Tuesday Night Amatuer Football


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Central Florida +4.5 +101

This will not be a popular pick whatsoever. My capping will go against the grain on occasion and it has worked out pretty well this season. Plays on Rice at Houston, Arizona vs USC have ben real sweet victories this season. I feel this is in the line of those.

The simplest write-up on this game that makes best sense is by SportsNut. I read it just a minute ago in Hunt's thread and it pretty much sums it all up.

Honestly, if you really like SoPiss you gotta be kicking yourself right now on this one. This game opened PK-49. Its now 5.5 and 47. Thats a huge move indeed. These one-game cards are the ones that public usually gets destroyed on. I like having that in my corner.

UCF will have reigning Froshman of year back in Kevin Smith at RB. He was out in last weeks loss against the Bulls.

I think you will see Moffet's best performnce of the season. He played solid againt Nova but has been very erratic since. Two early picks against Bulls then fumbled late as they were driving to tie game and force OT.

Both teams played Florida. Piss scored points but that was off Turnover. They also did drive late but Stephen Reaves had several incompletions late to surrender downs.

This is a FG game IMO. CFU had 3rd largest crowd ever last time out and it should be another good one tonight. I think this is a battle and getting well over a FG is the play here.

GL fellas. I did sell a point for plus vig.

One unit
Going to play So. Miss... not impressed with CFU.

gl with it tho, don't collide with you often. I think the 5.5 point swing speaks volume for what the books are trying to do however. Perhaps they didn't expect so many people to take a road favie here... not sure what's going on with it.
I figure I am minority here...

Its all good though. Those who got Piss real early may well be happy as I am hopefully. I see this as a middle game no doubt.
CFU South MIss

Does anyone have any input on the total points? Dont know that much of these small schools. Any info. would help.

Some comments on the total oacard77 from SportsNut and Hile75 in the MNF in-game thread...

SportsNut: thinking UCF tmrw Hile75. Probably under as well

Hile75: i think my early lean is going to be the under, USM traditionally plays very good D and I dont have a lot of faith in either QB, althought Moffitt is probably slightly better.........

SportsNut: Agreed Hile just wish I had 48-49 have to look around to see what I can get..... I think I finally learned over the years that early lines are great and all but the BEST line crap. I played the over 40.5 but once I started seeing the upward movement got nervous. Waited till today and played under 45 for a middle plus some extra. The moral of the story usually it doesnt matter .

They handled them well but a big switch @ QB for SO Miss and UCF weakness seems to be pass defense. USM seems to rely on th eFrosh runner and thats uCF strength to date.

That meeting LYR concerns me cause USM whipped them but UCF also didnt lose at home LYR. I think they caught USM at the wrong time....3 straight wins for UCF getting confident tehn a dose of reality. Funny how some saw people were caught by suprise with UCF. That tells me there lines if anything were soft. So the 8.5 number in SoMiss was probably accurate rather then cheap. That tells you probably a -1 pt fav in UCF.

This year common opponent FLA.......spread difference 3 points. Tells me again this line should be closer to a PK since UCF has home field.

Unproven QB and RB as road chalk who havent done it on the road aid myplay. Not to mention as I said strength of UCF defense is stopping the run and USM offensive strength is the run...

I wanna look at the USF game more....

Just think we are getting some free points here with UCF

On a side note Hile & SportNut, I accidently deleted a few of your post from the in-game on MNF trying to copy/move those post to this thread if you notice a different post count. What you typed I was able to copy here, but not restore. Still learning this vBulletin stuff from a moderator stand point. Sorry about that guys.
bar i will be wit u, but where did it open as a pick? an why tha fuck would this game open as a pick? ufc cant do shit to stop anyone on D. im guessin it opend as a pick in vegas?
I'm with you on CFU. I like CFU to rebound this week with a hard fought victory. Too many things in CFU favor: line movement, public against, revenge, and letdown spot for S.M. Gotta have money on somebody! It's CFB on Tuesday night!!!
I am also leaning towards UCF here. I believe this will be S. Miss QB's 1st conference game (on the road no less), revenge factor and UCF's starting TB will return after suspension last week.
UCF and Under.

Good Luck everyone.
Sportsnut makes a good case in one of the threads on here, but it is all based on paper stats. I have to trust three guys I know who are season ticket holders to all Central Florida ball games. They say that the offense has been easy to stop and the defense has been atrocious in the games they have played. Also, BGS9.5, one of the guys I talked to, said that the S. Florida game was not nearly as close as the score indicated. He said S. Florida literally dominated C. Florida up and down the field all night. Did anybody watch S. Florida play at Kansas last weekend? They're horrible!! Kansas is horrible and S. Florida couldn't do anything against them!

I just think this is one of those games where common sense needs to rule our heads. Sometimes we cap too much into these games based on what the lines were last year and where they should be this year based upon power ratings. Well, hell, Central Florida's own coach, according to Phil Steele's mag, was quoted as saying that Central Florida was lucky last season by winning several close games, but were no where close to being as good as they were given credit for! After seeing the results of their first three games, I have to believe that is true.

Say what you will about S. Miss, but the fact is they beat NC State which is a hell of a lot better than Villanova! I didn't even know Villanova played football! LOL

Good health on this one . . . . . . . .
Yeah Nova dropping 19 on them... is downright pathetic. I think Nova has a D2/Instramural type football team. Anyway, I wouldn't say line movement is in the favor of UCF... every $10 dollars is bumping the line... Vegas is begging you to take the home dogg here because they can't find anyone who will. A 3 point swing is one thing... 6 is absolutely nuts.
Much like SoonerBS, the things that I heard from the guy I know who is a CF fan were just too much to ignore. While it's an approach that costs me occasionally, I've got to trust my buddies that are right there...

Good health on this one...we'll see who gets it tonite.

As a side, though, I'm not sure I could lay 5.5. I laid 3 and wished it was 2.5 but didn't want to pay. 5.5? Wow.
Hey Fondy I could care less about amount of posts and such. I am not spending my time posting worrying about that. Thanks anyway. Big Al thanks for mentioning my comments.

Here is my quick point-

Doesnt matter the sport if you play inflated favs you will lose a huge majority of the time. I said here on Sunday with NE and yesterday all day long about ATL. You need to JUSTIFY a line better then teams A stinks worse then Team B.

Figuring out what a line is simple. Forget your power rankings or what you think it should be. Just go off previous lines for teams. Its said time and time again bookmakers dont adjust quickly and when they finally do its usually an overadjustment. Lets not forget that UCF was somewhat a public play last time and so was NCST who lost to SoMiss.

Tonite's matchup you have an unproven QB who hasnt been great throwing the ball which is UCF defensive weakness right now. Its clear look at what opposing QBs did. You have a freshman RB running against what appears to be a solid run def unit. Where is the offense coming ffrom tonite...playing good defense is great but if you dont score you cant cover ROAD CHALK.

I really could care how what team looked last week vs some other opponent in some other situation. It doesnt apply to this game. Yesterday JumponBoard said he didnt like how NO OL played in GB. Well great they still won and scored 34 of 41 pts at one point. You would expect he NO OL to play better at home and it did. People make decisions based on what they see and think they know more then oddsmakers.

So I really dont care how bad UCF has looked so far. They played 1 game as far as I am concerned and did so shorthanded. Who cares about Nova and FLA is one of the best defensives around. Whatever close wins they had last year might look shaky but I think they played Memphis and Houston at home and won.

My play is based on a bad LINE pure and simple. The gravy is getting a team that has underperformed......
I am all over this one with you Big Al this is a great pick man. Central Florida should win the game SU. I am taking ML if I cant get +7 by gametime. I guess people just forgot UCF is an experienced bowl team, playing at home in a desperate situation and all. Good luck!!
Bad line? You think UCF should EVER be favored? Perhaps against Utah St. Not here, EVER. This line should be right around 4-6 points for a superior football team. Southern Miss aint bad and UCF is... plain and simple.

Also no comparison between the NFL and CFB is legitimate. CFB allows you IMO to compare and contrast teams based on past performances.. while NFL has really no trends.. and I believe teams take dives.. ATL really let it out on the field last night... right? Their receivers never even made a break on the ball or tried to get open. It was a gift to the city of NO. New England.. I agree is overrated and stinks... and I think playing a team that has underperformed in college will only bite you.
What does So Piss do if their freshman sensastion RB fletcher gets hurt? I see their other two rb just quit the team lol.

Sorry but as far as I am concerned you are incorrect.

Why should the line be 6 points what is your rationale for that? I agree it should be three.. There is a clear trail to show this line hsould be no higher then a FG IMO...starting with the fact SoMiss was ONLY -8.5 at home Last yr with a better QB. So they got beated down it's one game. Do you really believe the outcome would always be the same...itys 1 game just like SoMiss hs played 1 sound game this year.

SoMiss is superior how? cause you watched them? We played 3 games. Didnt UCF go 4-0 at home last year with the same team , making the USA Championship and playing in the Hawaii Bowl? How does this team suck? I see USM biggest edge being in the kicking game yet no one has mentioned that.

They played FLA and did what exactly. They smoked Southeastern La...impressive how? They had a nice 2nd H against NCST....and what. The WOlfpack have done anything in 2 years now. I guess you will say they beat BC. Big deal they did at home on a last minute play. When everyone was doubting NCST......I played the Wolfpack because despite BC being better they shouldnt be laying 6.5 points on the road to them.

How can you not compare in the NFL? Divisional play?? Its easy as hell to compare in the NFL......last year Denver -3 vs NE why would a fair line for NE be -7 this year? Its clear as day. Same yesterday. ATL is -5.5 @ NO last yr wins by 3 will the Saints greatly improved and actually have a home field edge why would ATL be -4.....I said this well before the games kicked the past 2 nites and few listened. I said for 3 years at Covers and I guess it falls on deaf ears. I am lose bets more because I play marginal plays to heavy not because I leave a stone unturned.

Your sipping to much juice to think ATL gave them that game. You just miss the fact ATL WR's have been useless for years now. They have nice college careers but arent sound pro's. ATL was overrated plain and simple. They dont have a passing game. I guess it was the WR's fault that Vick short hoppped them 6 or 7 times. NO beat them in every facet of the game. How's that great rushing attack of ATL??

I think people believe there opinions to much to when capping games......

Will see toniye I guess UCF +6 & ML
Good discussion both ways in here.

These Weeknight games are going to get debated to death for next few weeks. Thats what happens every year.

A lot of guys i respect on each side. That will happen.

Best of luck tonight to everyone.

Personally I think this line should be a 1-2 tops the more I think about it. Having opened at a pk shows that many thought SOPISS was underrated. Either way, I think its tough as hell to take Southern now at 6. Backers are just a bit late to the bandwagon IMO.

Best of luck to everybody. Hopefully its a 3-4 point game and the majority of us can win both ways.
Nice post sportsnut. I think the books have an overinflated line here. everyone is nuts about the win over NC St. and the NC St. subsequent victory over #20 BC last week.

I like UCF at home getting their stud TB back in the line-up. Too much chalk for a inexperienced QB to cover.
Gotta say after reading this discussion and seeing the line shoot to 6 and 6.5, UCF is looking very attractive. I saw them some last year and was especially impressed with the performance against Memphis. Seeing that most of LY's team is still intact, it's hard to believe they have played so bad this year. I do not read too much into the NCST game for SOMISS, as the NCST is losing control with Chuckie at the helm. If I can buy this up to 7 with reasonable vig, may be a play afterall.
Did anyone see the Covers article about how there was some sharp action on SoMiss? I love how its headlined sharps on SoMiss then the article says there has been 'some' sharp action coupled with a 4 to1 ration of So Miss bets. Just like there was sharp action on the Texans vs Indy and Washington...and so on. Those articles really are so false and misleading they should be sued for intent to decieve or something.

There 4 to 1 action on the game but its that small sharp action on SoMiss that's moving it. Yeah sure! I believe that! problem is some newbie does.

At least Shawn Torrey a so-called Covers expert has gained my respect. He simply says anytime you see such a move and the public is 'buying' into a road fav you have to be weary. Thats actually very truthful , accurate and correct. Which ahs been my point that the betting public is buying into this bad number!

I have said all I can. Playing UCF +6 or where it runs up to and ML +225 for some. Also like Under 25.5 So Miss team total ........

Oh man, I was specifically coming in this thread to once again thank my man Big Al for giving me a winner (not that I simply tail, but I respect your insight, you are a solid capper) and I had forgot since reading this last night that you sold points...sorry man....but thanks for heading me in the right direction....mucho looking forward to your NBA insight for another season
Sorry you didn't get the late line on this one BAR. UCF should have easily won it SU.
Great discussion. Made some dough on an entertainment play due to some solid capping by this thread's participants. I hope the vast majority of the folks on here got their number and middled this 'ho.
Thanks Willie..its almost that time.

smo1a...it wasn't too bad..my local ghave me a 7 so I played it again and had an under for a quarter unit so I made out with an 1/8 of a unit...lol...either way....it was a learning experience.

texasfight...thatsa what the sites all about. Thanks for the post.

You may be right. I just figured given the stats of UCF... and how they have performed this year... that they had zero chance of putting up enough points to keep up with S Piss. I do think however that field favored UCF big time and nullified S Miss' speed. Plus S Miss dropped 100+ yards of completions. However, they should have lost given all those circumstances.

Maybe I also should not have said comparing in the NFL doesn't work... but momentum and recent play trends... you rarely see a team run off 3,4,5 wins ATS just because they're playing great and really laying it on opponents.

I will tell you this... Atlanta though did NOT show up and will finish ahead of the Saints. This story book ending... came to a close Monday night.
Agreed Inspekdah. I never said NO was better I just thought ATL wasnt 4 better on NO home field. I think No can go 9-7 this year and ATl will win 10 or 11 but they are not an elite team IMO. its all about discussing the angles. I dont really think ATL gave them that game though. You dont think Dunn wanted play well and there seemed to be a lot of jawing back and forth...I remember Hall running hsi mouth. I think ATL came to play they just have to work on throwing the ball.

Same with So Miss is the better team but marginally...cause they play mistake free football. lGL bro!
Agree to agree... plus my capping skills get skewed once I have a play locked in and then I see valid arguments for the other side. Not going to hide that fact... I am probably covering up my doubt in the play...

If I can get enough points and the SUNJ keep getting pounded.. perhaps I'll try a middle.