I went there lol
Tua +800 Heisman
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I went there lol
Didn‘t you yourself say mop-up duty?
I mean there was the sweet pick six in the blowout vs UT. He didn‘t do anything vs LSU or Aubbie as far as I recall.
Either way, can‘t take someone seriously who calls it a runaway based on so little. Could easily make the same cause for Lawrence (beast Spring game) or Haskins (stepped in vs Mich)...not to mention more proven QB‘s like Trace
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Yes, Tua entered into games much earlier than previous backups, and was also given more of the playbook to work from than previous years. I think it would be safe to say that the coaching staff was pretty aware of what they had and wanted him to get starter worthy as quickly as possible, even if possibly meant slowing Jalen's progress. If you remember from last season, a certain HC at FAU was tweeting about how special Tua was from the very beginning
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I'm telling you that if Tua stays healthy, he'll win the Heisman in a landslide. So if you want to win money on a Heisman wager, bet on Tua. If you want to lose money, bet on someone else. And if you chose to characterize a winning wager as "fanboy hype," that's certainly your prerogative. But in the same vein, it is my prerogative to laugh at you hysterically behind your back.
At no point in the title game did Georgia play “prevent.” That lazy rhetoric needs to stop, it was no more than a 2 score game in the 2h and Bama’s last 3 drives went TD/missed chip shot fg/TD. Can’t argue sample size against Tua when the point is efficiency with him in the game.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
"Prevent" is sort of an overarching term anytime a defense is keying on the pass. Is nickle prevent? Is dime prevent? On the last play of the game, when it was like 2nd and 26, Georgia had a two deep safety look which is generally considered to be a scheme designed to stop the big play. And the fact that Tua hit that pass against a defense that is designed to stop just that type of play is what has the experts raving about Tua.
The other thing that seems to get overlooked here is that Tua didn't do what he did against Fresno State. He came in the game cold, and did it against one of the top defenses in the nation. So when Tua faces Louisville, he'll face a defense significantly worse than what he faced in the national championship game, and what he sees in practice everyday. I suspect Tua and the Bama offense will pretty much do whatever they want against Louisville. I don't see Alabama's punter getting much work in this one.
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
bumping this thread because it is looking pretty good (not jinxing)
is there any value in a hedge here. its gonna be Tua who his now -200, Haskins who is now +200 or Murray who is now +250....I really don't think anyone else has a shot, were far enough into the season that there isn't time left for someone to come out of nowhere.
I got this at +775, just 100 to win 775. Any sense in hedging here? I'm a little worried about Tua's injury, and if he doesn't play this week or plays one series or something and Oklahoma puts up 50+ in Purdue this could shift, no? Just wanted to bump this; no matter how you put it it was a great thread to get the guy at +800 and now have it at -200 just wanted to see if anyone is hedging this at all
is there any value in a hedge here. its gonna be Tua who his now -200, Haskins who is now +200 or Murray who is now +250....I really don't think anyone else has a shot, were far enough into the season that there isn't time left for someone to come out of nowhere.
I got this at +775, just 100 to win 775. Any sense in hedging here? I'm a little worried about Tua's injury, and if he doesn't play this week or plays one series or something and Oklahoma puts up 50+ in Purdue this could shift, no? Just wanted to bump this; no matter how you put it it was a great thread to get the guy at +800 and now have it at -200 just wanted to see if anyone is hedging this at all
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
yeah, Oklahoma has a loss so that has to count for something, also not sure that the voters are gonna want to set a precedent that Lincoln Riley's qb is gonna win this every year. I was real pissed when OSU pulled it out against Penn State. Barring a health issue, I do think we are good here but Tuas injury and Sabans usage of him is really all that is stopping this
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
He didn't look limited at all in the practice videos I've seen. He's wearing a knee brace, but no limp that I could detect. I doubt there will be any designed runs for him this week
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
what do we think? if we previously bet 1 u to win 7.75u on tua, is it worth it at all to bet 1 to win 5u on Murray? Its basically a 2 horse race, and logically there is no contest, but there are some dumb narratives going around, such as Tua doesn't have a "Heisman moment" which is because his team is up by 40 every week, but people seem to be looking for crap like that.
or do we just let it all ride?
or do we just let it all ride?
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
He's going to carve up that Georgia secondary simply because that d-line is going to let Tua get really comfortable in the pocket.
Think you're holding the winning ticket on Tua, Dan, so I'd probably let it ride.
But in spots like this if I do hedge (and feel I'm holding the winning ticket), I would 0.2 units @ +500 on Murray to at least make sure I don't lose my original bet. Then if it's the 2-horse race you think it is (and I agree), you either break even or win 7.55 units.
Much smaller price to pay for a hedge if I feel like I've got the winning ticket.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I'm not even a future's bettor, but I max bet Tua @ +1400 everywhere I could before the season began. Like I sad above before the season began, if you aren't betting on Tua, you're just throwing money away. Without question the easiest +1400 wager I have ever seen.
:beerdrink:
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
About everything that could go wrong for Tua happened on Saturday while Murray obviously had a huge day.
If Sean McDonough was correct and only 10% of the ballots had been cast as of last Friday, Murray is going to win the Trophy.
If Sean McDonough was correct and only 10% of the ballots had been cast as of last Friday, Murray is going to win the Trophy.
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Bravo to the voters who waited. why not see an entire body of work of the entire season before sending in the ballot? it always puzzled me in the past why a large contingency of voters would send in their ballots when there were still 1 or 2 games left in the season.
KYLER
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Yeah, I never figured that one out. If you're entrusted to vote just let the full body of work unfold before doing so.
right. unless you're taking a trip to Zimbabwe and are concerned you will miss the last game or two, why send it in. and even then, in today's age with all the online media, you can be on Mars and still get games streamed or at least read recaps. absolutely NO EXCUSE for voting early. i don't even vote early in elections. what if something comes up in the days leading to election day that can sway me? these are important decisions and should be looked at with as much info as humanly possible. turning in heisman ballots before the season is complete is just irresponsible IMO
Welp....now I'm regretting this
Yeah, I think it is actually pretty anticlimactic at this point. And that is amazing when you think about how things were just a few weeks ago.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Hope Tua keeps climbing. Body of work shows Tua throwing good numbers on better defenses. I'll take a stab at some plus money.
Might as well wait till Friday or so.
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
a 2 loss QB shouldn't win this. I really do believe its Kyler or Tua. I am completely biased bc I was in on tua with the rest of this thread, but if kyler wins, it is such a sham. might as well just award the trophy to oklahomas qb before the season starts every year. not only does that conference play no defense, but oklahomas defense sucks too so kyler is playing every snap of every quarter to keep up.
I did put 3 units on kyler at -120 the other day, to go along with my .5 units on him at +500, so im set with locked in profit but it is ashame that it came to this; tua had it in the bag
I did put 3 units on kyler at -120 the other day, to go along with my .5 units on him at +500, so im set with locked in profit but it is ashame that it came to this; tua had it in the bag
I agree Haskins shouldn't win it either but he does only have 1 loss....I think it's a toss up at this point. I know what I want (my Tua +875 or my Haskins +3000) but the big stage of the Georgia/Bama game I'm guessing made too much of an impact in the wrong direction for a bunch of schmucks about to cast votes.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I'm thinking about hedging. Been watching the odds closely, but there is no question Murray has a chance to pull out the 11th hour win.
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
I saw a tweet the other day that showed that the actual defenses they played are comparable, but the two
yup. I bit. no reason to not guarantee myself a solid win. def feels like kyler has the momentum too
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
If a Heisman voter liked Murray prior to Saturday, I have no problem with them casting their vote for Murray. I can certainly respect that. But anyone changed their vote based on last Saturday's performances, then yes, they are a schmuck and should have their voting privileges revoked for having a low football IQ.
Murray faced a bottom tier Texas defense, while Tua played an elite college defense loaded with NFL talent . . . and was playing injured, and eventually got knocked out of the game entirely. It is an apples/oranges comparison, and if anyone with a vote cannot distinguish between the two, they have no business voting.
it's the body of work which should include every single game just like the committee does each year to find the 4 they believe deserve the playoff spots, and you simply cannot find one poor game that Kyler had the entire season, no matter who they played. in a race this tight, what happened last saturday should absolutely be material to the analysis of both players, and how each voter weighs it is on said voter. the real schmucks are the ones who turned in their ballots early before seeing all games play out.
KYLER now -210 on 5dimes
TUA now +180
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
No question he has the momentum, and the University of Alabama doesn't seem to be doing much to push Tua.
yes, the most even race we have had in many years. and what makes it even tougher to choose is that both kids are extremely likable as people. i am obviously a Sooner fan, but if Kyler has to lose this, I want it going to Tua because i love watching the kid play and his attitude and demeanor is just fantastic. i hope he stays at Bama for the entirety and does not leave early. more TUA in college is selfishly great for all of us fans
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
No kidding.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
I hate OU, as I should being a Texas grad. But all year Tua had the luxury of a great defense. He was under no pressure to score points in most cases. Hats off to him for doing so but Murray faced an entirely different dynamic. Every possession, with that crap defense, was a must score for OU. Punting was not an option. Every time Murray dropped back or scrambled it was a necessity that it be successful. Helluva lot of pressure to be handling all season.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I really don't have an issue with Murray winning. It would be difficult to argue he's not worthy. My problem with the recent trend toward Murray is that it came on the heals of the most irrelevant Heisman week of the season. If a Heisman voter liked Murray before last Saturday, I have no issue with them sticking to their guns. My issue is with the lame brains who are changing their votes from Tua to Murray based on what transpired on Saturday. That, in my opinion, is patently absurd!
And while your point is well taken, the counter argument is that Tua has accumulated his stat line against much better defenses. So while the pressure to perform definitely weighs in Murray's favor, he was generally having to perform against lesser defensive talent. Even lowly Tennessee has a higher ranked defense than a team like Texas - a team who ostensibly provided him his Heisman moment.
They didn't play an elite defense all year.
And Tua's injuries and Nick's protecting him with the snap count hurts him in this race.
Honestly, I have no dog in the fight....just think it's a fascinating discussion with arguments that can be made for both guys in so many different ways.
And I know I'm in the minority here, but Haskins being in this discussion is a flat out joke. You can't knock Murray's numbers and say they're video game numbers, when Urb is running up the score with late TDs any chance he gets 1. because he's a jerk and 2. because he wants to make his players' stats look better. Haskins shouldn't have even been invited to NY. I'm just not that impressed with him as a player.
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