Tuesday Discussion Thread

2daBank said:
Whomever it was and I’m sorry if I was wrong but I’d still like a scouting report on reds pitcher 2marro!!
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It’s fucking @Marsski that usually talks reds with me!! I knew I would remember. Sorry bout that bro. I’ve already did a quick cap on reds pitcher now and feel like he kinda sucks. Is that to general? Am I missing something with a 27 year old who hasn’t shown anything impressive? It’s possible he did a cycle this offseason and a different guy now!
 
Does wesneski have enough talent/stuff for Houston to turn him into something better than he been? I have no clue but maybe? I do know Astros struggled last year when Tucker was hurt so they trade him and let bregs walk, apparently they not into spending the money of some teams. I still think at some point Walker will prob hit behind Yordan but he prob feeling some pressure and the lineup just doesn’t look as deep. Historically Webb has been better as the season goes on my only issue w sf or some kind of under here.
 
Since when can Carson Kelly hit? We pay for Contreras who not even catching and cubs get the guy cards said was yadi’s heir 5 years ago. Thanks for overstaying your welcome yadi, I’m pretty sure we got some crappy reliever for Kelly who had more hits last night than Contreras has all year!!

Omg I just heard profar statement, mfer you know damn well you juiced! Just own it don’t tell me you never put anything in your body blah blah blah. It’s pretty tough to stick that big needle in ya and not know you doing it! I never accidentally juiced, although I like a good cycle as much the next guy!
 
2daBank said:
It’s fucking @Marsski that usually talks reds with me!! I knew I would remember. Sorry bout that bro. I’ve already did a quick cap on reds pitcher now and feel like he kinda sucks. Is that to general? Am I missing something with a 27 year old who hasn’t shown anything impressive? It’s possible he did a cycle this offseason and a different guy now!
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He’s been mostly a reliever in the minors. They have brought him up the last few years for a spot start or for long relief outta the pen. I couldn’t really bet the Reds w him going.
 
Marsski said:
He’s been mostly a reliever in the minors. They have brought him up the last few years for a spot start or for long relief outta the pen. I couldn’t really bet the Reds w him going.
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I agree I think today a way more accurate price than yesterday. I found it so odd singer making his debut against some bum was plus money yesterday! I actually wonder if Eovaldi cheap but I think the price is a lot closer to accurate today. If anything I’d prob look at a ranger tt or something but I’ll prob pass, unless it happen to come down, if I could get rangers for -120ish I’d prob jump on it.

Singer was a great get for ya’ll, hopefully he can lead the young kids plus he gives ya a guy who you can pretty much count on to go out every 5th day and give ya a chance. Now that I say this he prob get hurt, lol.
 
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Think I heard last night was the 1st time de la Cruz used one them “torpedo” bats, he mashed, said he picked it up and it felt good: we see how it goes today against a guy that throws 5 pitches in any count that move every which way!
 
can’t find a simple over/under on pitcher walks, can use in the sgp builder and putting senga at 2+ walks seems priced bout like his number 1.5? If so I’d grab the over 1.5 or 2+ walks.
 
Other than yelich it a pretty limited sample size but Lorenzen has owned these milw hitters and let’s be real here, it not just the bad start kc is a better team than milw, they have a proven if not spectacular pitcher going while milw throwing a 26 year old rookie making his 1st start, price doesn’t make much sense to me unless we are once again pricing off jerseys and recent years! I feel like kc should prob be -125 or so.
 
2daBank said:
Man, senga my guy and all, pretty sure he started his mlb career vs fish last year and I cashed a few k props against them as he just had that ghost splitter disappearing on marlins hitters! But he hasn’t pitched in 11-12 days, control is always the issue for him, not sure I’m trusting the control while he hasn’t pitched in so long! Guess we see where they put his walks and k’s but that price on alcontera is tempting, just 1st thoughts I gotta go back and see how Sandy pitches looked in his 1st start.
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sANDY WAS VERY DOMINATE I HIS 1ST START, GRANTED IT WAS THE PIRATES. BALL HAD GREAT MOVEMENT AND FASTBALL WAS LIVE
 
2daBank said:
Other than yelich it a pretty limited sample size but Lorenzen has owned these milw hitters and let’s be real here, it not just the bad start kc is a better team than milw, they have a proven if not spectacular pitcher going while milw throwing a 26 year old rookie making his 1st start, price doesn’t make much sense to me unless we are once again pricing off jerseys and recent years! I feel like kc should prob be -125 or so.
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Someone gonna have to explain to me why in the hell kc is now dogs? I don’t see anything bout this kid who gonna take the mound for milw that scares me. I think Lorenzen who im not a huge fan of a much more likely candidate to pitch a good game here, matter fact against this lineup I think he can prob go 6 and hold them to 3 or less than kc has those 3 nasty relievers to slam the door. Kinda like brewers used to have: this makes no god damn sense to me but im gonna bite on some

Kc ml +106
 
bulldogs said:
sANDY WAS VERY DOMINATE I HIS 1ST START, GRANTED IT WAS THE PIRATES. BALL HAD GREAT MOVEMENT AND FASTBALL WAS LIVE
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Yea he my guy. I have no doubt he will be good. Senga the one 1 I have no clue about, he very hard to cap when he on normal rest in middle the year. I think I recall finding spots where he seemed to be optimal but this isn’t one of them, I gotta believe he has a hard time locating tonight. That said he could walk 4 and still hold fish to next to nothing for 5 innings. Fish Ff I like for sure.
 
Not sure I love the chillier temps for Hendricks but I’ve told you guys about this every time he has pitched against cards the last 5+ years. He dominates us! Other than catching a couple pitches from Anderson who a junk ball throwing lefty cards offense wasn’t very good. Now they face the ultimate junk ball guy who has owned them his entire career in Chicago, unfortunately this most likely only chance we get to bet Hendricks vs cards this year! Lot of those years Hendricks was a top half the rotation pitcher but last year the dude couldn’t get anyone out and he still pulled 7 scoreless out his ass against the cards!! And he facing a kid I been calling a gas can since Tampa sent us this bum! Maybe he can pitch ok vs a pretty bad laa lineup but I actually think this be the day trout gets something cooking! Give me the cardinals kills 1st 5.

Laa ff +125
 
It’s amazing how you can see profar hard hit rate, exit velo, and other shit all jump the year he unknowingly did some juice, at age 33, no coincidence he was a teammate of tatis who not coincidentally accidentally did cycle or 2 himself! They need better trainers, you can’t be testing off the charts during the season, you gotta put your muscle on then cycle off, long as you do it right you keep most your gains! I’m all for doing whatever it takes but cmon guys, if ya gonna cheat, cheat smart!
 
laopadak said:
The Bank & KJ daily show, hosted by Cavs with a rotation of guests. Love it.
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I was all excited My guy @KJ woke up so I had someone to stimulate my brain as I was running out of things I wanted to cap but he came in bull shitting bout I’m not sure what?!?!?? He still my guy and all but he usually either gets me way off topic talking bout other stuff or has something to get me going! He slipping! We might need to dry him out? lol
 
laopadak said:
The Bank & KJ daily show, hosted by Cavs with a rotation of guests. Love it.
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You think I could get guest??!? , I know a great deal of guys who I know which team they follow and like to hear their opinions on! Feel bad my mind slipped a bit with @Marsski w reds as he contributes good reds info every year, took me a second to remember who was my reds insider. Any volunteers to take a team and when I have questions bout said team I can call on them as a special guest?!??
 
Surely all this baseball information rolling around in my head (where normal ppl prob use that space for other things) has to help somebody!! I know I feel smarter every time I read one my post!! Lmao
 
Card getting kinda big. Wasn’t a problem yesterday but I went from spot betting to 7+ plays a day! Lol. Card so far just to make it easier for anyone trying to keep up..lines were from when I posted and bet so may be different.,

Fish Ff +120
Det/sea Ff u 4 -120
A’s +121
A’s tt ov 3.5 -120

2 team parlay +173

Mize ov 4.5
Det/sea NRFI

Kc +106
Rangers Ff -.5 -105
Laa Ff +125


Jfc, I’m pretty sure that not even my whole card! lol
 
2daBank said:
You think I could get guest??!? , I know a great deal of guys who I know which team they follow and like to hear their opinions on! Feel bad my mind slipped a bit with @Marsski w reds as he contributes good reds info every year, took me a second to remember who was my reds insider. Any volunteers to take a team and when I have questions bout said team I can call on them as a special guest?!??
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It's early in the season but a daily MLB thread is good for us all. As the season progresses, I'm sure many members will jump in with their thoughts, leans and plays (your daily guests).

I will certainly contribute when applicable but I'm not much of stats guy / know teams and players that well at all. Just follow scores, news and base my plays on lines / feel and a lot of tailing. Think MLB is a great sport to bet on and slowly learning more daily.
 
Little nervous Steele figures things out tonight and makes me look bad but I actually think at best he goes 5+ innings and gives up 2-3 runs with a elevated pitch count, cubs pen doesn’t scare me. I think A’s gonna enjoy playing in that atmosphere despite getting beat down last night it seemed like a way more fun experience than playing in the old crappy place where it was like a huge buzz kill, I couldn’t even watch a inning of a game in that park!! Not to mention at night you had to really get ahold of one to make it go out in some those massive power ally’s and deep spots around the outside. If yesterday’s beat down proved anything scoring runs here shouldn’t be an issue and long as A’s stay competitive should be packed houses! Kinda like the over 8 there as well but dunno how much I want on that game??
 
laopadak said:
It's early in the season but a daily MLB thread is good for us all. As the season progresses, I'm sure many members will jump in with their thoughts, leans and plays (your daily guests).

I will certainly contribute when applicable but I'm not much of stats guy / know teams and players that well at all. Just follow scores, news and base my plays on lines / feel and a lot of tailing. Think MLB is a great sport to bet on and slowly learning more daily.
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Believe it or not after a week or 2 I watch very little baseball. I do like listening on radio and I do often follow a pitch tracker if someone pitching I want to learn more about. Actually watching games is overrated! Lol. I don’t mind guys who cap differently than me, one the best nba cappers I ever knew mostly bet based off lines. It all takes feel whether you use numbers, watch games, or just flip a coin! I mean I’m big on numbers but anyone smarter than me that can run a computer program can prob come up with close to the line that posted, that doesn’t do a lot of good, even when I’m using numbers it incredibly subjective as to what numbers I’m using, they weight I give them, and why. I actually prefer hearing from guys who do it completely different than myself as I don’t need anyone telling me how I cap games, I already know that! I like stealing from others so the more ideas I hear the better chance I have of picking up something to steal!!!! I think any good capper has taken things from others and figures out what works best for them!!! Now that you have realized how good mlb betting can be you well on your way! I can’t believe so many guys act like this sport is hard to beat while they gearing up for the nfl which a massive pain in the ass! It can be a lot of work but it the only sport I can say I practically never lose money on a season! You gst this asshats who love favs and are generally baffled when some percieved bad team is beating some great team!!
 
I need a nap so bad, my schedule all fucked uo, there no way I make another play till I rest a bit but please feel free to comment on anything I write about, disagreements don’t hurt my feelings, if I can’t rebuttal sometimes I realize I should probably get off a play. It all helps me!! Good post, bad post, anything but what @KJ was posting this morning helps me get my thoughts in order!!
 
Inspekdah said:
It is a good read. I have little to offer other than assemble the out gang when that happens soon.

Until then I'll continue creeping..

View attachment 95339
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The 1st couple years I started posting on these forums (I never did Facebook, Twitter, any that crap), I signed up here and sports book review. At 1st it felt more intimidating to post over here as it seemed like a tight nit group so I mostly posted at Sbr but lurked here as there were def some sharp guys worth reading. Eventually I couldn’t take all the trash at sbr, it was like a giant pissing contest combined with ppl always wanting plays then hated you if one happened to lose! As time went on I gradually posted over here more and more until I stopped anywhere else. Told some the good guys I met at other place they should come here, some did. Sbr biggest advantages was they had huge numbers so I always had ppl to talk to!! Plus they used to have a point system, you could win points and cash in contest, give them away, and you could bet your points in their points book where you could buy all kinds of shit with the points, namely Bitcoin!!! Wish I hadn’t sold it all like a dummy!! Lmfao. But this place has the most intelligent posters and none the grace school bull shit so eventually this became only place I posted after I accomplished my goal of winning “poster of the year” at sbr! Sadly no prize, just a realization you had no life!! Lol
 
I can’t find a senga walk prop on its own on the offshore. Anyone who has it what his walk number? 1.5 or 2.5? I’d be all over senga walking over 1.5
 
I really don't like the card today at all, posted Alcantara u17.5 outs

Went 14 outs vs the Pirates last week, in his first outing in 2 years. Faces a tougher line up, thinking Marlins are easing him slowly, but unless he's cruising every inning, hard to see him reaching 18 in his 2nd start.
 
chipnotized said:
BetSafe has it at 1.5 -192 to the Over
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Jfc. If you can find a good parlay partner I freaking love it. If he doesn’t walk at least 2 I’d be shocked, dare I say he walks at least 3? There some k props with juice I could see attaching this over to. Mize ov 4.5 k’s to pricey to play straight but as parlay partner not bad., may ov 3.5 juicy as fuck but again parlay partner. Rangers 1st 5 you don’t have to lay that pesky half run and let’s be real, rangers have a huge pitching mismatch out the gates so I could parlay senga walks with rangers Ff ml. Off top my head. Maybe senga shocks me but he has shown control issues even when on a strict schedule, fish have seen him a lot, he has made them look really dumb but I also think they started figuring out to lay off that ghost ball unless it starts above the waste. Just some thoughts.
 
peelpub94 said:
I really don't like the card today at all, posted Alcantara u17.5 outs

Went 14 outs vs the Pirates last week, in his first outing in 2 years. Faces a tougher line up, thinking Marlins are easing him slowly, but unless he's cruising every inning, hard to see him reaching 18 in his 2nd start.
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We talked bout in your thread. Nothing wrong w your logic imo, I just hope he gives me 5 strong before he gets yanked. Who knows w fish, you would think they ease him in but before they blew his arm out you could see that coming as they basically refused to take him out of games! This year obviously different but for most his career after his 1st start which typically wasn’t great or go deep he often went 6-8 innings his 2nd start. Of course this should be different off the TJ. I think Sandy finna pitch really well tonight but that doesn’t mean he goes a full 6..

I like this card a lot!! Never know if that good or bad! lol
 
2daBank said:
Jfc. If you can find a good parlay partner I freaking love it. If he doesn’t walk at least 2 I’d be shocked, dare I say he walks at least 3? There some k props with juice I could see attaching this over to. Mize ov 4.5 k’s to pricey to play straight but as parlay partner not bad., may ov 3.5 juicy as fuck but again parlay partner. Rangers 1st 5 you don’t have to lay that pesky half run and let’s be real, rangers have a huge pitching mismatch out the gates so I could parlay senga walks with rangers Ff ml. Off top my head. Maybe senga shocks me but he has shown control issues even when on a strict schedule, fish have seen him a lot, he has made them look really dumb but I also think they started figuring out to lay off that ghost ball unless it starts above the waste. Just some thoughts.
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I'm parlaying "Pitcher to Record Win: No" props this season using the Outs prop as a guide...todays entry:

Liberatore--No (outs prop lined at 13.5) -625
Warren--No (outs at 14.5) -556
..2-teamer -270

So many ways for a pitcher to not get a win and if the books are pricing him to not make it through 5 innings, that's a good start.

Good to see ya babbling like a Thai hooker again banker!
 
2daBank said:
We talked bout in your thread. Nothing wrong w your logic imo, I just hope he gives me 5 strong before he gets yanked. Who knows w fish, you would think they ease him in but before they blew his arm out you could see that coming as they basically refused to take him out of games! This year obviously different but for most his career after his 1st start which typically wasn’t great or go deep he often went 6-8 innings his 2nd start. Of course this should be different off the TJ. I think Sandy finna pitch really well tonight but that doesn’t mean he goes a full 6..

I like this card a lot!! Never know if that good or bad! lol
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All good points. And yeah, just nothing jumping out at me yet, still digging, a little late to the game today. Hope alls well brother.
 
chipnotized said:
I'm parlaying "Pitcher to Record Win: No" props this season using the Outs prop as a guide...todays entry:

Liberatore--No (outs prop lined at 13.5) -625
Warren--No (outs at 14.5) -556
..2-teamer -270

So many ways for a pitcher to not get a win and if the books are pricing him to not make it through 5 innings, that's a good start.

Good to see ya babbling like a Thai hooker again banker!
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Like this angle a lot too.
 
chipnotized said:
I'm parlaying "Pitcher to Record Win: No" props this season using the Outs prop as a guide...todays entry:

Liberatore--No (outs prop lined at 13.5) -625
Warren--No (outs at 14.5) -556
..2-teamer -270

So many ways for a pitcher to not get a win and if the books are pricing him to not make it through 5 innings, that's a good start.

Good to see ya babbling like a Thai hooker again banker!
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Where do you do those?
 
chipnotized said:
I'm parlaying "Pitcher to Record Win: No" props this season using the Outs prop as a guide...todays entry:

Liberatore--No (outs prop lined at 13.5) -625
Warren--No (outs at 14.5) -556
..2-teamer -270

So many ways for a pitcher to not get a win and if the books are pricing him to not make it through 5 innings, that's a good start.

Good to see ya babbling like a Thai hooker again banker!
Click to expand...

Interesting idea. But didn’t you read how I went on and on bout how Hendricks has owned the cards his whole career? Even last year when he couldn’t get any other team out he managed 7 scoreless against cards! Liberatore a boarder line gas can! As @VirginiaCavs was saying the other day he was a pretty solid reliever but cards can’t justify what they gave up to have him as a middle relief pitcher, they gonna give him every chance to be a starter which means plenty of chances to fade this scrub! Laa 1st 5 ml has a nice plus money number attached to them. Cards just faced Anderson who basically a poor man’s lefty version of Hendricks and outside the 2 early solo shots they did very little to him. Seems like a good day for trout to break out and Hendricks will do the rest to cash the 1st 5!!
 
Gotta get ready to go see Theresa for awhile. Hopefully I’ll be back by time most the games start, just depends how she doing or awake she is.
 
Feel pretty confident cards lose at least 1 of next 2 and they favs in both. Prefer 1st 5 today but pretty sure you play las next 2 games you will be up,
 
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