Titans vs Falcons Week 4 NFL Odds & Predictions
Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
When/Where: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Odds: Falcons -4, O/U 46
TV: FOX
One fact that oddsmakers don’t seem to account for is a team’s recent history against teams from a certain conference. Under Dan Quinn, the Falcons are suffering 1-9 SU and 0-12 ATS streaks against AFC teams.
A lot will need to change for Atlanta to buck that trend against Tennessee. One consistent problem has been its run defense. Last year, the Falcons’ run defense ranked 30th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). This year, the run defense was supposed to improve with healthier players.
But that improvement hasn’t seem to come. In Week 1, Minnesota’s top two running backs ran 30 times for 160 yards. After facing a pass-heavy Philadelphia in Week 2, Atlanta sold out to stop the run against Indianapolis in week 3 only to get picked apart by former backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett.
Colt running back Marlon Mack still mustered 4.6 yards mostly because Atlanta still struggles to set the edge, allowing opposing running backs to escape on outside runs.
On Sunday, stopping inside runs up the gut could likewise become a problem if Grady Jarrett doesn’t suit up. Atlanta’s starting defensive tackle is listed as ‚questionable‘ with a toe injury that forced him to exit last Sunday’s game and that will reportedly keep him out of practice for at least the majority of this week.
Leading up to its game against the Colts, Atlanta ranked only 19th in run defense. Stopping the run, though, would be crucial against a run-heavy Tennessee offense — the Titans ranked second in run play percentage last year and that ranking has dropped to 13th only because they played from behind last game.
After being quiet last Thursday night, expect Derrick Henry to play a key role against Atlanta’s run defense. Before that game he was averaging 4.88 YPC and his YPC (4.61) actually trumps Zeke Elliot’s YPC by .7 over their past 500 carries.
Establishing the run will be important for Tennessee, which it wasn’t able to do against Jacksonville. The Jaguars led almost from the very beginning thanks to a muffed punt and they finished the first quarter up 14-0.
But when the Titans come out with renewed focus against Atlanta, Tennessee will be able to run its desired style of offense. Quarterback Marcus Mariota did look terrible on Thursday. But in Atlanta’s defense he won’t have to contend with a top-tiered pass rush and two of the league’s better cornerbacks. While leaning on Henry, he should make good use of the play action and execute more like he did in Tennessee’s opener.
Atlanta’s offense can't benefit from the same balance. Like last year, the Falcons lack any sort of running game. Currently, Devonta Freeman leads Atlanta’s healthy running backs with 3.7 YPC while backup Ito Smith is in the concussion protocol.
This lack of offensive balance places a significant burden on the shoulders of Matt Ryan. While he was often sharp against Indianapolis last week, he continued to make crucial mistakes in crucial spots like in front of the goal line and elsewhere. So far, he’s averaged two interceptions per game.
Before its no-show on Thursday Night, Tennessee’s pass defense ranked fifth in DVOA thanks to guys like Logan Ryan, who last year ranked fifth in yards allowed per coverage snap in the slot, and Adoree Jackson, who was one of the most reliable corners in defending passes of 15 yards or more. They can slow down Atlanta’s pass attack.
Both offensively and defensively, Tennessee will be much sharper with extra time to prepare after being embarrassed by its rival on national TV. In terms of the total, the „under“ will hit because Tennessee’s offense will milk a lot of clock by using its ground game to control tempo and its defense will do enough to keep Ryan in check.
Picks: Titans +4 & Under 44
Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
When/Where: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Odds: Falcons -4, O/U 46
TV: FOX
One fact that oddsmakers don’t seem to account for is a team’s recent history against teams from a certain conference. Under Dan Quinn, the Falcons are suffering 1-9 SU and 0-12 ATS streaks against AFC teams.
A lot will need to change for Atlanta to buck that trend against Tennessee. One consistent problem has been its run defense. Last year, the Falcons’ run defense ranked 30th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). This year, the run defense was supposed to improve with healthier players.
But that improvement hasn’t seem to come. In Week 1, Minnesota’s top two running backs ran 30 times for 160 yards. After facing a pass-heavy Philadelphia in Week 2, Atlanta sold out to stop the run against Indianapolis in week 3 only to get picked apart by former backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett.
Colt running back Marlon Mack still mustered 4.6 yards mostly because Atlanta still struggles to set the edge, allowing opposing running backs to escape on outside runs.
On Sunday, stopping inside runs up the gut could likewise become a problem if Grady Jarrett doesn’t suit up. Atlanta’s starting defensive tackle is listed as ‚questionable‘ with a toe injury that forced him to exit last Sunday’s game and that will reportedly keep him out of practice for at least the majority of this week.
Leading up to its game against the Colts, Atlanta ranked only 19th in run defense. Stopping the run, though, would be crucial against a run-heavy Tennessee offense — the Titans ranked second in run play percentage last year and that ranking has dropped to 13th only because they played from behind last game.
After being quiet last Thursday night, expect Derrick Henry to play a key role against Atlanta’s run defense. Before that game he was averaging 4.88 YPC and his YPC (4.61) actually trumps Zeke Elliot’s YPC by .7 over their past 500 carries.
Establishing the run will be important for Tennessee, which it wasn’t able to do against Jacksonville. The Jaguars led almost from the very beginning thanks to a muffed punt and they finished the first quarter up 14-0.
But when the Titans come out with renewed focus against Atlanta, Tennessee will be able to run its desired style of offense. Quarterback Marcus Mariota did look terrible on Thursday. But in Atlanta’s defense he won’t have to contend with a top-tiered pass rush and two of the league’s better cornerbacks. While leaning on Henry, he should make good use of the play action and execute more like he did in Tennessee’s opener.
Atlanta’s offense can't benefit from the same balance. Like last year, the Falcons lack any sort of running game. Currently, Devonta Freeman leads Atlanta’s healthy running backs with 3.7 YPC while backup Ito Smith is in the concussion protocol.
This lack of offensive balance places a significant burden on the shoulders of Matt Ryan. While he was often sharp against Indianapolis last week, he continued to make crucial mistakes in crucial spots like in front of the goal line and elsewhere. So far, he’s averaged two interceptions per game.
Before its no-show on Thursday Night, Tennessee’s pass defense ranked fifth in DVOA thanks to guys like Logan Ryan, who last year ranked fifth in yards allowed per coverage snap in the slot, and Adoree Jackson, who was one of the most reliable corners in defending passes of 15 yards or more. They can slow down Atlanta’s pass attack.
Both offensively and defensively, Tennessee will be much sharper with extra time to prepare after being embarrassed by its rival on national TV. In terms of the total, the „under“ will hit because Tennessee’s offense will milk a lot of clock by using its ground game to control tempo and its defense will do enough to keep Ryan in check.
Picks: Titans +4 & Under 44
