TNF 11/14 WEEK 11

[Loves2kickass]

Washington @ Philadelphia

Washington 26-23/26-24 type game with slim possibility of a 24-24 close game at some point. The difference in these teams is very close but factoring in home/away turnovers gives Washington a small edge. In a game evenly played without several turnovers I have Philadelphia in a 23-21/24-21 type game. Both scenarios provides value with Washington.

The game total currently at 49.5 looks pretty close to the predicted outcome and no value there, unless of course, turnovers aren't a factor. In that case the under has value.

These are just estimates of what my figures show. In a nutshell it appears if Philadelphia wins the game should finish under the total and if Washington wins the total is higher, right near the current total.

My bets are...
Commanders +4
Commanders/Eagles Alt Total 56.5un -250

 

[Ticketwindow]

Good health! I am on the other side and I foresee the Eagles running at will. Shall see

 

[Inspekdah]

Washington @ Philadelphia

Washington 26-23/26-24 type game with slim possibility of a 24-24 close game at some point. The difference in these teams is very close but factoring in home/away turnovers gives Washington a small edge. In a game evenly played without several turnovers I have Philadelphia in a 23-21/24-21 type game. Both scenarios provides value with Washington.

The game total currently at 49.5 looks pretty close to the predicted outcome and no value there, unless of course, turnovers aren't a factor. In that case the under has value.

These are just estimates of what my figures show. In a nutshell it appears if Philadelphia wins the game should finish under the total and if Washington wins the total is higher, right near the current total.

My bets are...
Commanders +4
Commanders/Eagles Alt Total 56.5un -250

Eagles haven’t played a winning team with a pulse in their 5 game run. Expect them soon to go Big Dom mode and lose out.

 

[Inspekdah]

Good health! I am on the other side and I foresee the Eagles running at will. Shall see

Rush #s def give me pause as a potential Redskins backer

 

[Loves2kickass]

It appears BetMGM will get a nice middle if the Eagles win by 3 or less. Eagles backers are taking the -4 and Commanders backers the money line. I'll gladly take the Eagles 24-21 predictive score or any 3 point game below a mid 50's total.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Here's my official numbers for the game tonight. I used these as a starting point to use for total points scored.

Phi 22.48-18.31(-5.67) 40.79 (off vs def)
Phi 24.98-24.62(-1.86) 49.60 (def vs off)
Phi 23.73-21.47(-2.26) 45.20 (avg)
Was 25.47-23.73(-1.74) 49.2 (TO's incl)

 

[Loves2kickass]

Phi 22.48-18.31(-5.67) 40.79 (off vs def)
Phi 24.98-24.62(-1.86) 49.60 (def vs off)
Phi 23.73-21.47(-2.26) 45.20 (avg)
Was 25.47-23.73(-1.74) 49.2 (TO's incl)

The closest of the predictive lines in bold with the exact score for Wash along with cover and under. A low turnover game in red missed the game total by 1 point and also finished under the game total.

 

[B.A.R.]

Dead ass under, no doubt.