NBA Best Bets for March 25: Defense Reigns in Portland Tonight
Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tuesday, March 25, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center
Series History
Orlando has dominated the Hornets this year.
Against Charlotte, Orlando is 3-0. The Magic won all three games by double digits.
As I wrote about when I correctly predicted a strong Magic win over the Pelicans, Orlando excels in games against teams that have a bad defense.
The Magic have one of the highest-ranking defenses, but their offense can be questionable.
They regularly beat teams, like the Hornets, that have poor defenses because, when playing such teams, their defense is great like usual and they do not have to worry about scoring enough points.
Charlotte has a poor defense, ranking 23rd in defensive rating, against which Orlando will easily score enough points to cover the spread.
Best Bet: Magic -5 at -110 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tuesday, March 25, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center
A Battle of Strengths
This game will be a battle of strengths in the sense that the strengths of both defenses will be amplified in this matchup.
Portland's strength is guarding the perimeter. The Trail Blazers are one of the best teams at limiting opposing three-point attempts in general and at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
Cleveland's strength involves its athletic and highly able rim protection that enables it to allow the fifth-fewest field goal makes per game within five feet of the basket.
Cleveland's offense will struggle tonight because it depends strongly on making threes: the Cavaliers attempt the fourth-most threes per game.
But Portland's offense will also struggle because it depends on attacking the basket. The Trail Blazers attempt the second-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
The matchup indicates that both offenses will struggle. Oddsmakers set a high total for this game, failing to account for these matchup details.
Best Bet: Under 231.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Houston Rockets
Tuesday, March 25, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Toyota Center
Respecting Alperen Sengun
Houston starting center Alperen Sengun's defense unfairly has a bad reputation.
His defensive rating suggests that he is actually doing an excellent job on defense.
More importantly, his defense is contributing to his team's wins, as evident in the consecutive overtime wins over Minnesota and Philadelphia that Houston, largely thanks to Sengun's rim
protection down the stretch, achieved at the end of November.
He ably deals with ball-screens, for example, by deterring the opposing ball-handler and quickly recovering back to the basket.
Because of Sengun, Houston reliably limits the scoring of teams that rely extensively on scoring at the basket.
Atlanta especially without the good shooting of departed forward De'Andre Hunter, is such a team — the Hawks rank 19th in three-point percentage and fourth in field goals attempted within five feet of the basket.
Houston is undefeated against Atlanta, Toronto, and New Orleans teams that are averse to shooting threes and depend on scoring near the basket. It helps Houston's offense and further helps to characterize the games that Houston is likeliest to win to know that all three of those teams also rank in the bottom half in defensive rating.
Atlanta is the type of team that Houston regularly beats.
Houston's Offense
When these two teams played, Houston won by four in Atlanta.
The Rockets scored 100 points but can score a lot more against this team.
In that game, they underachieved massively in terms of their open three-point attempt conversion rate against what is an awful perimeter defense — Atlanta ranks 25th at limiting opposing three-point makes.
With better shooting, Houston will exceed 100 points in this rematch, while Atlanta's offense will still struggle against the likes of Sengun.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, March 25, 2025 at 9 p.m. ET at Delta Center
Get-Right Spot
After facing hot and high-caliber teams, Memphis gets to face a Utah group that has lost 12 of its last 13 games, with the one win coming against lowly Washington.
Utah's last four losses have all come by 14 or more points.
This is a great place for Memphis to end its losing streak by focusing on its opponent and proving its superiority.
The Grizzlies are heavily favored because their record says that they are the much better team, but this is more than about records.
Memphis matches up well against a Utah team that, by 3.2 more points than any other team, allows the most scoring in transition per game.
The Grizzlies love to run more than any other team, so they will thrive against the Jazz defense.
Utah's offense, on the other hand, can't be relied upon against any defense that is not one of the worst defenses, such as Washington's.
The Jazz, in their last four losses, failed to exceed 102 points.
While Ja Morant is out for Memphis, the Grizzlies won't miss his defense and have enough scoring guards to make up for his absence.
Utah, on the other hand, will miss its co-leading scorer, Lauri Markkanen. An already awful offense thus gets worse, lacking the weapons to make up for his scoring.
I'm seeing a 111-100 win for Memphis here.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Sacramento Kings
Tuesday, March 25, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
The Spot
This is a big fade spot for Sacramento against what is anyhow an elite Oklahoma City team.
We must fade the Kings tonight because they are on the second leg of a back-to-back, whereas the Thunder get to play off a day of rest.
Sacramento has lost its last six second legs. It stayed within single digits of teams like Portland and New Orleans but struggled more heavily against teams that are better at scoring, such as Chicago and Denver.
OKC ranks fourth in offensive rating and will put up a high scoring output with which to complement its top-caliber defense.
Best Bet: Parlay Rockets ML (-330), Grizzlies ML (-460), Thunder ML (-425) at -104 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tuesday, March 25, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center
Series History
Orlando has dominated the Hornets this year.
Against Charlotte, Orlando is 3-0. The Magic won all three games by double digits.
As I wrote about when I correctly predicted a strong Magic win over the Pelicans, Orlando excels in games against teams that have a bad defense.
The Magic have one of the highest-ranking defenses, but their offense can be questionable.
They regularly beat teams, like the Hornets, that have poor defenses because, when playing such teams, their defense is great like usual and they do not have to worry about scoring enough points.
Charlotte has a poor defense, ranking 23rd in defensive rating, against which Orlando will easily score enough points to cover the spread.
Best Bet: Magic -5 at -110 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tuesday, March 25, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center
A Battle of Strengths
This game will be a battle of strengths in the sense that the strengths of both defenses will be amplified in this matchup.
Portland's strength is guarding the perimeter. The Trail Blazers are one of the best teams at limiting opposing three-point attempts in general and at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
Cleveland's strength involves its athletic and highly able rim protection that enables it to allow the fifth-fewest field goal makes per game within five feet of the basket.
Cleveland's offense will struggle tonight because it depends strongly on making threes: the Cavaliers attempt the fourth-most threes per game.
But Portland's offense will also struggle because it depends on attacking the basket. The Trail Blazers attempt the second-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
The matchup indicates that both offenses will struggle. Oddsmakers set a high total for this game, failing to account for these matchup details.
Best Bet: Under 231.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Houston Rockets
Tuesday, March 25, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Toyota Center
Respecting Alperen Sengun
Houston starting center Alperen Sengun's defense unfairly has a bad reputation.
His defensive rating suggests that he is actually doing an excellent job on defense.
More importantly, his defense is contributing to his team's wins, as evident in the consecutive overtime wins over Minnesota and Philadelphia that Houston, largely thanks to Sengun's rim
protection down the stretch, achieved at the end of November.
He ably deals with ball-screens, for example, by deterring the opposing ball-handler and quickly recovering back to the basket.
Because of Sengun, Houston reliably limits the scoring of teams that rely extensively on scoring at the basket.
Atlanta especially without the good shooting of departed forward De'Andre Hunter, is such a team — the Hawks rank 19th in three-point percentage and fourth in field goals attempted within five feet of the basket.
Houston is undefeated against Atlanta, Toronto, and New Orleans teams that are averse to shooting threes and depend on scoring near the basket. It helps Houston's offense and further helps to characterize the games that Houston is likeliest to win to know that all three of those teams also rank in the bottom half in defensive rating.
Atlanta is the type of team that Houston regularly beats.
Houston's Offense
When these two teams played, Houston won by four in Atlanta.
The Rockets scored 100 points but can score a lot more against this team.
In that game, they underachieved massively in terms of their open three-point attempt conversion rate against what is an awful perimeter defense — Atlanta ranks 25th at limiting opposing three-point makes.
With better shooting, Houston will exceed 100 points in this rematch, while Atlanta's offense will still struggle against the likes of Sengun.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, March 25, 2025 at 9 p.m. ET at Delta Center
Get-Right Spot
After facing hot and high-caliber teams, Memphis gets to face a Utah group that has lost 12 of its last 13 games, with the one win coming against lowly Washington.
Utah's last four losses have all come by 14 or more points.
This is a great place for Memphis to end its losing streak by focusing on its opponent and proving its superiority.
The Grizzlies are heavily favored because their record says that they are the much better team, but this is more than about records.
Memphis matches up well against a Utah team that, by 3.2 more points than any other team, allows the most scoring in transition per game.
The Grizzlies love to run more than any other team, so they will thrive against the Jazz defense.
Utah's offense, on the other hand, can't be relied upon against any defense that is not one of the worst defenses, such as Washington's.
The Jazz, in their last four losses, failed to exceed 102 points.
While Ja Morant is out for Memphis, the Grizzlies won't miss his defense and have enough scoring guards to make up for his absence.
Utah, on the other hand, will miss its co-leading scorer, Lauri Markkanen. An already awful offense thus gets worse, lacking the weapons to make up for his scoring.
I'm seeing a 111-100 win for Memphis here.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Sacramento Kings
Tuesday, March 25, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
The Spot
This is a big fade spot for Sacramento against what is anyhow an elite Oklahoma City team.
We must fade the Kings tonight because they are on the second leg of a back-to-back, whereas the Thunder get to play off a day of rest.
Sacramento has lost its last six second legs. It stayed within single digits of teams like Portland and New Orleans but struggled more heavily against teams that are better at scoring, such as Chicago and Denver.
OKC ranks fourth in offensive rating and will put up a high scoring output with which to complement its top-caliber defense.
Best Bet: Parlay Rockets ML (-330), Grizzlies ML (-460), Thunder ML (-425) at -104 with BetOnline
