Tuesday Plays

Inspekdah

Inspekdah

My man, Michael Jordan!
As of right now all I know is which 1Q's I'm probably going to hit once they are released.

1 Quarter's
New Jersey**** -2 3 Units LOSS
New Orleans** -1.5 3 Units WIN
Houston** -2.5 3 Units WIN
Denver** -2.5 2 Units WIN
Sacramento* -1.5 2 Units LOSS
Lakers**** -2.5 3 Units WIN

Wizards -2 1Q 3 Units:wacka wacka:

* = System Play and my gut feeling on the strength of it.


Need to double check these to make sure each opposing team on the road here struggles first quarter.. I believe all of the ones mentioned above have done well 1Q the majority of the time at home. I'm too tired now and I know if I try to recall each team's last 5 home/road games I'll make a mistake or two.


Leans:

Indiana/POR UND 188.5
Lakers/Bucks OVR 202
Nets/Bobcats UND 187
 
Looks like a solid idea. All I know is that Denver has been lights out this year 1stQ. They are covering at an 80% clip or something. GL with the tuesday card bro.
 
Yeah I'm going to give it a go. Here's my philosophy for picking 1Q's. I do play outside of this system... but for the most part I found myself looking at this information and running with it. I don't like getting moosed and the rush of watching a quarter with 1-4 units on it is unmatched...
TRIAL-VERY SIMPLE-1Q ATS SYSTEM
1-0:Wacka%20Wacka:

1Q system I'm going to give a go is pretty simple. First, you take the team with the better record... at this point it does not matter who is home or away. We are just trying to figure out who is the better team on a nuetral court to begin with.

Then, if the better team is home take their home record and compare it to the road team's away record. Usually in this case the team with the better record will have a better homecourt record. However, if the better team (on a nuetral court) has a better road record vs. the home court team then an AWAY play and HOME fade is possible.

Then, take a look at the last 5 1Q's both teams have played. If the team with the better overall record, and the better home/away record depending on where the game is being played... look at their recent 1Q performances. If they have won SU at LEAST 3 out of their last 5 in that scenario (Home/Away) then the system is still in play. Lastly, you do the same for the other team. If they have LOST at least 3 of their last 5 1Q's SU in that scenario (Home if Home, Away if Away) then this would be considered a PLAY.

Quick rundown of this system that came out the gates 1-0.

-Take the team with the better overall record.
-If this is the home team, the home team must have a better home record than the away team's road record.
-If this is a road team, the road team's AWAY record must be better than the home team's HOME record.
-Take a look at the last 5 1Q's.. if the home team is the play only look at the last 5 home games. They must have won the 1Q SU at least 3 out of the last 5 or 60%.
-Take a look at the other side, the opposition must have lost at LEAST 3 1Q's SU in their last 5. So if a road team... must have lost 3 out of their last 5 1Q's SU.


What does that give us? Well.. I'm hoping it gives you of course the better team (Overall Record, Better Home/Road record vs. Opponents Road/Home Record). Then the L5 is to bring some recent trends to the system. We want teams comming out the gates strong vs. teams who are struggling to come out the gates. You have the better team, you have the better team in that scenario (road/away) and a team whose momentum early is better than their oppositions early (1Q).

Last night Dallas has a better record than Minny, and they have a better record at home than Minny does on the road (Obviously). Dallas, has won SU 1Q's 4 out of their last 5 to go 4-1. Minny, on the road has lost their L5 1Q's 3 times with a tie.. so a 1-3-1 record. Therefore, this was a play. Spread's are not taken into consideration... perhaps I can work that into it at a later time...
__________________
 
Well why don't you edit it partner? lol


My laptop fonts are all whack... I'd get to work and be like WTF.. but right now it looked fine... but I bumped it up a size...

Thanks guys.. like to see what you guys lean to on this decent sized card.
 
I already played Bobcats +7+100 for 2 units...other than that I hate card..waiting on last lines to get up
 
I'd lean that way... NJ has to be exhausted.. I just hope they come out looking strong then I'd like to see them fade to a win by 6 or less.
 
I'll make sure to lay off fading Clippers 1Q so you hit lol... 2/3 times i faded them they won SU... now 2-11 in 1Q or something like that, but i'll be watching this system of yours spek, GL
 
Gl. interesting system.

looking at tonights card, It seems like a good night for ML parlays and teasers.
 
Denver has been much better as a dog in the first guarter than as a favorite. They have won by inadequate margins at least 3 times at home. Have to like the NJ play as they have great first quarter history vs Bobcats as well as in general being very good in first quarters. Blast from the past. First time I mentioned NJ as a first quarter bet to BAR a couple years ago instant loser. But have stuck with them for years just cleaning up. GL
 
Actually you probably will get home with Denver just based on Griz first quarter weakness but in general not a fan of laying more than 2 with Denver unlike teams like Dallas that semiautomaticly seem to win by big margins.:shake:
 
Your 1st Q reasoning seems good. I hope you have success, but I feel that early performance is too random in the regular season. I will note that I had awesome success last year with home teams in the 1st Q during the latter rounds of the playoffs.
 
Locked in..

System Plays:

Nets -2 1Q 3 Units
Rockets -2.5 1Q 2 Units
Hornets -1.5 1Q 2 Units
Nuggets -2.5 1Q 2 Units
 
tuck321 said:
Denver has been much better as a dog in the first guarter than as a favorite. They have won by inadequate margins at least 3 times at home. Have to like the NJ play as they have great first quarter history vs Bobcats as well as in general being very good in first quarters. Blast from the past. First time I mentioned NJ as a first quarter bet to BAR a couple years ago instant loser. But have stuck with them for years just cleaning up. GL
Click to expand...

I remember that now Tuck...good memory.:cheers:
 
Thanks Guys.

Smo1a, I agree that it is random. But I've been doing extremely well doing it... not sure exactly how much of the units I've won is that but I'd guess close to half. There is alot of parody this season in the NBA and it just seems like usually a home court crowd vs. a wary road team is a great spot for the home team to jump out early.




Wizards 1Q Win does not count (for sys) as Hawks were 2-2-1 1Q on the road L5.
 
All I gotta say is WOW. Nice fucking day bro. Immediately after I saw your reasoning on the system I knew it was going to have a good day. Glad to see you hit majority of these. I've been playing some 1stQ lines this year esp on the Nugz and I use a very similar system to you. Basically what I have been doing is looking back over the past 1stQ results for both teams and going from there, but I think your theory has a more solid structure to it and this will save me some extra time by narrowing down the 1stQ games.
Congrats and I hope this system continues to roll along. I'll definitely be using this thread for many of my 1stQ bets.
Mad props for this theory.
 
yes inspekdah..lets win some cash on wednesday, im leaning towards Pho on HOu/Pho game...any insights?
 
Good look there with PHO. PHO makes Yao almost useless. On the road I don't see how HOU will be able to make the Suns play halfcourt ball. Plus, the Rockets shoot ALOT of 3's... this will fuel the fast break for the Rockets... haven't been able to see the Rockets play a good fast break team this season yet but 5 is nothing for this team to cover... I will probably play that with you.
 
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