Tuesday the Giants are really bad now Discussion

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
leans from BOL open:
CHC +150/o8.5
TOR -125
SEA -110/u7.5
StL +120
CIN -105/u7
PHI +120
COL +237
PIT u7.5

on the radar:
CLE +150/u7.5
CHW o9
MIN u8
OAK +115/u9
StL u7.5
 
Updated leans:
CHC +153: Baker
StL +108
CIN u6.5: Miller
PHI +118
COL +240: Foster
PIT u7.5
CLE +144: Johnson
OAK +131: Estabrook

on the radar:
StL u7.5
SEA -119: Timmons
CHC o9: Baker
 
I played Reds -105 based on the subsequent game of that Padres trend from yesterday, the reduced juice, and Leake's 0.82 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and .158 batting average allowed in his three starts versus the Padres since last season.
 
Since 2006, pitchers coming off a no-hitter lined ≥ -125 are 3-10 SU (avg line 100) and 10-3 to the over (avg total 8.3), most recently Lincecum's start on July 22 last season where he was lined at -120 and the Reds beat the Giants 11-0. I'm just not sure what to make of Gonzalez after one debut start at Coors Field. And I know we are still stalking the ump in that game.
 
Is it a bad sign for SF that Tuesday is their 4-9 worst day of the week and the Cards are 8-4.
 
I played Reds -105 based on the subsequent game of that Padres trend from yesterday, the reduced juice, and Leake's 0.82 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and .158 batting average allowed in his three starts versus the Padres since last season.

went under myself
 
Pitching matchup:

Underdog Starter: 12 straight starts - 3 runs or less. 1 HR L63 IP. L10 starts - ERA 2.71

Favorite Starter: 4 runs or more 4 of L7 starts. L2, 9IP, 17 H, 10 R; 9 HR's L8 starts. L7 starts - ERA 4.68. 2 games this season vs. this opponent: 13 2/3 IP, 15 H, 8 runs, 3 HR's.
 
Jackson still has not won after a Cub win. He is 4-1 on 5 with a 5.54 ERA but he also has an ERA a little over 6 at night and a 1-6 record on the road along with a 6.70 road ERA so why would that be a lean. Essentially you want to play him at home in the day after a Cub loss
 
Starters that can be considered as dogs
Miley
Matzuzaka
Burnett
Ganzalez
Maybe Mills
Kuroda
Cosart
Carroll
I am ruling out Estrada because of the Toronto 10-3 Days record
I am ruling out Masterson despite a great record on 6 days rest because Beckett is godlike on 4 days rest and the Dodgers are 9-3
WS game 2 possibly
Do not know the starters in Baltimore
 
Pitching matchup:

Underdog Starter: 12 straight starts - 3 runs or less. 1 HR L63 IP. L10 starts - ERA 2.71

Favorite Starter: 4 runs or more 4 of L7 starts. L2, 9IP, 17 H, 10 R; 9 HR's L8 starts. L7 starts - ERA 4.68. 2 games this season vs. this opponent: 13 2/3 IP, 15 H, 8 runs, 3 HR's.

Cosart vs. Iwakuma
 
Key Element which surprises me is playing against Cosart. Days favor Seattle. Just saw this


Jays costing bettors, but Overs cashing on Canada Day

The Rogers Centre will be a sea of red and white Tuesday with the sold-out home crowd celebrating Canada Day. The Toronto Blue Jays, who will sport their special red July 1 uniforms, take on the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of a two-game set.

The Blue Jays haven’t been at their best on Canada’s birthday in recent years. In fact, they’ve lost three of their last four July 1 matchups heading into Tuesday’s contest.

Since 1999, Toronto is 6-9 on Canada Day, but do sport a winning 4-3 record at home. If you wagered $100 on each of those 15 games, you’d be down -$166.63 and trading in your ice-cold Moosehead Cracked Canoe for a warm case of Laker Lager your uncle found in his old boat.

The Jays have been home for the holiday the past three seasons, defeating the Detroit Tigers 8-3 last year, losing 10-6 to the Los Angeles Angels in 2012 and 7-6 to the Philadelphia Phillies in 2011. All three of those games played over the total.

Toronto is 8-7 over/under on July 1 (4-3 over/under at home) and has actually outscored opponents 80-70 over those 15 games, with an average of 10 combined runs in those contests.

Drew Hutchison (5-6, 4.00 ERA) gets the call for Canada Day, coming off a loss in a six inning effort versus the New York Yankees his last time out. The Blue Jays are just 1-3 in his last four starts and 1-4 Over/Under over his last five. He matches pitches with Brewers righty Marco Estrada (7-4, 5.06 ERA, 11-4-1 O/U). The O/U is 7-0 in Estrada's previous seven starts.

Toronto is just 3-6 as a moneyline favorite on Canada Day since 1999, with a 3-3 mark as an underdog.
maybe we have to look at Estrada​
 
i am to put it mildly not an Arizona fan but Arizona away is 4-4 vs lefties. Miley has great numbers at the site and Locke has been a little worse on 6. Pitt is the better team obviously.
Milwaukee has a major trend
off giving up 10 runs they are 4-0 this season and 15-8 last 3 years
They are 5-2 off a day off and our a much better day team. Probably wait for ump and toss a average bet on them as Estrada has done well in the past as a dog
 
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I think the Jays home games really depend on the roof status. Like when Shelby Miller shut them out with the roof open in the middle of the day not too long ago. I'll try to dig up the trends, but I think you want to know the roof status above all else and then go under when it is open. I know we've talked about the whole home run thing with the roof open/closed already this season.
 
Not sure about that. Brewers on the road in first game of series are 12-1 over this year and in the 10 runs variation the next game was 4-0 over. Heavy lean to over here
 
Jackson still has not won after a Cub win. He is 4-1 on 5 with a 5.54 ERA but he also has an ERA a little over 6 at night and a 1-6 record on the road along with a 6.70 road ERA so why would that be a lean. Essentially you want to play him at home in the day after a Cub loss

i'm still going to play him because Buchholz shouldn't be giving me and my 65mph fastball $0.50
 
Direct tv " regional game ", is either Detroit or Washington what's my region if I live in Southern New Hampshire ?
 
Richards last 2 years on 6
5 innings this year 1.80 ERA
2013 7 innings gave up 0
Not till this year was he good in the day and in 2012 had over a 4 ERA on 6 plus over around 24 innings
 
Things do look bad for Cosart 4 days rest 4.38. Timmons usually does not like home dogs. Most of Cosarts wins in the Day.
All that is true but his current form is awesome and a good deal better than Iwakuma.
 
PITTSBURGH is 21-7 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
 
[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: matchupCells Text, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]STRASBURG is 1-6 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in home games in July games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: matchupCells Text, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]STRASBURG is 1-8 (-11.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
ATLANTA is 35-15 (+15.3 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
 
[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: matchupCells Text, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]KENNEDY is 8-17 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: matchupCells Text, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]KENNEDY is 7-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
ST LOUIS is 4-12 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
 
TAMPA BAY is 21-5 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons.

NY YANKEES are 9-15 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
 
NOLASCO is 21-6 (+18.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday in his career. (Team's Record)
 
ESTRADA is 8-1 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

MILWAUKEE is 21-11 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

MILWAUKEE is 11-4 (+8.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season.
 
CHICAGO CUBS are 1-11 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
 
LA DODGERS are 0-6 (-7.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
 
LA ANGELS are 23-11 (+11.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: matchupHeader, bgcolor: #EEEEDD, align: center"]JERED WEAVER vs. CHI WHITE SOX [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: matchupCells Text, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]WEAVER is 8-2 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 1.70 and a WHIP of 0.892.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: matchupCells Text, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]His team's record is 9-2 (+5.8 units) in these starts.[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Updated leans:
CHC +160/o9.5 Baker
StL +115/u7
PHI +131
PIT u8

on the radar:
SEA -131: Timmons
 
Pirates are 7-0-2 L9 at home to the over after a day of rest. I'm going o8 -110 for some last resort action on one of these games.
 
That. Was a hell of a 9th inning.

BrgLiI_CYAA0q1u.jpg:large
 
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