NBA Best Bets for March 11: The Clippers Own The Interior
Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena
The Big Spread
Detroit is favored very heavily in this game.
When looking at such a large spread, we have to think about possible score lines. In what ways is it realistic for Detroit to win by over 15 points?
The answer is: in a lot of ways.
Since February, they have scored at least 125 points eight different times.
On the other side, Washington over the course of the entire season averages 108 points per game.
To feel confident in Detroit tonight, we need to have good reason to believe that this is a matchup where their offense will explode. We should also feel like Washington's offense will perform worse than usual.
Washington Offense's Outlook
The Wizards' offense always has a rather negative outlook because they lack good shooters. Their three-point conversion rate is second-worst.
But their offense's outlook tonight is especially negative because they will also struggle to score inside the arc. Detroit allows the fourth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
Except for unusually up-tempo games or the occasional fluke where the Wizards are hot from behind the arc, Washington's offense regularly struggles to be efficient against teams that do a good job of protecting the basket.
On January 19, for example, the Wizards lost to Sacramento by 23 points while scoring all of 100 points.
Washington's Defense Is Awful
Whereas the Wizards will struggle to find ways to score, Detroit gets to face the NBA's third-worst defense, as measured by defensive rating.
The Pistons thrive against bottom-four defenses, scoring 133 and 121 points in two respective games against Phoenix, 119 and 134 points in two respective games against Utah, and 124 points in Washington.
Great Matchup
Apart from Washington's defense being objectively awful overall, the Pistons' offense also has a great matchup advantage.
Detroit loves to run, relying most extensively on scoring in transition. The Pistons attempt the third-most field goals in transition.
Washington's defense allows the sixth-most points in transition.
Takeaway
When Washington lost 124-104 at home to Detroit, the Wizards actually had one of their rare fantastic performances from behind the arc.
Without that strong shooting tonight, they won't sniff 100 points. Detroit's offense, on the other hand, is explosive enough to still score over 120 points without performing unusually well from behind the arc, as evident when they recently scored 134 points against Utah's low-ranking defense despite converting 26 percent of their threes.
Facing a poor defense that matches up poorly with its offense, Detroit will literally run away with a big victory.
Best Bet: Pistons -14.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Brooklyn Nets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena
Cleveland's Excellent Defense
It almost feels like a given that Brooklyn will struggle to score tonight. Whereas the Cavaliers own the seventh-best defense per defensive rating, Brooklyn ranks fourth-to-last in offensive rating.
In three games against the Nets so far, Cleveland has allowed 100, 101, and 97 points, respectively.
Brooklyn's Great Improvement
Looking at their three previous meetings, Cleveland scored 105, 130, and 110 points, respectively, against the Nets.
Obviously, if the Cavaliers score 130 points tonight, then the "under" will have a tough chance of hitting.
So, the question is whether we should expect the Cavaliers to score around 105 or 110 points or whether we should expect them to explode.
The answer is easy because the game in which they scored 130 points took place back in December.
Since then, Brooklyn's ball-screen defense has improved tremendously.
The Nets now allow the fewest points against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
Their tremendous improvement matters tonight because Cleveland relies on this play type, by a clear margin, more than any other team.
Both defenses also have a strong matchup advantage tonight because they guard the three-point line carefully, doing a great job of limiting opposing three-point attempts, which positions them very well against offenses — such as Cleveland and Brooklyn's — that rely heavily on making threes.
Brooklyn's offense will continue to struggle, especially if one of its rare talented scorers Cam Thomas remains sidelined with his hamstring injury, in this matchup. Cleveland's offense, though, won't be nearly as good as it needs to be to threaten our "under."
Best Bet: Under 228.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center
Outlook for New Orleans' Offense
The Pelicans have to rely on scoring inside the arc. They lack good shooters, ranking 23rd in three-point percentage.
They have become increasingly dependent on scoring at the basket. Currently, they attempt the ninth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
This reliance on scoring at the basket positions them poorly against a Clippers defense that is designed to limit points at the basket.
The Clippers beat Washington by 17 and, despite attempting way fewer shots, the Hornets on the road by eight because they were able to allow low point totals because they faced teams that, true to character, suffered from poor three-point shooting and from an inability to score much inside.
Center Ivica Zubac is regularly positioned near the basket given his propensity for drop coverage. He is one of the best centers in drop coverage.
Largely because of him, the Clippers are the seventh-best team at limiting field goal makes within five feet of the basket.
New Orleans Doesn't Defend Well
Los Angeles' offense will have an easy test tonight against a Pelicans defense that ranks dead-last in defensive rating.
Given this ranking, it's impossible to like the Pelicans when you don't like their offense to do well.
Point guard James Harden is playing really well both as a scorer and as a distributor.
With Kawhi Leonard likewise averaging well over 20 points in this month, the Clippers will own the mid-range. But they also feature efficient scoring at the basket, with Zubac playing a greater role on the offensive end, as evident in his strong uptick in field goal attempts and points in this month.
When the Pelicans only gave up 107 points to Memphis in their last game, they benefitted from an off day from Memphis' rookie center who is mired in an ongoing scoring slump.
But the Pelicans had regularly been giving up 125 or more points while struggling against opposing centers, with guys like Jaxson Hayes for the Lakers and Alperen Sengun for the Rockets scoring around 20 or more points.
With Zubac continuing to be a very efficient and productive scorer every game, one has to expect a strong output both from him and his offense.
The Clippers would get a boost with a strong performance from behind the arc, but they have so many major interior scoring weapons to help them blow past 120 points.
Best Bet: Clippers -6 at -115 with BetOnline
Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena
The Big Spread
Detroit is favored very heavily in this game.
When looking at such a large spread, we have to think about possible score lines. In what ways is it realistic for Detroit to win by over 15 points?
The answer is: in a lot of ways.
Since February, they have scored at least 125 points eight different times.
On the other side, Washington over the course of the entire season averages 108 points per game.
To feel confident in Detroit tonight, we need to have good reason to believe that this is a matchup where their offense will explode. We should also feel like Washington's offense will perform worse than usual.
Washington Offense's Outlook
The Wizards' offense always has a rather negative outlook because they lack good shooters. Their three-point conversion rate is second-worst.
But their offense's outlook tonight is especially negative because they will also struggle to score inside the arc. Detroit allows the fourth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
Except for unusually up-tempo games or the occasional fluke where the Wizards are hot from behind the arc, Washington's offense regularly struggles to be efficient against teams that do a good job of protecting the basket.
On January 19, for example, the Wizards lost to Sacramento by 23 points while scoring all of 100 points.
Washington's Defense Is Awful
Whereas the Wizards will struggle to find ways to score, Detroit gets to face the NBA's third-worst defense, as measured by defensive rating.
The Pistons thrive against bottom-four defenses, scoring 133 and 121 points in two respective games against Phoenix, 119 and 134 points in two respective games against Utah, and 124 points in Washington.
Great Matchup
Apart from Washington's defense being objectively awful overall, the Pistons' offense also has a great matchup advantage.
Detroit loves to run, relying most extensively on scoring in transition. The Pistons attempt the third-most field goals in transition.
Washington's defense allows the sixth-most points in transition.
Takeaway
When Washington lost 124-104 at home to Detroit, the Wizards actually had one of their rare fantastic performances from behind the arc.
Without that strong shooting tonight, they won't sniff 100 points. Detroit's offense, on the other hand, is explosive enough to still score over 120 points without performing unusually well from behind the arc, as evident when they recently scored 134 points against Utah's low-ranking defense despite converting 26 percent of their threes.
Facing a poor defense that matches up poorly with its offense, Detroit will literally run away with a big victory.
Best Bet: Pistons -14.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Brooklyn Nets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena
Cleveland's Excellent Defense
It almost feels like a given that Brooklyn will struggle to score tonight. Whereas the Cavaliers own the seventh-best defense per defensive rating, Brooklyn ranks fourth-to-last in offensive rating.
In three games against the Nets so far, Cleveland has allowed 100, 101, and 97 points, respectively.
Brooklyn's Great Improvement
Looking at their three previous meetings, Cleveland scored 105, 130, and 110 points, respectively, against the Nets.
Obviously, if the Cavaliers score 130 points tonight, then the "under" will have a tough chance of hitting.
So, the question is whether we should expect the Cavaliers to score around 105 or 110 points or whether we should expect them to explode.
The answer is easy because the game in which they scored 130 points took place back in December.
Since then, Brooklyn's ball-screen defense has improved tremendously.
The Nets now allow the fewest points against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
Their tremendous improvement matters tonight because Cleveland relies on this play type, by a clear margin, more than any other team.
Both defenses also have a strong matchup advantage tonight because they guard the three-point line carefully, doing a great job of limiting opposing three-point attempts, which positions them very well against offenses — such as Cleveland and Brooklyn's — that rely heavily on making threes.
Brooklyn's offense will continue to struggle, especially if one of its rare talented scorers Cam Thomas remains sidelined with his hamstring injury, in this matchup. Cleveland's offense, though, won't be nearly as good as it needs to be to threaten our "under."
Best Bet: Under 228.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center
Outlook for New Orleans' Offense
The Pelicans have to rely on scoring inside the arc. They lack good shooters, ranking 23rd in three-point percentage.
They have become increasingly dependent on scoring at the basket. Currently, they attempt the ninth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
This reliance on scoring at the basket positions them poorly against a Clippers defense that is designed to limit points at the basket.
The Clippers beat Washington by 17 and, despite attempting way fewer shots, the Hornets on the road by eight because they were able to allow low point totals because they faced teams that, true to character, suffered from poor three-point shooting and from an inability to score much inside.
Center Ivica Zubac is regularly positioned near the basket given his propensity for drop coverage. He is one of the best centers in drop coverage.
Largely because of him, the Clippers are the seventh-best team at limiting field goal makes within five feet of the basket.
New Orleans Doesn't Defend Well
Los Angeles' offense will have an easy test tonight against a Pelicans defense that ranks dead-last in defensive rating.
Given this ranking, it's impossible to like the Pelicans when you don't like their offense to do well.
Point guard James Harden is playing really well both as a scorer and as a distributor.
With Kawhi Leonard likewise averaging well over 20 points in this month, the Clippers will own the mid-range. But they also feature efficient scoring at the basket, with Zubac playing a greater role on the offensive end, as evident in his strong uptick in field goal attempts and points in this month.
When the Pelicans only gave up 107 points to Memphis in their last game, they benefitted from an off day from Memphis' rookie center who is mired in an ongoing scoring slump.
But the Pelicans had regularly been giving up 125 or more points while struggling against opposing centers, with guys like Jaxson Hayes for the Lakers and Alperen Sengun for the Rockets scoring around 20 or more points.
With Zubac continuing to be a very efficient and productive scorer every game, one has to expect a strong output both from him and his offense.
The Clippers would get a boost with a strong performance from behind the arc, but they have so many major interior scoring weapons to help them blow past 120 points.
Best Bet: Clippers -6 at -115 with BetOnline
