Tuesday Night -- Texas State hosts James Madison

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
8:00 PM Eastern Kick-Off @ Jim Wacker Field in San Marcos, Texas



Texas State enters this game off 3 absolute heartbreak losses in a row:


-Lost to Arkansas State 31-30 on a missed XP at the end of the game.


-Lost to Troy 48-41 in multiple overtimes.

-Lost to Marshall 40-37 in overtime as well.



James Madison comes into this game rolling along after crushing Old Dominion in their last game 63-27.

The Dukes lone loss this year was 28-14 at Louisville.


You all know that I follow the Bobcats a lot. This is my favorite team to be consistently involved with betting-wise over the past 2.5 years. I genuinely look at all ways to make money off their games -- and that includes betting the other team plus opposing team totals. Texas State was expecting to compete for the Sun Belt title in their last year in conference -- but this past month has been just brutal with the close losses. This would be a BIG one to right the ship. The extra few days off since the Marshall game could only help to settle the team down a bit.

James Madison is a very good test. They give up only 237 yards per game, and their points allowed sit at 15.57. Last time out, Old Dominion was able to score via big plays en route to 27 first-half points! The Dukes shut them out, though in the 2nd half, and beat the brakes off the Monarchs!

Texas State is all about offense, and that is where they will have to excel to win this game. The Bobcats' pace could frustrate the Monarchs early on, but I think JMU will settle into their defense pretty well. This is not a game I am looking at Texas State team totals, at all. At least not initially. The live market will be there if needed. I'll be watching this simultaneously to the World Series. I do think JMU wins this game, but my initial leans will be on a Dukes team total, most likely full game. We'll cap this some more tomorrow and see what we can come up with.

I wanted to get the dialogue out and hopefully spark some conversation on this fascinating Tuesday Nighter in the Sun Belt!!
 
supposed to be quite windy, total down 5 points this week. think that probably hurts TXST more? JMU should be able to run often and efficiently
 
James Madison is a very good test. They give up only 237 yards per game, and their points allowed sit at 15.57. Last time out, Old Dominion was able to score via big plays en route to 27 first-half points! The Dukes shut them out, though in the 2nd half, and beat the brakes off the Monarchs!

Not sure I watch, but maybe. Is there anything else of note for either team on the 1H / 2H trends or whatever?
 
Not sure I watch, but maybe. Is there anything else of note for either team on the 1H / 2H trends or whatever?
Texas State will either go nuts in a 1h and then simmer in a 2h or struggle and then get rowdy in the later 3rd into the 4th.

More times than not, fast starters the last 2.5 years though.

I'm not expecting that tonight though.

Generally how I bet Texas State games, in order.

1. Texas State TT
2. Texas State 1h TT
3. Texas State live TTs
4. Game overs
5. Opponent TTs live
6. Texas State opponent ATS
 
yeah, damn front moving through tx tho I'm 220mi north of state.
it's 74 here, I wore a coat to dinner
 
Darn it.

I went to bet JMU TT after Texas State punt and that tuddy happened.

I let the weather get in the way of an easy one it looks like.
 
Not a chase...

With State tempo we should see 3 more JMU possessions. I see push at worst.
 
rush O (2Q > 4Q)

JMU - 5.8 > 5.4 > 4.6
TSU - 5.5 > 5.1 > 4.5

rush D

JMU - 3.1 > 1.5 > 3.0
TSU - 3.8 > 6.0 > 3.7

scoring O

JMU - 7 > 11 > 8
TSU- 7 > 6 > 11

scoring D

JMU - 6 > 3 > 2
TSU - 11 > 7 > 11


most important? ..... it's San Mar'-cuss
* not Mar-cos' ffs
 
JMU is -4.5 and 31 @ Halftime

2H TTs

JMU 18
Texas State 13

Live TTs

JMU 45.5
Texas State 31.5
 
Actually, I played this with 2 min left in the half and JMU ball.

Weird this was available but that's why we stalk.

Screenshot_20251028-220044.png


I would want 16.5 or lower although JMU should continue to score.
 
I don't mind Texas State TT overs 2h but with 2 point conversion in play I want 12.5...

Texas State o31.5 -118 LIVE
 
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Should cash the 2nd JMU bet here shortly.

Need Texas State to keep caring and no more interceptions to sweep this game.
 
Good call. B.A.R. Thanks for the info.

I liked JMU in the game, but thought it was on Wednesday and hadn't even looked at this week's line till I saw your post.

Nice to start a week with a win on Tuesday
 
Hey @B.A.R. , what are your thoughts on your Bobcats today?! I've been bullish on this Golden Eagle squad this year. Finding it interesting that Tex St seems to be a big public play.
Would love to hear your thoughts.
 
Hey @B.A.R. , what are your thoughts on your Bobcats today?! I've been bullish on this Golden Eagle squad this year. Finding it interesting that Tex St seems to be a big public play.
Would love to hear your thoughts.
I just started my weekly Texas State thread I'll post over there.
 
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