36-28-1 +15.80 units
4-2 and up a small amount yesterday. The two bigger plays both lost. It happens though. I was going to moneyline the Knicks too, oh well.
A lot of hype leading up to this game tonight down in Orlando. Its the biggest regular season game in 14 years down there since the heydey of O'Neal/Penny. Coming off an excellent Western swing in which they won on three division leaders floors, the Magic have had several days to wait for the Boston game. The Celtics meanwhile have regained their swagger after the mini-slump and won with ease last night down in Miami in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated.
I mwant to look at the line first. Generally as we know there is a 6-7 point swing on lines from home and away between teams. This obviously can vary depending on venues, injuries, scheduling and circumstances. The game in early December was around 8 to 8.5 in favor of the Celtics. Now, Orlando was just starting to round into form then and Nelson sat out. This game tonight has lined up as 5 point Orlando chalk. Thats a 13 point variance. Obviously as stated before there are reasons but at same point is this a bit extreme? The games in Orlando last year were around 1 to 1.5 in favor of Orlando. Obviously Orlando is a very hot team right now that has been surging but imo the line is a bit high. Sometimes thats for a reason and other times a teams value is overstated for a particular situation.
The key to beating this Orlando team is to stop Dwight Howards from having a big impact. You may say "Well duh, BAR". Easier said than done. The one team that plays Howard better than any other team is Detroit. It's why Detroit has toyed with this team the past few years. It's also why Detroit is one of the last two teams to beat Orlando this year. Good inside defense limits Howard which makes the other cogs less effective. This is a great three point shooting team but they need it to work inside out to beat elite teams. Thats what was working out West.
In this years only meeting Boston held Dwight to 14 pts on 5-12 from the floor. Conversely the team shot 5-26 from behind the arc. Coincidence? Not so much. It's an easy recipe to beating the Magic. Its performing this task that is much harder to do.
Do I think Boston can do this? Absolutely. They have obviously one of the top defenses in the game. With KG and Perkins inside(who shook off rust hopefully last night) they can pack it in and make it tough for Howard with their size and length.
Now, thats my technical aspect to this play. Lets go to what I think is this biggest factor. Orlando is still an up and coming team. I have seen this all to often over the years. They have had 5 days to think about this matchup. The arena is going to be jammed and loud tonight. Their will be a lot of anticipation as the fans/team try and make a statement to the champs. Guess what, this leads to a lot of pressure and usually a defalting performance. Flip to the other side, championship teams love this situation. Nothing better than going into a hostile arena and showing the young pups your still boss. I think thats what happens tonight in this game. Lessons stillk to be learned....
Boston ML +175 2.5 units
4-2 and up a small amount yesterday. The two bigger plays both lost. It happens though. I was going to moneyline the Knicks too, oh well.
A lot of hype leading up to this game tonight down in Orlando. Its the biggest regular season game in 14 years down there since the heydey of O'Neal/Penny. Coming off an excellent Western swing in which they won on three division leaders floors, the Magic have had several days to wait for the Boston game. The Celtics meanwhile have regained their swagger after the mini-slump and won with ease last night down in Miami in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated.
I mwant to look at the line first. Generally as we know there is a 6-7 point swing on lines from home and away between teams. This obviously can vary depending on venues, injuries, scheduling and circumstances. The game in early December was around 8 to 8.5 in favor of the Celtics. Now, Orlando was just starting to round into form then and Nelson sat out. This game tonight has lined up as 5 point Orlando chalk. Thats a 13 point variance. Obviously as stated before there are reasons but at same point is this a bit extreme? The games in Orlando last year were around 1 to 1.5 in favor of Orlando. Obviously Orlando is a very hot team right now that has been surging but imo the line is a bit high. Sometimes thats for a reason and other times a teams value is overstated for a particular situation.
The key to beating this Orlando team is to stop Dwight Howards from having a big impact. You may say "Well duh, BAR". Easier said than done. The one team that plays Howard better than any other team is Detroit. It's why Detroit has toyed with this team the past few years. It's also why Detroit is one of the last two teams to beat Orlando this year. Good inside defense limits Howard which makes the other cogs less effective. This is a great three point shooting team but they need it to work inside out to beat elite teams. Thats what was working out West.
In this years only meeting Boston held Dwight to 14 pts on 5-12 from the floor. Conversely the team shot 5-26 from behind the arc. Coincidence? Not so much. It's an easy recipe to beating the Magic. Its performing this task that is much harder to do.
Do I think Boston can do this? Absolutely. They have obviously one of the top defenses in the game. With KG and Perkins inside(who shook off rust hopefully last night) they can pack it in and make it tough for Howard with their size and length.
Now, thats my technical aspect to this play. Lets go to what I think is this biggest factor. Orlando is still an up and coming team. I have seen this all to often over the years. They have had 5 days to think about this matchup. The arena is going to be jammed and loud tonight. Their will be a lot of anticipation as the fans/team try and make a statement to the champs. Guess what, this leads to a lot of pressure and usually a defalting performance. Flip to the other side, championship teams love this situation. Nothing better than going into a hostile arena and showing the young pups your still boss. I think thats what happens tonight in this game. Lessons stillk to be learned....
Boston ML +175 2.5 units
