Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Sep 6 Tue 2022

05:35 PM
901New York MetsT. Walker -R-1½
-125		-206O 8
-120
902Pittsburgh PiratesM. Keller -R+1½
+105		+189U 8
+100
05:40 PM
915Boston Red SoxR. Hill -L+1½
-160		+139O 7
-110
916Tampa Bay RaysD. Rasmussen -R-1½
+140		-151U 7
-110
05:45 PM
903Miami MarlinsJ. Luzardo -L+1½
-120		+193O 7
+105
904Philadelphia PhilliesA. Nola -R-1½
+100		-212U 7
-125
06:05 PM
919Minnesota TwinsJ. Ryan -R+1½
-130		+175O 7
+100
920New York YankeesG. Cole -R-1½
+110		-191U 7
-120
06:40 PM
905Cincinnati RedsJ. Dunn -R+148
906Chicago CubsW. Miley -L-161
06:45 PM
907Washington NationalsP. Espino -R+1½
+100		+214O 8
-107
908St. Louis CardinalsJ. Quintana -L-1½
-120		-238U 8
-113
07:10 PM
921Cleveland GuardiansS. Bieber -R-1½
-110		-181O 7½
+100
922Kansas City RoyalsK. Bubic -L+1½
-110		+166U 7½
-120
07:10 PM
923Texas RangersG. Otto -R+1½
+100		+230O 8
+110
924Houston AstrosF. Valdez -L-1½
-120		-257U 8
-130
07:40 PM
909Milwaukee BrewersB. Woodruff -R-1½
-125		-185O 11
+100
910Colorado RockiesC. Kuhl -R+1½
+105		+170U 11
-120
08:38 PM
925Detroit TigersE. Rodriguez -L+1½
-160		+130O 8
-115
926Los Angeles AngelsM. Mayers -R-1½
+140		-141U 8
-105
08:40 PM
911Arizona DiamondbacksM. Kelly -R+1½
-150		+148O 7
-120
912San Diego PadresJ. Musgrove -R-1½
+130		-161U 7
+100
08:40 PM
927Chicago White SoxJ. Cueto -R+1½
-170		+130O 7
-115
928Seattle MarinersL. Gilbert -R-1½
+150		-141U 7
-105
08:40 PM
929Atlanta BravesK. Wright -R-1½
-120		-212O 7
-120
930Oakland AthleticsC. Irvin -L+1½
+100		+193U 7
+100
 
Def lean kc Ff again (or cle Ff under), cle really hasn’t seen Bubic all year and only the fish have a worse ops vs lefties.
 
I think we see a whole bunch of scoring at coors tonight. It super hot in Colorado which I assume should just make ball fly more. I been saying all year Woodruff hasn’t been the same dude, he been solid but not lights out, he struggled in coors all his best years so I can’t imagine a year he a bit down he gonna have success. I think we have done a pretty good job identifying the pitchers who gonna shit on brewers lineup so I feel pretty good saying kuhl a guy Milw should mash and has once already this year. He walks too many for coors and he allows over 1.5 bombs per 9, this the perfect pitcher for milw lineup! I don’t see much reason to try and get tricky with how we play it, just take the full game over 11.
 
I like Arizona as a dog tonight...Kelly great history in San Diego, matches up well vs Padres who hit his pitches terribly from righties, and Arizona as a team is hitting well in their most recent games during which span of play they rank well against Musgrove's favorite pitches.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I like Arizona as a dog tonight...Kelly great history in San Diego, matches up well vs Padres who hit his pitches terribly from righties, and Arizona as a team is hitting well in their most recent games during which span of play they rank well against Musgrove's favorite pitches.
Click to expand...

Snakes been hot for over a month now! Pretty sure they have a top 5ish ops the last 30 days. Dunno what got into them but they playing winning baseball going all way back to trade deadline when pads added all those guys!! Lol
 
Well fuck, I had 3 k props but one has gotten bet up from 3.5 to 4.5, don’t think there enough room to still play it, basically a coin flip at 4.5 imo… still got 2.5 hours till casino opens can only hope the others don’t get hit till I get them!
 
Espino stood out to me at 2.5, the only thing is the Cards are so hot, what if they get to him early and he gets run before he goes 5. If I thought he was going 5 for sure, I would take the chance.

Went ahead and took Kyle Wright for my only play at o4.5. Good strikeout numbers, A’s a below average team and he’s gone at least 6 the last 5 starts. Might be my only play today.
 
I’m worrying less about the juice this late in the season because I’m making fewer plays. Yes, Wacha was expensive yesterday, but I felt like it was a no doubter and I only had 2 plays yesterday.
 
askias said:
I’m worrying less about the juice this late in the season because I’m making fewer plays. Yes, Wacha was expensive yesterday, but I felt like it was a no doubter and I only had 2 plays yesterday.
Click to expand...

I lay it when I feel that way, long as you have them hitting the number a high enough percentage the time to justify it there nothing wrong w it. I remember month or 2 back there was a Burnes number I thought was worth playing around -250!
 
Pizza money on the Yankees RL, just playing the streak. Since 2002, the Twins are 13-51 at Yankee Stadium.
 
In itself there nothing wrong w laying any number, long as the play hits a higher percentage the time than the juice represents.
 
Let me know what you think about Houston first five. Doesn’t Valdez have a ridiculous quality starts streak? Might do a small amount on -.5 tonight.
 
Of course, Valdez o5.5 is also a great option, just haven’t pulled the trigger on it yet.
 
askias said:
Let me know what you think about Houston first five. Doesn’t Valdez have a ridiculous quality starts streak? Might do a small amount on -.5 tonight.
Click to expand...

Hell, throw away the 1st month (which I pretty much did w every pitcher this year cause they shortened spring) and I think he has had maybe one start all year that wasn’t a QS and think he has went 6+ innings in every start!). There nothing wrong w houston just expensive even laying the half run and there several dogs I like today and I just prefer playing them if it a option. Really just comes down to Stros bats vs otto, you think they can get 2-3 runs off him should cash.
 
Only issue I see w Valdez k’s this is 3rd time in a month tex seeing him and in B2B starts, he has dominated them in all but rangers do have the 8th best ops in baseball vs lhp.
 
I do prefer Valdez k’s to houston Ff -.5 -165 tho, Stros havnt really been swinging bats real well lately, I hate taking teams Ff and laying the half run (with juice on top) when the offense isn’t clicking. Seattle has gotten me a ton of times like that, pitcher does his job but the offense doesn’t score shit before the 6th inning!!
 
I like the weekends better when they open at 8, I hate being ready to rock and have to wait and hope nobody hits my numbers!! It so dumb, i don’t need anyone there to use the machines! The casino open so really annoying i can stare at them but not bet!! I can cash tickets on casino side but I don’t give a shit bout that, all that do is get me playing table games waiting on these fucks!!
 
number2 said:
Gonna tail you for some action…….
Click to expand...

Hopefully this ain’t the day I disappoint, lol. If I had it my way I would have 3-5 k props and only couple sides/totals but like I was saying in ncaa thread they have mostly tightened k numbers up except for the football days seem to be the exceptions! Hurts me having to wait for DK to open as I loved bradish over 3.5 but that got picked off before I could get to it.
 
Man, Luzardo at 5.5 ev money is interesting, he has a awesome swinging strike rate and fanning more than 10 per/9 which would usually have me all over this! The obvious fear Philly is mashing and has one the best team ops in the league vs lhp. Despite his nasty stuff Luzardo is no stranger to getting knocked around! Fish management among my favorite as they love letting their starters earn their paychecks! As long as you getting outs and avoiding a straight turnstile around the bases they gonna lean on you to eat innings!

Luzardo has only failed to go 5+ innings in 2 starts, so again yoi would think this number a automatic play!? Oddly enough despite going 5 or more innings and having filthy swing and miss stuff he has only fanned 6+ in 7 of 12 starts including only punching out 4 in his last 2 against teams who fan a lot!! At even money kinda feels like he worth a shot but I’d really like to know why despite his 10+ k/9 he has only fanned 1 per inning or more in about half his starts? I’d love to find some kind of binding trend as to why before taking the plunge here.
 
Luzardo even fanned 6 at Arizona in a game he walked a ton, got blown up, and only went 2.2 innings (most of you know my theory bout that park so no biggie). It’s really just his last 2 starts that concern me, other than only fanning 4 in each he actually pitched pretty well!! But only 4k’s in 6 innings vs tampa and very odd only 4 k’s in 7 freaking innings vs Oakland has me puzzled. Just one of those and I’d write it off but b2b games and I gotta take notice.
 
2daBank said:
Only couple k props so far (missed couple numbers)

Wright ov4.5 k’s -170
Kelly ov 4.5 k’s +105

Rest:

Cws ff +120
Snakes Ff +.5 -110
Cle/kc Ff u4 -120
Milw/rox ov 11
Tigers +115
Click to expand...

Added

Tyler anderson ov4.5 -130 (bigger)
Luzardo ov 5.5 ev (smaller)

Sorry, they just came out with these and couldn’t let anderson go by. He far from my favorite pitcher but the numbers scream he gonna go deep and fan 5+ here. I honestly wouldn’t have came back up here for Luzardo as I mentioned above I was struggling a bit with him, but since had to play anderson so was back up here anyways decided might as well take a small flyer on Luzardo without any juice. (I wouldn’t play him if you have to lay anything as I think it rather close to a coin flip).
 
That should for sure be all, didn’t plan on that but didn’t realize they had yet to put some numbers out this morning
 
Shane Bieber o5.5 is getting hit hard. His recent numbers are quite good, but he only struck out 4 vs KC. Waited too long on Framber and he’s up to 6.5.
 
askias said:
Shane Bieber o5.5 is getting hit hard. His recent numbers are quite good, but he only struck out 4 vs KC. Waited too long on Framber and he’s up to 6.5.
Click to expand...
askias said:
Shane Bieber o5.5 is getting hit hard. His recent numbers are quite good, but he only struck out 4 vs KC. Waited too long on Framber and he’s up to 6.5.
Click to expand...

Kc not a real high k team, I like the under Ff or game under more than laying the juice on Biebs needing 6+.

I think Valdez was only 5.5 for a small window, I’m sure I saw him 6.5 before you brought him up, then after you said 5.5 I tried to get there and get it but it was 6.5 again.
 
I seriously did not plan on having a card this big. Been awhile since had this many. If they would have put all the k props out at same time and I knew I had 3 or 4 I might have tried to cut down sides and totals. Don’t get me wrong I like them all but I rather not be having 8-9-10 mlb plays this late in the year!
 
2daBank said:
I seriously did not plan on having a card this big. Been awhile since had this many. If they would have put all the k props out at same time and I knew I had 3 or 4 I might have tried to cut down sides and totals. Don’t get me wrong I like them all but I rather not be having 8-9-10 mlb plays this late in the year!
Click to expand...
I’ve just RR your K’s props…..beer money RR….and $10 bucks apiece on all 9 plays straight up……
 
number2 said:
I’ve just RR your K’s props…..beer money RR….and $10 bucks apiece on all 9 plays straight up……
Click to expand...

I couldn’t RR them all together like I normally would cause the assholes took so long to put some out. I used to try and wait till they were all out but found the ones already out would Fuckinh move a bunch waiting on the others. I parlayed the 1st 2, played Kelly straight (cause he was cheap), then put wright in a RR w few the others. When I went back I did a 3 man RR with the next 2 and wright (he my fav plus didht play him straight cause the high juice), then sizable straight on anderson.
 
Duckers didn’t even move all that much today so coulda waited. Kelly went from +105 to -120 but that not shit compared to how some take off! Really wanted bradish ov 3,5 but he got bet up to 4,5 before casino opened. Same w Valdez who went from 5.5 to 6,5!!
 
2daBank said:
I couldn’t RR them all together like I normally would cause the assholes took so long to put some out. I used to try and wait till they were all out but found the ones already out would Fuckinh move a bunch waiting on the others. I parlayed the 1st 2, played Kelly straight (cause he was cheap), then put wright in a RR w few the others. When I went back I did a 3 man RR with the next 2 and wright (he my fav plus didht play him straight cause the high juice), then sizable straight on anderson.
Click to expand...
I played it at Caesar’s sportsbook……they had the free bet bonus that I took advantage of……I tailed PC on the Purdue TT over….it was high juice, but came out with winner for $800…..then blew it away on Saturday……luckily hit all my Alabama plays to pull even …..
 
I see Dunn got bet down to 3.5, I would play over that number but im done for the night. I already have a bunch of money out!
 
I took over 6.5. Rangers lineup doesn't scare me even if they were seeing him the 3rd time in a month. He's plenty good enough to adjust
 
Luzardo dealing, just needs 1 more! I waited so long to look at scoreboard tonight just to realize damn near all my plays start late, lol, that sucks! I was so hoping a handful of them be hour into games, damn.
 
Now I got 3 hour wait before any others nd getting close, ugh. Seems kinda unusual having all these west coast games! EspeciAlly with so many damn plays, you would think I have a few going at least!
 
2daBank said:
Now I got 3 hour wait before any others nd getting close, ugh. Seems kinda unusual having all these west coast games! EspeciAlly with so many damn plays, you would think I have a few going at least!
Click to expand...
You have under in KC...go nothing!
 
Played Ohtani o.5 RBI +160

Heard something today he has 18 RBI in 18 games against Detroit. I get that stat lines for hitters can be tough but that line seems excessive
 
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