TOTALS Players?

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I like to play totals as well as sides and I was looking at the UNDER 51 in the BYU/Arizona game. I think this is going to be a game where Arizona's defense should dominate, despite a potentially potent BYU offense this season.

On the other side of the ball, BYU's defense was terrible last season mainly due to injuries. They are expected to be much stronger this season. Arizona lost their top rusher off last year's team and although they are expected to be better through passing the ball, I don't see them scoring a ton of points.

I think 51 may be too high here. What do ya'll think??
 
Penn State and Akron under 47 looks good as well. I truly think with the losses Penn State sustained at QB and offensive line that they are going to struggle a bit for the first couple of game offensively. Even though their defense had losses, we all know that Paterno tends to just reload on that side of the ball.

Meanwhile, Akron lost a lot of RB and WR production from last season with very little defensive production lost. This could very easily be a low scoring affair and the trend to play the PSU UNDERS could be back in vogue this season.
 
Nevada/Fresno State UNDER 56 looks good for these reasons: FSU lost nearly all of their offensive production from last season (FB, RB, QB and one good WR) but retain most all their defensive production. While I think they will probably get clicking offensively by mid-season, I think they'll struggle early.

On the other side of the ball, Nevada's team should not be much different from last year's version except the fact that they should be better defensively. Steele predicts that they will have their lowest ppg allowed total since 1996!

These two teams scored 73 points between them in their game last year, but the personnel is too different this season for a repeat of that event. If I play this game at all that opening Friday night, it will be with an UNDER.
 
I'll take a look at all 3 in the next day or two and let you know what I think... I've been delaying football with getting this site going.
 
Here's an OVER for you, Stanford/Oregon OVER 58. I think we all agree that Oregon will likely not miss a beat offensively from last season due to retaining most of their offensive line. Whether the Ducks go with Dixon or Leaf, they both have valuable experience coming into this season and should do well.

Meanwhile, Stanford brings back nearly everyone on the offensive side of the ball and yet loses over 68% production on the defensive side!

It's PAC 10 and we're certainly not going to consider the UNDER, are we??
 
Fondybadger said:
I'll take a look at all 3 in the next day or two and let you know what I think... I've been delaying football with getting this site going.

It would be nice if you could get in here and give us a complete assessment of the Badgers this season. That line sure looks nice in their season opener if they have anything at all.

Is the cubbard bare?
 
I'll look a little deeper into the OVER in the Nebraska/Lousiana Tech match-up. My thinking there is that the Nebraska offensive unit ought to be well oiled and ready to hang up a half century by themselves in this game. If they can do it, I think Callahan would let them.

On the other side of the ball, LT has only 2 returning starters on defense and 8 returning on offense.

I think anything under 50 here is good value.
 
UNDER 57 in Minnesota/Kent State game. SHSUHorn is predicting a Minnesota cover here, so we have to assume they will probably dominate. However, we all know they will try to ram it down Kent State's throat and they are not the juggernaut they were a year ago. They have lost their two best RBs and several key linemen.

Meanwhile, even though Kent State's offense should be decent, their defense should be the better of the two units.
 
TCU/Baylor OVER 56 is a possibility. Both teams are suppose to shine this season offensively, but the defenses will not be as good as last season (Baylor's will likely be worse than TCU's.)

There could be a LOT of offense in this game and very little defense. . . . .
 
i have a great system for totals that involve taking the L3 yrs of game and seeing if i can get a "consistent" total in all games played. they become known as "conistent teams" under my system. when 2 consistent teams play the system is in effect.
 
South Carolina/Miss St OVER 44 may be a play:

Posted on Sun, Jul. 30, 2006
http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlo...23.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

IN MY OPINION / RON MORRIS

Get ready for lots of scoring at USC

RON MORRIS

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. - If you like high-scoring football, up-and-down-the-field excitement and long-distance plays, you just might have found your team in the 2006 South Carolina Gamecocks.
Let's put it this way: For USC to post a second consecutive winning season under coach Steve Spurrier, the Gamecocks are going to have to score a lot of points. Their 23.7 points per game a season ago will not translate into another seven-win campaign. Prepare yourself for some 42-35 shootouts.
There is every reason to believe USC will possess loads of firepower on offense this season. We should get a better idea of what Spurrier had in mind when he named his USC offense Cock 'n' Fire.
Conversely, with only three starters returning on defense, there is a good chance opponents are going to match the Gamecocks' offensive potency.
Spurrier said last week at the SEC Media Days that for USC to succeed on offense this season, quarterback Blake Mitchell has to show continued improvement. Expect it to happen.
For a first-year quarterback operating in Spurrier's system, Mitchell fared rather well last season. He ranked fourth in the SEC in passing yards (216 per game). It seems reasonable for Mitchell to throw for more than 3,000 yards this season after totaling 2,370 a season ago.
Mitchell will be aided by an improved running game with sophomore Mike Davis and junior Cory Boyd. Beyond that, he will have more targets to throw to after a season in which the focus of the passing game centered on receiver Sidney Rice. Seniors Syvelle Newton and Noah Whiteside return, and should be healthy. Sophomore Kenny McKinley and redshirt freshman O.J. Murdock could be emerging stars.
Spurrier's hope is all that talent translates into an offense that remains on the field longer. The Gamecocks ranked 10th in the SEC in third-down conversions a season ago, producing a first down 34 percent of the time.
If the Gamecocks can push that percentage up around 50, they are likely to ring up more points. More importantly, USC will keep its defense off the field.
Which brings us to the defense. Fred Bennett is a senior cornerback who has been pegged as all-SEC caliber. Junior Stanley Doughty should be a rock at nose tackle, and junior defensive end Jordin Lindsey proved solid a season ago.
Aside from junior rover Brandon Isaac, there is not a lot of experience from the remaining defensive unit. That lack of experience does not bother Bennett.
"We've got a lot of young players, a lot of young players who want to win," Bennett said. "We have a lot of players who have that winning attitude. These young guys want to win. I think our defense is going to be all right."
Bennett then paused and addressed what defense has meant to every Spurrier-coached team.
"The object for the defense is to put the offense in position to score points," he said. "The offense is real explosive. We know they're going to score points. We've got to put the offense in position to score points."
In other words, USC's defense has to do a better job this season of getting the offense the ball. The Gamecocks ranked 11th in the SEC a season ago in time of possession, and kept the ball longer than only three opponents.
As last season wore on, Spurrier's frustration with the defense grew. It finally boiled over during the second half of the Independence Bowl when USC's defense did not force Missouri to punt. Missouri rallied from a 28-7 deficit by scoring on six of its final eight possessions and running up more than 400 yards of offense after halftime.
That was the final and lasting impression of the 2005 season for Spurrier, who said again on Thursday that the bad taste of the 38-31 bowl loss lingers. He said he has participated in more strategy sessions with the defensive staff this off-season, and the defense will have a better chance to execute a simpler game plan.
"We've got to find a way to stop the other team quicker, and then stay out there longer offensively also," Spurrier said. "Our team was very good in scoring defense. We just had trouble getting them off the field."
That might be a lot to ask of a defense so lacking in experience. It is more realistic to expect USC's offense to make a giant leap in productivity. The end result will be some wild times at Williams-Brice Stadium and wherever the Gamecocks travel this season.
Ron Morris is a sports columnist at The (Columbia) State.
 
PlayWithMe said:
I was looking at the UNDER 51 in the BYU/Arizona game. I think this is going to be a game where Arizona's defense should dominate, despite a potentially potent BYU offense this season.

On the other side of the ball, BYU's defense was terrible last season mainly due to injuries. They are expected to be much stronger this season. Arizona lost their top rusher off last year's team and although they are expected to be better through passing the ball, I don't see them scoring a ton of points.

I think 51 may be too high here. What do ya'll think??

I'm thinking the new rule changes (Clock Issues) might make BYU unders more attractive. Arizona's defense is fun to watch as I think lil Stoops is finally getting the troops he needs to compete. I think the offense is still a year or two away though. Definately think the under is wroth a solid look here.

PlayWithMe said:
Penn State and Akron under 47 looks good as well. I truly think with the losses Penn State sustained at QB and offensive line that they are going to struggle a bit for the first couple of game offensively. Even though their defense had losses, we all know that Paterno tends to just reload on that side of the ball.

Meanwhile, Akron lost a lot of RB and WR production from last season with very little defensive production lost. This could very easily be a low scoring affair and the trend to play the PSU UNDERS could be back in vogue this season.

Don't forget that PSU returns their playmaker at MLB - Pozlewski (or however you want to spell it - i know i'm way off). I think they'll be a team that can contend in the big 10, but they do need to replace a lot of offensive players. Thinking that at least early in the year that PSU will be a more run oriented team. I think that Akron will have to toss the ball against PSU to try to stay in the game, and I'd be worried about a late game moose. I could see PSU scoring 28-35 points with Akron getting a couple scores. With their QB back, I don't think the production will drop off too much at WR, as WR seem to almost always come out of the woodwork.

PlayWithMe said:
Here's an OVER for you, Stanford/Oregon OVER 58. I think we all agree that Oregon will likely not miss a beat offensively from last season due to retaining most of their offensive line. Whether the Ducks go with Dixon or Leaf, they both have valuable experience coming into this season and should do well.

Meanwhile, Stanford brings back nearly everyone on the offensive side of the ball and yet loses over 68% production on the defensive side!

It's PAC 10 and we're certainly not going to consider the UNDER, are we??

Definately don't want to consider the under in this one. I really like Oregon this year after the QB injuries they went through. I could see a very big offensive production from either/both of those guys.
 
New Rules Will Affect Sides...But Especially Totals

New Rule Appears Open to Interpretation




A rule designed to reduce the length of games ignited a litany of complaints from coaches attending the Pacific 10 media day in Los Angeles. Specifically, the new rule (3-2-5-e) states that after changes in possession such as interceptions and kickoffs, the clock begins as soon as officials mark the ball ready for play. In the past, the clock did not start until the ensuing snap, giving squads time to run onto the field. "It's the most dramatic, drastic change I've ever seen. Nobody likes it," Oregon coach Mike Bellotti told the L.A. Times. Here are two doomsday scenarios: If only one or two seconds remain, coaches asked, will offensive squads have time to line up and snap the ball for a Hail Mary or field-goal attempt? ... If the leading team takes possession with less than 25 seconds remaining — the time allotted to snap the ball before a delay-of-game penalty — it could simply wait on the sideline as officials mark the ball and start the clock. In other words, the game would end with an empty field. "I wouldn't send my offense out there. No sense in taking a chance," Oregon State coach Mike Riley said. Verle Sorgen, the Pac-10 coordinator for football officiating, didn't appear to have any answers. "We'll do the best we can," he said.
 
More on the Same Topic

New Rule Will Cut 20-30 Plays From a Game




The new 3-2-5-e rule, which mandates the clock being started when the ball is marked ready to play after a change of possession, will cut between 20-30 plays from your average game. How do we arrive at this number? A change of possession is a kickoff, punt, interception or fumble. Let us say there are seven kickoffs, eight punts, three fumbles and two interceptions in a game. That is a total of 20 plays. Not unreasonable. Previously, the game clock did not start until the ball was snapped. No more under 3-2-5-e. As soon as the ball is marked, the game and play clocks will start. So teams must shuttle offenses and defenses on the field while the game and play clocks are running and get the play off. This will no doubt take up nearly all of the allotted 25 seconds, time that did not run off the game clock before the passage of 3-2-5-e. We can't stress how much an impact this is going to have on games. This is one of the biggest rules changes in years. Remember this when point totals come out for week one because the unders will no doubt be worth a close look. The rationale behind this rule change was to cut the length of the average game by five minutes. We ask why? The popularity of college football is at an all-time high. Will five minutes send the sport plunging into oblivion? No. But if you want to push it off that slope, cutting 20-30 plays is a good place to start.
 
Continuing...

Blowing the Whistle on Rule 3-2-5-e




Count Scott Wolf, USC beat reporter for the Los Angeles Daily News, among the sharp-eyed reporters on top of the disastrous 3-2-5-e rule, which we have been harping about for the past few days. Wolf, in his blog, says the new rule is expected to shorten games by 10-12 minutes and knock 10-12 plays out of the game. The Wiz won't guesstimate how much time will be shaved from the length of a game, but he will challenge only 10-12 plays being lost. The argument we presented Saturday was actually a conservative estimate of 20 lost plays. For example, we cited seven kickoffs in our mock game. That would mean a game with five scores and the two kickoffs to start each half. Many games have 10 or more kickoffs. Now unless the networks are plotting to step in and insert commercial time between the kickoff and the next play from scrimmage (as is done for NFL games), each kickoff will result in the loss of one play under 3-2-5-e. ... We listed only eight punts in our mock game. Again, a very conservative estimate. Any game dominated by defenses will drive this number up considerably, often resulting in 15 punts. Now let's say a commercial break is inserted 50% of the time after punts. So if you have 15 punts and get eight commercials, that would mean a loss of seven plays under 3-2-5-e. As for fumbles and interceptions, again we will go with a commercial break being inserted 50% of the time. So if you have five turnovers, at least two and possibly three plays will be lost. With 10 kickoffs, that puts you right at 20 plays. Now if you don't believe us, read what Darrell Moody wrote in the Nevada Appeal, where Hawaii coach June Jones predicted his team would lose between 12 and 15 snaps because of the rule and that the lost plays would cost the Rainbows 14 points.
 
rjurewitz said:
New Rule Will Cut 20-30 Plays From a Game




The new 3-2-5-e rule, which mandates the clock being started when the ball is marked ready to play after a change of possession, will cut between 20-30 plays from your average game. How do we arrive at this number? A change of possession is a kickoff, punt, interception or fumble. Let us say there are seven kickoffs, eight punts, three fumbles and two interceptions in a game. That is a total of 20 plays. Not unreasonable. Previously, the game clock did not start until the ball was snapped. No more under 3-2-5-e. As soon as the ball is marked, the game and play clocks will start. So teams must shuttle offenses and defenses on the field while the game and play clocks are running and get the play off. This will no doubt take up nearly all of the allotted 25 seconds, time that did not run off the game clock before the passage of 3-2-5-e. We can't stress how much an impact this is going to have on games. This is one of the biggest rules changes in years. Remember this when point totals come out for week one because the unders will no doubt be worth a close look. The rationale behind this rule change was to cut the length of the average game by five minutes. We ask why? The popularity of college football is at an all-time high. Will five minutes send the sport plunging into oblivion? No. But if you want to push it off that slope, cutting 20-30 plays is a good place to start.

I think this alone would warrant more UNDER plays than OVER plays, don't ya'll??
 
In fact, guys, I think it may take Vegas, and the general betting public, at least two weeks to catch up to the TOTAL scores with these new rule changes. We would do well to examine these TOTALS closely before week one because this may be the biggest advantage we will have over Vegas the entire season! I'm thinking I might find 5 SOLID UNDERS to play opening week (and 5 SOLID SIDES.)
 
PlayWithMe said:
In fact, guys, I think it may take Vegas, and the general betting public, at least two weeks to catch up to the TOTAL scores with these new rule changes. We would do well to examine these TOTALS closely before week one because this may be the biggest advantage we will have over Vegas the entire season! I'm thinking I might find 5 SOLID UNDERS to play opening week (and 5 SOLID SIDES.)

I agree. I think the rule changes favor dogs, especially huge dogs, and unders.
 
Lessons In Stupidity: The Newest Rule Change
By HornsFan Section: Football
Posted on Tue Aug 01, 2006 at 09:53:43 AM EST
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If you're a hardcore college football fan, as I am, you've no doubt heard about the newest rule change that threatens to shorten games by an estimated 12-20 plays, depending on the analysis. I won't rehash what's already been covered eloquently elsewhere (e.g. here, here), but rather comment on the broader story that lurks beneath the rule change.
SMQ rightfully noted that the rule change caters to the desire to serve the casual fans' interests - not the truly dedicated. What's so terribly offensive and, more importantly, misguided, is that it 1) takes for granted the hardcore fans, while 2) falling flat on its face in its intended effect.
The desire to market the sport to a more casual audience is not in and of itself a flawed idea. Sadly, though, college football decision makers are falling into the same misguided strategy pattern that's consumed Bud Selig over at Major League Baseball.
Selig's latest jaw-dropper: he told reporters that, perhaps, pitchers appearing in the All Star Game shouldn't be allowed to pitch on the Sunday before the contest.
Huh? Really? The logic underlying this idea is absurdly backwards. Like with college football, the attempt to cater to casual fans is not in and of itself a flawed idea. But when that catering comes at the expense of the very thing that makes the sport desirable, it's mind-boggling dumb. What's wonderful about baseball is the race for the postseason; not some silly exhibition game in July. And yet Mr. Selig wants to affect the former, by enforcing a rule to enhance the appeal of the latter? Really?
selig.bmp

It hurts to be this dumb.
Now college football, no doubt motivated by the exact same misguided greed, wants to cater to casual fans by shortening the games. Is it really a good idea to water down your sport's greatest strengths just to get a few more boobs in front of the tube? Of course not. What's worse is that the strategy doesn't trust the sport and its strengths to speak for/sell themselves.
It's all going to get worse before it gets better. Considering that we're unlikely to leave the sports we love, it may not ever get better, though our resentment for being taken for granted will undoubtedly grow. So while I shake my head at this latest round of stupidity, I just thank my lucky stars that this rule wasn't around last year...
God forbid the Rose Bowl be allowed to go three and a half full hours. The audience just can't sit through that much action. 38-26 USC would have suited us all much, much better.
vincewinner.jpg

Just in time. The greatest game that ever was... wouldn't have happened this year.
 
Good Article on Effect of Rule Change

Some coaches wary of new rule changes

DON RUIZ; The News Tribune
Last updated: July 28th, 2006 01:41 AM (PDT)
LOS ANGELES – College football will introduce seven rules changes this season, and one has Pacific-10 Conference coaches complaining it will fundamentally change the game. The rule aims to shorten games by starting the game clock when the ball is put in play after changes of possession. Previously, only the 25-second clock was started when the ball was ready for play, and the game clock didn’t start until the snap.
“As a coach, I am appalled at the rule changes,” said Oregon’s Mike Bellotti, dean of Pac-10 coaches. “They are major and very severe, in my mind, and are going to change the game as we know it – especially starting the game clock at the ready signal after change of possession.
“That changes a lot of strategy, a lot of opportunities at the end of a game. And I’m disappointed because I can’t find anybody who says they were in favor of that.”
The changes were approved by the NCAA rules committee, which is made up of representatives from divisions I, II and III.
It is estimated that the rule – and another, less controversial one that starts the clock when the ball is kicked rather than when it is touched by the receiving team – will shorten the game by five to 12 minutes and by 10 to 20 plays.
“I think the changes in the clock will definitely change the game,” Washington coach Tyrone Willingham said. “… We do not have as skilled and athletic (players) as the professionals do, and therefore our young men are going to make mistakes. That’s part of the game. Mistakes are exciting – you hate to say it, but it’s true. And now we’ve taken away opportunities, and therefore you can imagine that some of the excitement of the game will be missing.”
Willingham and Bellotti said they haven’t heard from fans complaining that games are too long.
“It’s an event. It’s an all-day event,” Bellotti said. “People tailgate before and after. I don’t think cutting five or 10 or 15 minutes out of a game is really going to make any difference (to fans).”
Coaches are likely to react in different ways.
Highly skilled teams will try to make better use of the allotted time. Southern California coach Pete Carroll, for example, indicated that after a change of possession he will have his offense waiting at the line, ready to put the ball in play instantly.
For less talented teams, fewer plays could act as an equalizer, another way to shorten the game.
Washington State coach Bill Doba seemed wary of the new rule, but he jokingly acknowledged that fewer plays could have helped the Cougars last season when they let several late leads slip away.
“I would have loved to have had a few less plays,” he said with a smile. “Can I pick out the ones I want out?”
Other rule changes outlaw tinted eye shields on helmets, reduce the kicking tee from 2 inches to 1 inch, offer the voluntary opportunity to trim a few minutes from halftime, allow receiving teams to add a 5-yard penalty to the end of a punt return instead of forcing a rekick, and permit coaches one instant-replay challenge per game at the cost of a timeout.
There also will be some changes in the Pac-10 itself. Among them: Each school will play all nine conference rivals, ABC will add seven nationally televised games starting at 5 p.m., and Stanford will open its remodeled stadium. Also, there has been a tweaking of Pac-10-affiliated bowls: the Rose (Pac-10 champion), Holiday (No. 2), Sun (No. 3), Las Vegas (No. 4 or 5), Emerald (No. 4 or 5) and Hawaii (No. 6).
 
Yet Another Article on the Rule Change...

HUNGRY WIVES OVERTHROW, REPLACE NCAA RULES COMMITTEE
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
In seasonably appropriate fashion, like a fly to the zapper, or a politician to the crucial, soon-to-be-forgotten buzz crisis of the week, the excruciating dog days compel SMQ to join the bloviation surrounding the much-discussed and reviled Rule 3-2-5-e, enacted by the NCAA Rules Committee this offseason to shorten games by allowing officials to start the clock after changes of possession when the ball is set, rather than at the snap of the possession's first play.

This is the rule:

Rule 3-2-5-e, When Clock Starts
Change:
When Team B is awarded a first down, the clock will be stopped and the clock will start on the ready for play signal.

Rationale: By starting the clock, the committee estimates it will shorten the game by about five minutes, according to studies by several Division I-A conferences.

"Team B," we must conclude, is the receiving team of a punt, kickoff or turnover. A couple more less drastic changes, related to halftime length and starting the clock on "free kicks" (kickoffs), are also enacted among many other, mostly replay-related, amendments.

The ever diligent Wizard of Odds beats his drum against the rule here, here and here. Everyday Should Be Saturday laments the rationale and uses it to further urge the adoption of soccer-style, in-game ads at the expense of lengthy commercial breaks, which CBS already does, annoyingly, in addition to the more conventional ads. The L.A. Times documented the negative reaction of PAC Ten coaches at last week's media day.

Various griping about the overall length of college games - that is, from kickoff to final gun, not the actual playing time - wherein people present such arguments as "Obnoxious amounts of advertising can be tolerated, however, so long as you trim elsewhere," can be found here, here and here.

SMQ would like to say straightaway that long football games are not a problem. Such angst short of three and a half hours is entirely manufactured, and, one would guess, mostly by "fans" who like to tailgate and dress up and drink and engage in non-violent mob whooping and chanting, but ultimately don't really like football all that much. This is a problem for girlfriends and wives. What kind of "fan" is willing to invest three hours in a televised game, but not three and a half? Many folks - SMQ often among them - leave a game on TV and come back to it, and the length of a game affects this huge demographic not a whit. People attending the game, unless they simply do not care at all about the action from the outset, can hardly benefit from less action aimed at either sustaining or extending the length of mind-numbing TV timeouts.

- - - - -
Look at us, oh my god, we loooove football! Go team!...Uh, are they still playing? Take our picture!


But this isn't about improving the quality of the game, is it? It's about enhancing ad time, at the expense of the central product - because "Obnoxious amounts of advertising can be tolerated...so long as you trim elsewhere." This widespread mindset shapes the game to fit the invioalable marketing, rather than work the money-making around the benefit of the game, and why not?. This is the same reason ESPN is all about "Sportstainment," rather than hardcore sports, because hardcore sports fans are already locked in. Want to grow your audience? Highlight everything around the game, so it's still interesting to people who don't care about the game. And sell them beer!

SMQ should be clear that the pageantry and emotion of college football is wonderful (and so, too, especially, is beer), and is its primary attraction over the blatantly corporate NFL. This is 3-2-5-e's greatest flaw: the number of plays will be reduced by about a dozen or so, very likely more, which will put numbers around an NFL-esque 145 or so plays per game. This has little to do with excessive outside marketing and much to do with the actual on-field product; the professional games in SMQ's view are notoriously bloated by very long play clocks (up to two-thirds of a game can tick, tick, tick away while people gesture wildly at the line of scrimmage) and non-stoppages for first downs, elements that hurt games by cutting the number of snaps to a bare bones, flow-crushing minimum. The length - as in the number of snaps college teams get off in a game - is one of the relative strengths, along with much wider variations in strategy and the aforementioned pageantry, of the "amateur" contests.

In this vain, Marty from the indispensible cfbstats.com, commenting at The Wizard of Odds gives us these national play totals for Division I-A games in 2005:

Rush: 55,967 (77.95 per game)
Pass: 47,430 (66.06)
Kickoff: 7,689 (10.71)
Punt: 7,663 (10.67)
Field Goal: 2,295 (3.2)
Total: 121,044 (168.5)

The two to really pay attention to here are kickoff and punt, as these plays are affected by the rule change in every instance. Rounding up, we have about 11 of each per game. Assuming time consumed by the early start mandated by 3-2-5-e costs about one snap per possession change, that's about 20 total plays in an average game, without factoring in changes following turnovers and missed field goals. The Wizard Odds' estimate of 20-30 lost plays per game seems more accurate than the loss of a dozen or so elsewhere. We have an hour of football available per game, maybe 25 percent of which is spent on real action. Any measure that reduces actual play time falls in the realm of 'not good.'

Those numbers don't even consider possible situational discrepancies that could directly affect the outcomes of some games, about which other detractors have fretted and SMQ has one specific, anecdotal example: when father of SMQ was a young high school assistant in the early 1980s, Mississippi high school rules dictated, as 3-2-5 and 3-2-5-e will now for colleges, that the clock start following turnovers whenever deemed ready by the official, not at the snap of the first play of the possession. So, at the end of a close game, with his team holding a slim lead and backed up on fourth down, father of SMQ (or another coach, this is not clear) decided to take a safety, and subsequently advised the team's punter to take the snap, hang around for a while, etc., and then run out of the end zone with a few seconds left. So the kid got the ball, ran around for a while and then dutifully ran out of the end zone - and was tackled around his own two-yard line. The back of the end zone! Run out of the back of the end zone! This is not precisely what they had instructed.

- - - - -
Run the other way, idiot! The other way!


Anyway, the rule in question applies because: the opposing team, with an improbable chance to win, was unable to get a snap off after the change of possession because the clock ran out.

Is any incompetence remotely similar to this likely to happen in any actual collegiate game? Perhaps only if Kansas State is involved. The final scene of many tense, emotional games, though, as noted by detractors amateur and professional, far and wide, will be the same: anticlimatic scrambling, as the deserved opportunity needlessly ticks away.
 
New rules mean less football
Chip Alexander, Staff Writer
Some of college football's new rules have coaches scrambling in preseason practices and players wondering how much of their season will vanish.
To speed up and shorten games that sometimes run nearly four hours, NCAA leaders passed measures in February that will keep the game clock running at times and call for greater attention to clock management. Many expect it could mean a loss of 10 to 20 plays a game.
The changes will mean more demands on quarterbacks such as N.C. State's Marcus Stone.
"It adds a lot," Stone said. "You've got to get used to speeding up the tempo of the offense and getting everybody out of the huddle and lined up quick."
And the thought of losing plays?
"I don't like it personally," Stone said. "You work your tail off all through the summer and the spring and you fight and sweat out here. You add it all up, 10 plays a game over 12 games, that's 120 plays gone."
John Adams, secretary-rules editor of the NCAA football rules committee, said non-televised Division I-A games last season averaged 3 hours, 3 minutes, while televised games ran 3:20.
"The concern has been that game [lengths] were creeping up -- not by quantum leaps but getting longer and longer each year," said Dennis Poppe, the NCAA's managing director of football. "There was a concern ... about an increased potential for injury because of time on the field."
The clock now will begin on kickoffs when foot meets ball, not after the catch. On nearly all changes of possession, the ball will be spotted by the game officials and the clock started rather than starting it on the first snap.
An incomplete pass or a player going out of bounds won't always keep the clock stopped, either.
Example: A team may attempt a fourth-down pass that's incomplete. In the past, the clock would stop and not start until the other team snapped the ball. Under the new rules, the ball will be spotted, the officials signal "ready for play" and the clock will start.
Another situation: a team intercepts a pass and the defender then runs out of bounds. Again, spot the ball, start the clock.
"It's the first time in the history of college football that we'll wind the clock as ready for play following a kickoff, a run out of bounds, incomplete pass or touchback," Adams said.
Teams may have to use timeouts to stop the clock after a possession change. Players must get in and out of the huddle quicker. In final seconds of the first half or at the end of games, a change of possession may call for a team's field-goal unit to rush on the field and be in position quicker if the team is out of timeouts.
"There will be situations, probably at the end of the game, where you have to be very careful and be absolutely, totally alert as far as what your situation is," North Carolina coach John Bunting said.
Duke coach Ted Roof said he approves of the clock measures, noting, "It just speeds the process up. That's a good thing, to speed up the game."
Others disagree. Oregon coach Mike Bellotti, at the recent Pac-10 media gathering, said he was "appalled" by changes he said were too severe and would "change the game as we know it."
Bunting won't go that far, noting, "I'm curious to see how it plays out. You know, it may not impact the game much at all."
NCSU coach Chuck Amato, sweat dripping off his brow after a recent practice that included an emphasis on clock management, said the changes could "make a big difference, for both coaches and officials." Wolfpack offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, a former NFL assistant, said some things still were hazy about the new rules.
"When do [officials] start the clock? When you get the ball? When both teams are around the ball?" he said. "It would be ridiculous to put the ball in play when everybody is running out and nobody is ready."
Tommy Hunt, the ACC supervisor of football officials, said that won't happen. The game officials, he said, would wait a reasonable amount of time, until the teams are on the field and in position, before winding the clock.
"[Hunt] told me there will be plenty of time to exchange offensive and defensive personnel, and get them off the field. It should not be a problem," Bunting said.
Hunt said most fans may notice some of the other changes even more. Coaches, for the first time, can challenge a call made on a play that's reviewable. Also, when a team kicks and is penalized for an infraction on the snap -- say, for illegal procedure -- the receiving team can opt to accept the penalty and have the ball kicked over or have five yards tacked on the return.
And if clock issues prove to be problematic, the NCAA football rules committee can give it another look after the season.
"It certainly can be changed," said Grant Teaff, executive director of the American Football Coaches Association. "If it isn't beneficial to the game and those who play it, it should be changed."
For the Pack's Stone, longer games aren't necessarily a bad thing. Even a four-hour game. "Not at all," he said. "I love it."
 
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