Tuesday Discussion/Thoughts

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=blk-title colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Tue 7/31</TD></TR><TR class=wht-title bgColor=#16177c><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD noWrap>Run Line</TD><TD noWrap>Money Line</TD><TD noWrap>Total Runs</TD><TD>More </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>951</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Cincinnati Reds
B LIVINGSTON</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Offline </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Offline </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Offline <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>952</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Washington Nationals
M. Chico <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Offline </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Offline </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Offline </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>953</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Colorado Rockies
A. Cook</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -216 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-104 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>954</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Florida Marlins
S. Olsen <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +196 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-104 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9 -105 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>955</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>St Louis Cardinals
A. Wainwright</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +144 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-107 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 8.5 -101 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>956</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Pittsburgh Pirates
P. Maholm <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -154 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-101 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 8.5 -109 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>957</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Houston Astros
C. Sampson</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -140 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+152 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9.5 +104 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>958</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Atlanta Braves
C. James <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +130 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-160 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9.5 -114 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>959</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New York Mets
T. Glavine</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +146 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-107 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9 -111 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>960</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Milwaukee Brewers
J. Suppan <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -156 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-101 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9 +101 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>961</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Philadelphia Phillies
A. Eaton</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+117 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>962</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Chicago Cubs
J. Marquis <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-125 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>963</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Arizona D-Backs
B. Webb</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +146 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-114 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 7 -110 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>964</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>San Diego Padres
J. Germano <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -156 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+106 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 7 +100 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>965</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>San Francisco Giants
N. Lowry</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -151 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+156 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 7.5 -112 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>966</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Los Angeles Dodgers
B. Penny <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +141 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-164 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 7.5 +102 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>967</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Chicago White Sox
J Contreras</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+185 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 10.5 -107 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>968</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New York Yankees
M. Mussina <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-201 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 10.5 -103 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>969</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Baltimore Orioles
E. Bedard</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -161 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+135 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 8 -106 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>970</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Boston Red Sox
J. Beckett <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +151 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-143 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 8 -104 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>971</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Texas Rangers
B. McCarthy</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+200 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9.5 +101 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>972</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Cleveland Indians
F. Carmona <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-218 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9.5 -111 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>973</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Toronto Blue Jays
J. Litsch</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +131 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-117 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 10 +100 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>974</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Tampa Bay Devil Rays
E Jackson <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -141 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+109 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 10 -110 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>975</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Kansas City Royals
J. De La Rosa</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -149 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+140 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9.5 +100 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>976</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Minnesota Twins
C. Silva <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +139 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-148 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9.5 -110 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>977</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>LAA Angels
J. Lackey</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +125 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-130 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 8.5 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>978</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Seattle Mariners
JEF. Weaver <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -135 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+122 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 8.5 -105 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Tue 7/31</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>979</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Detroit Tigers
J. Verlander</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -216 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-102 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 7.5 -107 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>980</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Oakland Athletics
D. Haren <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +196 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-106 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 7.5 -103 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Been delving into the Phils/Cubs Over.....

Phils/Eaton combo is 13-6-2 to Over on the season (28.5% Unders)
Cubs/Marquis combo is 8-4-2 to Over last 14 (28.5% Unders)


Philly is 12-3 to Over in game 2s after winning game 1 this season
Philly is 8-2-1 to Over their last 11 game 2s.


Eaton - O/U 7-0-1, ERA 6.50, WHIP 1.57, his last 8 starts
Eaton - O/U 5-2-1, ERA 5.74, WHIP 1.51, his last 8 road starts


Marquis - O/U 3-1-1, ERA 5.90, WHIP 1.47, avg 7.83 runs support, in his last 5 home starts before which the Cubs lost his previous start (lost to STL last time out)
Marquis - O/U 4-1-1, ERA 6.35, WHIP 1.47, last 6 starts
Marquis - ERA 4.76, WHIP 2.91, in 2 starts vs Philly last season


Cubs are 12-4-1 to Under in game 2s after losing game 1 this season. In their 11 wins in this spot, they have conceded an average of 1.27 runs (8 times holding an opponent to 1 run or less). In their 6 losses, they've conceded an average of 5.83 runs (only once holding an opponent to less than 4 runs).

Ump is 6-5 to Over for totals 9.0 or more, about what could be expected here for a decent wind blowing out.
 
Very first thoughts would be Reds first half, Seattle ml, and Atlanta RL. Real negatives to all 3. Washington is the better team, Lackey is 8-3 on the road this year, and Sampson rarely loses on the road by 2 and James is only 4-5 at home with 2 1 run wins. I see compensation in all 3 for the negatives but more study is required in all. I am going to talk a little about Anaheim. This team was in a pathetic 3-7 collapse then they won a pitifully played 7-6 avoid the sweep game vs Oakland and Blanton. Then they ran into a Detroit team going thru a major breakdown and beat them 3 in a row scoring 10 or more and winning by an average margin of 8. Reality just came back with a Seattle team that really does not like them at all and has only 3 less wins on the year then they do. Seattle last 10 at home is 7-3 while Anaheim on the road is 3-7. Lackey last 3 starts went 18 innings and gave up 11 runs. Lifetime at Seattle he is 5-5. I have made no bets yet and with Atlanta and Anaheim will not bet until I see the umpires. Any bet with Cinn if I can get as much as 15 cents first half I will take on sight. GL
 
Weaver is 0-3 since his team won 5 outta 6 he pitched in. I am willing to believe that was an abomination, and his current form is much more to his nature.

Angles are 10-7 in game 2's of a road series. They are 6-3 in game 2's if game one was a Loss. They are also 4-1 after being shutout. in the last 10, excluding tonights game as the numbers aren't added to covers yet, the angles are hitting 342 against righthanders to seattles 242. On the season the angles still have an 11 point edge in this situation. The mariners do have some success against Lackey when looking over this year and last, and since weaver has bounced around, hard to drum up his numbers vs anyone easily. It's his old team, maybe he remembers something.

haven't bet anything yet, and the number appears to be rising, I will see where it sits tomorrow. I am liking the st louis under also. these 2 usually play to a great deal of unders.
 
Slim, your arguments about game 2 and Angels after a shutout are perfectly reasonable. You are making a mistake I believe in your conclusions about Weavers last 3 starts. Weaver had been pitching a very high level and then because of the break he had to sit for 9 days messing up his rhythm, play a day game where he is definitely weak against a great hitting Detroit team. We now hear an egg hitting a hard surface SPLATT. The next game back on normal rest and at night he went 8 innings and gave up 1 run. The last game he was at home against Oakland at night and he went 7.1 innings and gave up 3 runs which most people would consider to be a high quality start so we have 1 disaster brought on by pitching in the day with his rhythm off because of the break where he popped, a super start that still lost and a high quality start that also lost. He may very well lose tomorrow as well but the odds are he pitches a fine game for 1 of the 4 most profitable teams to bet on in baseball and that seems like a good investment to me since It seems to me to be a long time since Anaheim has played good baseball. By the way does anyone remember who won the World Series last year in game 5 going 8 innings and giving up 1 earned run. Probably not so I can easily see why the prospect of betting on Mr Weaver is so frightening.
 
Last edited:
Seattle has now gone 25 home games without losing by 1-2 runs. they are 12-0 in games decided by 1-2 runs over that span.
 
since May 18th, Toronto...

- is 1-11 SU on the road after a road win

- is 13-7 SU on the road after a road loss


Toronto is 7-0-2 to Under their last 9 road games, avg 2.55 team runs/game.

In their last 38 losses (from May 4th), Toronto has scored more than 4 runs just twice, both times totaling 5 runs.
During this time, Toronto is 22-0 SU when scoring 6 runs or more (home or away).

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the All star break, Houston...

- is 1-7 SU in their 8 Over results

- is 6-2 SU in their 8 Under results.
 
I kind of like the run line of the dodgers game.. Penny is dominant and the giants suck.

I like beckett tonight too, he pitches well against the orioles

I also like Cook and the rockies to hammer away on olsen and the marlins
 
im hoping i can start betting on a boston team with Dye and Gagne on it.. or 1 of the above works
 
Excellent discussion on my two favorite teams' clash at Safeco (I like Seattle more though ;)), I just can't make myself bet anything here. Both Slim and Tuck have excellent points, and that's pretty much the story of how much of a coin toss this game really is...

Leaning Seattle but can't go against Lackey at this point, especially since the Angels are showing signs of life again.

Strongly leaning Boston with Beckett, and even though it doesn't seem to be the "sharpest play in the shed" I do like Verlander a lot today against Haren.

Oakland is on a serious decline, they just can't break out of their slump, even though whenever I decided to bet against them they scored at least 3 in the first 2 innings. It does make sense Haren is a fav at home, but I like Detroit here.
 
tuck, excellent points also. I remember when he came over to my beloved cardinals last year. Two quick overs if memory serves. Then Weaver calmed down and pitched very well in the post season. I listened to the post game last night and the announcers were talking about Jef and his change in mechanics. Maybe he can sustain it. 2 of the last 3 were very good starts, but I am of the opinion he can't sustain this form for the duration. Maybe he will. I'm laying off this one because I don't like the Seattle Batters #'s against Lackey in the past couple years, and I don't like his numbers the last 3 starts, even tho 2 were wins (17 ip, 24h, 14r, 11er).
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Been delving into the Phils/Cubs Over.....

Phils/Eaton combo is 13-6-2 to Over on the season (28.5% Unders)
Cubs/Marquis combo is 8-4-2 to Over last 14 (28.5% Unders)


Philly is 12-3 to Over in game 2s after winning game 1 this season
Philly is 8-2-1 to Over their last 11 game 2s.


Eaton - O/U 7-0-1, ERA 6.50, WHIP 1.57, his last 8 starts
Eaton - O/U 5-2-1, ERA 5.74, WHIP 1.51, his last 8 road starts


Marquis - O/U 3-1-1, ERA 5.90, WHIP 1.47, avg 7.83 runs support, in his last 5 home starts before which the Cubs lost his previous start (lost to STL last time out)
Marquis - O/U 4-1-1, ERA 6.35, WHIP 1.47, last 6 starts
Marquis - ERA 4.76, WHIP 2.91, in 2 starts vs Philly last season


Cubs are 12-4-1 to Under in game 2s after losing game 1 this season. In their 11 wins in this spot, they have conceded an average of 1.27 runs (8 times holding an opponent to 1 run or less). In their 6 losses, they've conceded an average of 5.83 runs (only once holding an opponent to less than 4 runs).

Ump is 6-5 to Over for totals 9.0 or more, about what could be expected here for a decent wind blowing out.
Click to expand...

A good receipt for Cubs TT over.
 
husky17 said:
im hoping i can start betting on a boston team with Dye and Gagne on it.. or 1 of the above works
Click to expand...

Settle for Gagne because I think Dye is out of the question.

Beckett/Dice-K start + Gagne middle + Papelbon close = SICK!!!

I'm on the Rockies with you... Cook been sharp, Olsen is a waste.

I have no doubt that Penny will dominate SF, but that is too expensive and I'm not a fan of the RL.

GL husky
 
Blue Chip, my problem currently with that is Philly have so many critical injuries to their lineup (Victorino, Utley, Bourn) that its just that kind of thing to put the breaks on their scoring ways that have been prevalent since the AS break. As Jack said above, I think the way to go here would be probably Cubs TT Over, but neither of my books offer that shit.
 
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