time to post my week two card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Sides 9-8
Totals 4-7
Halftimes 3-1
Overall 16-16

It was a rough week for me inwhich I laid a three score favorite who lost outright and had two QB's throw for over 300 yards in a first half in games where I held an under ticket. One of those QB's was UCF Milton who is a below average college QB, so you know it was tough sledding. One game pending with the under between the vols and the yellow jackets which will be the difference between a winning and nonwinning week. I seemed to do better on the stronger plays again, holding form with last year. The shotgun/fondy approach hasn't necessarily panned out the best for me so far but I would expect short term fluctuations on the smaller edges anyway. Was nice to see so many other people have a good week. I am jealous of some of them, for sure but also very happy for them. A couple stale numbers. Not sure if it is kosher to post the ville or unlv numbers but I do recommend both even at current. UNLV should beat Idaho this week.

On to this week.

Locked In:

Purdue -4 Winner
Buffalo 16.5 winner
Iowa -2 winner
Ville -8 winner
Miami fl -14 (cancelled Canes wusses)
Indiana -3 winner
Penn State -20 loser
Wake Forest 1 winner
Tulsa -15 winner
Tulane 14 winner
Auburn 7 (-120 buy) Loser
Georgia 7 (-120 buy) Winner
Unlv 8 Winner
Memphis +1 (best value by my numbers - Cancelled event date)
Washington State -9.5 loser
Memphis 3 (prior bet got cancelled on event date change . cancelled)
Miss State -8 Winner
Oklahoma 7.5 Winner
Mizz -2.5 Loser
sides 12-4
Totals
FAU/Wisconsin Over 58 loser
Ville/UNC Over 62 winner
Nwestern/Duke Over 55 winner
UAB/Ball State under 54.5 loser
MTSU/Cuse Over 76 loser
Indiana/UVA Under 57 winner
Wmich/MSU Under 51 winner
Nebraska/oregon Over 68 winner
Marshall/NCSU Under 55 loser
Houston/Arizona Under 70 Winner
ECU/WVU Under 66 loser
Totals 6-5
Halftimes
nw/duke 2h under 27.5 Winner
MTSU/Cuse 2h over 30.5 winner
2h NcState -10 Winner
2h UTEP -2 Loser
Halftimes 3-1

Strong leans
Wake Forest (I am playing Wake Forest, most likely on the ML, I just haven't locked it in yet Moved down and will probably close the favorite so I panic and added)
NMSU 7 (meant to bet it but didn't and now lost some value. Still like. Too volatile. Left it alone. Recommend this game for watching though)
Old Dominion -3 (Umass lost to two opponents I rate lower than odu. Something feels wrong though) Bad gut feeling just laying off.
MTSU 8.5 (lining up to play against vandy, but not interested in over a td here? ponderous) Took the total over instead and after mtsu last game performance don't want two units on them scoring.


Talk me Off leans
Arizona State -4.5
Oklahoma 7.5 (I watched both the ou and tosu games) Added
miss st -7 ( I am low on latech this year though so shrug?) Added
cmich 6 (principle of the thing) Pass
Oklahoma State -28 (I am a believer)
 
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Georgia 7 -120 on the buy - The stats won't bear it out but I thought Temple was able to generate some offense with their running game against the irish which got skewed downward by some big sack yardage. Thought UGA rushed it well against a better rush defense in App St than the below average rush defense nd had last year and the less than stellar rush d they showed week 1. UGA should find success enough to be a quality running dog. There will be a lot made of the Eason injury but there isn't much of a dropoff from Eason to Fromm. I was impressed with the Notre Dame QB and he might find some success against the uga secondary but he also isn't scared to throw into some tight windows too, which could lead to a big play the other way, but make no mistake, I give the Irish the QB edge. I have Georgia rated higher by pr so to get a full td (even if juiced) the best of it is too much to pass on, especially when I think it will be a slower paced game.
 
Georgia is the best team in the SEC-JV so that means they are 2nd to Alabama in the SEC, amirite?
 
They are on par with LSU, BAR

Some totals I want to crush but don't have access at the moment. Pay such a high premium when you gamble the dumb way but I have my personal reasons for doing it this way that go beyond the $.

The Buffalo/Army line is simply wrong. I don't care what anyone tells me and I don't care how much Army wins by, the line is off. Way off.
 
I know.

You'll see some rant from me at some point this year about 'narratives'. That will be my yearly thing(at minimum).

Several of your plays I would lean with, initially.

Question... any obvious overlays after week 1?
 
B.A.R. said:
I know.

You'll see some rant from me at some point this year about 'narratives'. That will be my yearly thing(at minimum).

Several of your plays I would lean with, initially.

Question... any obvious overlays after week 1?
Click to expand...

Meaning were there any games that were obvious overlays that were played last week?

That is always hard to tell. Of the normal games (sorry Howard) only a few come to mind:

Michigan- With the personnel in that game, they could play it 20 times and florida might cover once (and after watching it I am not sure how that one happens).
Penn State - Akron no offensive answer and didn't appear one was forthcoming. PSU did whatever they wanted.
Oklahoma State- President inability to throw did not allow Tulsa to take advantage of any secondary weaknesses for the Cowboys. Again Favorite did whatever they wanted.
LSU- Sadly should have realized that BYU just wouldn't be able to score. Realized it, didn't bet it on the venue change with accompanying line change.
UCF- FIU just not prepared yet under Jones to stop the above average wide receivers. I liked the Panthers. Maybe less obvious due to key defensive ejection.
Terps - Three score dog that was the better football team on the field

Those were the ones that stood out to me .. of course I had three bets going the other way on those sides .. of course.
 
Well, I agree with many of those. I was laughing earlier at the BYU-LSU total...obviously had BYU tt Under but man that game overall was a gift but I had my mind on possible suspensions etc.
 
I meant, moreso, overreactions for this week upcoming. Whether it was the opener or how it has been bet.
 
I don't think that Army line is ridiculous, VK. Leipold is 10-14 ATS at Buffalo, but only 1-6 ATS playing into revenge. Under Leipold, UB is more than 30 points per game worse against an opponent the year after beating them. One of those games was a loss to Albany after beating them 51-14 the year before.

They beat Army as 13-point dogs last year. On top of that, Army won yardage 444-265 and yards per play 5.8 to 4.1. Could easily be another smackdown.
 
VK- MTSU is tough to read. They have a decent QB and WR, but the OL is not good and they have huge question marks at RB. The defense has some major holes as well.

They are just a tough team to analyze, they are pretty good at a couple positions and awful at others. They can into the year on my fade list.

But Syracuse......
 
You get to watch Tulane?

Think Banks is the guy? I didn't get to see Navy, but I HAVE to think.....Navy, in conference in the American......Coach Fritz now the HC at Tulane....he knows the option and variations of......get it a few times a year sometimes

I like the 2 TD number.....

Grab some ML playboy!!!!
 
M.W. said:
I don't think that Army line is ridiculous, VK. Leipold is 10-14 ATS at Buffalo, but only 1-6 ATS playing into revenge. Under Leipold, UB is more than 30 points per game worse against an opponent the year after beating them. One of those games was a loss to Albany after beating them 51-14 the year before.

They beat Army as 13-point dogs last year. On top of that, Army won yardage 444-265 and yards per play 5.8 to 4.1. Could easily be another smackdown.
Click to expand...

Something like a 20 possession regulation last year. Army better be efficient. Jackson might be the best QB in the conference, and if not, he is right there. His targets kind of stink but they at least have size. Army missed a few fgs and buffalo had a TD set up by a fumble last year but if they hold Army to 444 and 5.7 yards per play, they cover with ease again. Jackson is improved from when they played last year too. Minnesota, while not option, is a pretty nice team to play ahead of Army and they held their run game down pretty good. That doesn't always equate, while their run D from last year was not bueno and we already know Army can move it on this team. I just think Buffalo can score some here. And in a low possession type game, that is usually all you need to be close. I admit, I am a Jackson fanboy.
 
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Dollaz said:
VK- MTSU is tough to read. They have a decent QB and WR, but the OL is not good and they have huge question marks at RB. The defense has some major holes as well.

They are just a tough team to analyze, they are pretty good at a couple positions and awful at others. They can into the year on my fade list.

But Syracuse......
Click to expand...

I am probably just backing the over for a game that should have a million plays in it.

I just find it curious that people were lining up to play them in a much worse match up than this given the two numbers. Seems like an overreaction.
 
twinkie13 said:
You get to watch Tulane?

Think Banks is the guy? I didn't get to see Navy, but I HAVE to think.....Navy, in conference in the American......Coach Fritz now the HC at Tulane....he knows the option and variations of......get it a few times a year sometimes

I like the 2 TD number.....

Grab some ML playboy!!!!
Click to expand...

I watched the game on espn3 replay. Great pancake block in Tulanes first drive was my favorite play of the game. Banks looks the part. Looks like balanced rushing attack and he has the ability to throw but it was hard to take much from the game because Grambling cannot tackle and Navy can. Still, the offense looked competent and was executing which hasn't always been the case for past tulane systems of recent memory. Played Navy close last year while getting nothing from that position. Banks is a much better fit. Again, I don't understand why people were very willing to back FAU at single digits in a game that rated to have more plays (wear down the defense) and a defense far more likely to get torched by the navy attack and in the first game under a new head coach and now we get Tulane who I would think almost all of us have as a superior team to FAU at this point in time at two td's. It doesn't make a ton of sense to me, particularly after watching the navy attack with Abey, who did have a ton of yards and decent ypc.... just making a comment based on what I saw and I watched the first three quarters of that game. Shrug. I have no problem with the FAU money, I just don't understand the reluctance to back Tulane in what looks like a better match up. But ya .. Banks looked good .. confident, athletic, and seemed to understand the offense... but it was Grambling. Just as Tulane has some advantages to stopping Navy, the same should apply when Tulane has it.

Some Oline concerns with Tulane.
 
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What do you like about the Sun Devils this year? SDSU would have been a 10-point favorite if this game had been played at the end of last season.
 
Will be against you in CyHawk rivalry. Be big play for me . gl on the rest Kyle.
 
vk said:
Georgia 7 -120 on the buy - The stats won't bear it out but I thought Temple was able to generate some offense with their running game against the irish which got skewed downward by some big sack yardage. Thought UGA rushed it well against a better rush defense in App St than the below average rush defense nd had last year and the less than stellar rush d they showed week 1. UGA should find success enough to be a quality running dog. There will be a lot made of the Eason injury but there isn't much of a dropoff from Eason to Fromm. I was impressed with the Notre Dame QB and he might find some success against the uga secondary but he also isn't scared to throw into some tight windows too, which could lead to a big play the other way, but make no mistake, I give the Irish the QB edge. I have Georgia rated higher by pr so to get a full td (even if juiced) the best of it is too much to pass on, especially when I think it will be a slower paced game.
Click to expand...


Sup VK!! Thought I would poke around the site today and see whats going on. Judging by your assessment of this..i'm interested what you put the over under at...I just hit the under pretty heavy. Will stay away from the game.
 
vk said:
They are on par with LSU, BAR

Some totals I want to crush but don't have access at the moment. Pay such a high premium when you gamble the dumb way but I have my personal reasons for doing it this way that go beyond the $.

The Buffalo/Army line is simply wrong. I don't care what anyone tells me and I don't care how much Army wins by, the line is off. Way off.
Click to expand...

your crazy

army destroyed fordham and the final was even as close as the score indicated. fordham had taken money before the kickoff. fordham had the fourth best offense in the fcs last season and army shut that shit right down. on offense every run play went for 10+ yds. they beat them so fukkin bad the starters were benched at halftime yet they continued to steamroll those fordham fuks like they aint even got a team. i don't think buffalo stands a chance and i'm thinking something like army 84 buffalo 0.
 
sleepy said:
your crazy

army destroyed fordham and the final was even as close as the score indicated. fordham had taken money before the kickoff. fordham had the fourth best offense in the fcs last season and army shut that shit right down. on offense every run play went for 10+ yds. they beat them so fukkin bad the starters were benched at halftime yet they continued to steamroll those fordham fuks like they aint even got a team. i don't think buffalo stands a chance and i'm thinking something like army 84 buffalo 0.
Click to expand...

Something like 9 players or so averaged over 10 yards per carry!

You will be on the over.
 
Thanks Bull.

Hulu gl with old dom. I cannot do it now. With you on the other two though the purdue play is scary.
 
looks like things are moving towards my numbers (again). Can't say I don't offer up line value every week even playing these games late after the smarter and more dedicated knock them around. Wish all the line value would mature into some big days once in awhile. Hundreds of points of value the last two years and nothing to show for it, really. Yes, I am getting bitter.

One last thing, and I am sure most have figured it out with the avatar. But have to say the forum and world are lesser places without smailskid and without Blood. Missed men. Feel it more during football season
 
tee*dub said:
Will be against you in CyHawk rivalry. Be big play for me . gl on the rest Kyle.
Click to expand...

Love this rivalry when the games are close. Most definitely believe ISU is more competent than Wyoming was last week in every sense and all phases. I think it will be close this year. Iowa front 7 D is a beast though, but the rest...Iowa O....? WYO D was able to stuff them a couple of times on 3rd and short, which Iowa would just convert on 4th down then, but still. Stanley? Hawks put it on them last 2 years. Last time in Ames it was 17-17 in the 4th, Hawks won 31-17, surely the result of turnovers as it usually is when the games between these two get ugly.

Thoughts one way or the other, tee*dub, vk?
 
42-3 last year and while I don't think that score is reflective of the difference between the two teams, I don't see where ISU is all that much better year over year (though I think they are better). I get that Beathard tore the clones up a bit and that isn't gonna happen this time but northern Iowa ran for roughly five and half yards a carry which is a yard and a half better than they ran for against ISU last year. Iowa ran for 5.5 last year. Might be a little less without the same pass threat but it should be enough. The ISU final score is deceiving too. They outgained UNI by 27 yards and 14 of their 42 points came by interception return for TD. They had one offensive drive for pts in the first half. And they didn't seem to threaten vertically much at all. Hell, one of their drives was an 18 play td drive that went 77 yards and took 8 and half minutes. Good luck beating Iowa without the occasional chunk play somewhere. And this line is asking ISU to win. I could argue this would be their best win over a quality opponent since 2012. Maybe I cannot make that argument at seasons end if Iowa is a 7-6 team but I wouldn't want to back ISU with a spread this low. There are three average to below average units on the field and one really good unit. And I guess I think that will be the difference. I also think there is general upside for the Iowa offense as the season progresses barring their normal barrage of injuries. Pretty comfortable win for losing three fumbles as well.

Just need to see ISU do it to believe it.
 
One thing to keep in mind with Iowa being stuffed occasionally by Wyoming is that arguably their best lineman was out for that game in center James Daniels. He's expected to be back for ISU, and the rushing totals are skewed a bit by Stanley's sacks. Wadley/Butler averaged nearly 4.9/carry combined.

As an Iowa fan I'm a bit concerned about how the DBs will match up with Lazard and company, but I'm not a big believer in Jacob Park either. Not likely to make a play here either way, but if forced to make a pick with gun to my head, I'd lean Hawkeyes with you. Running game should control the tempo and front seven on D should eat.
 
It will be interesting to see nervous Kirby on sidelines in South Bend. I am not sold on his presence and tactics yet, sorta waiting for him to be exposed. Not sure yet myself, but your points are fundamental and the game will be wonderful to watch, college colors and all. Total on the move up. What do you think that suggests besides the obvious vk?
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
It will be interesting to see nervous Kirby on sidelines in South Bend. I am not sold on his presence and tactics yet, sorta waiting for him to be exposed. Not sure yet myself, but your points are fundamental and the game will be wonderful to watch, college colors and all. Total on the move up. What do you think that suggests besides the obvious vk?
Click to expand...

Wimbush looked good and there was maybe an overreaction to Eason being out in peoples mind? Not sure because it looks a tad high to me now.
 
Adds:

Memphis 3 (prior bet got cancelled on event date change)
FAU/Wisconsin Over 58
Ville/UNC Over 62
Nwestern/Duke Over 55
UAB/Ball State under 54.5
MTSU/Cuse Over 76
Indiana/UVA Under 57
Wmich/MSU Under 51
Nebraska/oregon Over 68
Marshall/NCSU Under 55
Houston/Arizona 70
Wake Forest 1
ECU/WVU Under 66
Miss State -8
Oklahoma 7.5
Mizz -2.5
 
Iowa defense is elite as expected and I rate them even higher than most. Iowa state has two NFL caliber receivers and will face very inexperienced secondary.

But key for me is Stanley's first road start in hostile environment. Take away play action pass to TE (which was good) and he looked terrible. Forcing throws that weren't there, audible gaffs etc. having daniels at center back will help and Iowa state will give up plenty but Stanley's is gonna be a deer in headlights IMO. This is typical Iowa team under frrentz. They will get better and line will be slow to adjust. Iowa state s/b favored IMO. Iowa could win the west but this will be a growing experience for Stanley, and could get ugly. Forget about comparing last year game. Beathard fully heathy at home vs Stanley on road-- not even close.
 
Ya obviously a huge difference at QB for Iowa year over year. I would be shocked if ISU didn't throw an interception though, too.
 
vk said:
Adds:

Memphis 3 (prior bet got cancelled on event date change)
FAU/Wisconsin Over 58
Ville/UNC Over 62
Nwestern/Duke Over 55
UAB/Ball State under 54.5
MTSU/Cuse Over 76
Indiana/UVA Under 57
Wmich/MSU Under 51
Nebraska/oregon Over 68
Marshall/NCSU Under 55
Houston/Arizona 70
Wake Forest 1
ECU/WVU Under 66
Miss State -8
Oklahoma 7.5
Mizz -2.5
Click to expand...


Guess no one is tailing. The answer is under.
 
vk said:
Adds:

Memphis 3 (prior bet got cancelled on event date change)
FAU/Wisconsin Over 58
Ville/UNC Over 62
Nwestern/Duke Over 55
UAB/Ball State under 54.5
MTSU/Cuse Over 76
Indiana/UVA Under 57
Wmich/MSU Under 51
Nebraska/oregon Over 68
Marshall/NCSU Under 55
Houston/Arizona 70
Wake Forest 1
ECU/WVU Under 66
Miss State -8
Oklahoma 7.5
Mizz -2.5
Click to expand...


MTSU/Cuse?
Cuse obv wont match Vandy on the defensive side, but 76 is bold.
Larger numbers becoming the norm, tho.
 
Pardon the late questions but would you explain why U N L V is going to win SU vs Idaho. To me, indications look the opposite but I have no idea about any personnel changes for U N L V from week one ( or Idaho, for that matter) in that loss to Howard. I mean Howard is real bad. I think BC beat them something like 76 zip a year or two ago and even then the second half quarters were shortened.
Also puzzled by your Wake Forest pick. With 100+ games to choose from this is one of the best 15 or 20 ? The books and most gamblers look at this one as a coin flip.
You have made clear your explanation about the Buffalo line, which I note has gone down a point. I do like Army here. Impressed by their demolition of Fordham AND their finish of last season. And finally there is the revenge factor. We'll just to differ on this one. I do like and will play a lot of your other stuff .
Good Luck or Good Health as the case may be.
bull
 
The Wake Forest pick is based on what I saw from BC mostly. Their secondary looks vulnerable, their QB is awful and if they cannot run the ball, they cannot succeed. They only ran for 93 on Wake last year so hard for me to think they go off here. Meanwhile I think wofford can be efficient and I think Dortch is the only skill guy on the field that should scare anyone. I think it is a solid play, certainly more solid had I not waited.

As for unlv. Obviously they weren't ready and their defense is so bad it will look like it isn't ready most games. But they were 5 yards better per pass attempt and 2.4 yards better per rush than Howard so it wasn't like they were the worse team, though they deservedly lost with all the fumbles and mistakes. If this humiliation isn't enough they also have major revenge. They outgained idaho by 161 yards last year but lost in overtime. And while we are all bashing UNLV for the week 1 performance, and we should, let's not forget that Idaho didn't exactly play great last week against Sacramento State either. That is a Sac State team that gave up 30+ i think in all but two a year ago. No reason at all to think that unlv cannot compete here unless you think the howard game is just who they are ... inwhich case you can pretty much fade them every game from here out.

Now that the Memphis game was cancelled, the Buffalo game is the game furthest from my line. And I do agree that Army ended strong with the revenge win in the bowl against unt and of course, the big win against navy .. but Army never did win a game in the second half of the year against an fbs school by this margin. They did crush my miners and ull earlier in the year though. And the 64 pts they scored last week was on 49 plays. Not saying they won't run more than that against buffalo... they will ... because they won't be running for 11 yards a play ... but as I mentioned, it makes for a very short game. I won't be shocked if they run wild on Buffalo. How could I be? But you are asking a lot of Army in this one imo. A lot has been made of the revenge factor and it looks like even Monken has been using it this week .. so I think that is real and the upward move in the total likely means people expect chunk runs from Army. Hoping for a good game as this is the one I am focusing on for the 9AM slate
 
Also, while I am not a sportsinsights type of a bettor. That wake game has moved 3 pts. I don't think a 3 pt move is one where I would say there isn't an opinion somewhere. In fact, it has move 3 pts but per sportsinsights wake has taken just 52% of the bets. Makes me think the bigger money is in agreement.
 
Andrea AdelsonESPN Staff Writer
There is a good chance Andre Smith's comments about Lamar Jackson will end up somewhere in the Louisville locker room. The North Carolina linebacker said this to local reporters in Chapel Hill about their upcoming matchup: "We definitely don't want it to be the Lamar Jackson show. So if he's able to beat us with his arm, then – well, he's not going to beat us at all. I take that back. He's not going to beat us. We're just going to stop anything that he tries to do.
 
I really wanna hammer Georgia ML. I really like Fromm. I totally get the first start in south bend etc... but UGA I believe will pound those backs and grind out a win
 
There seems to be a lot of concern about the ville offense and they do have pass protection issues but they still managed 524 yards and had 180 more yards than Purdue last week. Between that performance where they fumbled twice at the one yard line and the bulletin board stuff, I think Ville will be prepared to play. The difference at QB between the two teams is huge.
 
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