Tuesday NBA




S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Short card:

Lakers travel to Chicago

Somewhat odd spot of LAL off consecutive massive comebacks and OT games while Bulls are OT nailbiter in Atlanta on Saturday. The Lakers could be flat..

Bulls are 10-2 at home with both losses to WESTERN CONF teams Minny and Sacramento. On that ridiculous yearly circus trip they dropped the first 5 legs of the trip all to WESTERN CONF squads...do you see a reoccuring theme.?? How bout 0-7 SU vs the West and 1-6 ATS..

The series has seen 6 straight UNDERS. While LAL has played 7 straight Overs

....Lakers are 21-9-2 ATS in their last 32 vs. Eastern Conference
<LI class=morecool>Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.<LI class=morecool>Under is 13-5 in Bulls last 18 vs. NBA Pacific
They met on 11/19 when LA won 82-72.So its revenge but wonder if the line is not alittle inflated..

Lean: Under 203 -110 & Lakers +5

Toronto @ Phoenix

the more I look at this game the more confused I become..its alot of points to lay and I almost would never do so. Just unsure how Raps follow up the Warriors game...

Tends to be a low scoring game in Phoenix and Suns now have 5 straight UNDERS and Tor snapped 7 straight Unders on Sunday. My response is that Tor showed they can run with GS so why not here??

Raps are 2-3 SU in PHO but 5-0 ATS!!!

Suns are 0-3ATS laying 11 or 12 this season but covered once as -10.5...so this is there biggest line which generally means over inflated...

.
<LI class=more>Raptors are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. <LI class=more>Raptors are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. <LI class=more>Raptors are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater.<LI class=more>Suns are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. <LI class=more>Suns are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Suns are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. <LI class=more>Suns are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games playing on 2 days rest. <LI class=morecool>Suns are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. <LI class=morecool>Suns are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater.
Lean: Raptors +13.5

Strongest leans are Under Chicago and raptors....
 
Really like the over in the phx/tor gm but gonna see how the line moves...

by the way nice write up sportsnut!

:cheers:
 
My read on Toronto is take some at 13.5 but wait for halftime for at least part of the bet. Suns are showmen and Toronto just spanked GS. They will come after them initally but Suns are not intending to let their streak die in Denver and like their ex GM. Just see Toronto doing well second half here. Lakers game needs more thought. GL
 
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Is this the Tuesday NBA Discussion thread?

I agree on the LAL/Chi Under, but would lay the 5 with Chicago. I just think they go hand in hand. Without the inside presence of Odom, I think the Bulls will have a major advantage here. I originally thought the line should be 6.5

No Bosh or Calderon for Raps, but as we know the Suns least scored quarter is the 4th and depending on how high this line rises, could leave the backdoor wide open.

Keep the discussion rollin' :shake:
 
for lal/chi game, i wonder if kobe will explode again and this game goes to OVER...again!
 
Had a question. I don't know if its just me but it seems like we are having a rash of overs as of late. match ups were the the stats and trends point to an under the game is going way over the total. Right now if you do not have a great angle on both teams betting an under is a suicide bet. just wanted your imput if you noticed anything. enjoy your writeups and gl tommorow.

What I was thinking was that the refs were calling more fouls a quarter which put teams in the bonus sooner which is causing these 65 point quarters no one is expecting. The books are not adjusting the totals because we have not adjusted yet.
 
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<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=4>Recent Meetings</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b width="12%">Date</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Home/Away</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Line</TD><TD class=datahl2b>O/U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/19/06</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 82 - CHI 72</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL -3</TD><TD class=datacell>U 195.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>12/9/05</TD><TD class=datacell>CHI 80 - LAL 93</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 1.0</TD><TD class=datacell>U 194.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/20/05</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 93 - CHI 96</TD><TD class=datacell>CHI 5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>U 190</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>12/1/04</TD><TD class=datacell>CHI 92 - LAL 84</TD><TD class=datacell>CHI 5.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 194</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/21/04</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 102 - CHI 93</TD><TD class=datacell>CHI 12.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 199</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>3/13/04</TD><TD class=datacell>CHI 81 - LAL 88</TD><TD class=datacell>CHI 9</TD><TD class=datacell>U 192.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/21/03</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 101 - CHI 94</TD><TD class=datacell>CHI 13.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 194.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>3/11/03</TD><TD class=datacell>CHI 116 - LAL 99</TD><TD class=datacell>CHI 8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 198.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/22/02</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 86 - CHI 73</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL -11</TD><TD class=datacell>U 194.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>2/6/02</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 89 - CHI 97</TD><TD class=datacell>CHI 14.0</TD><TD class=datacell>U 189</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
6 straight unders overall the last 10 meetings 9 went easily under 202.5
 
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I watch a lot of Lakers games and Radmonovich is starting to find his stroke after dealing with a finger injury in Nov. He's not the all-around player like Odom but he can easily provide the points lost from Odom being hurt.
 
Sport,
first post but just wanted to say thanks for the insights. I am a newbie here and was over at the other site!!! I enjoy all the thoughts and I love this sight. Look forward to banging thoughts, stats and trends with all you fine people.
 
I do not enjoy playing any type of UNDER play.
Been burned too many times I suppose.
An OVER play can't get moosed once it goes OVER.

With that said.....The UNDER in Chicago looks like the play of the day.
Still scratching my head trying to figure where the linesmaker got this #.
Hate not seeing what they see. The only thing that makes sense is the Brand Name's of the "Lakers @ Bulls".
Too much firepower is missing especially on the inside for a Lakers road team.

Very tempted on Chi -5, but for a guy who does not play any Unders,
I like the UNDER.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Can't see Nash & Suns letting up on this one and being stopped but still shy about laying that many points after getting my ass kicked a few nights ago with the Spurs.
I'd probably lean to the earlier part(s) of the game on the Suns;
1Q & 1H
 
Definitely see a back door cover in phoenix. The total for the Suns and Lakers does indeed seem very fishy. I Know it's early, but 78% of the public is on the over for the Lakers and Bulls.
 
Bulls line movin up although higher % on lakers hmmm does this mean bulls the play
 
Supersav ~ I see at all that stuff but you should never make a play cause of something like that. Its a guess and in the long run how many times can you guess right?? Those sites are all bullshit & inaccurate. Concentrate on where the lines should be and it will all make sense after awhile. We all see line moves that scare us at times . Here I think your dealing with an unknown in LAL and thats the true value of LAL without Odom...BOL

Xpress - Yeah this card is not so interesting I migt have to get involved in CBB today..GL

Driver - Thanks bro , BOL

smola- As I was saying I dont buy those percentages so much. Look at like this what do you the average person / bettor is going to play after a game sees 300 pts..? You dont a site to tell you that...I thought the total should have been closer to 205 so its only where it should have been IMO...I am justwaiting those games out ....working all the angles before I dive in...GL

CenTex - I think the totally is highly derived from the recent Lakers games more then anything...look at the over run they are on...I am still not biting yet want to look at it further..simply based on the Bulls numbers vs Western Conf teams and the series history an under looks good. However you never want to be fading anything gaing steam such as teh LAL over run...so still strongly lean that way but working on it..GL

Pepsiman - Welcome bro. Glad to have you here and do look forward to future discussions...GL

Mr21 - From the boxscores it seems that way( I havent watched the games) and that is something holding me back to a degree...GL

cakeoff - Yeah , something that peaked my interest...especially since thsi years meeting was 82 -72..GL

Roy29 - Its a great point actually...Unders have been suicide recently. Its really hard for me to watch games...if I am at a bar its kind of obvious why and if I am home I usually looking at other matchups or something. So I cant say if they are calling looser , ticky tac fouls but sure seems that way...and your right the only UNDERS I will get involved in are ones that seem to be way off....GL

3gamblers- Well Kobe seems to go off in the 2nd Half's....so we shall see thats what makes 1st Quarter Unders for LAL attractive...and thank Tuck321 for that info! GL

Austin- I always interested in people thoughts...might not be a discussion thread but hell thats why I start a thread to discuss the games. So feel free...

Thats a good point about Chi....I lean LAL cause of the Bulls struggles vs the West. However that was a stumbling point for me....what should this line be ?? Probably would have expected 4 or 4.5 with Odom so I would have to think w.o him 6 is more accurate...So I am gonna sit tight on this for now...As for Tor / Pho I cant see how this goes higher...Raps off a meaningful win at home versus Sunday will get peeps attention...I just wonder how Raps can keep up on the road..tough call really not liking this two games much...GL

Good Luck ...Young Rog , DJ Fadeaway , tuck and CrazyBettor!


Will be back in a bit to update what I am thinking...
 
Those sites are all bullshit & inaccurate.
Click to expand...

I know this can cause a huge debate, but can anyone prove that it is accurate or inaccurate. I like to become aware of line movement for the sake of it. I know this topic can cause a huge controversy, but even BAR agrees with the line movement this time of year as he calls it trap season. I think everyone picks games a different way and as long as we are in the black at the end, I guess thats all that matters.

:shake:
 
Its inaccurate simply cause on sample size alone...I think they get info from 5 books and dont have any flow from Vegas or the major online books...So how could it be accurate....its like polling the state of NY and using the results to represent the whole country...

There are no such things as traps just people who dont know where lines should be IMHO. Isnt every line a trap then...?? Everytime someone screams trap I seem to be able to 'prove' that line...so while I respect BAR highly I dont agree...DEC might be a harder month cause of the more intangibles thing we cant cap...you have holidays lot of traveling around...focus issues.. , teams are starting to get in the middle of there schedule...who knows really....to me each day is a new day with a new challenge...and new set of situations...

We all have opinions...some have said the NFL is tougher this year...I dont see why...but as said each day is a new challenge...DEC has been great to me probably came close to a +100 unit span over the past 10 days...

That sound like me patting myself on the back but I really other then linesmakers having a feel for the teams now why it would be harder...while the linesmakers have a feel after 25 -30 games hopefully I /We do to...

The public losses generally cause it place bets and doesnt know what a line should be. I talked about this here how many people will say I like such and such team to win and tehy are only -3 so that seems fair....where as I would say maybe so and so should win but the game should be a PK and I will gladly take the gravy points...simple point is no what the line should be and you go from there...you will be able to understand the move rather then just guess...doesnt every line move in some direction...

Just my response...take it FWIW...
 
appreciate the insight to your methods/reasoning SN - very helpful for people like myself just getting their feet wet in sports betting
 
Of course you bet the line your favor, but if your referring to sportsinsights they collect from about 12 books. There graphs show 5 books and what their current lines are.
 
Austin - can you trust the numbers that the books are giving SI?

Why would it be in their interest to divulge betting percentages? Maybe to garner more interest and wagers on the games?
 
mr21 said:
Austin - can you trust the numbers that the books are giving SI?

Why would it be in their interest to divulge betting percentages? Maybe to garner more interest and wagers on the games?
Click to expand...

I knew this would spark something. I never stated my case for either side. Like I said I am aware of line movement. I was just saying for those who claim it is false do you have proof that it is false? Same goes for those who think it is accurate, do you have any proof that it is accurate. We take it for what we take it. Somethink its a bogus scam to make money from bettors who like systems. Some actually believe in it. I remember my first year betting NCAA Hoops, I strictly faded on reverse line moves....had some 13 game win streaks, had a 11 game losing streak. All in all over 200 games I hit 54%. I bet small and just used it as a learning process. Being my second year into wagering on sports I think I have come to the conclusion that even when the lines move in reverse of the "percentages" its because the market is adjusting to what the actual line should be. I remember reading an aticle on this subject that just reinstated this theory.
 
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I would say this I am not saying that its false persay buts inaccurate IMO. Even at 12 books how does that fully represent the market...to me books are essentially marketmarkers...while you can see public percentages you cant see actually money which is really balance books. Like Vanzack said there are alot people out there with money to burn who can moves lines.

Also you forgetting that books while balancing are also including teaser and parlay money in how they adjust there spreads..Thats why I am saying its juts not a cut and dry picture...that you will never continjously get the TRUE picture from just looking at SI...

I believe books open up to these sites and theories cause it helps then balance there action...if they have alot of money on one side...fade the public...and help take away our risk...

I think it comes to this...the public loses in everything....investing , gambling , real estate you name it...cause they dont what the true value of things are...the misconception lies in this...there are 2 bettors a square and a sharp...neither is a secret society but sort of a way the book would view you...everyone is part of the betting public...the books get paid the sameway whether its sharp money or square money... its not public vs sharp..like may seem to think...

All a sharp is a bettor whose action is respected by the book. A square is simply the bettor who will bet mainly favs and overs and take what always appears easy...sharps lose bets and squares loses bets.....like anything else people wjho lose look for magical answers there are none...winning today guarnatees nothing tmrw...

So as you said its all a balancing act by the books to even out there risk...whats a good day for a book keep 3 % of its handle...they want volume...now of course books would rather have the heavy money on bad lines....public cant identify bad lines and thats why it seems like the public always loses...cause the come out of the woodworks for the high proile games and get burned.....
 
gotta like nut for his time and effort here and his intelligent write-ups and insight. you're the man. keep it up dude.
 
I agree with what your saying, but do you have proof?

I am by no means a fade the public bettor. As I stated earlier I used to buy into this method but learned you bet the line accordingly. Perception is key when doing so. Sometimes books will throw out inflated lines and its our job as bettors to understand why the line is where it is at and bet it accordingly.
 
Do I need proof...? Are the CEO's of online books going to say we decided its good business to release our most lopsided action to draw in opposite action...and tap into this fade the public craze?

I do know that its fact that Betting pcts dont move lines. I do know that its impossible to figure out how much teaser & parlay money is on a game without working for a book...so I cant conclude factual either way why a line is moving... I do Know that Pinnacle Sports redily admits to jacking certain lines up that are in the 7.5 range to 9.5 to keep there parlay / teaser action balanced and to protect themselves..

I dont know what you need proof of...to me its commonsense...and I understand your trying to get a defintive answer but there just is none. Like you said the goal is exploiting bad lines...that alone will make you successful...its the same the stock market...at times based on perception does the market beat up stocks for no fundamental reason and make them cheap?? Didnt that happen with the Colts last nite? Does the stock market overprice stocks based on perception...of course..just like teams are overvalued in certain situations..

I dont think anyone can give you a definitive answer other then use your best judgement......
 
ontime23 said:
sport,

I agree with all don't know if i'll play though
Click to expand...

Yeah..basically thinking that I will playthe Under 205 and maybe Raps real small...Lakers played one road game @ DAllas w/o Odom and didnt look very good...I can make a case for this line being as high as 6.5 and as low 4.5...so really no value either way and I should then stay away...
 
esco said:
gotta like nut for his time and effort here and his intelligent write-ups and insight. you're the man. keep it up dude.
Click to expand...

Thanks esco....Austin is making solid points and he is not really pro or con just stating his beliefs and looking for a defintive answer on an interesting topic...I dont think he can get one and I know I cannot give him one...I sure can run my mouth and give my opinion though....GL
 
Plays -

Bulls -1.5 -118 1st Q (Small)L -1.18
Bulls -3 -110 Half (Small) -1.10

Add:

Under 100-110 LAL (Medium) Win +2.00
Under 52 -110 1st Q (Small) W +1.00

2nd H
Under 103 +103 Chi (Medium) Win +2.06

Lean: Under 52 1st Q , Under 205.5 -103 , Under 100 LAL -110

Why did I change gears...I am not sold on this game either way with solid reasons for both. As I said this could go either way with a range of 4.5 to 6.5 IMO being fair. What I have noticed is that w/o Odom the past 3 games LAL has allowed 60 % ,47% ,and 51 %...the lowest pct was vs Houston and that slipped under 50% because of the OT session. So really this is whats holding me up as far as the TOTAL 205.5 goes...I have thought about Under 100 LAL instead...

Bulls @ home are nearly +6 for the 1st Q while LAL is -3...remember it seems Kobe stays uninvolved for the 1st Q.

Of 12 home games only recently has Chi allowed a team to top 94 pts as the Bucks scored 111... On 2 days rest the Bulls are 5-1 over while LA is is 12-6 over on 1 days rest....the real lack of defense lately has me concerned...and thinking.....

Raptors +13.5 -110 (Medium) {Pending}ML +950 (value) L -0.25

Really this is simply fading the line...Raps appear to becoming balanced and getting contributions from everyone...Suns have 2 days off and play in Denver tmrw...I just dont like Suns as big chalk 1-2ATS -10 or better and Toronto historically a great dog...

The Raptors have performed well in Phoenix and hopefully that continues... Sticking with my original thoughts....
 
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NCAAB ...had a bunch of plays I liked never got around to...line UNC 1st H and Ohio State Under ...

Iona ML -112 (Large)

Gaels look alot worse then they are due to the fact Ruland gave them a brutal schedule...its actually home game #1 here...Missed the better number but should be at least -3 anyway...

Slow start figured fisher was playing here...down 18-6 7 minutes in

Duke -7 2nd H -120 (Medium)
Marist -4 0117 (Medium)
Iona -4 -108 (Medium)
 
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Thanks 3!!!! GL

Add:

Under 100-110 LAL (Medium)
Under 52 -110 1st Q (Small)

Going to wait till half on the total itself maybe get some value..??
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Nice total hits, Nut
Click to expand...

Bet..nah , I fucked myself up some...

Had Lakers and the Under my brain and for someone continually talked myself out of it......

Under 103 +103 Chi 2nd H (Medium)

This will Lose trust me I did everything possible to overthink the NBA!
 
Well, I had a decent lean on CHC, but its not like theyve played well against the West anywhere this season, so that and the fact I saw a less than full-on effort by LA contributed to me taking the Under over taking CHC ATS.
I have an aversion to playing sides & totals in the same game - you split, it hurts almost more than if you played 1 and lost.
 
let's hope toronto gets going, lucky to be down only 9 with no fg's for them for a 5-6 minute stretch there, they might have ended the half actually in that stretch

another brutal ml loss on semo +291 for me, last second shot for samford :hairout:
 
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