Tua +800 Heisman

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raems

Pretty much a regular
We're about to see Bama run an offense about as potent as Baker last year and Mariota in 2014.

Hurts was literally incapable of completing forward passes and did not attempt to make any reads. It reached a point where the offense did not even ask him to make reads since they knew he was incapable.

With 5 stars everywhere, an experienced O line, and no primary go-to running back, it's all set up for Tua to coast. Everything I've seen suggests this guy is not only an upgrade to Hurts, but easily Saban's best quarterback, and probably the biggest QB upgrade in the entire country. This offense will absolutely destroy everybody in their wake, and you know Bama's good for enough wins to "qualify" him.

I think this one will be in the bag by mid-October. 8pm opening night ESPN game + a game at Ole Miss early on, more than enough chances for him to shine. This team will just score 50-60 points every game without even intending to embarass opponents.

Bama ATS / TT Over / Full Game Over against Louisville is the play too, along with a First Half ATS / Over play. It's going to take the book time to catch up to Bama having this good an offense, they've never had anything close to it under Saban.
 
I agree with you on how good the O will be with Tua at the controls.

Disagree on the running backs though. They have two of the best running backs in football. I doubt there has ever been a team in history with two RBs in the same backfield, both ranked #1 in the country in their recruiting years. Damien Harris has the highest YPC average in school history and Najee Harris is so good the played more than Damien in clutch time in the national title game.

I think they have the best backfield in the country and both are going to run wild with Tua at the controls.

I love the running game so I'm looking forward to watching Bama this year.
 
I agree with Tahoe. Bama always has a great commitee of running backs and a strong o-line in front of them. Yes Tua will make the O stronger by stretching the field with his vertical passing ability but I think this will still be a run-first team. I‘d rather, for a heisman qb, look at somebody who will be the undoubted leader of his offense, someone like Trace McSorley who is a prolific slinger but doesn‘t have a star running back. He‘s the star of his O, Tua is not
 
TahoeLegend said:
I agree with you on how good the O will be with Tua at the controls.

Disagree on the running backs though. They have two of the best running backs in football. I doubt there has ever been a team in history with two RBs in the same backfield, both ranked #1 in the country in their recruiting years. Damien Harris has the highest YPC average in school history and Najee Harris is so good the played more than Damien in clutch time in the national title game.

I think they have the best backfield in the country and both are going to run wild with Tua at the controls.

I love the running game so I'm looking forward to watching Bama this year.
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Oh they’re monsters - my point is there isn’t a Derrick Henry who’s getting 30 carries a game and soaking up the Heisman hype.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I agree with Tahoe. Bama always has a great commitee of running backs and a strong o-line in front of them. Yes Tua will make the O stronger by stretching the field with his vertical passing ability but I think this will still be a run-first team. I‘d rather, for a heisman qb, look at somebody who will be the undoubted leader of his offense, someone like Trace McSorley who is a prolific slinger but doesn‘t have a star running back. He‘s the star of his O, Tua is not
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I think you guys are underestimating the ceiling Hurts set. Teams played them in single high all year and he literally couldn’t complete passes 20 yards downfield. I expect Tua to open the offense up sideline to sideline and for them to score TD’s at a historic %’s of their total drives. That’s something voters haven’t seen at Bama ever before and will be impressed by.

I could obviously be wrong, but feel the talent will win out here.
 
+800 for a guy that hasn't even been named the full time starter yet seems awfully poor value IMO. Not sure where you should set the line but it needs to be double digits.

We all agree he has the talent, but he's definitely not as much lock to win the Heisman as that line suggests.

And fwiw, Matt Womack broke his foot and needs surgery, so that's 1 OL that is out for extended time, if not the whole season.
 
He’s won the starting role, everybody reporting on practices + Hurts’s tone already implies that.

Certainly fair that betting a preseason favorite isn’t value. I just think he’s gonna win it going away, obviously in a minority there.
 
I agree with you, think +800 will look like stealing by late September as well
 
raems said:
I think you guys are underestimating the ceiling Hurts set. Teams played them in single high all year and he literally couldn’t complete passes 20 yards downfield. I expect Tua to open the offense up sideline to sideline and for them to score TD’s at a historic %’s of their total drives. That’s something voters haven’t seen at Bama ever before and will be impressed by.

I could obviously be wrong, but feel the talent will win out here.
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Why not take Haskins tho at +1600 double the payout? Its the same concept isn‘t it in replacing Barrett
 
raems said:
He’s won the starting role, everybody reporting on practices + Hurts’s tone already implies that.

Certainly fair that betting a preseason favorite isn’t value. I just think he’s gonna win it going away, obviously in a minority there.
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+800 is pretty nice I think you‘re being quite reasonable (tho I disagree lol)
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Why not take Haskins tho at +1600 double the payout? Its the same concept isn‘t it in replacing Barrett
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Haskins completely reasonable too, just think the Urban situation + schedule is significantly less favorable. Also Barrett was not the train wreck that Hurts is, Hurts is literally complete garbage.
 
Bama ATS / TT Over / Full Game Over against Louisville is the play too, along with a First Half ATS / Over play.

Funny, Bama 1H and UL team under should also be top plays. UL's new QB is going to be totally overwhelmed. I predict 31-0 at the half, 52-6 in the opener.
 
P-Unit said:
+800 for a guy that hasn't even been named the full time starter yet seems awfully poor value IMO. Not sure where you should set the line but it needs to be double digits.

We all agree he has the talent, but he's definitely not as much lock to win the Heisman as that line suggests.

And fwiw, Matt Womack broke his foot and needs surgery, so that's 1 OL that is out for extended time, if not the whole season.
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Womack wasn’t going to be the starter anyway. Got beat out by Alex Leatherwood. At least this injury should keep his loudmouth dad from spouting off on Twitter
 
You make a good point P-Unit. Now that I think back Tua looked great on his good plays, but he also made some really bad plays, is only a sophomore with zero starts, and has never played in a game where the D-coordinators had time to prepare specifically for him.

I think he is the real thing--that last pass in the title game was as good as any QB I saw all season--but I can see where he may have some ups and downs.

Overall, with the schedule Bama has and the talent he has around him I think he will be a breakout star.
 
TahoeLegend said:
You make a good point P-Unit. Now that I think back Tua looked great on his good plays, but he also made some really bad plays, is only a sophomore with zero starts, and has never played in a game where the D-coordinators had time to prepare specifically for him.

I think he is the real thing--that last pass in the title game was as good as any QB I saw all season--but I can see where he may have some ups and downs.

Overall, with the schedule Bama has and the talent he has around him I think he will be a breakout star.
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No doubt whatsoever about the talent. He has it in spades. But it's a long season and he has no starts to his resume. My thinking is even though he does have the talent, Bama has so much around him that they will play it safe until necessary with him and let the more experienced skill players handle the load. Plus, he looked like a god last yr. vs. a prevent defense all half. What does he look like vs. a normal set? I just think it's a bit premature to think he can be the best player in college football when he has 1 half of playing time under his belt.
 
gps_3 said:
Womack wasn’t going to be the starter anyway. Got beat out by Alex Leatherwood. At least this injury should keep his loudmouth dad from spouting off on Twitter
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the whole family can get fucked

can't stand that kid or Daddy
 
P-Unit said:
No doubt whatsoever about the talent. He has it in spades. But it's a long season and he has no starts to his resume. My thinking is even though he does have the talent, Bama has so much around him that they will play it safe until necessary with him and let the more experienced skill players handle the load. Plus, he looked like a god last yr. vs. a prevent defense all half. What does he look like vs. a normal set? I just think it's a bit premature to think he can be the best player in college football when he has 1 half of playing time under his belt.
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He was making throws against Georgia playing two deep that Hurts never even considered making against Georgia playing single high. I think you guys are underestimating the fact that if Bama just has an accurate, strong armed quarterback who can challenge defenses from sideline to sideline, the raw stats he’ll put up factoring in YAC since every one of his targets is going to better than their respective defenders on every single throw. “Safe” play calls with Tua can still go for 75 yards. For example if you just call a 6 yard slant on 3rd and 5, Jeudy Foster and Co. will get enough separation almost ALL of the time to not only pick up the first down but get 10-20 YAC or even house it if safeties take bad angles.

I generally think Bama will have a big play offense this year if you guys can’t tell.
 
Again, I think you guys are severely undervaluing how bad Hurts is. He’s literally not a passing quarterback. he didn’t make reads and only threw passes downfield after he saw receivers visibly open for multiple seconds at a time. With a guy like Tua who can throw guys open, isn’t gunshy, and is accurate downfield, even if you take it slow and easy the possibilities are endless with this line and these weapons.
 
Tua is the real deal.

Most people only know him from the 2h of the 'ship game.

He played a lot last season in 2nd halves. I've been on the bandwagon since the end of his HS days.

Now, the value here is very low. That would be my issue with the bet being placed now when numbers were much better all spring and summer. Just like with Haskins. All the value is gone except us crazies that played it back in the spring.

Good luck though, we definitely have the same mentality regarding their totals etc this year.
 
Not relevant to my point but can't forget Tua throwing that pick-six vs Tennessee where that asshole then flicked us off grrr

But I think you kind of say it yourself, he won't be the centerpiece of the offense, not the guy who takes over games on a day to day basis. I don't see how Hurts is relevant to this at all. Point is that you're right that Tua gives a defense more to account for because he can stretch the field. Gotta remember though that Georgia's D didn't game plan for Tua (same kind of deal with Ian Book in the bowl game vs LSU) and otherwise, like BAR said, all else we'd seen of him is mop up duty or against trash opponents. Maybe he's worth comparing to AJ Mccarron. In looking at the recent list of quarterbacks (and players overall) they've all been very flashy in their play style, with a dual-threat component. Mariota, Winston, Lamar Jackson, famous Jameis, Johnny football... I think Tua will be solid for Bama.
 
Just opinion but I see virtually no comparison between Tua and McCarron

He's gonna pop me thinks, early and often and will make them possibly the most dynamic Bama team offensively in the Saban era
 
They will win games and he will put up numbers and he plays for Alabama. Assuming he doesn't get injured, he will be in the discussion. They also have one of the easiest schedules in Alabama history.
 
RetroVK said:
They will win games and he will put up numbers and he plays for Alabama. Assuming he doesn't get injured, he will be in the discussion. They also have one of the easiest schedules in Alabama history.
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The schedule is why I don’t think Tua will win. I don’t expect him to be passing very much in the 2nd half of many games. His stats will be well below recent QBs that have won Heismsn trophies. Plus Damien/Najee Harris are both high quality RBs with a coach that values shortening games. With Tua, defenses won’t be as willing to put 8/9 in the box as they have when Jalen was QB. I do think the WR we have is our most talented group as a whole since Saban has been here. There’s not a Julio or Amari on there, but Jeudy, Ruggs and Smith are as good as any group in the country. So I think this will be the most dynamic and high scoring offense of the Saban era, and I think Tua is in the discussion, possibly getting the invite to NYC, but I question whether the numbers will be there to overcome someone with insane numbers. Or even Bama fatigue from the voters
 
Playing the 3 hardest games of the year in November / early December helps too imo. Early season flash / loses momentum in October but reestablishes in high profile SEC games late in the season.
 
raems said:
We're about to see Bama run an offense about as potent as Baker last year and Mariota in 2014.

Hurts was literally incapable of completing forward passes and did not attempt to make any reads. It reached a point where the offense did not even ask him to make reads since they knew he was incapable.

With 5 stars everywhere, an experienced O line, and no primary go-to running back, it's all set up for Tua to coast. Everything I've seen suggests this guy is not only an upgrade to Hurts, but easily Saban's best quarterback, and probably the biggest QB upgrade in the entire country. This offense will absolutely destroy everybody in their wake, and you know Bama's good for enough wins to "qualify" him.

I think this one will be in the bag by mid-October. 8pm opening night ESPN game + a game at Ole Miss early on, more than enough chances for him to shine. This team will just score 50-60 points every game without even intending to embarass opponents.

Bama ATS / TT Over / Full Game Over against Louisville is the play too, along with a First Half ATS / Over play. It's going to take the book time to catch up to Bama having this good an offense, they've never had anything close to it under Saban.
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I placed a large bet for me yesterday at a border will hill at -25.5. The line is 8 points over BillC SP+. I think they crush too. He puts Ville 3rd tier ACC and is dubious. I'm fascinated that line is still and want to drive back with more dinero, haha, I'm into it
 
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i don't know why exactly but i am rooting for rough waters for Tua and a reinstatement of Jalen as the QB. i just like the kid Jalen a lot and I think it will make for a nice mini comeback story. a guy 24-2 loses his job over one bad half of football then regains it the next season
 
majent said:
i don't know why exactly but i am rooting for rough waters for Tua and a reinstatement of Jalen as the QB. i just like the kid Jalen a lot and I think it will make for a nice mini comeback story. a guy 24-2 loses his job over one bad half of football then regains it the next season
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Well, you could say one bad half but he wasn't going to be their future going forward anyways.

Tua was starting this year, either way.
 
B.A.R. said:
Well, you could say one bad half but he wasn't going to be their future going forward anyways.

Tua was starting this year, either way.
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even if Jalen plays the whole game vs Georgia and they win the Natty?

i don't think so man. you probably know something I don't but at that point he has one title and is one play away from the second.

Tua still starts regardless?
 
we'll find out a lot about Tua during this 8 game stretch, especially in road games at Arkie, Tennessee, and LSU

1534964148879.png
 
Jalen sucks. It was easy to see way before the natty—vs lsu, at aubbie, and jorja ofc. He can‘t throw the ball downfield its that simple. Tua can stretch the D with his aerial attack
 
Alabama won in spite of Jalen, not because of him. As VC noted, it was painfully obvious against LSU, Miss St, AU, Clemson and UGA that opposing defenses were not worried about the pass at all. Not sure Jalen saw a 2 safety look all season. He's a great kid, and has handled everything with as much class as you could hope, but he is nowhere near Tua's talent as a QB. In a different system, Jalen could be special.

And Najee may be more naturally talented than Damien Harris, but DH is pretty awesome in his own right
 
majent said:
even if Jalen plays the whole game vs Georgia and they win the Natty?

i don't think so man. you probably know something I don't but at that point he has one title and is one play away from the second.

Tua still starts regardless?
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It was going to be hard to keep Tua off the field even if Jalen was able to QB sneak and throw sideline fades out of bounds on his way to beating UGA last year. If it hadn't been for the defense being dominant against Clemson, Tua would have played then. There's audio out there of Saban telling someone that Tua went something like 51-55 against the 1st team defense in playoff practice last year. Jalen can't do that against air
 
Damien is excellent. I was just pointing out that the quick future of Bama was always gonna be the roommates.
 
raems said:
We're about to see Bama run an offense about as potent as Baker last year and Mariota in 2014.

Hurts was literally incapable of completing forward passes and did not attempt to make any reads. It reached a point where the offense did not even ask him to make reads since they knew he was incapable.

With 5 stars everywhere, an experienced O line, and no primary go-to running back, it's all set up for Tua to coast. Everything I've seen suggests this guy is not only an upgrade to Hurts, but easily Saban's best quarterback, and probably the biggest QB upgrade in the entire country. This offense will absolutely destroy everybody in their wake, and you know Bama's good for enough wins to "qualify" him.

I think this one will be in the bag by mid-October. 8pm opening night ESPN game + a game at Ole Miss early on, more than enough chances for him to shine. This team will just score 50-60 points every game without even intending to embarass opponents.

Bama ATS / TT Over / Full Game Over against Louisville is the play too, along with a First Half ATS / Over play. It's going to take the book time to catch up to Bama having this good an offense, they've never had anything close to it under Saban.
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I agree 100%, as was going to make a similar post. This is the first time in the Saban era that Alabama has had a truly elite QB. AJ McCarron was the closest thing Alabama has had under Saban, and he's not in the same league as Tua. Couple Tua with one of the best offensive lines in the nation, and ridiculous talent at RB and WR, and this looks to be te best offense in Alabama history.

If Saban doesn't screw up the first game by playing Hurts too much, I expect Alabama to but a 50-spot o the board. I think Louisville will be good for a couple of touchdowns as well. Hence, my #1 play in week 1 is the Bama/Lousville OVER. I like Bama minus the points too provided it stays south of 28.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I agree with Tahoe. Bama always has a great commitee of running backs and a strong o-line in front of them. Yes Tua will make the O stronger by stretching the field with his vertical passing ability but I think this will still be a run-first team. I‘d rather, for a heisman qb, look at somebody who will be the undoubted leader of his offense, someone like Trace McSorley who is a prolific slinger but doesn‘t have a star running back. He‘s the star of his O, Tua is not
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Tua is not only the star of the offense, he's the star of the entire team.
 
P-Unit said:
+800 for a guy that hasn't even been named the full time starter yet seems awfully poor value IMO. Not sure where you should set the line but it needs to be double digits.

We all agree he has the talent, but he's definitely not as much lock to win the Heisman as that line suggests.

And fwiw, Matt Womack broke his foot and needs surgery, so that's 1 OL that is out for extended time, if not the whole season.
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If Tua doesn't get hurt, I think he wins the Heisman easily. Absolutely the best bet on the board by far. I would go so far as to say if you aren't betting on Tua, you're wasting your money.
 
raems said:
He’s won the starting role, everybody reporting on practices + Hurts’s tone already implies that.

Certainly fair that betting a preseason favorite isn’t value. I just think he’s gonna win it going away, obviously in a minority there.
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Tua won the job half way through last season. The QB competition, as it were, is the most lopsided competition in the history of QB competitions. There is no competition. Just a Saban dog and pony show.
 
majent said:
i don't know why exactly but i am rooting for rough waters for Tua and a reinstatement of Jalen as the QB. i just like the kid Jalen a lot and I think it will make for a nice mini comeback story. a guy 24-2 loses his job over one bad half of football then regains it the next season
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:biglaugh:

Hurts is the worst QB on the Alabama roster, if not worst QB in all of DI football. The guy is simply not a QB. The days of trying to fit a square peg in a round hole needs to come to a merciful conclusion.
 
I believe VagCav was sentenced to at least 10 years in Tuscaloosa as it is, should get some great odds on 'Ville with locals
 
KJ said:
I believe VagCav was sentenced to at least 10 years in Tuscaloosa as it is, should get some great odds on 'Ville with locals
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Well, then he should have attended the two Alabama fall scrimmages like I did. Then maybe he would have something intelligent to say.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Well, then he should have attended the two Alabama fall scrimmages like I did. Then maybe he would have something intelligent to say.
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Well I already said what you had about Hurts. So I guess you‘re dumb? Or you‘re smart cause you said Tua is hands down the best. I mean you just overwhelm my intellect with that comment lmao. Based on mop duty and a half vs prevent D fröm team that didn’t gameplan vs him hands down the heisman. You dont read the thread and just come with your fanboy hype then insult anyone who disagrees lmao. You‘re on ignore
 
People keep saying mop-ups from last year...

Honestly, he was in pretty early in a few of the games. It wasn't 4th quarter kill the clock type situations that much.
 
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