Underrated and Overlooked NFL Draft Prop Bet
Who Is CJ Henderson: Stats
In the upcoming NFL Draft, CJ Henderson is almost universally regarded as the second-best cornerback after Ohio State’s Jeff Okudah.
Stats-wise, he was a consistent success in his career at Florida.
First of all, teams were scared to throw his way.
In coverage snaps where he played on the outside, he was targeted once every 7.2 snaps. This target rate pits him in the 90th percentile.
When quarterbacks did test him, they didn’t find much success. Henderson allowed a 52.7 percent completion rate when targeted.
He produced his best statistical output two seasons ago before a rare ankle issue and LSU’s ridiculous passing offense hurt his numbers a bit (more on that soon).
In that 2018 season, he allowed one reception for every 19.1 snaps and he did not allow a touchdown.
Last season, he allowed two touchdowns, both against LSU.
One of those touchdowns, though, was surely not his fault.
To explain, he was positioned before the play on the outside.ofhis opposing wide receiver.
He was supposed to get safety help inside. This lack of safety help explains the one touchdown.
Henderson has also bolstered his stats in one-on-one coverage against top-notch competition.
Against LSU, he squared off with Ja’Marr Chase, who caught two of five passes for 20 yards when covered by Henderson alone. Henderson contested three of those five targets.
Here you see Henderson showcasing against Chase his strength in press coverage:
CJ Henderson’s Physical Tool Set
One crucial respect in which Henderson is unique among corners is his speed.
Coming out of high school, he shocked everybody with a 4.35 40-yard dash.
Of course, he was a bit slower in the NFL combine because he put on 25 pounds of muscle during his three years at Florida.
Still, he led all cornerbacks in the combine with a 4.39 40-yard dash.
This speed will allow him to keep up with any elite wide receiver.
Also, his speed allows him to recover, which every cornerback will need to do at some time or another.
You see in the above video that, after getting set late, he gets beat off the line.
But he is still able to recover to make a play on the ball.
In addition to his speed, his height at 6-1 is a very positive plus because height makes defending passes easier for a cornerback.
His height puts him in the 81st percentile among cornerbacks in the past 20 years.
Moreover, he moves his hips well to remain fluid in mirroring an opposing wide receiver. You see an example in this tweet:
To summarize, Henderson is the consensus second-best cornerback in the upcoming draft because he is statistically accomplished while being well-tested and because of his physical toolset.
He is very speedy, he is fluid.
Coverage-wise, he’ll line up on the inside or outside of his receiver, yield a cushion, or play press coverage, and he’ll fit in a variety of schemes.
Where He’ll Most Likely Go: Atlanta
My favorite place for Henderson to end up is in Atlanta.
The Falcons need to replace cornerback Desmond Trufant.
They do have other needs, but have done a good job improving their defensive line and running back situations via free agency.
Hence, cornerback is their top remaining need and Henderson would be perfect at number 16.
Other Landing Spots For Henderson
Even if AJ Bouye bounces back from his poor performance last season to help Denver’s secondary, the Broncos really need a cornerback.
With Chris Harris gone, the Broncos could select Henderson at 15.
At 13, San Francisco probably wants make a pick with view to the future.
With four cornerbacks slated for free agency after this season, the 49ers would be wise to prepare themselves by selecting Henderson.
Another possibility, with historical precedent, would be Dallas trading up to take Henderson with one of the first 16 picks.
The Cowboys, who currently hold the 17th pick, find themselves in a similar situation to 2012 when they traded up to select cornerback Morris Claiborne.
They need to replace Byron Jones and at least three teams are slated to pick ahead of Dallas that could pick Henderson (I’m assuming that Okudah is the top corner taken).
Since the Raiders failed to sign Eli Apple, they could select Henderson with the 12th pick if their top desired wide receivers have already been selected.
The Verdict
Henderson’s draft stock is trending upward as NFL scouts agree that he will be a CB1-type player with his physical tools and versatility in coverage.
He’s a strongly realistic option for several teams within the first 16 picks.
Best Bet: C.J. Henderson Draft Position Under 16.5 (-135) at 5Dimes
Who Is CJ Henderson: Stats
In the upcoming NFL Draft, CJ Henderson is almost universally regarded as the second-best cornerback after Ohio State’s Jeff Okudah.
Stats-wise, he was a consistent success in his career at Florida.
First of all, teams were scared to throw his way.
In coverage snaps where he played on the outside, he was targeted once every 7.2 snaps. This target rate pits him in the 90th percentile.
When quarterbacks did test him, they didn’t find much success. Henderson allowed a 52.7 percent completion rate when targeted.
He produced his best statistical output two seasons ago before a rare ankle issue and LSU’s ridiculous passing offense hurt his numbers a bit (more on that soon).
In that 2018 season, he allowed one reception for every 19.1 snaps and he did not allow a touchdown.
Last season, he allowed two touchdowns, both against LSU.
One of those touchdowns, though, was surely not his fault.
To explain, he was positioned before the play on the outside.ofhis opposing wide receiver.
He was supposed to get safety help inside. This lack of safety help explains the one touchdown.
Henderson has also bolstered his stats in one-on-one coverage against top-notch competition.
Against LSU, he squared off with Ja’Marr Chase, who caught two of five passes for 20 yards when covered by Henderson alone. Henderson contested three of those five targets.
Here you see Henderson showcasing against Chase his strength in press coverage:
CJ Henderson’s Physical Tool Set
One crucial respect in which Henderson is unique among corners is his speed.
Coming out of high school, he shocked everybody with a 4.35 40-yard dash.
Of course, he was a bit slower in the NFL combine because he put on 25 pounds of muscle during his three years at Florida.
Still, he led all cornerbacks in the combine with a 4.39 40-yard dash.
This speed will allow him to keep up with any elite wide receiver.
Also, his speed allows him to recover, which every cornerback will need to do at some time or another.
You see in the above video that, after getting set late, he gets beat off the line.
But he is still able to recover to make a play on the ball.
In addition to his speed, his height at 6-1 is a very positive plus because height makes defending passes easier for a cornerback.
His height puts him in the 81st percentile among cornerbacks in the past 20 years.
Moreover, he moves his hips well to remain fluid in mirroring an opposing wide receiver. You see an example in this tweet:
To summarize, Henderson is the consensus second-best cornerback in the upcoming draft because he is statistically accomplished while being well-tested and because of his physical toolset.
He is very speedy, he is fluid.
Coverage-wise, he’ll line up on the inside or outside of his receiver, yield a cushion, or play press coverage, and he’ll fit in a variety of schemes.
Where He’ll Most Likely Go: Atlanta
My favorite place for Henderson to end up is in Atlanta.
The Falcons need to replace cornerback Desmond Trufant.
They do have other needs, but have done a good job improving their defensive line and running back situations via free agency.
Hence, cornerback is their top remaining need and Henderson would be perfect at number 16.
Other Landing Spots For Henderson
Even if AJ Bouye bounces back from his poor performance last season to help Denver’s secondary, the Broncos really need a cornerback.
With Chris Harris gone, the Broncos could select Henderson at 15.
At 13, San Francisco probably wants make a pick with view to the future.
With four cornerbacks slated for free agency after this season, the 49ers would be wise to prepare themselves by selecting Henderson.
Another possibility, with historical precedent, would be Dallas trading up to take Henderson with one of the first 16 picks.
The Cowboys, who currently hold the 17th pick, find themselves in a similar situation to 2012 when they traded up to select cornerback Morris Claiborne.
They need to replace Byron Jones and at least three teams are slated to pick ahead of Dallas that could pick Henderson (I’m assuming that Okudah is the top corner taken).
Since the Raiders failed to sign Eli Apple, they could select Henderson with the 12th pick if their top desired wide receivers have already been selected.
The Verdict
Henderson’s draft stock is trending upward as NFL scouts agree that he will be a CB1-type player with his physical tools and versatility in coverage.
He’s a strongly realistic option for several teams within the first 16 picks.
Best Bet: C.J. Henderson Draft Position Under 16.5 (-135) at 5Dimes
