Tuesday I'm baaaaack Discussion

GWarner27

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
tuck can hardly handle his excitement...

leans from the BOL open:
PHI +180
MIL u7.5 -115
ATL +220
HOU o8.5 -120
TEX +150
CHW +150
SEA +105
DET -115
SD +135


on the radar:
WAS -110
PHI u7 -110
HOU +110
MIN +115
 
We need to keep track of Degrom's catcher.
With d'Arnaud he has a .93 ERA. With the other one .372.
4 days rest is his best with a 1.39 ERA
Williams on 4 2-4 6.50 ERA 5 or 6 and he is playable on short samples
He is much better with Ruiz catching as with the other catcher his ERA jumps to 6.39
 
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Regarding Feldman---this is a no luck season so far. With this ump on a 9.2 inning sample he has an ERA of 12.10 that may be deceptive;
Last year in relief he faced him for 1.2 innings 0 runs but gave up a hit and 2 walks. His splits on 4 days and night are fairly terrible and have flip floped from last year where he liked 4 and the night. Its impossible to like him to start with here.
He Might have a chance with Castro catching. With Conger he has a 7.13 ERA on 17.2 innings
Tillman on a short sample of 11 innings has a 9.82 ETA on 4 and a 6.85 night ERA this season. Will look more at game logs to help me see his direction.
 
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Pelfrey is 0-3 with a ERA of 6.60 with the ump. His splits are fine this year. Not really understanding the spread here. Minn 14-7 at night Twins at home vs righties 7-4 this season. Ump tolerant of home dogs. Minn 15-6 at home. Think you take the money odds and chance the ref.
Bet much better with Suzuki catching.
 
Pretty hard to not start off liking the Cardinals tomorrow.
I believe they went to 14-2 at home vs right handers at home Monday and Bradley's current form stinks.
In fairness, Bradley's last game may be due to a new catcher Pacheco who will likely not be used today.
 
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updated leans:PHI +183: Kulpa
MIL u7.5 -115: Cuzzi
ATL +229: DeMuth
HOU o9 -105: Marquez
TEX +145: Tumpane
CHW +140: Emmel
SEA +108: Gorman
DET -118: Kellogg
SD +159: T. Barrett
MIA +136: Rackley


on the radar:
WAS -110: DiMuro
PHI u7.5 -120: Kulpa
HOU +105: Marquez
MIN +120: L. Barrett
 
tuck321 said:
Pretty hard to not start off liking the Cardinals tomorrow.
I believe they went to 14-2 at home vs right handers at home Monday and Bradley's current form stinks.
In fairness, Bradley's last game may be due to a new catcher Pacheco who will likely not be used today.
Click to expand...
he's also adjusting to being struck with a ball to his head, so his last two starts make sense, he wasn'THAT much better but he did last longer and after the first inning spotting3/4 runs he sort of settled down...probably a couple of more starts to get back into a habit again.
 
tuck321 said:
We need to keep track of Degrom's catcher.
With d'Arnaud he has a .93 ERA. With the other one .372.
4 days rest is his best with a 1.39 ERA
Williams on 4 2-4 6.50 ERA 5 or 6 and he is playable on short samples
He is much better with Ruiz catching as with the other catcher his ERA jumps to 6.39
Click to expand...

d'Arnaud is still on the DL i believe, so it's either the light-hitting Recker or the contact-hitting prospect Plawecki who should probably be in AAA...

I remembered big home/road splits for deGrom
 
GWarner27 said:
d'Arnaud is still on the DL i believe, so it's either the light-hitting Recker or the contact-hitting prospect Plawecki who should probably be in AAA...

I remembered big home/road splits for deGrom
Click to expand...
June 1 is the target for Travis....as well as Lucroy
 
tuck321 said:
Regarding Feldman---this is a no luck season so far. With this ump on a 9.2 inning sample he has an ERA of 12.10 that may be deceptive;
Last year in relief he faced him for 1.2 innings 0 runs but gave up a hit and 2 walks. His splits on 4 days and night are fairly terrible and have flip floped from last year where he liked 4 and the night. Its impossible to like him to start with here.
He Might have a chance with Castro catching. With Conger he has a 7.13 ERA on 17.2 innings
Tillman on a short sample of 11 innings has a 9.82 ETA on 4 and a 6.85 night ERA this season. Will look more at game logs to help me see his direction.
Click to expand...

sad that the oddsmakers have caught on that Tillman only has a fastball this season and hearing those Feldman numbers don't make me want to bite at a small price below what I made it
 
Price with Kellog 2.01 ERA but some trouble at the site and Oakland in flames right now.
 
GWarner27 said:
sad that the oddsmakers have caught on that Tillman only has a fastball this season and hearing those Feldman numbers don't make me want to bite at a small price below what I made it
Click to expand...
over is what I played and over is what i'll stick to
 
Especially first half. Clay is fairly reasonable this season on 4 days rest but at night 0-4 with a 5.88 ERA based on 33.2 innings. This number is weird in Minn.
 
Maybe it's a trap, but I'm going to keep riding the Minnesota money train until it derails. I can't see a reason for them to be a home dog to Buchholz here with the way they're swinging the bats.
 
tuck321 said:
Especially first half. Clay is fairly reasonable this season on 4 days rest but at night 0-4 with a 5.88 ERA based on 33.2 innings. This number is weird in Minn.
Click to expand...
pretty hefty price on someone like Clay who has been anything but consistent.
 
TRoe15 said:
Maybe it's a trap, but I'm going to keep riding the Minnesota money train until it derails. I can't see a reason for them to be a home dog to Buchholz here with the way they're swinging the bats.
Click to expand...

It's an impressive run and they took out some good pitchers like liriano, sale along the way but all their wins in the current stretch were against lefties minus Joe Kelly yesterday...not that I have a horse in this race just interesting to see how well they do against lefties this season
 
played Mariners/Rays under 7 (-106), Red Sox/Twins over 8 (-115)

also like Giants/Brewers under 7' (need roof closed, so waiting for status there) and Pads/Halos over 8
 
eying Royals ML +102. they have to be champing at the bit to play again after yesterday, and play well off a loss (20-7), as road dog (15-5), on road vs RHP (17-7). Yanks just 2-5 off win, 1-4 at home vs LHP. and for days-of-the-week enthusiasts, Royals 5-0 on Tuesdays this season (6-0 generally) vs Yanks 3-3 (3-10 generally, apparently lost L7 Tuesdays of 2014).

Vargas good numbers vs Yanks he's likely to see other than Headley (assuming Beltran not well enough to return to lineup):

NEW YORK YANKEES CAREER STATISTICS VS. JASON VARGAS
BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
Carlos Beltran 7 3 0 0 1 3 2 0 .429 .556 .857 1.413
Stephen Drew 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .111 .111 .111 .222
Jacoby Ellsbury 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .200 .200 .200 .400
Brett Gardner 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 .200 .200 .200 .400
Chase Headley 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 .429 .429 .429 .857
Brian McCann 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Gregorio Petit 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000
Alex Rodriguez 8 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 .000 .200 .000 .200
Brendan Ryan 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Mark Teixeira 17 4 1 0 1 3 0 0 .235 .235 .471 .706
Chris Young 11 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 .182 .250 .273 .523
Totals 80 17 2 0 2 7 5 10 .213 .259 .313 .571
 
Last two seasons, Yankees have played 7 games after scoring 10+ runs their previous game. Results: Yanks 2-5 SU, averaging 2.57 runs vs opp 5.71
 
Jose Urena will be recalled from Triple-A New Orleans to make his first major league start against the Pirates on Tuesday.
Urena, 23, has been up to the majors for two relief appearances but this will be his first start. The right-hander has posted a 1.21 ERA and 22/12 K/BB ratio over 37 1/3 innings for New Orleans this season. Urena could get a few starts with the Marlins dealing with multiple injuries in their rotation. May 25 - 10:07 PM
Source: Clark Spencer on Twitter
 
Mets -1
Jerome Williams struggles in general and even more so on the road. Auto Fade.

Angels -1
Heartbreaking loss for SD, Despigne is bad away from Petco.


+5.79 units this season all posted on twitter. I feel June will be a good month. Treading water all May.
 
Today and tomorrow are good days for the Angels. Shoemakers home record is something of a problem with a 9.45 home ERA
 
Shoemaker usually doesn't pitch two bad games in a row. I'll bet he pitches a gem tonight
 
For anyone who like to play the score in first inning wagers, this season Despaigne 5-0, Shoemaker 6-2 to the YES on run scoring in first inning. Pads/Halos run scoring in 1st inning is +100 at 5D.
 
Wandy on 6 this season 0-2 6 ERA based on 15 innings this season a 9.64 ERA facing Cleveland on a 4.2 sample
 
Timh said:
Jose Urena will be recalled from Triple-A New Orleans to make his first major league start against the Pirates on Tuesday.
Urena, 23, has been up to the majors for two relief appearances but this will be his first start. The right-hander has posted a 1.21 ERA and 22/12 K/BB ratio over 37 1/3 innings for New Orleans this season. Urena could get a few starts with the Marlins dealing with multiple injuries in their rotation. May 25 - 10:07 PM
Source: Clark Spencer on Twitter
Click to expand...

Locke has been terrible, but this kids getting a ton of respect
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Last two seasons, Yankees have played 7 games after scoring 10+ runs their previous game. Results: Yanks 2-5 SU, averaging 2.57 runs vs opp 5.71
Click to expand...
Think this be closer to long streak broken. have no intention of betting on this game GL
 
just getting around to looking at the card right now... very late today

St louis is batting .362 in 5 tuesday games..... bradley has been struggling since being hit in the face... any reason not to take cards tt over?
 
updated leans:
PHI +168/u7: Kulpa
MIL u7.5: Cuzzi
ATL +240: DeMuth
HOU o8.5: Marquez
TEX +150: Tumpane
CHW +146: Emmel
SEA +105: Gorman
SD +159: T. Barrett
MIN +140: L. Barrett
WAS +101: DiMuro

on the radar:
HOU +103: Marquez
 
I'll be at the Dodgers game tonight. They historically win 66% of the time I am present at the game.

So far this season they are 3-1. 4-1 after tonight cause Kershaw is going to put on a show!
 
Gabe said:
I'll be at the Dodgers game tonight. They historically win 66% of the time I am present at the game.

So far this season they are 3-1. 4-1 after tonight cause Kershaw is going to put on a show!
Click to expand...
Enjoy the game :cheers3:
 
Gabe said:
thanks.

gwarner is the type of guy that doesn't say thank you when someone leaves the door open for him.

Typical White privilege
Click to expand...

lol :shake:

-deGrom is great at home, but I'm looking to fade the Mets at every opportunity. Sucks the price got hammered down and I'm really not sure I want to back Jerome Williams
-over park, but Bum seems to have worked out his kinks and Garza should do better than he has with Cuzzi helping him out. SF bullpen is always good, don't mind Broxton-KRod if Garza can hang in there. Giants hit so well on the road though...
-Teheran can't get this price, ever
-hate how the Astros K and the Orioles lineup is nothing like it was last year, but Tillman is fastball only and if Feldman gets squeezed he can't be effective
-TEX playing great ball and Wandy has been killing it as a big dog. CLE starting a ton of sluggers, could be a K frenzy and Santana still has some consistency to work on
-Danks is great or terrible, tough matchup playing TOR but Dickey is on my fade list and the ChiSox pen is much better
-Happ has been so good and everyone knows i love him, but probably too cheap for me to take on the road
-Despaigne unseen by LAA, tricky guy so that could be really tough on a team who isn't as good as they get priced in a different league. SD just can't hit right now though
-Why stop fading Buchholz when he gets these numbers? Don't care that his metrics suggest he's been really unlucky, Farrell is losing it with the ridiculous batting order flips
-Zimmermann usually starts slow, should be on tonight. Not enough to play though
 
quick thoughts on early games....scrambling...

nats/cubs....line shift to cubs....interesting...can't see it myself....pass

mia/pitt...new pitcher...poor trends on locke....pass

philly/mets....fade williams...mets ml par

col/cinn....lorenzen not bad....cinn ml par

stl/mil....maybe small on garza

atl/lad....not sure kershaw should be 260 to anyone never mind teheran....atl

hou/balt...which tillman will we get...i suspect hou bats get to him....hou and maybe some over

tex/cleve....cleve owns tex in cleve....cleve ml par

kc/yanks....big line shift to kc.....vargas 0-4 vs nyy....2-5 team....probable pass

cws/tor....two suspect pitchers....at least one lineup that can hit....over

seatt/tb...colome really struggling...happ not bad....seatt dog money tempting

sox/minn....bucholtz pitches into the 8th recently and has steadily improved....minn will come back to earth soon...but troe on minn and he's hot

det/oak....oak W3....price in a big ballpark....under

sd/laa....despaigne not quite right...hurt?...laa playing as well as they will....shoe hot and cold....tough call but lean laa in a ml par

good luck to all
 
Despaigne came into last start needing to correct some shit in a major way. He fucked up and allowed a homer in the first inning and it looked like big trouble, but he settled down and pitched five scoreless after that.
 
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