2025 NBA Playoffs Best Bets for April 20: The Rockets Are Being Disrespected
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 1 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
Dominant Transition Basketball
The Grizzlies match up horribly against the Thunder.
This is evident in the fact that OKC won all four regular season games against Memphis by 13 points or more.
Both teams rely heavily on scoring in transition, but only the Thunder defend well against transition offense.
Whereas the Grizzlies allow the sixth-most points against field goals attempted in transition, the Thunder allow the fewest.
Difference in Quality
The difference in quality between each team's defense is also, generally speaking, immense.
If you just look at recent score lines, then you might gain optimism toward Memphis' defense. But the Grizzlies have benefited from absurd anomalies and key absences.
When they held Dallas, for example, to 97 points, the Mavericks missed Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis. When Denver "only" scored 117 points against them, the Nuggets made 5 of their 24 three-point attempts.
Likewise, Memphis benefited from Tyler Herro's absence when it held Miami to 108 points, from an unfit Cade Cunningham when it limited Detroit to 103 points, and from LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller being absent when Charlotte scored 100 points against it.
Otherwise, this is a Grizzlies defense that regularly gives up over 120 points to good offenses. It does not have a good defense, whereas OKC ranks number one in defensive rating by a clear margin.
Parlay Leg 1: Thunder ML (-900) at BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 3:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden Arena
Orlando's Perimeter Defense
The Magic perimeter defense is elite.
Ball-pressure from guards helps Orlando stifle top scorers like Devin Booker. They have strong point-of-attack defenders like Anthony Black and reliable wing-stoppers like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
With players like these, they have the ingredients to limit a Boston offense that relies heavily on threes from its guards and wings.
The Celtics attempt, by far, the most threes per game. They will struggle against an Orlando offense that allows at least one fewer made three-pointer per game than any other team.
Orlando's Offense
Given the spread and given the strength of its defense, Orlando will need to be egregiously bad on offense if the Celtics want to cover the spread.
The Magic offense, though, matches up well against Boston.
On defense, Boston primarily wants to take away field goal attempts at the rim and shot attempts from either corner.
This strategy makes the Celtics effective against typical teams.
But Orlando's offense is atypical.
The Magic, led by skilled scorers Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, are more mid-range-oriented. Their strength in the mid-range positions them positively against a Boston defense that guards the mid-range less well, allowing the second-most field goals 15-19 feet from the basket.
Parlay Recap
The Thunder will win by scoring more effectively in transition than Memphis. Orlando will cover by limiting Boston's three-point-oriented attack and by thriving on offense in the mid-range.
Parlay Leg 2: Magic +13.5 at -112 with BetOnline
Parlay: Thunder ML (-900) & Magic +13.5 (-112) with BetOnline at +110 with BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena
Cleveland's Complete Offense
The Cavaliers will demonstrate the completeness of their offense in this matchup.
They primarily like to shoot threes, but they also have strong rim-attackers like Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.
Their mid-range game is efficient because even their backups like Ty Jerome are solid in this space.
While they can lean on mid-range jumpers if they need to, they will primarily want to use the pressure that they place on the opposing team's basket to generate three-point attempts.
Overall, they attempt the fourth-most threes per game.
Miami's Perimeter Defense
Cleveland's endeavor to make threes is especially important for its outlook on offense.
The Cavs have a strong outlook on offense against a Miami defense that allows the most open three-point attempts per game.
Cleveland has a lot of good shooters both in its starting lineup and on its bench to go with its plethora of high-quality rim-attackers.
Max Strus, for example, is generally overlooked in Cleveland's stacked offense, but he is someone who can thrive especially in this matchup.
Strus improved significantly from behind the arc this season, converting 38.6 percent of his three-point attempts. Miami will probably want to hide Tyler Herro on defense by having him guard Strus, who could punish Herro.
Miami's Outlook on Offense
Herro, of course, is known for his good offense and not for his defense. He excels in general at creating his own shot.
He is Miami's top scorer partly because, as we saw in Miami's last game when he caught fire late with pull-up jumpers, he can dominate in the mid-range spaces.
Overall, the Heat love to score 5-14 feet from the basket.
They will flourish against a Cleveland defense that is one of the worst teams at limiting field goal makes in this space.
The Cavs are highly-ranked on defense because their endeavor to limit field goal attempts at the basket helps them against most teams. But Miami is one of those exceptional teams that will want to use the mid-range to thrive against their defense.
Takeaway
Both teams have a great outlook on offense. Cleveland's offense is always worth trusting with its completeness, but it will thrive especially from its preferred spaces behind the arc against Miami's perimeter defense.
The Heat will use the mid-range to keep the scoring high.
Best Bet: Over 215.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Toyota Center
Houston's Perimeter Defense
Golden State loves to shoot threes. It relies especially on sharpshooter Steph Curry.
But Houston has the Curry antidote with Amen Thompson, who is one of the NBA's best perimeter defenders.
Recently, Curry shot 1-for-10 when guarded by Thompson.
Led by Thompson, Houston is the second-best team at limiting three-point makes.
The Rockets thus match up excellently against a Golden State offense that attempts the second-most threes per game.
Houston's Offense
It is well-known that the Rockets have an elite defense.
The biggest doubt will be attached to their offense.
But Houston won't have to worry about scoring in this game
The Rockets love to score 10-19 feet from the basket and match up well against a Golden State defense that is one of the worst at limiting field goal makes in this space.
On defense, Golden State primarily wants to limit field goal attempts at the basket.
It is hard for a team to just alter what it's been practicing for and doing all season. The Rockets will punish Golden State for its defensive focus.
Takeaway
Looking at the odds, looking also at the future odds, I can't help but feel cynical when I see the love attached to ESPN darlings Warriors and Lakers.
Nine ESPN experts picked the Warriors to beat the Rockets in this series, whereas three picked Houston. The Warriors are also favored to win this series.
I don't know for sure why the Rockets aren't favored more heavily at home, but I can't help but wonder what role media-driven public perception plays in this spread.
In any case, I see that the Houston money-line is cheap, and I see Houston's blatant matchup edge. ESPN is wrong a lot, and the disrespected Rockets will prove a lot of people wrong.
Best Bet: Rockets ML at -116 with BetOnline
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 1 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
Dominant Transition Basketball
The Grizzlies match up horribly against the Thunder.
This is evident in the fact that OKC won all four regular season games against Memphis by 13 points or more.
Both teams rely heavily on scoring in transition, but only the Thunder defend well against transition offense.
Whereas the Grizzlies allow the sixth-most points against field goals attempted in transition, the Thunder allow the fewest.
Difference in Quality
The difference in quality between each team's defense is also, generally speaking, immense.
If you just look at recent score lines, then you might gain optimism toward Memphis' defense. But the Grizzlies have benefited from absurd anomalies and key absences.
When they held Dallas, for example, to 97 points, the Mavericks missed Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis. When Denver "only" scored 117 points against them, the Nuggets made 5 of their 24 three-point attempts.
Likewise, Memphis benefited from Tyler Herro's absence when it held Miami to 108 points, from an unfit Cade Cunningham when it limited Detroit to 103 points, and from LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller being absent when Charlotte scored 100 points against it.
Otherwise, this is a Grizzlies defense that regularly gives up over 120 points to good offenses. It does not have a good defense, whereas OKC ranks number one in defensive rating by a clear margin.
Parlay Leg 1: Thunder ML (-900) at BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 3:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden Arena
Orlando's Perimeter Defense
The Magic perimeter defense is elite.
Ball-pressure from guards helps Orlando stifle top scorers like Devin Booker. They have strong point-of-attack defenders like Anthony Black and reliable wing-stoppers like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
With players like these, they have the ingredients to limit a Boston offense that relies heavily on threes from its guards and wings.
The Celtics attempt, by far, the most threes per game. They will struggle against an Orlando offense that allows at least one fewer made three-pointer per game than any other team.
Orlando's Offense
Given the spread and given the strength of its defense, Orlando will need to be egregiously bad on offense if the Celtics want to cover the spread.
The Magic offense, though, matches up well against Boston.
On defense, Boston primarily wants to take away field goal attempts at the rim and shot attempts from either corner.
This strategy makes the Celtics effective against typical teams.
But Orlando's offense is atypical.
The Magic, led by skilled scorers Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, are more mid-range-oriented. Their strength in the mid-range positions them positively against a Boston defense that guards the mid-range less well, allowing the second-most field goals 15-19 feet from the basket.
Parlay Recap
The Thunder will win by scoring more effectively in transition than Memphis. Orlando will cover by limiting Boston's three-point-oriented attack and by thriving on offense in the mid-range.
Parlay Leg 2: Magic +13.5 at -112 with BetOnline
Parlay: Thunder ML (-900) & Magic +13.5 (-112) with BetOnline at +110 with BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena
Cleveland's Complete Offense
The Cavaliers will demonstrate the completeness of their offense in this matchup.
They primarily like to shoot threes, but they also have strong rim-attackers like Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.
Their mid-range game is efficient because even their backups like Ty Jerome are solid in this space.
While they can lean on mid-range jumpers if they need to, they will primarily want to use the pressure that they place on the opposing team's basket to generate three-point attempts.
Overall, they attempt the fourth-most threes per game.
Miami's Perimeter Defense
Cleveland's endeavor to make threes is especially important for its outlook on offense.
The Cavs have a strong outlook on offense against a Miami defense that allows the most open three-point attempts per game.
Cleveland has a lot of good shooters both in its starting lineup and on its bench to go with its plethora of high-quality rim-attackers.
Max Strus, for example, is generally overlooked in Cleveland's stacked offense, but he is someone who can thrive especially in this matchup.
Strus improved significantly from behind the arc this season, converting 38.6 percent of his three-point attempts. Miami will probably want to hide Tyler Herro on defense by having him guard Strus, who could punish Herro.
Miami's Outlook on Offense
Herro, of course, is known for his good offense and not for his defense. He excels in general at creating his own shot.
He is Miami's top scorer partly because, as we saw in Miami's last game when he caught fire late with pull-up jumpers, he can dominate in the mid-range spaces.
Overall, the Heat love to score 5-14 feet from the basket.
They will flourish against a Cleveland defense that is one of the worst teams at limiting field goal makes in this space.
The Cavs are highly-ranked on defense because their endeavor to limit field goal attempts at the basket helps them against most teams. But Miami is one of those exceptional teams that will want to use the mid-range to thrive against their defense.
Takeaway
Both teams have a great outlook on offense. Cleveland's offense is always worth trusting with its completeness, but it will thrive especially from its preferred spaces behind the arc against Miami's perimeter defense.
The Heat will use the mid-range to keep the scoring high.
Best Bet: Over 215.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Toyota Center
Houston's Perimeter Defense
Golden State loves to shoot threes. It relies especially on sharpshooter Steph Curry.
But Houston has the Curry antidote with Amen Thompson, who is one of the NBA's best perimeter defenders.
Recently, Curry shot 1-for-10 when guarded by Thompson.
Led by Thompson, Houston is the second-best team at limiting three-point makes.
The Rockets thus match up excellently against a Golden State offense that attempts the second-most threes per game.
Houston's Offense
It is well-known that the Rockets have an elite defense.
The biggest doubt will be attached to their offense.
But Houston won't have to worry about scoring in this game
The Rockets love to score 10-19 feet from the basket and match up well against a Golden State defense that is one of the worst at limiting field goal makes in this space.
On defense, Golden State primarily wants to limit field goal attempts at the basket.
It is hard for a team to just alter what it's been practicing for and doing all season. The Rockets will punish Golden State for its defensive focus.
Takeaway
Looking at the odds, looking also at the future odds, I can't help but feel cynical when I see the love attached to ESPN darlings Warriors and Lakers.
Nine ESPN experts picked the Warriors to beat the Rockets in this series, whereas three picked Houston. The Warriors are also favored to win this series.
I don't know for sure why the Rockets aren't favored more heavily at home, but I can't help but wonder what role media-driven public perception plays in this spread.
In any case, I see that the Houston money-line is cheap, and I see Houston's blatant matchup edge. ESPN is wrong a lot, and the disrespected Rockets will prove a lot of people wrong.
Best Bet: Rockets ML at -116 with BetOnline
