Tuesday Discussion/Thoughts

Trueblue said:
i like the under and it's hard to disagree with you on rangers pitching... never know though, these two teams dont fuck around.. gl
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Thanks TB...if I had 10.5 still would have played...shitty part about baseball totals is lsong half runs is really losing a full run...

10.5 you get 10 or less to win and 10 you need 9 or less to win..but I'll be happy to see it hit regardless improves my chances of Rangers winning..

BOL:cheers:
 
Just quick update most of what I said last night holds true so far . No real changes in my opinions so far.

Want to see SFG lineup but really like SFG here....
 
Zona @ SFG :

- Home team does well in the series I believe taking 13 of 18 last year. Of course times have changed but Zona just 15-36 L 51 @ SFG.

-Zona mashes LHP and the fact they hit 175 away so far vs RHP is great but somewhat misleading. It was the 1st series of the year and somewhat cold in Cincy when they faced Harang , Arroyo and Cueto.

-John Bowker ? I seriously didnt know much about the kid till I saw his name in the lineup the other day. Read up real quick on him saw his numbers in the minors were very good and noticed he went LBST. Knowing he went a baseball powerhouse even in college helps you see the kid had potential. Anyway already taking grounders at 1st and he might see some action there. Real interested to see how that progresses and if its something they try now. With him at 1st and OF of Winn , Rowand and Lewis this lineup gets significantly better.

- Fred Lewis hitting leadoff is 10/19 L5 games but 6 doubles and a triple and 4 multi hit games in that span. Also very key is he and Bowker are LH which adds balance to Rowand and Molina in the middle .

- Durham , Winn and Castillo are 3 vets who have been medicore to date but have potential for solid seasons. It was only 2006 when Durham hit 26hrs with 93 rbis in 137 games. last year though he dropped from 293 to 218 with nly 11hrs and 73 rbis..plus Vizquels return is on the horizon and should be a plus if he can hit 2nd ...

- Today we get Velez at 2nd Base and Winn sits for Bowker with Ortmeier at 1st.

- Correria has been solid since he moved into the rotation late last year. His 07 home splits were solid and despite batting an illness that cost him about 10 pounds he managed to get off to a good start . He had 2 solid starts vs Arizona last season.

- Owings has been real solid but his dominance of RHB is why and LH have given him some headaches. Small sample but LH 287 vs RHB 107. Last year he had a 4.96 away ERA which is probably mainly due to his rough outing at SF which he followed witha CG 2 hiter the next time he saw them in Zona.

- Drew , Hudson , Burke and Young 15/92 in day games so far(160ish) and last year they hit just 238 in day games.

Expect a close game but think SF finds a way to win even though I dont trust its pen much...:shake:
 
Another LHP didnt make it very deep vs the WSox and one of my keys Carlos Quentin went yard for a 3 run jack. I thought it was gonna be Dye as the one who gets a 3run HR the inning before but he didnt. Still suprised how poorly Quentin has been in his short time in the majors vs LHP but that has to change for the former #1 pick. He was supposed to a stud in Zona and shocked they gave up on him so quickly..

Early still but 4-0 after 5 innings... and we saw in texas how quickly a 4 run lead evaporates...
 
Guys...please don't use "This team is in need of a win" ...or "This team really wants to win/needs wins" angles when capping your games

That is irrelevant in baseball!!!
 
Millwood just didnt have it today. In the 3rd gettin Vlad to hit into a DP I thought was a great sign but he lasted 69 pitches and 5 innings which he allowed 9 hits including 2 to Figgins who was previously 0-21. Edge flips to LAA now especially if Oliver pitches well but he will be tested if he is out there in the 6th inning...Josh Rupe...
 
Capt. Slap said:
Guys...please don't use "This team is in need of a win" ...or "This team really wants to win/needs wins" angles when capping your games

That is irrelevant in baseball!!!
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I disagree somewhat...cant use it every day but it definetly has its place..naturally the always want to win but good teams in need of a win is useful..saying bad teams need a win is somewhat different...think we saw the Yanks in a need of win yesterday getting one and starting quickly sort of was the product of it...pen blew it and they still won...

You are right though long season lots of ups and downs hard to apply that on a daily basis..:shake:
 
parlayed the under/sf ml, figured owings will hold his own while correia pitches like he's been there... public tilt on zona seems to indicate this..
 
SportsNut said:
Rangers -120 {2.25 units} -1.5 +170 {1/2U}
Wsox -110 {.75u} -1.5 +175 {.6u}
Rangers / WSox .5 u parlay....

GL all.....:cheers:
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Heh...basically had the exact same thing

Rangers 1.1 Units

White Sox 1 Unit

Rangers + White Sox parlayed together for .5 unit
 
SportsNut said:
I disagree somewhat...cant use it every day but it definetly has its place..naturally the always want to win but good teams in need of a win is useful..saying bad teams need a win is somewhat different...think we saw the Yanks in a need of win yesterday getting one and starting quickly sort of was the product of it...pen blew it and they still won...

You are right though long season lots of ups and downs hard to apply that on a daily basis..:shake:
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Well in my opinion there is absolutely no time in which you should say a team (other than maybe 4 or 5 of the ELITE teams - Sox, Yanks, etc.) are in need of a "must win" until the final 2 or 3 weeks of the season.

Especially when we're only 3 or 4 weeks into this season...

I just get irked when I see people say something like "This is a spot where the Rockies NEED a win"...that doesn't matter! The other team needs a win just as bad!

When you start letting things like this creep into your head, you stop capping games the correct way, and start making bets that you normally wouldn't (if you weren't thinking the whole...they need a win angle)

Just my two cents on that


Now, as far as the Yankees yesterday with the Devil Rays, yes, I took that into account when I bet them (that they wanted to start of the series right, this however did not effect my decision in betting the game)...

I know you're a Yankee fan, as I'm a Sox fan...we both know that these games in April don't matter too much, it's all about what happens after the All Star break...although the Stankees might be out of contention by then :pillow:
 
Good stuff Cap and I agree for the most part. Big thing with NY was finally playing a game when it wasnt 40 degrees . Sounds silly but most of them hate the cold even Damon was saying this is breaking ball weather. Then you check back and see NYY has a faced a ton of guys with good fastballs. Main reason why they have struggled on offense IMO cold weather and hard throwers not a great recipe. Then you watch a kid like Hughes out there on Sunday and has anyone EVER seen a pitch blow into his hands as much as Hughes did? Damn was that annoying to see it was cold but lets be real. So the only "excuse" I can offer for Hughes is last to struggles was the weather. Figure 21 year old kid just isnt used to . Just dont recall the weather at Stadium in his 1st start and to lazy to check. Seems to be something bothering him and he must learn to suck it up maybe hurts his curveball grip as well...

I am with ya on the must win situation though. Really shouldnt get into a habit of saying it or applying it. Streaks are long and plenty in MLB as we all know. Definetly felt it was a good spot for Texas to get a win . What can you do 4-0 after 3 seemed pretty good..


As for the rest I would have played the over @ SFG just based on the fact they keep throwing 7.5s out there and SF is scoring lately plus I dont trust there pen.

Thats about it real pissed about myself already and its only Tuesday...Sunday was best day of the season in MLB something like 14-5 and since Cle choked yesterday I have been terrible...and WSox were so easy but of couse I went bigger on Texas and SF....sloppiness kills...

Be Back later SFG down 3-0 already ...they are probably cooked....:cheers:
 
Every team I take just loves to piss away big innings...

Velez singles and with Rowand up CS...who needs to talk about Texas forget the fact they had 12 baserunners in 4 innings vs Mosely they had 2 men on the 6th , 7th , and 9th innings....CS on a wild pitch...Murphy doubles and whoever was ahead of him thrown out...just amazing...
 
yeah millwood was a letdown. Blew a 4-0 lead for heavens sake , that doesnt happen a ton in mlb , though more than we prolly like to admit. oh well i would bet it again i guess.

The other game went exactly as expected. Having not seen Danks or Eveland at all these two lineups couldnt do crapola. Think oakland had all of six hits and white sox all of 5 hits. Hit by pitch , walk ,3 run homerun was the only thing resembling a rally in the game ... a one hit rally at that. just fade these two teams against lefties and/or go under when they also have a good pitching matchup vs opponent. Wow did they both look bad at the plate today.
 
my baseball is weak. have to stick to nba. started off nicely but been getting burned over here of late.
 
Since I have posted all my "losing" plays so far mine as well tell ya went with Over 8.5 KC and 1st 5 over 5 +110..

Neither SP has gone past the 6th yet but have allowed at least 4 runs in each start.....KC has put together consecutive 5 run games and until Grienke came in the Ms were hitting...Greinke vs Washburn big difference in SP compared to Blae vs Batista..

Davis behind the dish seems to have high scoring games when he does KC or Sea games...6-2 Over in SEA games last 2 years and 2-0-1 last 2 for KC...the low scoring games were 8 , 9 , 9 with SP of Hernadez vs Rocket , Wang vs Weaver (NY 8-1 win 11 total and Garland v Elarton 5-4 game...)

Would like to think at some point this game is tied at 4....GL
 
Bunch of real small plays...

Jays -1.5 RL 1 unit
Tribe 2units

rest 3/4 units on Mets under , 1st 5 unders @ TB and Cle , plus nYY -120...
 
Thanks guys...happy to be of help especially after such early chaos on my part...

Also went with harang and cincy 1 unit and STL for 2 units with some on -1.5 RL...got distracted with the NBA didnt realize it was 8 already...

BOL
 
JPicks said:
Haven't been betting a ton of bases, but how is Pelfrey -160. I'll give him his one start at PHI, but in general that guy is horrible. He shouldn't be pitching in the bigs. Need to look at it more, but it seems a bet on either the Nats or the over should be in order. Like I said I'm square as a box in MLB, but that just seems like a huge # for a bad AAA pitcher.
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This post only confirms. :)
 
SportsNut said:
Good stuff Cap and I agree for the most part. Big thing with NY was finally playing a game when it wasnt 40 degrees . Sounds silly but most of them hate the cold even Damon was saying this is breaking ball weather. Then you check back and see NYY has a faced a ton of guys with good fastballs. Main reason why they have struggled on offense IMO cold weather and hard throwers not a great recipe. Then you watch a kid like Hughes out there on Sunday and has anyone EVER seen a pitch blow into his hands as much as Hughes did? Damn was that annoying to see it was cold but lets be real. So the only "excuse" I can offer for Hughes is last to struggles was the weather. Figure 21 year old kid just isnt used to . Just dont recall the weather at Stadium in his 1st start and to lazy to check. Seems to be something bothering him and he must learn to suck it up maybe hurts his curveball grip as well...

I am with ya on the must win situation though. Really shouldnt get into a habit of saying it or applying it. Streaks are long and plenty in MLB as we all know. Definetly felt it was a good spot for Texas to get a win . What can you do 4-0 after 3 seemed pretty good..


As for the rest I would have played the over @ SFG just based on the fact they keep throwing 7.5s out there and SF is scoring lately plus I dont trust there pen.

Thats about it real pissed about myself already and its only Tuesday...Sunday was best day of the season in MLB something like 14-5 and since Cle choked yesterday I have been terrible...and WSox were so easy but of couse I went bigger on Texas and SF....sloppiness kills...

Be Back later SFG down 3-0 already ...they are probably cooked....
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Interesting stuff with Hughes and the Yanks as a whole...I think weather is something we overlook as a whole at times (most of these guys have just played ball for 2 straight months in 80+ degree weather)

Regarding the Giants...it's similar too the Tigers I guess...keep betting against them (in the Giants case betting with them overs)

One thing is that baseball is a game even Vegas can't cap...sure they can throw out -200 ML's and scare us off the teams we think are going to win, but if we continue to play the games the way we think they should go, we will win

I know atleast in my case I start to struggle when I start questioning certain plays too much...

Baseball is something that you can definitely hit 65 - 70% at....it just depends where you pick and choose your spots and what kind of juice your hittin (obviously)

Anyways, most of us (including u SN) know this but I enjoyed typing it over again because it reminded me to just breathe and keep doin what I've ben doin
 
No problem Capt...we all can use reminders...

padres 1st 5 inn and game plu s-1.5 RL

Col struggling vs LHP and Jiminez struggling with command 22 baserunners in 11 innings...SD edge in the pen and home at even money...oh yeah how bout some revenge by COL for ending there season in the 1 game playoff...1st % has alot value IMO......
 
JPicks said:
This post only confirms. :)
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nah value and price are two just different things. Like Capt said sometimes they are just looking to price out of games. Nats in a major funk of late and despite wining 5-4 they left about 110 men on base. Pelfey while I agree is barely a ML SP he hasnt struggled in his limited starts at Shea in his short career. NY losing 2 straight and thats when the good teams tend to step up....would I ever lay sucha price with Pelfrey...uhm no ...but baseball is funny ...look at Philly...:shake:
 
Can I tell you how much I hate the CLE pen.....thats now 2 days they ouldnt hold leads and cost me 2 units plays and also had them as part ofa 4 team parlay though would have needed LAD to finish it..
 
SportsNut said:
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Bush's past 2 years you can see the night and day difference depending on if he was Home or Away.

Think STL starting lineup is 14 for 48 off him with Yadier Molina hitting 3 Hrs and thats thanks to Miles being 0-8. Who could give way to Izturis who is 3-10.

Braden Looper is much the same...his ERA actually doubles on the road..

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So really cant weigh that heavily his last 2 starts vs Milw IMO...Also he was amazing day starts but one would think alot of his day starts were at home and his night starts away...

Just throwing it out there...
Click to expand...


Finally got one right today !! Cards win 6-1 ...
 
wolf was amazing. rockies cant hit lefties for doo doo.

good call on the padres senor nut. dont think i can jinx that score.
 
Thanks VK. Definetly a last minute play. Never looked it at it till about 20 minutes before start...nice to end on a strong note after a slow start on the day but the damn Indians cost me at least a 10 unit swing tonight... woulda probably been like +15 units had they won...

Taveras and Tulowitzki are killing them so far and the half of there middle of the lineup is LHs with Helton and Hawpe putting the pressure solely on Holliday and Atkins. Who would of thought Matsui loss would be so huge ...2nd B an offensive black hole making them real weak 6 to 9...and really 6 to the #2 hitter once the game starts....at some point those guys will heat up but even money was tough to pass up even though I went to bed liking Colorado..

Jiminez had one bad inning where he walks finally caught up to him with the help of the error ...
 
It was gonna be hard to win anyway i suppose ... Wolf was dominant ... i think i have underrated this guy. He is pitching well and his numbers from last year are not bad at all either. Imagine if the padres had any lineup at all to go with their pitching ... they would be incredible... but alas they dont.
 
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