Yeah I'm going to give it a go. Here's my philosophy for picking 1Q's. I do play outside of this system... but for the most part I found myself looking at this information and running with it. I don't like getting moosed and the rush of watching a quarter with 1-4 units on it is unmatched...
TRIAL-VERY SIMPLE-1Q ATS SYSTEM
1-0:Wacka%20Wacka:
1Q system I'm going to give a go is pretty simple. First, you take the team with the better record... at this point it does not matter who is home or away. We are just trying to figure out who is the better team on a nuetral court to begin with.
Then, if the better team is home take their home record and compare it to the road team's away record. Usually in this case the team with the better record will have a better homecourt record. However, if the better team (on a nuetral court) has a better road record vs. the home court team then an AWAY play and HOME fade is possible.
Then, take a look at the last 5 1Q's both teams have played. If the team with the better overall record, and the better home/away record depending on where the game is being played... look at their recent 1Q performances. If they have won SU at LEAST 3 out of their last 5 in that scenario (Home/Away) then the system is still in play. Lastly, you do the same for the other team. If they have LOST at least 3 of their last 5 1Q's SU in that scenario (Home if Home, Away if Away) then this would be considered a PLAY.
Quick rundown of this system that came out the gates 1-0.
-Take the team with the better overall record.
-If this is the home team, the home team must have a better home record than the away team's road record.
-If this is a road team, the road team's AWAY record must be better than the home team's HOME record.
-Take a look at the last 5 1Q's.. if the home team is the play only look at the last 5 home games. They must have won the 1Q SU at least 3 out of the last 5 or 60%.
-Take a look at the other side, the opposition must have lost at LEAST 3 1Q's SU in their last 5. So if a road team... must have lost 3 out of their last 5 1Q's SU.
What does that give us? Well.. I'm hoping it gives you of course the better team (Overall Record, Better Home/Road record vs. Opponents Road/Home Record). Then the L5 is to bring some recent trends to the system. We want teams comming out the gates strong vs. teams who are struggling to come out the gates. You have the better team, you have the better team in that scenario (road/away) and a team whose momentum early is better than their oppositions early (1Q).
Last night Dallas has a better record than Minny, and they have a better record at home than Minny does on the road (Obviously). Dallas, has won SU 1Q's 4 out of their last 5 to go 4-1. Minny, on the road has lost their L5 1Q's 3 times with a tie.. so a 1-3-1 record. Therefore, this was a play. Spread's are not taken into consideration... perhaps I can work that into it at a later time...
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