Sadollah +130
The current betting line assigns resident MMAjunkie.com blogger Dollaway a slightly better than 61% chance of winning. While Sadollah has proven his toughness and skill with his incredible run on the show, I think Dollaway is being slightly undervalued here. Dollaway didn't look great in either of his past two televised fights, appearing to gas in the second round of both. Before you place too much weight on that, remember that the fights were under completely different circumstances; the rematch with Tim Credeur shown on this week's episode was unexpected for both fighters, with Dollaway fighting on about two weeks' notice. The previous fight against Sadollah occurred at the end of the show's taping, the third fight for both contestants in six weeks.
It's not to say this fight is a lock for Dollaway -- not by a long shot. Sadollah is tough and very well rounded, threatening with both strikes and submissions. But Sadollah really only threatened Dollaway once Dollaway had gassed in the third round of their fight, and he didn't really have much of an answer for his opponent until he had gassed. I expect that Dollaway's conditioning will be significantly improved compared to what we saw with his last two fights shown on "The Ultimate Fighter," and I think that's going to be enough to win him the fight. I don't expect his striking to be significantly improved, but with improved cardio and submission defense, I expect to see Dollaway take this fight by unanimous decision more often then he gets caught, enough to warrant a play on him.
Diego Sanchez -500 vs. Luigi Fioravanti +350
Sanchez (18-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC) and Fioravanti (12-3 MMA, 3-3 UFC) both come in having won their latest fight in the UFC after losing two straight prior. Sanchez is coming off a win over David Bielkheden after losing to Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck; Fioravanti is coming off a win over Luke Cummo after losing to Forrest Petz and Fitch. Fioravanti also sneaked in a win over Frank Camacho outside the UFC after losing to Petz.
Sanchez is being given an 83% probability to win this fight, and I think that's probably pretty appropriate. Sanchez's only losses have been to top-tier competition, whereas we've seen Fioravanti lose to Chris Leben in addition to Petz, neither of whom would be considered top tier in the division. I expect Sanchez by rear naked choke in the second round.
Spencer Fisher -220 vs. Jeremy Stephens +180
I expect this clash to walk away with Fight of the Night honors. Fisher (20-4 MMA, 5-3 UFC) has lost two of his past three, sandwiching a win over Sam Stout at UFC Fight Night 10 between losses to Frank Edgar at UFC 78 and Hermes Franca at UFC Fight Night 8. Stephens is 13-2 in professional MMA and 2-1 in the UFC. Stephens looked great in his UFC debut, winning the first round against Din Thomas before getting caught in an armbar in the second. He's since rattled off impressive wins over Diego Saraiva and Cole Miller. I love betting Stephens here as a heavy underdog, being given less than a 38% chance to pull the upset. He's 10 years younger than Fisher, and he's still rising, and I think he's much closer to even money to win here. Stephens by TKO in the second.
Matt Riddle -240 vs. Dante Rivera +190
This is being sold as "the grudge match that everyone wants to see," and we can only hope it delivers the same level of aggression that punctuated their verbal sparring on the show. Rivera is a veteran fighter with a 10-2 professional MMA record. Riddle may not have any professional fights, but he does have a highlight reel knockout of Dan Simmler on his resume, and that punching power was enough to get him set as a significant favorite here. Both fighters have good grappling pedigrees: Rivera is a BJJ brown belt under Ricardo Almeida; Riddle is only a purple belt but has several wins in national grappling competitions to round out his resume, including wins at NAGA and Grappler's Quest.
MMAjunkie.com has learned that Riddle had a "retirement plaque" commissioned for Saturday's fight, and he plans to present it to Rivera after defeating him in their televised bout. (The kid's brash and ballsy if nothing else.)
In grudge matches, you usually see the two fighters let emotion overcome tactics and go toe-to-toe to start. If that happens, look for an early end to the fight as Riddle sends Rivera to slumberland with a hook to the jaw.
PRELIMINARY CARD (UN-TELEVISED)
Josh Burkman -200 vs. Dustin Hazelett +160
I like Hazelett (10-4 MMA, 3-2 UFC) to upset Burkman (9-5 MMA, 5-3 UFC) here. Burkman's main offensive weapon is ground and pound, which is dangerous against someone with slick submissions like Hazelett. I think Hazelett is well rounded enough to get this fight to the ground, where he will win by submission enough to make him a good play since he's given only a 38.5% chance to win.
Marvin Eastman +100 vs. Drew McFedries -130
I like McFedries (6-3 MMA, 2-2 UFC) as a small favorite over Eastman (15-7-1 MMA, 1-3 UFC) here, but only a little. This should be a highly volatile fight, and the close line reflects that. I think McFedries has better power and more disciplined striking and can take this fight assuming it plays out as a standup war. It's worth noting that Eastman surprised me with a unanimous decision upset of Terry Martin at UFC 81, so it's very possible that he surprises here as well.
Matt Arroyo -150 vs. Matt Brown +120
This isn't the first time these two have fought: Arroyo (3-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) previously lost to Brown (3-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC) in the Real Fighting Championships organization in November 2006. Brown has lost three of his past four pro fights, all by way of submission, and I expect this fight to go the same way. Arroyo has developed since they last fought, and I expect he slaps on a submission victory here inside the first two rounds.
Jeremy Horn -140 vs. Dean Lister +110
These two have likewise faced off before, with Horn (79-17-5 MMA, 7-5 UFC) defeating Lister (10-5 MMA, 3-1 UFC) by TKO in King of the Cage in 2003. Lister's jiu jistu is world class, but his striking is generally weak, so he's struggled with well-rounded opponents. If Horn were still the fighter he was when they last fought, I would predict another TKO victory for Horn. But the years and years of fighting haven't been kind to Horn. He was submitted by American Top Team fighter Jorge Santiago in late 2007 at Art of War 3, which leads me to believe that Lister's world-class ground game should be able to catch and finish Horn here as well, handing the 32-year-old fighter his third straight submission loss.
Tim Credeur -360 vs. Cale Yarbrough +280
I don't see Credeur having any problem with Yarbrough here. He's being assigned a 78% chance of winning, and I'd say that's pretty accurate. Credeur by submission in the first round.
Rob Kimmons -150 vs. Rob Yudnt +120
In case you don't remember the name, Rob Yundt (6-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is the former high school All American wrestler from Alaska who debuted against Ricardo Almeida at UFC 81, losing by submission in the first round. Kimmons is from Liberty, Mo., just up the road from where I live, and I've had the opportunity to see him in a few regional events. He holds a 20-3 professional MMA record, with 12 wins (60%) by way of submission. Kimmons is a veteran of the now-defunct International Fighting Organization organization, where he headlined two events, losing to Marvin Eastman and defeating Tristan Yunker. Kimmons is well rounded with strong submissions, and I expect he's going to be trouble for Yundt here, handing Yundt his second straight loss by way of submission.
My public plays for my public record:
- Kendall Grove (+160): .5u to win .8u
- C.B. Dollaway (-160): .8u to win .5u
- Jeremy Stephens (+180): .5u to win .9u
- Dustin Hazelett (+160): .5u to win .8u
- Matt Arroyo (-150): .75u to win .5u
- Dean Lister (+110): .4u to win .44u
- Rob Kimmons (-150): .75u to win .5u
