Odds
Tuesday Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Sorry for the few days off, just got kinda busy.
Think I like the idea of rangers Ff -.5, don’t love Eovaldi k’s at 6.5 but I do think he should be able to hold down pirates lineup for 5 innings. I never been a rich hill believer, he has got me plenty but I just can’t see him having a strong outing vs a very good lhp hitting rangers lineup. Not interested in laying -150s for game cause don’t trust rangers pen but think this a game I feel good about knocking the juice down laying the half run for a 5 inning lead.
Should yankee really be laying this vs the red hot O’s? Cole was fantastic to start the year and his last start was pretty good but he struggled a few starts in a row vs rays and I think O’s will be able to get to him a bit. I def think bradish will keep them in the game, this a nice price to back what I think is a better lineup and a pen that is just as strong as yanks.
Red Sox at even money, think we getting the better pitcher, I like Bello and think canning will struggle with Sox lineup.
I dunno if I can do it but the price in Seattle is crazy tonight considering A’s have the vastly more talented starter on the bump, not sure I can back these losers but this about the best looking spot I’ve seen to think bout them in weeks.
Not sure what to do in cincy? Waino always struggled in that park when he had better stuff, I’m not sure bout cincy lineup at moment but I just don’t think waino gonna have many great outings, he has to trick ppl and sometimes he makes it thru a lineup once but big leaguers are gonna hit him, foul off his good pitches and punish mistakes. It just the reality of who he is right now. I like Ashcraft but I do wonder if cards can hit him? I’ve seen them have some success vs pitchers throwing a ton of cutters, not sure any of them were as heavy as Ashcraft cutter but it is a pitch they can have success against. Feel like we see some runs here but the total is pretty high, gotta look a little deeper.
Just sone 1st thoughts, didn’t see a ton of pitcher props I liked but there a few, I’ll post them after I play them.
Think I like the idea of rangers Ff -.5, don’t love Eovaldi k’s at 6.5 but I do think he should be able to hold down pirates lineup for 5 innings. I never been a rich hill believer, he has got me plenty but I just can’t see him having a strong outing vs a very good lhp hitting rangers lineup. Not interested in laying -150s for game cause don’t trust rangers pen but think this a game I feel good about knocking the juice down laying the half run for a 5 inning lead.
Should yankee really be laying this vs the red hot O’s? Cole was fantastic to start the year and his last start was pretty good but he struggled a few starts in a row vs rays and I think O’s will be able to get to him a bit. I def think bradish will keep them in the game, this a nice price to back what I think is a better lineup and a pen that is just as strong as yanks.
Red Sox at even money, think we getting the better pitcher, I like Bello and think canning will struggle with Sox lineup.
I dunno if I can do it but the price in Seattle is crazy tonight considering A’s have the vastly more talented starter on the bump, not sure I can back these losers but this about the best looking spot I’ve seen to think bout them in weeks.
Not sure what to do in cincy? Waino always struggled in that park when he had better stuff, I’m not sure bout cincy lineup at moment but I just don’t think waino gonna have many great outings, he has to trick ppl and sometimes he makes it thru a lineup once but big leaguers are gonna hit him, foul off his good pitches and punish mistakes. It just the reality of who he is right now. I like Ashcraft but I do wonder if cards can hit him? I’ve seen them have some success vs pitchers throwing a ton of cutters, not sure any of them were as heavy as Ashcraft cutter but it is a pitch they can have success against. Feel like we see some runs here but the total is pretty high, gotta look a little deeper.
Just sone 1st thoughts, didn’t see a ton of pitcher props I liked but there a few, I’ll post them after I play them.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think if I was gonna make a play in cincy it have to be reds team total over 4.5, or Ff tt ov 2.5. My suspicion about cards being able to hit Ashcraft has merit, they scored 8 runs off him in 2 games where he totaled just 9.1 innings. Maybe the over 10.5 should be the play? I do think it perfectly reasonable to expect both teams to score at least 5.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
They finally raised Senga to 6.5 k’s, so hard to predict, if he could just consistently locate his fastball he would be dominant but always gotta worry bout lot of walks limiting his innings. He was fantastic last time out and 3 walks over 6 innings is ok for him, just can’t be having more than that. Cubs ain’t been swinging the bats real well, if he on he could make them look silly. I woulda been on him at 5.5, kinda torn at 6.5.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
I would go full game if you are going to play TT with Reds. I was looking at that myself with Waino looking like a shell of his former self. Ashcraft has to pound the zone low and get groundballs. When he doens't he gets into trouble....I think his true talent is more what he showed in April than May if that makes sense...I lean to Reds ML and TT over...
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I like Ashcraft a lot but I don’t think cards are a great matchup for him, they have shown ability to smash some pitchers throwing primarily cutters and they banged him up last year. He does throw lot of sliders which good but I don’t think he has a great slider. I lean more to the full game team total also, I mean if they get 3 off waino thru 5 there a pretty good chance they get 2 off the pen anyways. Starting to think I might just prefer the full game over 10.5 as I think cards offense will contribute plenty to the total. Far as side it feels like a coin flip to me so I can’t fault you wanting to play reds at plus but think I’m more interested in the total.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
That price on fish feels cheap, big fan of the Perez kid I just don’t love backing guys making their 1st start in Colorado. I’d think even if his breaking stuff wasn’t as sharp he could get by w the heater. Gomber has had a miserable time at coors this year and fish lineup been solid vs lhp.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Thing that sucks for me backing Fish is their offense never fails to disappoint. Even last night scoring only 3 runs in Colorado is offensive ineptitude regardless of who is on the mound. Gotta score to win according to the rule book.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Here the card:
Rangers Ff -.5
Balty ml
Stl/cin ov 10.5
Bos ml
Fish Ff
Perez ov 4.5 k’s
Medina ov 5.5 k’s
Bello 5+ k’s/Red Sox tt ov 4.5
always a risk w a kid pitching at coors for the 1st time but man perez seems like the real deal to me, long as they keep setting him at 4.5 im playing it, we gonna win more than lose on that number. My guess this be last time we see a 4.5 if he does well here, if he doesn’t then we prob get another crack next start.
Medina a tough one but the +125 I think makes him worth a shot, seattle striking out 30% their abs vs rhp and this kid stuff is plenty good enough to punch these guys out.
I coulda just played the over 5.5 on Bello at plus money, just sucks I been getting 4,5s on him most his starts going back to last year, it really just a matter of how much you trust him? If he continues to improve and getting into the 6th he should fan 6+, I just felt better at 5 to cash and I’m pretty confident Sox score on canning.
Rangers Ff -.5
Balty ml
Stl/cin ov 10.5
Bos ml
Fish Ff
Perez ov 4.5 k’s
Medina ov 5.5 k’s
Bello 5+ k’s/Red Sox tt ov 4.5
always a risk w a kid pitching at coors for the 1st time but man perez seems like the real deal to me, long as they keep setting him at 4.5 im playing it, we gonna win more than lose on that number. My guess this be last time we see a 4.5 if he does well here, if he doesn’t then we prob get another crack next start.
Medina a tough one but the +125 I think makes him worth a shot, seattle striking out 30% their abs vs rhp and this kid stuff is plenty good enough to punch these guys out.
I coulda just played the over 5.5 on Bello at plus money, just sucks I been getting 4,5s on him most his starts going back to last year, it really just a matter of how much you trust him? If he continues to improve and getting into the 6th he should fan 6+, I just felt better at 5 to cash and I’m pretty confident Sox score on canning.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Junk gets ks a lot whether it's swinging out their cleats or expecting junk and don't know how to time pulling the trigger
These guys are so programmed to time mid 90s shit it's awesome to watch them get so confused...not just tonight, I'm on the Rags too but it's always great stuff to watch
2daBank
Voice of Reason
2daBank
Voice of Reason
It’s super interesting how long books will stick with things they believed coming into the season. We like 1/3 the way in, it time to start believing what ya seeing. Yes I think teams like cards, phillies, Mets, etc could easily get hot at some point but I think they crazy to keep pricing them certain ways against teams who just been better. This why I love betting bases tho. Lines are based way more off perception than reality!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Bang, there it is! 6-3 cards. No damn way we don’t see 11+ runs
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Well it's there
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Cards really seem to love cutters. They crushed Jansen in b2b save chances, I couldn’t believe Sox went to him the 2nd day: they always hit this kid even though he pumping 99-100 cutters. Velo don’t bother these guys but if you have a nasty slider you can get 92 past them after showing them the slider enough.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Don't matter now
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
DK already paid it out in my account
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Here's the conundrum
Let's say you have o7.5 and it's 4-3 and called in the 6th due to rain. I don't see any way they consider your wager a loser, honestly I don't think they would at DK. I'm not even sure they'd pay unders at that point. But it's been very beneficial so far.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I get it, I understand why that kinda stuff gets voided. The way I looked at that game is my pitcher was done even if they played rest of it after a hour or 2 delay, I knew he had to hit the number before delay, You know your guy not coming back even if the game does get finished so it pretty much a loser anyways but I have no clue what they would do. I usually try to stay away from pitcher props with chances of weather but got caught slipping that day, lol.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
Good call. I had Cincy TT so I had to wait until the 6th. I thought Waino looked shockingly bad. Totally washed. I noticed he doesn’t hardly ever get deep in the counts. Under Ks all day with the frisbees he’s tossing. Had 2 today.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
My post was all about the macro and nothing to do with this game in particular
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I have no clue what to do with his k’s cause he has come out a few times and racked up quite a few k’s the 1st time thru the lineup, but yea man he totally washed,( it just speaks to how crappy cards pitching is they begged him back again), he not getting thru lineups a second time without damage, he has to throw everything he has to get them the 1st time. After one his starts where he got knocked around 2nd time around he straight up said that was the best he had, he was making all his pitches. So for me the path of least resistance been I’m playing team total overs against him or game totals in a case like today where I was confident cards would score runs. Bottom line I’m not sure there a lineup in the league who can’t get him for 4 runs thru 5 innings, that like his best case.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
I was pretty much betting against Bronson Arroyo one year every game and maybe he’s one to bet similarly. I don’t watch cards games that often so it was a shock to see it that bad. He must be throwing the whole kitchen sink.
