time to post my week two card so far

bamabradley2424 said:
I really wanna hammer Georgia ML. I really like Fromm. I totally get the first start in south bend etc... but UGA I believe will pound those backs and grind out a win
Click to expand...
I loved Eason but Fromm gave him a run for his money in camp. Tells me a lot, or at least I am hopeful. I like what Georgia brings to this game in the trenches. Should be able to grind yards on ND and Fromm is capable imo. Notre Dame QB looks good though so definitely think this is a competitive game but I have to admit, I also like UGA to win straight up.
 
I'm just glad to be back betting and back on here discussing and talking with u guys lol. Been a long damn road again
 
Indiana - Based on things I have read concerning UVA taking William and Mary seriously after last years opening loss to an FCS squad, and with Indiana having extra time to prepare for uva themselves after the weeknight game, I was a little less worried about the possibility that uva planned for this while Indiana spent all summer getting ready for ohio state. UVA struggled moving it against william and mary, getting less than 20 first downs and throwing for their fourth score very late when the game was already decided. I have a hard time seeing them moving the ball consistently on Indiana, whose defense, when rested, is pretty solid. Good news is that indiana will have FIU the week after this and I don't think they can make that line big enough so a loss to uva probably lines up as pretty good value against an FIU secondary that just won't match up. UVA lost their best defensive back last week and that doesn't bode well here for them either in my estimation. Better offense, better defense and better qb .. hope that is enough for the road win
 
My favorite Don Best injury update for this week....


09/04/17 WR Kendric Pryor Facial is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Florida Atlantic
 
Thank you for your response, vk. It's always good to get your opinion.:shake:
 
A few games that I am eyeing for tomorrow that I have yet to wager on

Arizona State -3 - I only saw bits and pieces of the opener. I thought ASU looked generally good but there seemed to be some pass protection issues and the line did not win the line of scrimmage as easily as one would expect vs an improved but by no means stout nmsu front 7. I leaned this early on but was reluctant to play at the numbers offered but now this looks kind of appealing to me. SDSU is no easy out though. Penny is still a good RB and Chapman is at least good enough to make you pay for overdefending the run and their defense usually tackles better than most. i also trust the SDSU staff more than I trust Graham and company both at game preparation and game management. Still, this line basically says either sdsu is superior to ASU or about even to ASU. Not far-fetched by any stretch but certainly not the case by my numbers.

UTEP - I am actually eyeing a second half play. Miners lost a key defender to ejection in week one and the kid has to sit the first half of the game. Gonna have fresh legs for the 2h to give the defense and team a boost, I think. I also prefer Metz to their current RB group, so if behind a score, maybe coach K opens it up a little more vertically than they tried to against OU. He may have been trying to keep Metz alive for conference play in the opener. He had no time to throw all game so allowing him to throw deep was problematic. Little doubt UTEP has the better offense but that defense is putrid. Situation will need to be right but I am already eyeing this as having potential.

USC - I don't necessarily like them but everyone and their mommy and their mommy's mommy seems to be on Stanford. Maybe it is just that easy and Stanford just lines up and runs it down the trojans throat. I have a feeling USC loads the box, makes the Stanford QB try to beat them with questionable targets and two new tackles. I will likely avoid the game but it is starting to take on a certain smell that is all too familiar to me on bets of my own when everyone is on the same side. Darnold will get pts somehow. I like both coaches but nod to Stanford there. Nod to their style being a good cover style too and easier to execute. Ya I probably pass on this ... but I know a bad smell when I come across it and I think you should be concerned about being dutch ovened in this game if you are backing the tree.

Nebraska - Probably too late and will probably not see 14 again. By PR I should have played this after it got bet up but I have new found reason for optimism with Oregon (coach might actually fit) and new found concern for the Nebraska defense. I think it is probably an ok ticket but I doubt it would ever feel like an ok ticket until the moment it is being cashed in. lost the number so likely avoiding.

MTSU - Getting more against Cuse than against Vandy. Interesting.

Game I want to watch but won't:NMSU/New Mexico. Facebook?
 
Just to add something on Arz St, not sure how much it might have effected the sack numbers vs NMSt, but I think they did not want Wilkins running as much as he has before. I can't remember some of the plays now, but if the coaches wanted him to stay put more that may've led to NMSt's pressure getting home more.

I tend to lean Arz St here as well.

I'm pretty sure you don't have to be a facebook member to watch that NMST-NM game. I think you can just go to the site and watch the stream. I'm not a facebook member and saw some of their stream from the Idaho St - Utah St game.

Good luck as always today Kyle!
 
value check. Utilizing Pinny. me/pinny/game diff/running diff


Purdue -4 Winner closed -3 *-1
Buffalo 16.5 14.5 2 *1
Iowa -2 -3 1 *2
Ville -8 -9.5 1.5 *3.5
Indiana -3 -3.5 1 *4.5
Penn State -20 -21 1 *5.5
Tulsa -15 -14 -1 *4.5
Tulane 14 10 4 *8.5
Auburn 7 (-120 buy) 5 1.5 *10
Georgia 7 (-120 buy) 4.5 2 *12
Unlv 8 6 2 *14
Washington State -9.5 -10 0,5 *14.5
Miss State -8 -9.5 *1.5 16
Oklahoma 7.5 7.5 0 16
Mizz -2.5 -3 0.5 *16.5
Wake Forest 1 pick 1 17.5

So more than a point average per game the best of it even after waiting for it to be beat up. Have to be happy with that. Two games appear to be against me, Purdue (already won and covered) and Tulsa. I think I mentioned Tulsa was one of the plays I considered weaker. Also, with 16 being a somewhat dead number, not sure why I didn't wait to see if a 14 popped there. Won't be surprised if tOsu ends up closing higher than 7.5 as well once the public hits in the morning.

Totals
FAU/Wisconsin Over 58 59.5 1.5 1.5
Ville/UNC Over 62 62.5 0.5 2
Nwestern/Duke Over 55 55 0 2
UAB/Ball State under 54.5 54 0.5 2.5
MTSU/Cuse Over 76 74.5 -1.5 1
Indiana/UVA Under 57 56.5 0.5 1.5
Wmich/MSU Under 51 49.5 1.5 3
Nebraska/oregon Over 68 68.5 0.5 3.5
Marshall/NCSU Under 55 55 0 3.5
Houston/Arizona Under 70 69 1 4.5
ECU/WVU Under 66 65.5 0.5 5

So about a half pt of value per game on totals which doesn't mean a heck of a lot. mtsu/cuse over is the only game that moved against me on the totals. Seems reasonable given how incredibly high the total is and given mtsu lack of production the week prior. I am ok with that bet as both teams were in the top ten in plays per game last year. It's a lot of points though, no doubt.
 
Lamar Jackson is the best player in college football. Period. No offensive line and no running game and every defense completely focused on him and he still makes amazing plays.
 
Thanks sigo. I am actually more happy about middling the nw game total to the halftime total. Under was probably the right side in that game fwiw. I will take it though.
 
Agree with your USC thoughts. Liked Uga too but I think I let that number get away from me, should have taken +200 this am.
 
That bet was avoidable I guess. I stalked it for that scenario and wanted to back utep second half if rice had a lead. But the boxscore at halftime had a lot of concerning elements to it that either could have or should have let me avoid. I was also trigger happy but I expected it to be -3 (and would have bet it) so was happy to shoot at anything under that.
 
Thanks for talking me off Idaho, vk.
And kudos on that Buffalo win. lol I found the game painful to watch.
 
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