Titans vs. Jaguars NFL Week 18 Betting Preview: Titans to Hang Tight with Jaguars
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, January 7, 2023 at 8:15 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
Best Bet: Titans +6.5 at -104 with BetOnline
The Odds
Jacksonville is favored in this game by around a touchdown.
This spread seems too disrespectful toward the Titans.
They have lost three games by more than seven points.
Two of those teams were two of the strongest regular season teams, Buffalo and Philadelphia.
The third game was actually Jacksonville.
In Week 14, Jacksonville beat Tennessee 36-22.
Should we expect the Week 14 result to repeat itself on Saturday?
To answer this question, let's investigate how this result came about.
Week 14 Review
The Week 14 matchup started with Tennessee lighting up Jacksonville's defense -- the Titans kept matching up and down the field.
In particular, star running back Derrick Henry beasted the Jaguar defense, as he is known for doing.
Henry's YPC average in that game was 7.1, the highest of his season.
He also flexed somewhat his strengthened function as a pass-catcher.
The main problem was that Henry only carried the ball 17 times, while Tennessee's quarterback attempted 38 passes.
Despite marching out to early leads, the Titans fell significantly behind, forcing them to prioritize their pass attack, which is the weakest aspect of their offense.
The latter misfortune is a product of another unfortunate anomaly.
That is, Tennessee had to become pass-first because it had an absurd problem with turning the ball over.
16 of Jacksonville's 36 points came off of drives that totaled fewer than 50 yards.
Tennessee turned the ball over four times, with one fumble leading to a short Jaguar touchdown drive and at least one other turnover disrupting a Titan offensive drive that, having positioned the offense deep in Jaguar territory, surely would have led to Titan points.
Jacksonville's 14-point win in Tennessee was thus somewhat of a freak occurrence.
It was, as I will now describe, also a product of injury luck.
The Significance of Kristian Fulton, Denico Autry, and Jeffery Simmons
Jaguar supporters will hinge their argument on the passing prowess of ascendant youngster, quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
But Lawrence got to face a Titan defense missing crucial players: top cornerback Kristian Fulton did not play, nor did team sack-leader Denico Autry, and high-quality defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons, who has 7.5 sacks and eight run stuffs on the season, was invisible.
Fulton alone is decisive. The Titans have not allowed more than 22 points in any game in which Fulton started and made it past the second quarter.
In addition to Fulton, the Titans would benefit from the pass-rushing prowess of Autry and Simmons.
Take away the points (and momentum) gifted off turnovers, and add a few of Tennessee's top defensive players, and it is easy to see how Tennessee could have beaten Jacksonville in Week 14 and, despite being dogged by a touchdown, could beat the Jaguars in Week 18, in order to prevent Jacksonville from sweeping Tennessee for the first time since 2005.
Autry and Fulton logged limited practices last week and, along with Henry, were kept out of playing in a meaningless game against Dallas for precautionary reasons.
The Significance of Treylon Burks
In Week 14, Tennessee also missed its top wide receiver, Treylon Burks.
Burks has grown into a menace, with his big-play ability repeatedly being evident -- he used this ability to victimize Green Bay, for example, to the tune of 111 receiving yards.
Burks is a quarterback's best friend because a quarterback just has to throw it up to him.
He is elite at grabbing contested catches -- he ranks fifth in contested catch rate.
In this last respect, he resembles other highly skilled wide receivers who thrived against the Jaguar secondary, such as Michael Pittman, and Terry McLaurin.
With his physical skill set, Burks will help out his quarterback -- surely the more experienced Joshua Dobbs.
The Verdict
The spread is too generous to Jacksonville, which won't be able to rely on Tennessee turnovers to gift it a significant lead.
In a tighter game or a game in which Tennessee leads, Tennessee gets to feature Henry against one of his favorite opponents.
We should expect either sort of game because of the rehabilitation of Tennessee's defense with Autry, Simmons, and Fulton playing and because of Burks.
You may want to check the injury report to be sure -- if Fulton actually doesn't play, then Lawrence will help his team score enough points against a would-be too heavily beleaguered Titan secondary for the "over' to hit.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, January 7, 2023 at 8:15 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville
Best Bet: Titans +6.5 at -104 with BetOnline
The Odds
Jacksonville is favored in this game by around a touchdown.
This spread seems too disrespectful toward the Titans.
They have lost three games by more than seven points.
Two of those teams were two of the strongest regular season teams, Buffalo and Philadelphia.
The third game was actually Jacksonville.
In Week 14, Jacksonville beat Tennessee 36-22.
Should we expect the Week 14 result to repeat itself on Saturday?
To answer this question, let's investigate how this result came about.
Week 14 Review
The Week 14 matchup started with Tennessee lighting up Jacksonville's defense -- the Titans kept matching up and down the field.
In particular, star running back Derrick Henry beasted the Jaguar defense, as he is known for doing.
Henry's YPC average in that game was 7.1, the highest of his season.
He also flexed somewhat his strengthened function as a pass-catcher.
The main problem was that Henry only carried the ball 17 times, while Tennessee's quarterback attempted 38 passes.
Despite marching out to early leads, the Titans fell significantly behind, forcing them to prioritize their pass attack, which is the weakest aspect of their offense.
The latter misfortune is a product of another unfortunate anomaly.
That is, Tennessee had to become pass-first because it had an absurd problem with turning the ball over.
16 of Jacksonville's 36 points came off of drives that totaled fewer than 50 yards.
Tennessee turned the ball over four times, with one fumble leading to a short Jaguar touchdown drive and at least one other turnover disrupting a Titan offensive drive that, having positioned the offense deep in Jaguar territory, surely would have led to Titan points.
Jacksonville's 14-point win in Tennessee was thus somewhat of a freak occurrence.
It was, as I will now describe, also a product of injury luck.
The Significance of Kristian Fulton, Denico Autry, and Jeffery Simmons
Jaguar supporters will hinge their argument on the passing prowess of ascendant youngster, quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
But Lawrence got to face a Titan defense missing crucial players: top cornerback Kristian Fulton did not play, nor did team sack-leader Denico Autry, and high-quality defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons, who has 7.5 sacks and eight run stuffs on the season, was invisible.
Fulton alone is decisive. The Titans have not allowed more than 22 points in any game in which Fulton started and made it past the second quarter.
In addition to Fulton, the Titans would benefit from the pass-rushing prowess of Autry and Simmons.
Take away the points (and momentum) gifted off turnovers, and add a few of Tennessee's top defensive players, and it is easy to see how Tennessee could have beaten Jacksonville in Week 14 and, despite being dogged by a touchdown, could beat the Jaguars in Week 18, in order to prevent Jacksonville from sweeping Tennessee for the first time since 2005.
Autry and Fulton logged limited practices last week and, along with Henry, were kept out of playing in a meaningless game against Dallas for precautionary reasons.
The Significance of Treylon Burks
In Week 14, Tennessee also missed its top wide receiver, Treylon Burks.
Burks has grown into a menace, with his big-play ability repeatedly being evident -- he used this ability to victimize Green Bay, for example, to the tune of 111 receiving yards.
Burks is a quarterback's best friend because a quarterback just has to throw it up to him.
He is elite at grabbing contested catches -- he ranks fifth in contested catch rate.
In this last respect, he resembles other highly skilled wide receivers who thrived against the Jaguar secondary, such as Michael Pittman, and Terry McLaurin.
With his physical skill set, Burks will help out his quarterback -- surely the more experienced Joshua Dobbs.
The Verdict
The spread is too generous to Jacksonville, which won't be able to rely on Tennessee turnovers to gift it a significant lead.
In a tighter game or a game in which Tennessee leads, Tennessee gets to feature Henry against one of his favorite opponents.
We should expect either sort of game because of the rehabilitation of Tennessee's defense with Autry, Simmons, and Fulton playing and because of Burks.
You may want to check the injury report to be sure -- if Fulton actually doesn't play, then Lawrence will help his team score enough points against a would-be too heavily beleaguered Titan secondary for the "over' to hit.
