Time to post my week 9 card so far

RetroVK · Oct 22, 2007

Went 4-3 last week and feel pretty good about how I capped the games. wins on houston ( easy) northwestern ( maybe my luckiest win of the year ), under nevada/utah state ( correct side as it went under despite punt return for td and two turnovers near the wrong goallines tht resulted in td's ) and under cincinnati/pitt ( also the right side though had cincy scored a late td and forced ot it could have been a moose. The losers were .. USF ( would bet instantly again and do not want to rehash official reviews, offensive pass interferences , fake punts , fake field goals and suspect officiating from beginning to end ), over arkansas/olemiss ( coin flip as it fell two points short and both teams missed field goals and scoring opportunities and arkansas was taking a knee at the ole miss 12 yardline to end the game. louisville was the only loser that i would not bet again and i lost that game on a fair catch punt return for td. Still uconn played the better game in my mind as they turned it over deep in ville territory , were stopped on downs deep in ville territory , had a fumble returned for a score against them and possibly had a first and goal from the one stolen from them as a punt may have hit a ville player and was recovered at the cardinal 1 yardline. Not sure it hit him , but the players sure reacted like it did. On to this week, where i see a lot of value in the big ten. This makes me happy as i am 6-1 this year in games involving big ten schools. for what it is worth .. which isn't much this year, here is what i have done and am looking at so far this week. good luck to everyone. as always, any input about any of my games , whether i have played them already or not , positive or negative, are welcome.

Locked in:
Wisconsin -7 (leroys)
Illinois -13 (leroys)
Iowa +3 ( CRIS )
Oregon State -13 ( CRIS )
Georgia +9 ( CRIS )
Houston/utep under 74.5 ( CRIS ) added oct 23
bc/vatech under 44 (CRIS ) added oct 23
latech/utahstate under 51.5 (CRIS ) added oct 23
olemiss/auburn over 44 ( CRIS ) added oct 23
Strong leans
UNLV +12 eliminated oct 25
Virginia Tech -3 Eliminated oct 22

Talk me offs
Washington state +6 eliminated oct 23
Penn State +3.5 elimnated oct 23
Baylor +24.5 eliminated oct 23
OLE MISS +17.5 eliminated oct 23
Akron +2.5/ml eliminated oct 25
Cal +3 eliminated oct 25
Memphis -1 eliminated oct 22
Oregon -3 eliminated oct 22
usf -5 added to talk me offs oct 23

HUNT · Oct 22, 2007

on UGA with you bro...it looks solid.

E.T.G. · Oct 22, 2007

I like USC + points. Maybe since I can't remember the last time they were dogs but USC comes to play for big games and thats all there is to it. Sure they might be on the road in this one but I won't be laying points, I have the better defense, I have an offense that is capable, and I have a great game planning coach. I am just a fool though.

As far as BC-VT goes, I am looking at the under. BC is tough vs. the run and VT with Glennon will not have much success via the air game, I don't care what he did vs. Duke. VaTech is playing sound defense and they play great special teams. I don't think both teams hit the 20's in this game. I actually like BC the more I think about it, sure going down to Blacksburgh and coming out with a win is going to be a tough task, especially with the kicker they got but BC has the edge on offense as a whole (qb, rb, ol, wr) and they are stout on defense vs. the run. They have a good corner in tribbler who they can put on the best VT wr and let Glennon make other reads. I don't know really, home teams have been dominant on Thursday night.

signalcaller · Oct 22, 2007

On Illinois with ya man. GL this weekend

Dmoney416 · Oct 22, 2007

GL this week VK - on the other side of your Memphis lean.

Solid week last week and looking for another winning week.

spooks · Oct 22, 2007

Like Illinois in this spot....very good team this year.

I'm surprised you like UNLV +12, I know Wyoming's offense is astrocious and they shouldn't be laying that many points to anyone, but there tough at home especially and UNLV on the road I simply do not tust. They got blown out this past Saturday to an 0-6 CSU team 48-23....and it was there homecoming....good lord! I've seen this team play many times and they SU suck! I hope I am wrong if you do decide to play, I'm just giving you a heads up. It'll be one of those games where you'll age about 5x in 2 hours. GL on the rest of the card.

RetroVK · Oct 22, 2007

Huntdog --- :cheers: .. huntdog .. bulldog ... go dogs !

ETG -- A little bit leery of laying points to USC , though I have no fear of Carrol. I think Bellotti is a flat out better coach. Oregon defense is banged up and vulnerable but USC has looked anything but explosive on offense and they have not played a very tough schedule to date. the nebraska win no longer looks overly impressive. They did put up 38 last week on the road against a good irish defense but that was without an offensive threat from notre dame and zero pressure through out. Had oregon not fumbled at the one yard line in addition to a a few other ones in the fourth qtr vs cal they would be number 2 in the country right now. They are playing better football than USC right now and that stadium will be amazing .. just amazing. USC has better overall talent and depth but the chemistry and confidence don't quite seem to be there yet and their receivers are not making the plays we have seen from trojan units in the past. It boils down to the usc D vs the oregon O and I have yet to see anyone stop oregon yet. Not sure there is much value in the line but what value there is seems to be on the duck side. As far as the BC game, the eagles are ranked #1 vs the run in the nation. yup ... #1 ... and they held down ore last year in dominating fashion at home. Ryan vs Glennon ..... another big edge for BC. I have been atocious in midweek games this year to boot. Huge homefield edge here though , big special teams edge , and a huge revenge game as well. I just cannot trust Glennon .. I can't. Not after the peach bowl last year and everything that i have seen since. This strong lean is getting closer and closer to a no play. Also, as far as the under is concerned , I think your analysis is right. Not sure if that total is out yet but it is sure to be pretty low and VT defense and special teams can create points as can Glennon ( for the other team). Might be some big plays and I am not a huge fan of going under in college games totaled in the forties, where this will likely be. i made the total a 45.

Signal -- Go Illini !!!!:tiphat:

Dmoney -- thanks bud. I have some concerns with memphis in this game the more i have looked at it. I had memphis in the arkansas state moose at +4 earlier in the year for a push. I vowed to myself that I would be playing usm when they met memphis in november due to memphis inability to stop the run ..... or tackle ... or run to the ball. As I consider this .. i have to consider what forte has been doing for Tulane lately. My goodness. Tulane struggles in pass defense , which should equate to a lot of points for memphis but the tigers may struggle running. After arkansas state took the run away from memphis , the pass game really struggled. Laying points on the road with memphis is a recipe for disaster and in general i have struggled with small road favorites all year. Memphis gives up points on the road no matter who they are playing. Tulane has struggled against offenses similar to memphis though this year. maybe the over is worth a look as the match ups seem to favor both offenses. i am soured to the memphis side and this game should be eliminated from my list of talk me offs by days end. checking a few details and double checking known injuries before making it official.

spooks -- the unlv final score against csu was very very deceiving as not only was the game not played as a blow out but one could argue that unlv could have or should have won that game. it was a very very strange game and the rebels had over 550 yards of offense but was victimized by HUGE turnovers. Wyoming is in a bit of a funk lately and has not been performing up to expectations. The defense is sound for sure but they are not getting the play out of the qb position that they had expected this year. Wyoming final from last week was also deceiving as they had a probable scoring drive ended on a bad call from the officials where a runner down by contact was ruled to have fumbled the ball and it was returned for a td by the air force academy. Coach Glenn is pissed at his team from what i have read so far on the internet and that man can flat out coach. I see a low scoring game here , where the books also open a low total . in a game like that and an anemic offense like wyoming, i like the double digit points.

RetroVK · Oct 22, 2007

Wow , for anyone who wants a nice write up on the memphis/tulane game , check out dmoneys thread. it has convinced me. i am not playing memphis this week.

eliminated virginia tech and memphis as possible plays.

spooks · Oct 22, 2007

I see your point against Wyomings anemic offense. They lost 2 in a row in conference plays. At times there offense is anemic and I'm sure either Wyoming or UNLV will break out in one of these games. Even though the Rebels had 559 yards on offense, they also gave up 497 yards on the defensive side; via 279 yards on the ground.

UNLV started a frosh at QB; Clayton rushed for 135 yards and completing 23 of 36 passes for 304 yards and two touchdowns.

He also lost 2 fumbles and threw 3 picks (2 returned for TD's).....

If they start Clayton again, he might make those freshman mistakes again and I'm sure Wyomings D is more than capable enough to force any turnovers.

RetroVK · Oct 22, 2007

Spooks -- Wyoming probably has the largest homefield advantage in the mwc. they may have the best coach in the mwc and they are coming off a game that made glenn mad. Wyoming has a much much better defense than csu for sure ... but csu has a much better offense than the cowboys too. unlv for the better part of the year has played very strong defensively. this game was a strange one. i like decent defenses after a bad showing like they had last week. to be honest if it were not for the vast amount of history showing unlv atrocious play on the road , i would have played this game already. wyoming simply doesnt blow folks out. i see them winning this one by a td or so. wyoming did crush the rebels 42 -17 in laramie a couple years ago as 3 score favorites but this is certainly a better unlv team than in recent years and while unlv allowed 34 to wyoming last year , they held them to under 300 yards of offense. Again i am predicting a low total release for this game .. somewhere in the 48-51 range and plus 11.5 is a lot in a game like that unless it is a total mismatch.

RetroVK · Oct 22, 2007

Also , while clayton ( if he is the guy this week )is a likely candidate for a turnover ... Sween has been as well. His back up may see some considerable time this week and that also should aid the rebel side

JPicks · Oct 22, 2007

Great thread as always Kyle. Not sure how much the Cowboy's QB play will matter in Laramie this week as UNLV hasn't been able to stop anybody from running lately. The Rebels have given up 800 yards on the ground in their last three games and the Cowboys have the backs to run against them. Still do agree with ya that the Cowboys don't blow anybody out and a 24-13 game is completely likely. Good luck with whatever you decide.

Aztec4Life · Oct 22, 2007

Nice stuff as always bro!

Not on any of your games, though I agree with ETG on his assessment of Carroll. Sanchez looked solid last week, and Oregon has struggled to stop both the run and the pass, while USC's defense has done well in both areas. USC will come ready to play, especially considering they are a dog.

Just my opinion of course. Best of luck this week brotha!

:cheers:

RetroVK · Oct 22, 2007

ok decided to cut and paste some of my thoughts on the iowa play that i made in redbeardes ml thread. a must read every week for me and probably most of you. i think iowa should be favored.

The reason that Iowa should be favored in this game is that they match up incredibly well vs what michigan state brings to the table.

The spartans have struggled this year when they have been faced with a defense that stops the run effectively. Lets look at the two games where mich st has played good rush defenses.

home to pittsburgh
Michigan State had a very difficult time scoring. They rushed the ball 51 times for 144 yards. 2.8 a carry. The team scored 17 points in this game .... but it is even worse than it appears. 7 points came on a defensive td and their two scoring drives were also the result of turnovers as their td drive started at the PITT 35 after a turnover and their FG drive started at the PITT 22 yard line after another PITT turnover. They held on to win this game 17-13.

AT OHIO STATE
Now granted the buckeyes have an incredible defense but michigan state was held to just 9 fd for the whole game ! Again, 28 rushes 59 yards at 2.1 a carry. They scored just 17 points again and this time they had two defensive td instead of the one vs PITT. Their sole scoring drive was a 8 play 56 yard drive that resulted in a fg.

Michigan State simply cannot score when their run game is stifled.
Iowa at home has stifled the run.

Lets look at Iowa rush defense at home along with their general performance.

Home to CUSE .. Iowa 35 cuse 0
ok its syracuse but even so this should be impressive defensive numbers vs the run if it was Hanks High School, El Paso Texas.
syracuse had just 5 fd the entire game
they rushed the ball 30 times for 24 yards at 0.80 yards per carry.
syracuse had 103 total yards.
FD AND YARDAGE ADVANTAGE FOR IOWA
cuse 5 fd 103 yards, iowa 22 fd 408 yards

Home to Indiana ..Hoosiers 38 Iowa 20
deceiving score here.
indiana rushed the ball 35 times for just 73 yards at 2.1 a carry
FD AND YARDAGE ADVANTAGE FOR IOWA
indiana 17 fd 395 yards , IOWA 22 fd 428 yards
keep in mind part of the deceiving score and indiana yardage numbers was a 71 yard offensive fluke fumble recovery for a td down the sideline. sure most remember from espn highlights.

at home to Illinois illini 6 iowa 10

illinois rushed for 137 yards on 35 attempts , 3.9 a carry
FD AND YARDAGE ADVANTAGE FOR IOWA
illinois 15 fd 287 yards, iowa 21 fd 323 yards

Iowa stops the run at home, they have outplayed their opponents fairly consistently in their own house , save indiana who they were either even with or slightly outplayed.

This is also a terrible spot for michigan state. second consecutive road game after second straight loss the week before they host their big in state rival michigan. At a minimum it is a lookahead , at maximum it is a road sandwich game between at ohio state and home to michigan. Iowa on the other hand returns home after a loss to pass minded purdue on the road and has northwestern on deck.

also add in the fact that michigan state never wins in iowa. i think the last time they won in iowa the first george bush was just going into office ( 1989 ). They have lost their last two games in Iowa city by final scores of 38-16 and 44-16.

The combination of match up and spot makes this a great looking play to me.

B.A.R. · Oct 23, 2007

Great write-up on Iowa-MSU....

RambleOn · Oct 23, 2007

Looking good this week. Not with you or against you on anything. :shake:

counselor · Oct 23, 2007

Considering the defenses, I'm real interested in the total of the Wisky game...

RetroVK · Oct 23, 2007

counselor --i expect the wiscy total to be between 57 and 61 at open.

counselor · Oct 23, 2007

That might be too high for me to play...but if it comes in =>55, I'll be on it...

RetroVK · Oct 23, 2007

I won't be on that over either. We know one defense stinks .... jury still out on wisconsin defense.

I eliminated oregon today as a possible play. It was not likely to make the card this week for several reasons ranging from lost line value to injuries to talent disparity. The final straw came when I read the following from BAR's thread, which I believe is the kind of insight that seperates winners from losers .... thinking outside the box. It is just one of many facts and reasoned assumptions that leads me to not play the ducks but thought i should include his statement in my thread for I think it is dead on accurate. here it is...

. Oregon still doesn't have a good defense but their offense has been helping them out this year. What I mean by that is the offense gets up so much that the other team has to adjust their gameplan. I think this is where this game will be different. USC defense will give the Ducks offense their first challnge this season. A lot will depend on the gameplans.

Yup, this makes perfect sense to me.

counselor · Oct 23, 2007

vegaskyle said:
. Oregon still doesn't have a good defense but their offense has been helping them out this year. What I mean by that is the offense gets up so much that the other team has to adjust their gameplan. I think this is where this game will be different. USC defense will give the Ducks offense their first challnge this season. A lot will depend on the gameplans.

Yup, this makes perfect sense to me.

Very similar to the '98 Vikes. Suspect D never really got exposed (until playoffs) b/c teams were constantly playing catch-up and became one-dimensional early in the game. The USC offensive and defensive lines are better than Oregon's IMHO, and that could be trouble for Oregon if USC is able to control the clock and put some pressure on Dixon....

RetroVK · Oct 23, 2007

Very similar to the '98 Vikes. Suspect D never really got exposed (until playoffs) b/c teams were constantly playing catch-up and became one-dimensional early in the game. The USC offensive and defensive lines are better than Oregon's IMHO, and that could be trouble for Oregon if USC is able to control the clock and put some pressure on Dixon

:smiley_acbe:
yup very true. believe i had atlanta ml at minnesota that year. fond memories.

RambleOn · Oct 23, 2007

Check out Nevada Wolfpack. Your boys should roll.

Grind_4_Mine · Oct 23, 2007

RetroVK · Oct 23, 2007

why would you like nevada against idaho .. they have only beaten them by a combined score of 107 - 21 the last two years. lol. Nevada was also more impressive than the final score vs utah state showed last week as they ran wild on the aggies but gave up a punt return for td and turnover deep in their own end in the fourth qtr. You know me ramble, always a bit behind on wac games at this point in the week. I will make this some late night reading as it has not been on my radar and is one of 3 games i have not finished atleast 90 percent of my work on. will get back to you with some thoughts tomorrow.

pags11 · Oct 23, 2007

vegaskyle,

excellent analysis of the Nevada game last week...I actually like them quite a bit this week vs. Idaho...

RetroVK · Oct 23, 2007

I want to share a little line value trick/game that i like to play. I call it "Reverse the field". What I do is take the two teams who are playing and reverse the homefield advantage to see what the line would like. It often shows line value. I will do this for each of the games i have played and on each game remainin on my leans list. I am sure some of you already do this but thought I would share it as it is quite helpful in determining value plays. here we go.

1. wisconsin -7 , I give wisconsin a 5 point homefield advantage and I give Indiana a 3 point homefield advantage. This results in a 8 point swing from one homefield to the other. This would make Indiana a 1 point favorite at home to wisconsin. Doubt we would ever see indiana as a favorite for that game. Therefore, using the "reverse the field" line value analysis in a vacuum there is definite value with the badgers.

2. Illinois -13. I give Illinois a 3 point homefield advantage and ball state a 2.5 point homefield advantage. This results in a 5.5 point swing. This would make illinois a 7.5 point favorite at ball state. Seems reasonable. Therefore , using the "reverse the field" analysis in a vacuum there does not appear to be a significant value in the line.

3. Iowa +3. I give Iowa a 5 point homefield advantage and I give michigan state a 3 point homefield advantage. This results in an 8 point swing from one home field tothe other. This would make Michigan State an 11 point home favorite to Iowa. Are you done laughing yet ? Using the "reverse the field" analysis in a vacuum there is clear value in the line with Iowa +3.

4. Oregon State -13. I give Oregon State a 4 point home field advantage. I give Stanford a 3 point home field advantage. This results in a 7 point swing from one home field to the other. This would make Oregon State a 6 point favorite on the road at Stanford. Seems like slight value to Oregon State considering the road favorites at stanford this year with ucla, oregon, az st, and tcu. Therefore, using the "reverse the field" analysis in a vacuum there appears to be slight value in the line for the beavers.

5. Georgia +9. This game is played an a semi-neutral field that I give Florida a 1.5 point homefield advantage on. I give Georgia a 4.5 homefield advantage and I give Florida a 5 pointhome field advantage. If Georgia were at home it results in a 6 point swing form one field to the other and the line would be Florida -3. If florida were at home it would result in a 3.5 point swing form one field to the other and the line would be the gators -12.5. Too many in both cases. Therefore using the "reverse the field" analysis in a vacuum there appears to be value on the georgia side of the line.

6. unlv +12 -- I give unlv a 2 point homefield advantage and I give Wyoming a 4 point homefield advantage. This results in a 6 point swing from one home field to the other. This would make Wyoming a 6 point favorite at unlv. Seems about right. Therefore, using the "reverse the field" analysis in a vacuum it would appear that the line has no signiicant value either way.

7. Washington state +6. I give Ucla a homefield advantage of 4 points. I give washington state a homefield advantae of 3.5 points. This results in a 7.5 point swing from one home field to the other. This would make ucla a 13.5 point favorite over wazzu at home. Does not seem far off. Therefore using the "reverse the field" analysis in a vacuum there does not seem to be significant line value for either team.

8. penn state +3.5 -- i give penn state and ohio state each a 5 point homefield advantage. This would result in a 10 point swing from one home field to the other. This would make ohio state a 13.4 point favorite at home to penn state. definitely too high. Therefore using the "reverse the field" analysis in a vacuum there is clear value in the line for penn state.

9. Baylor +24.5. I give Baylor a 2 point home field advantage and i give kansas state a 4 point home field advantage. This results in a 6 point swing and would make kansas state a 18.5 point favorite at Baylor. No way. definite value in the line with baylor. Therefore, using the "reverse the field" analysis in a vacuum there is definite value in the line with the bears.

10. ole miss +17.5. I give auburn a 5 point homefield advantage and i give mississippi a 3.5 point home field advantage. This would result in a 8.5 point swing from one homefield to the other and would make auburn a 9 point favorite on the road at mississippi. seems about right. Therefore using the "reverse the field" analysis in a vacuum there appears to be no significant value in the line for either team.

11. Akron +2.5. I give each of these teams a 2.5 point home field advantage that would result in a 5 point swing if the fields were reversed. This would make akron a 2.5 point favorite at home to buffalo. does not seem too far off. Therefore using the "reverse the field" analysis in a vacuum there is no significant value in the line for either team.

12. CAL +3 -- I give Cal a 4 point home field advantage and i give arizona state a 4 point home field advantage ( add a 0.50 on the really hot days vs non heat teams). This would make Cal a 5 point favorite at home. Seems a bit too many for cal to be laying there. Therefore using the "reverse the field" analysis in a vacuum there appears to be slight value with asu in the line.

Now this is just a tool to give you a quick glance at the line and whether there is value in it on its face. it obviously does not take match ups, situational spots, weather siruations and on and on and on into consideration. But if i am going to bet a side ..... and this reverse the field yields a line the opposite direction that seems way off the mark ... i had better recap that game before i play it.

In the plays listed above there are 3 games that seem to have very significant value based SOLELY on this trick. Iowa appears to have sick value. Wisconsin has clear value. Penn State appears to have value. Just want to reiterate that this is just one small tool that i use each week and it is not as large a factor as spot or match up. i do suggest that you do this for every game that you plan on playing.

RetroVK · Oct 23, 2007

forgot in last paragraph to mention that baylor also looks like line value based on this analysis

RetroVK · Oct 23, 2007

ok added the following totals today to my card. damn ... if i lose badly this week there may be no recovery this season as i found a lot more value than normal.

ADDED
houston at utep under 74.5
la tech at utah state ( go aggies ) under 51.5
ole miss at auburn over 44
boston college at virginia tech under 44

eliminated the following from my talk me off leans list.
washington state, penn state, baylor, ole miss.

RetroVK · Oct 23, 2007

thoughts on the bc/vatech total.

it is a 100 percent weather play

i made the total 45 so i am actually getting a point the worst of it on its merits. this is a pure weather play and if the weather does not pan out the way i hope then i will be a slight underdog .... otherwise i should be a nice favorite.<TABLE style="BORDER-RIGHT: #863637 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #863637 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #863637 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #863637 1px solid" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=blkVerdanaText12 align=middle bgColor=#fffae2>Boston College (Schedule)
@ Virginia Tech (Schedule)

Thursday, October 25, 2007

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Event Day Forecast for Oct. 25