Trying this again

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Did this last year for Week 18

I’m in a Hilton style pool. Last year I was in first, solicited the group’s feedback, and proceeded to finish in 3rd lol

This year I’m in 3rd, 1.5 points out of the lead. Looking for different juju

Here’s what I’m considering based off of the contest lines

Miami -1
Denver -2.5
Detroit +5.5
Rams +6.5
Cincy -7.5
Pitt -2.5
Chicago +7.5

Gotta get rid of 2. Open to talking it out here. 4th is a decent amount behind me so I am trying to take some games they (ahead of me) may not take as well.

If nobody feels like chiming in, no biggie. I kind of have my 5 but nobody knows the grind like this crew.

Go #1 seeded Chiefs
 
Pitt
Denver
Cincy
Rams
Miami

Honestly had a tough time finding 5. But, for this exercise those would be the picks.

Chicago is starting Peterman. Now, the news that Minny might not play starters the full game is interesting, this is still a bad Chicago team sans Fields.

That Detroit line has value. I know they'll play hard either way. I'm not trusting the NFL here to not send Clete Blakeman or some other ruthian to ensure GB a playoff spot. That's all.

Good luck man, very impressive in b2b years!
 
B.A.R. said:
Pitt
Denver
Cincy
Rams
Miami

Honestly had a tough time finding 5. But, for this exercise those would be the picks.

Chicago is starting Peterman. Now, the news that Minny might not play starters the full game is interesting, this is still a bad Chicago team sans Fields.

That Detroit line has value. I know they'll play hard either way. I'm not trusting the NFL here to not send Clete Blakeman or some other ruthian to ensure GB a playoff spot. That's all.

Good luck man, very impressive in b2b years!
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Thanks my friend. Appreciate you. 5 games this week is def tough. If you see one not mentioned, feel free to let me know!

Couldn’t help but think of our boy Slap the other night. He would have been talking immense shit at the Uconn game. Think of him every home game. Be well brother.
 
Capaholic said:
Did this last year for Week 18

I’m in a Hilton style pool. Last year I was in first, solicited the group’s feedback, and proceeded to finish in 3rd lol

This year I’m in 3rd, 1.5 points out of the lead. Looking for different juju

Here’s what I’m considering based off of the contest lines

Miami -1
Denver -2.5
Detroit +5.5
Rams +6.5
Cincy -7.5
Pitt -2.5
Chicago +7.5

Gotta get rid of 2. Open to talking it out here. 4th is a decent amount behind me so I am trying to take some games they (ahead of me) may not take as well.

If nobody feels like chiming in, no biggie. I kind of have my 5 but nobody knows the grind like this crew.

Go #1 seeded Chiefs
Click to expand...
Nice to see you post my friend. You should more often
 
OCD$ said:
Nice to see you post my friend. You should more often
Click to expand...

Thanks @OCD$ I’ve had a decent year but I largely have appeared in the discussion threads chiming in there. Over the years I have begun to get very weird about knowing that someone could lose money tailing a play of mine. Idk how touts live with themselves. But I have a couple people who send private messages and we break down and discuss games weekly. I’ll try to be more vocal but I’m always around to talk shop.
 
Capaholic said:
Thanks @OCD$ I’ve had a decent year but I largely have appeared in the discussion threads chiming in there. Over the years I have begun to get very weird about knowing that someone could lose money tailing a play of mine. Idk how touts live with themselves. But I have a couple people who send private messages and we break down and discuss games weekly. I’ll try to be more vocal but I’m always around to talk shop.
Click to expand...


Tail at own risk.

I've been yelled at, praised, bitched at. I'm a battered ram son. and my not give a fuck game is strong because of it.
 
HUNT said:
Detroit +5.5, this is going to be a closer game than people think.
Rams +6.5

I personally like the Jets and Browns .
Like the niners in a blow out. AZ has quit.

Gl bro!
Click to expand...

Niners were in the “also receiving votes” category. I may have to upgrade them

I know we will see a motivated Jets team but I actually like Skylar in that offense. I think they like McDaniel and the pressure is on to win this game. If I had the current line of -3 and beyond, I’d start to hesitate.
 
I don‘t trust Kirk in cold-weather games (see last week, last year in Chicago, 2017 at NYG) and while Fields is out the Vikes still have an awful run D while the Hokie asshole is having a great year. I think the Bears can hang in an ugly one
 
Capaholic said:
Niners were in the “also receiving votes” category. I may have to upgrade them

I know we will see a motivated Jets team but I actually like Skylar in that offense. I think they like McDaniel and the pressure is on to win this game. If I had the current line of -3 and beyond, I’d start to hesitate.
Click to expand...

Yeah the Fins game is a tough one. Something I'm not playing but, just a lean (not a strong one at all). I just like the Jets defense a little better here, although it has definitely gotten worse the last 4-5 weeks.

Niners win something like 28-3. They won't repeat last week, not a chance in hell.
 
I think the Steez game certainly comes down to whether Najee Harris and the o-line look like they did last week. They were unusually unusually excellent (and still just barely won lol)
 
HUNT said:
Detroit +5.5, this is going to be a closer game than people think.
Rams +6.5

I personally like the Jets and Browns .
Like the niners in a blow out. AZ has quit.

Gl bro!
Click to expand...
Not denying, just wondering your basis for saying AZ has quit? They almost won on the road with David what‘s-his-face
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Not denying, just wondering your basis for saying AZ has quit? They almost won on the road with David what‘s-his-face
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Yeah he plays hard but the rest of the team? eh. Niners are a different animal at home with seeding implications. Niners will be much more focused this week on defense after that shit show last week. Cardinals have lost their last 5 and have tried just about everyone at QB hoping lightning will strike. They've lost to some terrible teams recently in some close games and now facing a motivated home team. Week 12 all over again jmo.
 
HUNT said:
Yeah he plays hard but the rest of the team? eh. Niners are a different animal at home with seeding implications. Niners will be much more focused this week on defense after that shit show last week. Cardinals have lost their last 5 and have tried just about everyone at QB hoping lightning will strike. They've lost to some terrible teams recently in some close games and now facing a motivated home team. Week 12 all over again jmo.
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Agree.

After last week's defensive debacle, they will be focused this week.
 
Getting Denver at 2.5 is a solid line. I feel like it will be 6 gametime. Chargers will rest everyone if Baltimore loses early
 
I know you getting huge line value but I don’t understand the move to fish at all. I think most will take Miami cause the line value but jets are gonna win this game imo. Flacco isn’t a downgrade imo, when he played early in the year he got the ball to the weapons, I don’t think Miami can cover Wilson, Conklin and flacco will get them the ball just as well as a injured white would have. Who fish starting? Maybe teddy b who I like but he not close to 100% and after him it straight trash vs a good jets d. I seriously still wanted to take the jets but I can’t do it at that number but I think it be a wise move to avoid playing fish as everyone going to and they could easily lose.

Just my 2 cents. Gl, hope you win!
 
So it official skylar Thompson starting for fish? I think it be a mistake to play them when lots are going to cause the line value. Line makes no damn sense. White to flacco isn’t much a difference imo. Fish playing Thompson at least 6 points worse than teddy b or Tua.
 
Capaholic said:
Did this last year for Week 18

I’m in a Hilton style pool. Last year I was in first, solicited the group’s feedback, and proceeded to finish in 3rd lol

This year I’m in 3rd, 1.5 points out of the lead. Looking for different juju

Here’s what I’m considering based off of the contest lines

Miami -1
Denver -2.5
Detroit +5.5
Rams +6.5
Cincy -7.5
Pitt -2.5
Chicago +7.5

Gotta get rid of 2. Open to talking it out here. 4th is a decent amount behind me so I am trying to take some games they (ahead of me) may not take as well.

If nobody feels like chiming in, no biggie. I kind of have my 5 but nobody knows the grind like this crew.

Go #1 seeded Chiefs
Click to expand...
Im gonna sound bias but I expect the Rams to make it a game in Seattle. Rams have always done well there. The running game is back vs a suspect run D. Rams D is playing well. The key obviously is how much if at all does McVay play next years starters? RT Havenstein, Wagner, Ramsey, Floyd, Higbee, Jefferson, even Akers. Some of these players could be trade bate as well. It’ll be important to know this because McVay is known for protecting players from meaningless games. GL!
 
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2daBank said:
I know you getting huge line value but I don’t understand the move to fish at all. I think most will take Miami cause the line value but jets are gonna win this game imo. Flacco isn’t a downgrade imo, when he played early in the year he got the ball to the weapons, I don’t think Miami can cover Wilson, Conklin and flacco will get them the ball just as well as a injured white would have. Who fish starting? Maybe teddy b who I like but he not close to 100% and after him it straight trash vs a good jets d. I seriously still wanted to take the jets but I can’t do it at that number but I think it be a wise move to avoid playing fish as everyone going to and they could easily lose.

Just my 2 cents. Gl, hope you win!
Click to expand...
Have they removed the cement shoes from Flacco’s feet? I wouldn’t touch this shit show with a 10ft pole.
 
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Rams +6.5
Lions +5.5
Cincy -7.5
Denver -2.5
San Fran -14

This seems like the play.

If anyone wants to talk me off Cincy I’m all ears. Balt can’t score with Huntley, idk what they will do with Brown.
 
wiseplayer said:
Have the removed the cement shoes from Flacco’s feet? I wouldn’t touch this shit show with a 10ft pole.
Click to expand...

Lol. Probably not but do fish really get after the qb? I know they brought in what’s his favs from den but he ain’t been making much impact. Joe can still sling it , I’m just looking at Wilson and Conklin numbers from 1st 3 weeks when flacco played and they both had multiple good games during that 3 game stretch. I’m more interested in those 2 props but far as side I just don’t understand the move.. if jets were -1 with a banged up white against we thought probably be teddy b early in week, how the hell this move so much when I don’t think it a question Thompson a bigger downgrade than flacco from a injured white.
 
Im certainly not saying take jets, just don’t play fish just cause the line value as you would expect most ppl will, I normally would as well in that kind of contest:
 
Capaholic said:
Rams +6.5
Lions +5.5
Cincy -7.5
Denver -2.5
San Fran -14

This seems like the play.

If anyone wants to talk me off Cincy I’m all ears. Balt can’t score with Huntley, idk what they will do with Brown.
Click to expand...
Only thing on Ravens is that defense is the real deal and getting a few players back. All losses within 7 except v Browns (3-13). I personally like the Titans getting players back v Jags among other reasons
 
rambler882 said:
Only thing on Ravens is that defense is the real deal and getting a few players back. All losses within 7 except v Browns (3-13). I personally like the Titans getting players back v Jags among other reasons
Click to expand...

Reason I like cincy cause the screw job they getting from the league. It redic that all a sudden they lose this game and could be on road despite winning division when in reality they were gonna win Monday night and should be playing for 2 seed. It a shitty spot all around now cause they now have to show everything to a team that already knows them and they most likely have to play again next week.
 
2daBank said:
Reason I like cincy cause the screw job they getting from the league. It redic that all a sudden they lose this game and could be on road despite winning division when in reality they were gonna win Monday night and should be playing for 2 seed. It a shitty spot all around now cause they now have to show everything to a team that already knows them and they most likely have to play again next week.
Click to expand...
I stay away from trying to guess any mental state. They could be mad? Doesnt change much tho. What if Ravens are angrier?
 
rambler882 said:
I stay away from trying to guess any mental state. They could be mad? Doesnt change much tho. What if Ravens are angrier?
Click to expand...

Ravens can be angry as they want they still can’t score 17 points: I agree w you bout their d but holding cincy under 24 a huge ask imo.
 
2daBank said:
Reason I like cincy cause the screw job they getting from the league. It redic that all a sudden they lose this game and could be on road despite winning division when in reality they were gonna win Monday night and should be playing for 2 seed. It a shitty spot all around now cause they now have to show everything to a team that already knows them and they most likely have to play again next week.
Click to expand...
Sort of goes against the theory you like of teams meant to win, all things point to them, then they fall flat. Could say the anger is a distraction and they lost 2-3 days of prep and focus whereas Balt off a loss and more than likely were extremely focused this week.
 
rambler882 said:
Sort of goes against the theory you like of teams meant to win, all things point to them, then they fall flat. Could say the anger is a distraction and they lost 2-3 days of prep and focus whereas Balt off a loss and more than likely were extremely focused this week.
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Not really, My “must win” theory involves mediocre teams, when the best teams need a win I tend to trust they get it, that why they the best teams. For my money I think cincy the best team in afc right now.
 
You tell me kc, Cincy, bills, niners, need a win I like them more. You tell me those 8-8 scrub teams have to win and I don’t expect much. I think there a very big difference there don’t you?
 
But I’ll give ya this. I don’t think it makes a lick of difference where cincy/ravens gets played next week so if cincy didn’t care all that much and rather save their best game plan that wouldn’t shock me.
 
2daBank said:
You tell me kc, Cincy, bills, niners, need a win I like them more. You tell me those 8-8 scrub teams have to win and I don’t expect much. I think there a very big difference there don’t you?
Click to expand...
Win, sure I agree. 7.5 to 9.5 is alot versus a very good defense
 
rambler882 said:
Win, sure I agree. 7.5 to 9.5 is alot versus a very good defense
Click to expand...

For sure, I wasn’t really meaning for that to be a statement on that game, just the fact I don’t think it contradictory to trust certain teams in games they need to win while fading the mediocre 8-8 types who gotta win. I took cincy in pick contest since I needed 6 games and I had taken them Monday night so figured might as well stick with. I’m not actually betting them laying that number. There a few totals and props I love 2marro that will see most my money, along with fading a few those garbage “must win” teams!!
 
1st place team up 1.5 points on me
Vegas
Carolina
Washington
Chicago
Miami

2nd place team up 0.5 points on me
Vegas
Rams
Indy
Giants
Green Bay

Me
Rams
Detroit
Cincy
San Fran
Denver

A Detroit cover would be huge. Good money for top 3 but big difference from 3rd to 1st
 
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a1b68667-83fb-40d7-8e45-3a31a7823852-jpeg.294779
 
@B.A.R. @HUNT @cogenman @Ryno14 @VirginiaCavs

Thank you very much! I did not have "Lions win outright while Packers punt only once all game" on my Bingo card and I got a few good bounces during the day, but extremely happy for the win. I had a major car issue lately, so this money was needed lol. I have done well at these over time and would have finished in the money in the real one, so maybe it's time for that too.

But I wanted to say this... Like most, I have my hometown gambling guys. And I did pick their brains a bit. However, when I wanted the ultimate feedback, I came here to you guys. Next week will be 16 years here for me. This is the best place for football analysis for handicappers, bar none, on the internet. I am grateful to all of you always, but especially today. As you can see, I didn't have San Fran on my original list and added it after discussing with you all. And thank god I didn't take Chicago as our total list went 7-1 yesterday.

Thanks again gents. I will be more vocal in the playoffs and hopefully we can make some $$ over the next few weeks!
 
Capaholic said:
@B.A.R. @HUNT @cogenman @Ryno14 @VirginiaCavs

Thank you very much! I did not have "Lions win outright while Packers punt only once all game" on my Bingo card and I got a few good bounces during the day, but extremely happy for the win. I had a major car issue lately, so this money was needed lol. I have done well at these over time and would have finished in the money in the real one, so maybe it's time for that too.

But I wanted to say this... Like most, I have my hometown gambling guys. And I did pick their brains a bit. However, when I wanted the ultimate feedback, I came here to you guys. Next week will be 16 years here for me. This is the best place for football analysis for handicappers, bar none, on the internet. I am grateful to all of you always, but especially today. As you can see, I didn't have San Fran on my original list and added it after discussing with you all. And thank god I didn't take Chicago as our total list went 7-1 yesterday.

Thanks again gents. I will be more vocal in the playoffs and hopefully we can make some $$ over the next few weeks!
Click to expand...


LFG Cap!
 
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