Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
May 25 Tue 2021

6:40 PM
953Philadelphia PhilliesV. Velasquez -R+118O 7
+100
954Miami MarlinsS. Alcantara -R+1 Markets-128U 7
-120
7:05 PM
955Cincinnati RedsT. Mahle -R+145O 7½
+105
956Washington NationalsM. Scherzer -R-157U 7½
-125
7:05 PM
963Toronto Blue JaysS. Matz -L+144O 9
-115
964New York YankeesC. Kluber -R-156U 9
-105
7:10 PM
957Colorado RockiesK. Freeland -L+216O 6½
+105
958New York MetsJ. Degrom -R+1 Markets-240U 6½
-125
7:10 PM
965Cleveland IndiansA. Civale -R-135O 9
+105
966Detroit TigersT. Skubal -L+1 Markets+125U 9
-125
7:10 PM
967Kansas City RoyalsB. Keller -R+151O 8½
+100
968Tampa Bay RaysR. Hill -L-164U 8½
-120
7:10 PM
975Atlanta BravesC. Morton -R-115O 9½
-120
976Boston Red SoxG. Richards -R+105U 9½
+100
7:40 PM
959San Diego PadresJ. Musgrove -R+107O 7
-110
960Milwaukee BrewersC. Burnes -R+1 Markets-117U 7
-110
7:40 PM
969Baltimore OriolesD. Kremer -R+179O 9
-115
970Minnesota TwinsJ. Berrios -R+1 Markets-195U 9
-105
8:10 PM
977Los Angeles DodgersC. Kershaw -L-122O 8
-115
978Houston AstrosZ. Greinke -R+112U 8
-105
8:10 PM
979St. Louis CardinalsJ. Flaherty -R+120O 8
+100
980Chicago White SoxL. Giolito -R+1 Markets-130U 8
-120
9:38 PM
971Texas RangersH. Yang -L+136O 8½
-105
972Los Angeles AngelsA. Heaney -L-147U 8½
-115
9:40 PM
973Seattle MarinersL. Gilbert -R+152O 8
-120
974Oakland AthleticsC. Irvin -L+1 Markets-165U 8
+100
 
hmm there are a lot of decent teams out there dogged tomorrow and a chance to fade deGrom

May 25velasquez
freeland
musgrove
matz
SKUBAL
yang
RICHARDSG
GREINKE
flaherty
 
Bauer is going for the doyers tomorrow, someone’s getting beaned right?
 
Velasquez arm issues getting him scratched from his last scheduled start then showing up in relief is probably enough for me to skip. Alcantara all fastballs is a worry, but i guess that's not a real lean

Matz a decent price, but we know his issues with fastball command and he hasn't proven we can look the other way yet on that. Kluber leaves some to be desired, but even if he just hangs with Matz you gotta expect the NYY bullpen to be a big favorite vs whatever TOR is doing (which is gross mis-management according to me)

Skubal team playing well, probably a silly price last night swelling into the -130 (57%) chance to win range thanks to a poor CLE starter and the win streak. Bullpen blew it and that's still a major concern, big underdog there even with CLE looking a little worse there lately. I don't like Civale as a big favorite, he's a hang-around pitcher not going to do much better than a minimum qualifier QS (6ip maybe 7 with 3er). Problem is that's a good night for Skubal even against the CLE lineup, he'll have to emerge with a lead and maybe even a multi-run lead since the DET bullpen is unlikely to hold a single or win a tie game

Freeland only 4 k's in 10 rehab innings is scary for a guy who doesn't rate like a high K% guy and that's what you need in this game. NYM lineup is so weak right now with all their injuries, deGrom on the other side also has a wide range of outcomes due to his injuries recently. Not sure a 1ip outing is too far from a reasonable possibility if he shows any health concerns or has diminished velocity or whatever. Probably won't go past 100 pitches, 85 wouldn't be an unrealistic limit either. He went 3 perfect IP in his rehab start with 8 k's, only 41 pitches. He threw 68 in 5ip his last MLB start, 93 before that and 109 previous start not hitting 100 in any of the others. So I don't think it's unreasonable to expect an abbreviated start for him in the 85 range, which would mean 6 innings at the normal 15-pitches per inning rate.

So if JdG goes 6, that means 3 innings of May/Diaz then Familia/Castro which is a bit of a yikes. COL pen is horrible though, Familia/Castro would be an upgrade for what they're putting out there so while I don't agree with this 31% price on COL it is going to take a good outing from Freeland, some timely hitting and a non-blowup from the bullpen, which is a lot to ask. Bard still doesn't know where his heater is going, slider is good as a surprise pitch for a called strike to L but it hangs belt high if not above. Estevez with the save last night probably is in the mix with Givens to cover 3 then Almonte/Stephenson if more are needed. No LHP, but that's only a problem for Lindor hitting on his strong side and Smith who isn't a power threat
 
GWarner27 said:
Velasquez arm issues getting him scratched from his last scheduled start then showing up in relief is probably enough for me to skip. Alcantara all fastballs is a worry, but i guess that's not a real lean

Matz a decent price, but we know his issues with fastball command and he hasn't proven we can look the other way yet on that. Kluber leaves some to be desired, but even if he just hangs with Matz you gotta expect the NYY bullpen to be a big favorite vs whatever TOR is doing (which is gross mis-management according to me)

Skubal team playing well, probably a silly price last night swelling into the -130 (57%) chance to win range thanks to a poor CLE starter and the win streak. Bullpen blew it and that's still a major concern, big underdog there even with CLE looking a little worse there lately. I don't like Civale as a big favorite, he's a hang-around pitcher not going to do much better than a minimum qualifier QS (6ip maybe 7 with 3er). Problem is that's a good night for Skubal even against the CLE lineup, he'll have to emerge with a lead and maybe even a multi-run lead since the DET bullpen is unlikely to hold a single or win a tie game

Freeland only 4 k's in 10 rehab innings is scary for a guy who doesn't rate like a high K% guy and that's what you need in this game. NYM lineup is so weak right now with all their injuries, deGrom on the other side also has a wide range of outcomes due to his injuries recently. Not sure a 1ip outing is too far from a reasonable possibility if he shows any health concerns or has diminished velocity or whatever. Probably won't go past 100 pitches, 85 wouldn't be an unrealistic limit either. He went 3 perfect IP in his rehab start with 8 k's, only 41 pitches. He threw 68 in 5ip his last MLB start, 93 before that and 109 previous start not hitting 100 in any of the others. So I don't think it's unreasonable to expect an abbreviated start for him in the 85 range, which would mean 6 innings at the normal 15-pitches per inning rate.

So if JdG goes 6, that means 3 innings of May/Diaz then Familia/Castro which is a bit of a yikes. COL pen is horrible though, Familia/Castro would be an upgrade for what they're putting out there so while I don't agree with this 31% price on COL it is going to take a good outing from Freeland, some timely hitting and a non-blowup from the bullpen, which is a lot to ask. Bard still doesn't know where his heater is going, slider is good as a surprise pitch for a called strike to L but it hangs belt high if not above. Estevez with the save last night probably is in the mix with Givens to cover 3 then Almonte/Stephenson if more are needed. No LHP, but that's only a problem for Lindor hitting on his strong side and Smith who isn't a power threat
Click to expand...
sadly it's not all on Charlie as I think the analytics team has a bigger say and I think it's hard for him to veto. Safe to say their data they are feeding their models are pretty much crap in and crap out. One of the games Romano zoomed by with 12 pitches, you're telling me you can't ask him to go out for another inning to throw 12-15 again?

I will fade Kluber on the premise of the nono being his previous start otherwise i'm holding my breath for that wager. Manoah is up tomorrow.
 
BOS rested player instead of going for the road sweep @ PHI, Verdugo looks iffy but others should return and the DH is back. Richards did what was asked of him after he got a big lead in Dunedin, should be relieved to start in a pitcher's park compared to that jet stream bandbox. Richards 5 decent starts in a row, 7 of 8 and the ATL lineup has underachieved so far this season.

Riley on fire last week, Acuna always scary. Maybe they DH Ozuna to avoid his lollypops even from shallow LF, or they keep him there and start Sandoval. Swanson getting better, Freeman always a threat no matter how he's going and then who knows if you catch Albies on a good day. Decent lineup, but it has not produced so far and Richards when he's at his best can make it tough on anybody.

Road favorites seem insane to me, Morton good in his last start but that was the joke NYM lineup they're running out right now. That's one of his 3 good starts on the season out of 9, don't think that'll happen tonight when the entire fantasy community has cut bait. ATL bullpen is getting healthier and deeper, will need it to cover innings since Morton is one of those get him out after 85 pitches guys.

Top of the bullpen is best for BOS, maybe weaker depth but Richards can cover more than Morton lessening that impact.

ATL lineup out and as expected Sandoval DH. Don't want to lose EV on Richards, so debating whether i play now before a BOS lineup or wait
 
gsro said:
sadly it's not all on Charlie as I think the analytics team has a bigger say and I think it's hard for him to veto. Safe to say their data they are feeding their models are pretty much crap in and crap out. One of the games Romano zoomed by with 12 pitches, you're telling me you can't ask him to go out for another inning to throw 12-15 again?

I will fade Kluber on the premise of the nono being his previous start otherwise i'm holding my breath for that wager. Manoah is up tomorrow.
Click to expand...

the homer is coming out of you in that, fading a no-no is not enough to back TOR in a spot where they're going to need the bullpen and it has been a disaster. And that's if Matz has a good night, which he's fairly likely to get bombed (about as likely to toss a gem)

Using Romano for 5-6-7 vs BOS is not smarter than Dolis 8-9-1 with the heart coming up after that and Montoyo can overrule the analytics people he has the lineup card
 
GWarner27 said:
the homer is coming out of you in that, fading a no-no is not enough to back TOR in a spot where they're going to need the bullpen and it has been a disaster. And that's if Matz has a good night, which he's fairly likely to get bombed (about as likely to toss a gem)

Using Romano for 5-6-7 vs BOS is not smarter than Dolis 8-9-1 with the heart coming up after that and Montoyo can overrule the analytics people he has the lineup card
Click to expand...
Why? I have faded every no no this year and have been quite profitable. Every insider in Toronto on radio and tv have asked Charlie about this and he has deferred to the analytics every single time. Which makes one wonder how much of a say he really had. If we are saying he has full autonomy, he has mismanaged his team vastly, it’s probably even worse if you’re telling me he’s making these decisions because I feel there is still room for the 'gut' aspect of coaching along with the analytics. At least if he’s veto’d there’s the explanation it’s not him. Why Travis Bergen is being used in any situation let alone a high leverage one. Trotting out Dolis off the IL in a high leverage is no bueno. Toronto has taken a collaborative approach to asset usage in their games and this is where all the questions stem on who truly as the final say or is Charlie just showing Ross Atkins that his bullpen signings are trash and he needs help?
 
Last edited:
gsro said:
Why? I have faded every no no this year and have been quite profitable. Every insider in Toronto on radio and tv have asked Charlie about this and he has deferred to the analytics every single time. Which makes one wonder how much of a say he really had. If we are saying he has full autonomy, he has mismanaged his team vastly, it’s probably even worse if you’re telling me he’s making these decisions because I feel there is still room for the 'gut' aspect of coaching along with the analytics. At least if he’s veto’d there’s the explanation it’s not him. Why Travis Bergen is being used in any situation let alone a high leverage one. Trotting out Dolis off the IL in a high leverage is no bueno. Toronto has taken a collaborative approach to asset usage in their games and this is where all the questions stem on who truly as the final say or is Charlie just showing Ross Atkins that his bullpen signings are trash and he needs help?
Click to expand...

if you're just fading the no-no then go ahead, i'm not sure that's going work at a profitable clip when there's so much going against TOR in this one but getting odds in a 50-50 game is hard for me to ever find fault in the dog
 
GWarner27 said:
curious what the average price was going against them
Click to expand...
April 14 SD/Pitt; PItt closed +183
April 20 CWS/Cle, Cle closed -105
May 11 NYM/Bal, NYM closed -152
May 14 CIN/COL, COL closed -104
May 24, DET/CLE, CLE closed +118

1 heavy fave, 2 decent dogs and the rest pretty even @GWarner27
 
Musgrove has had a ton of high-stress innings on his arm this season, no-no and that crazy SNB start @ LAD included. Two L's after that one vs/@ SF followed up by two wins vs StL and toothless road COL. Nine starts so far this season with 6 IP or less in 6, i guess looking at that differently 4 starts 6 or more. Length may be an issue for him, but SD bullpen is pretty fresh. Musgrove with DD K's and only 2er in 7ip loss vs MIL earlier in the year doesn't scare me away...

Burnes off the IL 5 and 6ip, very rusty ending his walkless streak with a monstrous 1 and 1 BB in those two starts. Hader had to work last night to get his save, but should be fine to go again here meaning 7 innings of nearly lights out pitching from MIL. Feyereisen gone still means Williams 8th, but not sure who takes the 7th if Burnes doesn't finish it. Boxberger worked b2b, but may still get the 7th as he's already worked b3b this season and is surely the trustworthy arm remaining after the trade.

SD pen solid at the back with Melancon, getting there is probably Stammen/Pagan/Johnson if four others are needed. Lineup got Myers and Hosmer back yesterday, major improvement from the scraps they were starting. Hiura's return helps after raking AAA, but still a very weak MIL lineup offering a decent price against
 
Greinke off two good starts in a row after a bit of a rut, LAD knows him and he knows them but i'm not as afraid of LAD as i have been in recent years. We'll see about Betts and Bellinger still a few days away.

Kershaw is great, but has had some poor outings this season. HOU is stacked with R so that will be tougher on Kershaw, who started the year on fire and then flip-flopped good and bad outings most recently with eyesores at home against MIA and on a cold day (if we're looking for excuses) at Wrigley.

LAD bullpen very deep, HOU looking like Pressly and still a lot of unsure around him. Stanek has been struggling with command lately, expect they'll add an arm via trade but that may be enough to keep me off since Greinke is an enigma and i don't like having the far worse bullpen even at home
 
Flaherty is awesome, been on fire and trust him until the StL bullpen gets going. Nobody throws consistent strikes, can't back that as it's bad for my health.

Giolito very good @ MIN, but has not been going deep in games. LaRussa killed Kopech for tonight having him go 2IP in a non-save situation, which speaks to how much of a dunce i think he is. That leaves Hendriks adrift at the end of the game, some good arms in the CHW bullpen but nobody that looks consistent enough to be trusted. Don't see Kopech going b2b days this season so he's near certainly down, suddenly the bullpen discrepancy isn't so bad.

Both lineups out, sad to see Carpenter in there even though DH so he won't kill them on both sides of the ball. Neither lineup is that dangerous, so this one feels a lot about CHW batting last. I think Flaherty outpitches Gio, but can the bullpen hold it?

StL currently priced 45% to win, feels like it should be closer to that coinflip i'm always looking at
 
Not sure i know Yang very well, but i do know Heaney. He is as inconsistent as they come. Really hard to know what we're gonna get from him, but I do know that i like to bet against that. I also like to bet against bad bullpens and even a fresh one here LAA is bad. Iglesias is far from trustworthy, but not sure how they're even gonna get the ball to him. Heaney has reached the 7th in 3 of 8 starts, so expect Iglesias and two others to have to get this done. Likely Mayers then Strickland or Watson, not perfect to say the least

Yang low K's is scary, 2 in his last start vs NYY only outdone by 0 in the one before that @ HOU. Tough spots, sure, but that's still not great. The 8 K outing vs MIN looks like it was in relief, so that was great but who knows the situation there. His bullpen after a short start may see another LHP Allard to eat some innings with another LHP Joely Rodriguez in the 8th before Kennedy. Not sure who else will be involved, but Sborz has been used a fair amount and balances with at least one RHP before Kennedy.

Lineups favor LAA even without Trout, first thought is Ohtani neutralized a little by a LHP but then Rendon to add another big threat from the opposite side of the plate. I think this one is too much of a longshot
 
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