Tuesday Totals Discussion

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
This was the toughest week yet. I'm sure there are some terrible numbers here. Tell me where I screwed up.

Here is what I have for this week:

SMU/Tulane - 58.5
USC/Oregon St. - 53

UConn/Louisville - 53

Navy/Wake - 57
WMU/Temple - 48
Marshall/WVU - 55
Pitt/Cuse - 47
Michigan St./Indiana - 59
Northwestern/Iowa - 48
Virginia/Duke - 42
UNC/Miami FL - 41
Mississippi/Florida - 59
LSU/Miss. St. - 40
Northern Illy/EMU - 56
Buffalo/CMU - 64
Cincy/Akron - 52
Houston/East Carolina - 58
Purdue/ND - 47
Minnesota/Ohio St. - 48
Va. Tech/Nebraska - 48
Stanford/Washington - 53.5
Colorado St./Cal - 63.5
Alabama/Georgia - 56
Tennessee/Auburn - 43
Wisconsin/Michigan - 40
Maryland/Clemson - 52
Fresno St./UCLA - 46.5
Bowling Green/Wyoming - 44.5?
Oregon/Wash St. - 50
TCU/Oklahoma - 44
UAB/South Carolina - 49
Army/Texas A&M - 42
Kent St/Ball St. - 65.5
USF/NC ST. - 47
Colorado/Florida St. - 39.5
UCF/UTEP - 56
Illinois/PSU - 56
NM/NMSU - 60.5
Idaho/SDSU - 54 (where do you put this debacle?)
Nevada/UNLV - 58
SJSU/Hawaii - 55
WKU/Kentucky - 48
Arky St./Memphis - 56.5
Troy/Oklahoma St. - 57.5
Florida Int./Toledo - 54
ULL/Kansas St. - 61
UNT/Rice - 68.5
Arkansas/Texas - 63

The numbers came out at 4:28 EST last week, so be on the lookout around that time. :cheers:
 
Two-lame has a pretty solid D and is pretty anemic on offense.
I would say that number is about a TD or more to high.
I also think LSU - State will be closer to 44-45.
I could be wrong considering State cant score and supposedly has a good D. Then again how many rushing yards can LSU get if Ga Tech put up 400+ on them. LSU has one if not the most devastating OLines in college football. I also expect Miles/Crowton to test our passing game a bit in the 2nd half as a warmup/scrimmage for Florida and Gawga.
I see a 42 - 10 type game. This is just the gut talking. Carry on.
 
PURPLE & GOLD said:
Two-lame has a pretty solid D and is pretty anemic on offense.
I would say that number is about a TD or more to high.
I also think LSU - State will be closer to 44-45.
I could be wrong considering State cant score and supposedly has a good D. Then again how many rushing yards can LSU get if Ga Tech put up 400+ on them. LSU has one if not the most devastating OLines in college football. I also expect Miles/Crowton to test our passing game a bit in the 2nd half as a warmup/scrimmage for Florida and Gawga.
I see a 42 - 10 type game. This is just the gut talking. Carry on.
Click to expand...

Agreed, but SMU made TCU's offense look very good, so I have to assume they can do the same for Tulane. You could be right here though - interested to see what SMU puts up in this game.

You are probably right about LSU as well, but when I have trouble making a total, I look the line and project the score. In this case, at LSU -24, it would project literally to a 32-8 Tigers win with a 40 point total (though obviously I am think more along the lines of 31-7 or 34-7). The reason I didn't make this 44 is that it would project to a 34-10 final. Given how Miss St.'s offense has performed as of late, I don't think that they should have a team total in double digits against the LSU defense.

LSU could easily cover the 40 themselves, but I made this total completely with the aid of the -24 spread and therefore didn't feel I could place it in the mid-40s.
 
Alabama/UGA 56 looks high to me
PSU/Illinois 56 looks a little low
Ball State/Kent State 65.5 looks a little high to me
pretty good numbers posted though, you do all of those yourself?
 
the ones that i would know anything about look pretty good...

i would think temple would come out lower though...44ish is what i was thinking

i would think nmst would come out higher, well at least i think it would be higher than kent/ball from what i know about the two matchups---i think that will be the higher scoring game...so i guess i would expect kent/ball to come out a little lower and nm/nmst higher if that makes sense.

could very well be wrong, but if nmst total does come out at 60ish, i'll most likely be on the over...

won't have any interest in the kent/ball under no matter what it comes out at as i can easily see kent getting to 28, which obviously the books don't see

which ones are you lookin at to pounce on?
 
dylanphan said:
Alabama/UGA 56 looks high to me
PSU/Illinois 56 looks a little low
Ball State/Kent State 65.5 looks a little high to me
pretty good numbers posted though, you do all of those yourself?
Click to expand...

Yep - try to approximate what were going to see in about three hours. Basically a mixture of what I think should happen/what we will see.

You think the PSU total touches 60 here?
 
TCU/OU will probably be closer to 52

Love for some lines in the 50's with NM/NMSU and Nevada/UNLV. both should be shootouts.
 
broadwayjoe said:
the ones that i would know anything about look pretty good...

i would think temple would come out lower though...44ish is what i was thinking

i would think nmst would come out higher, well at least i think it would be higher than kent/ball from what i know about the two matchups---i think that will be the higher scoring game...so i guess i would expect kent/ball to come out a little lower and nm/nmst higher if that makes sense.

could very well be wrong, but if nmst total does come out at 60ish, i'll most likely be on the over...

won't have any interest in the kent/ball under no matter what it comes out at as i can easily see kent getting to 28, which obviously the books don't see

which ones are you lookin at to pounce on?
Click to expand...

- Temple is a tough one - kept in the high 40s because WMU offense is very capable. If its 44 or lower I may make small play on the over. Interested to see how they compensate for DiMichele and the possible rain there.

- I guess I made NM a bit lower because NM isn't exactly a offensive juggernaut while both teams will score in the Kent/BSU game. Also, I kept the total high because I don't feel that the linesmakers compensated for the loss of Love in the line, so I don't see them doing that in the total either.

If I am remembering the box score correctly, I don't think that the stats full supported the high scoring game between NMSU and UTEP this week.

All in all though, you could probably switch those totals and I wouldn't be surprised.

- I'm looking at the EMU/NIU under because I'm stubborn and think I know EMU. I think they open this in the 60 area and will have to take the under if thats the case.

Maybe the Houston/ECU over if its low enough.

Pitt/Cuse under if its 50 or higher.

maybe the Cal over if its reasonable? They could get 50 and you have to figure CSU is good for some garbage points.

Florida Int/Toledo Under could be a possibility too.

Tough to guess though as there is always a couple that surprise me each week. :cheers:
 
JPicks said:
TCU/OU will probably be closer to 52

Love for some lines in the 50's with NM/NMSU and Nevada/UNLV. both should be shootouts.
Click to expand...

You think TCU gets 17 here? Was thinking 31-14 while your number suggests 35-17ish.

It will be higher than my posted number though, at the very least. The fact that Oklahoma is averaging over 50 a game will make it mid-high 40s at least.
 
If I am remembering the box score correctly, I don't think that the stats full supported the high scoring game between NMSU and UTEP this week.

You do realize that this total was bet up 10 points, right?
 
Dmoney416 said:
You think TCU gets 17 here?
Click to expand...


I really do. The offense looks to better than either of the previous two years and the Aaron Brown has only played in half a game. I also think that both teams will end up with a couple short fields. Hoping TCU gets more of those short fields than the Sooners.
 
hoopsstar22 said:
If I am remembering the box score correctly, I don't think that the stats full supported the high scoring game between NMSU and UTEP this week.

You do realize that this total was bet up 10 points, right?
Click to expand...

Yep, from like 53.5 to 63 or so?

What I meant was that even though there were 67 points scored, neither team had 400 yards of offense. there were seven total turnovers and 2 defensive scores.

So, given the box score and the closing number of UTEP game, I think 60.5 makes some sense, though it certainly could be higher. Where would you put this one hoops?
 
JPicks said:
I really do. The offense looks to better than either of the previous two years and the Aaron Brown has only played in half a game. I also think that both teams will end up with a couple short fields. Hoping TCU gets more of those short fields than the Sooners.
Click to expand...

Haven't seen them much this year - are they taking more shots downfield this year? I think I had them against someone last year and they didn't attempt anything past 10 yards the entire way.
 
Some where I differ:

Alabama/Georgia - 56/45
Maryland/Clemson - 52/42
Bowling Green/Wyoming - 44.5/38
 
To be honest Dmoney, I don't know shit about totals. I just caught wind that the UTEP/NMST total was WAY too low, and was able to grab a bunch at 58.

I was just pointing out the fact the total was to go soaring over last week, aside from what the box score says, and it takes a lot of money to move a line 10 full points without major injuries or ridiculously severe weather info.

Now I'm just blabbering, so I'll stop.
 
teams combined for 79 points last year ....and 67 the year before ... indiana isnt geting shut down at home and mich st should run right through the hoosiers.
 
are these low totals a reaction to how the rule changes have affected the first few weeks?

I think USC and WVU can cover the total themselves.
 
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