TNT Thursday Plays and Analysis(2nd half added in Sea)

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Starting this thread as the early halloween games wind down. Sorry for not being around much opening night and today. Net prollems derailed some of my time. Will be around all night tonight and most of tomorrow though so lets keep this start going

1-0 +1.00 units

*Plays pending on Dallas and the hova in Seattle tonight*

First of all, a few quick notes of interest for you cappers:

-Yi played around twenty minutes tonight and picked up 5 fouls. He will be in persistent foul trouble all season. I think I remember Dirk having the same issues his rookie year(which was horrid)
-Richard Jefferson is still a very good player. He is the key to that Jersey team. He has never meshed well with Vince and has taken too much of a backseat.
-Iggy trying to do a bit too much for Sixers. Seven turnovers tonight.


Three games on tap for Thursday night. I don't play a lot of these games. Something about Thursdays I don't like. I usually can do pretty well on Detroit TNT games though.

Houston @ Utah
-NBA schedule set up plenty of these rematches early in the season. Like I thought last night, Houston looked very up and down. Line is set about right but I think the only play to look at in this game is Utah. Not that I am going to play it but people need to be careful with Houston early and then ride with them later in the season.

Phoenix @ Seattle
-This will be a back-toback game for the Sonics. Shouldn't be a problem though with all the young bodies. The Phoenix attack should look very crisp against a very young and flawed Sonic defense. Looking gard at the over 223 but will watch tonights game before I pull the trigger here.

Detroit @ Miami
-The 'Stons open the season down in South Beach. This is an improved team this year that actually might be fun to watch for outsiders for once. Maxiell and Hayes had great pre-seasons. Sheed has dropped 30 pounds. Hamilton and Chillups both vow to be more aggressive offensively this season. Too often last year they would be stagnant, especially Chauncey. The young guys will get plenty of run as well. Dice moves into the starting line-up this year and must get off to a good start. He has started slowly till almost January his few years here. Hayes may have been the FA pickup of the offseason value wise. He led in points this preseason and will be a great combo backup to the Ripster and Prince.

As far as the game goes. I expect a business like start from Detroit. They have one guy on Miami to defend and thats Mr. O'Neal. Fouls may mount but Nazr will get some run as well and that will help. I expect a solid game from O'Neal. Lets say about 25 and 12. The thing is, thats it. They do not have the talent around him right now w/o Wade to get it done versus good clubs. Detroit can also nuetralize O'Neal on the other end. Starting McDyess and Wallace makes O'Neal expend energy on defense. It also stretches the floor and creates driving opportunities. This outfit of Detroit will be better suited to stay out of lulls. They should waltz into Miami and win this game rather easily.

Injury notes: Hamilton fine, Hayes sore ankle and Amir is doubtful.

Detroit -4 -110 3 units




Best of luck. Any comments, questions etc leave em in here and I'll answer.
 
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Love it. Heat are a bit of a joke, but especially without Wade. They won't be able to score with Detroit tomorrow. It's going to look a lot like this Mavs-Cavs game.
 
I just realized that 5D opened this game up at Detroit +4.5 just now. Didn't realize it till after they fixed it though. Dammit, would have unloaded before they even knew what him them.
 
the above play, the number will only rise imo. It was at 223 when game started tonight and already at 224 for obvious reasons.
 
Last year, especially early, when Phoenix was winning by 15 or 20 which they likely will be tomorrow I think...I recall quite a lot of holding the ball shit from 6 or even 8 minutes left sometimes in the 4th.

I think you'll really need to have 190-200 in at the end of the third for this to hit. 99-75, for instance.......that's going to be a tuffie.

GL my friend, I sure as hell won't be fading that pick...but against a more deliberate team...perhaps it'd be a good move. It should be entertaining to watch these kids try to defend the pick and roll from Nash and Amare.

:cheers:
 
redbearde said:
Last year, especially early, when Phoenix was winning by 15 or 20 which they likely will be tomorrow I think...I recall quite a lot of holding the ball shit from 6 or even 8 minutes left sometimes in the 4th.

I think you'll really need to have 190-200 in at the end of the third for this to hit. 99-75, for instance.......that's going to be a tuffie.

GL my friend, I sure as hell won't be fading that pick...but against a more deliberate team...perhaps it'd be a good move. It should be entertaining to watch these kids try to defend the pick and roll from Nash and Amare.

:cheers:
Click to expand...

This young and green Seattle team will get torched tomorrow night defensively. I think if Sea can hit triple digits themselves the play is pretty safe. I value the PHX offense much moreso than Denvers and both defenses are bad.

I understand your thinking...

this is the best you will see the Phx offense though. Amare fully healthy after slow start last year and Mr. Hill on the wing. They are extra lethal this year.
 
what do you think of a teaser play with pistons and suns ATS? you can even throw in the Suns over as well?
 
BOL B.A.R. my writeup for the detroit game very similiar and we have similiar feelings for this one. we saw today what bad preseason teams could do (cleveland and washington), and miami was the worst

Throw.. I think this one jets up to like 5.5 by gametime- which is when I'll get it with my local :(
 
Riding it with ya, BAR. I like that over play. Phx will put up 130 or so against Sea and Durant and the boys will post 100 easy even on tired legs.

More cash for bait.
 
Durant should definitely play better tomorrow. It's nice to see the Sonics getting two national TV games in a row ... the Hawks have 0 all season, I'm not bitter, haha.
 
BAR what are your thoughts on Phoenix -10, I hate laying that much chalk, but if Denver blows these guys out like they did tonight, how do the Suns not? As good as Denver is offensively, the Suns are a completely different beast, and play better "defense" than the Nuggets. Do you have any thoughts on the spread.

I'm on Detroit as well, pretty large, but at -4.5, I just don't see how Miami can stay competitive, I know Shaq is Shaq, but Detroit can exploit him, and the Heat ingeneral. By all means this game should be a DD win, regardless.
 
BAR, does it worry you that everyone and their mother is going to be on Detroit. I can fathom anyone putting money on Miami right now, why is this number so low? The books would have seen action at -7 I bet. Outside of Shaq, there is no facet of the game in which Miami is equal or even in the same stratosphere as Detroit right now. Shaq will get his, Davis? Please, he'll get some points, but give up just as many to Rip. I've already put a large wager on Detroit, but the books are going to get rocked on this line.

Maybe I'm over analyzing because it's early on. But does it worry you that probably not one person on these forums or the other site, are likely to put money on Miami?
 
Lifesallover...I'll answer to both posts

This line will go up quite a bit tomorrow IMO. I think we see a closing 6 or so. I don't get worried in Nov or april about big public plays. I leave that for the middle of the year.

Phoenix -10 is the only side anyone can bet in that game. Seattle will get points. They shot horrid tonight and missed a lot of FT's. I think they are good for 105 tomorow night. I see the Suns scoring 125 or so. That basically tells you how I lean on that game. I basically need to look at Phx a bit more tomorrow before i play it..if I play it.
 
yeah I was looking at the Suns. If I play it should I do It now cuz dont you think the line will go hell of up b4 tip ?
 
Good lookin' out, this is only my 2nd season so I don't yet have personal trends (like Nov. public plays), thanks for the input, settles my nerves. Pretty much took the words out of my mouth on the Suns game. Goodluck tomorrow.:cheers:
 
Throwback420 said:
yeah I was looking at the Suns. If I play it should I do It now cuz dont you think the line will go hell of up b4 tip ?
Click to expand...
It will...prolly..I just don't want to rush it. Going to look at it a bit in next few hours and have some cfb to do as well.
 
Here's the one thing that worries me about this game: Ricky Davis (Ill assume he's playing, eventhough he wasnt mentioned in your write up).

Miami was a straight fade material in the preseason because they couldnt score and were getting outrebounded every game.

Zo and Shaq barely played during the pre-season.
Smush was probably the most offensively gifted player on the floor for the Heat. Ricky Davis will play a similar role in the offense with wade out. He'll be the primary catalyst from the perimeter.

The last time he played with a low post threat was in Clev with the Big Z. Coincidentally both players had their best in year in the NBA to date. I think Ricky comes to play knowing that Shaq is inside, which will allow him to penetrate and get more open looks.

Still undecided on this game. (Just playing devils advocate in this one).
 
Nice take t-dot. Davis does give them some offense, but are him and Shaq enough? Smush/Cook/Haslem/Hardaway/Williams don't worry me at all. Shaq should abuse the paint, but what kind of shape is he in, we all know he is old, but there is no way he is in game shape tomorrow, can he play more than 30 minutes?
 
I would be careful here. This reminds of me of a game on March 2, 2007 on ESPN last season where everyone was on Detroit laying points in Miami because DWade was not playing & Shaq came out and flat out dominated the game. Miami went up 20+ then Detroit came back but fell short in the final seconds.
 
Hey BAR, what does the rotation look like for the pistons, are they going to play 9 deep or 8 with Stucky out?
 
yes, rip is out. it's confirmed

are we still doing det-4.0 or -4.5?

or should we hedge and just take the juice? :seeya:
 
Detroit starting shooting guard Richard Hamilton will not be playing in tonight's opener against Miami so he can tend to a family situation involving his child. As of right now, Hamilton is considered probable for Friday's game against Orlando.

In Hamilton's place, rookie Arron Afflalo will be making his first NBA start
Click to expand...
.


Well, here is my feeling. Detroit is still the side in this game. Murray will play quite a bit and Hayes had a great preseason. The scoring can almost be replaced and Affalo is going to be a great defender in his career as it moves forward.

I see the line has moved back down. I would advise just a regular play on it now. I may sell some off. I may not. Need to look at my options. I strill like the side though and think Detrioit can cover easily. Of the two in the backcourt, they always struggle more when Billups is out rather than Hamilton.
 
Let me also say, and I have an article. Detroit is taking this opening month seriously. They have a tough schedule so they cannot let up against these average teams. They love playing on the road and typically play better there.






AUBURN HILLS -- When you have had the kind of road success the Detroit Pistons have had in recent years, you have to wonder whether their schedule needs a little toughening up.
How does eight of the first 10 on the road sound?

"Daunting!" Pistons coach Flip Saunders said.
The Pistons are the only NBA team to play more than six road games within their first 10.
"That's cool," Pistons forward Rasheed Wallace said. "That means eight of our last 10 are going to be at home during the end of the season."
Actually, Detroit plays seven of its last 11 at The Palace, but there is a lot of basketball to be played before then.
And it starts in Miami tonight, the first of what is shaping up to be one of the most difficult schedules Detroit has had to open a season.
Wallace, like most of his teammates, isn't too worried about the schedule because the Pistons have been one of the NBA's elite road teams. Last season, they won more games (27) on the road than they did at home (26).
"It's always more fun to go in someone else's house and kick their (butt), then beating them here at home," Wallace said. "I've always been like that, and the majority of the players on this team are like that. We'd rather go into someone else's house and get that 'W.' "
Saunders rarely talks about games too far into the future. But with eight of the first 10 on the road, he had to make an exception this time. Following the team's practice on Tuesday, Saunders spoke with his players about the importance of this opening stretch of games.
"Our guys are aware of our road trip," Saunders said. "We approach it from the standpoint of, let's take care of ourselves. It starts with going down to Miami."
In the past, Detroit's starters have often started games slowly, only to finish with a flurry.
With so many road games to start the season, that pattern would prove disastrous for a team that has won at least five of its first 10 games every year since the 2001-2002 season.
The importance of a fast start is not lost on Saunders, whose Detroit teams have averaged seven wins after the first 10 games.
"It's a process," he said. "You don't win games by just going out and playing. You have to go through the process of playing well, and not beating yourself, and not turning the ball over and making free throws down the stretch. You do those things, you give yourself a chance to win."
The Pistons have won 27 road games in each of Saunders' two seasons in Detroit.
The challenge of winning will be even greater this year if Detroit follows through with playing more young players.
"It's going to be tough for the young guys who ain't used to playing," Pistons forward Antonio McDyess said. "Guys coming off the bench ... guys just have to be ready."
The same goes for the veterans who will finally start to play their regular minutes after seeing limited action during the preseason.
"In the preseason, they knew they were playing anywhere from 12 to 20 minutes," Saunders said. "Now they know they'll be playing in the 30s."
But if they struggle early, Saunders will look to the bench quicker than he has in the past.
"They know that now if they don't do it, there's an opportunity that someone else might be in their spot, and play more," Saunders said.
 
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