time to post my week 9 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Week six 39-33 +2.7 units
Week seven 39-32 +3.8 units
Week eight 42-25 +14.5 units
Overall 266-233 +9.7 units

First and foremost, want to wish the best of health to Bull who has been a wonderful contributor to our forum for years with his patented Bullsheet threads, with a primary focus on FCS action to include Ivy league. He has been a frequent contributor to my threads. Wishing him good health, a speedy recovery and a quick return to handicapping and posting.

Well, I was down over 13 units three weeks into my "play every (almost) game" experiment for the 2018 season. I nearly (or not so nearly, depending who you ask cough cough) hung it up for the year at that point. Weeks 4-7 were nice winning weeks that chipped away at what I thought was likely a difficult deficit to recover from. And then last week happened. While the 17 games over .500 made me happy, what really made me happy was a 12-2 performance on my bigger stuff (losing NCSU and Maryland). I caught a lot of breaks ... the ODU finish, the Purdue/TOSU over was ridiculous, getting to OT in the Miami Ohio at Army game to score the over, to name a few. I don't account for any reduced juice or extra juice in my CTG record keeping and count all bets as 1 unit in my CTG record keeping but I am also doing considerably better than just the 9.7 units posted. Suffice it to say I am happy, while realizing this experiment is going to have these huge winning weeks and huge losing weeks. I was hoping to get within a few units of even by year end for the stuff I post publicly after the first few weeks and now I can at least feel happy that the only way someone lost tailing me so far is if they quit (who could blame them), pick and chose, and more specifically pick and chose while not paying attention to the bolded stuff. For those that don't post plays, the guilt associated with losing if you think people might be tailing at all, is not a fun thing. So I feel good about where things sit from not having to feel guilty. I am not 100% certain but I think week 4 or 5 is when I switched to the Debbie Gibson avatar. Those that have followed my threads through the years know she has been a good luck charm, so I cannot take full credit for this heater the last month. I also went back and looked at some of my week 1 plays and what the lines were. I feel pretty good about the value were the same games to be lined today (adjusting for circumstances). Anyway, on to this week and be prepared for the regression back and my normal "they ruined the sport" "how does anyone cap this crap" "I am pretty sure I don't have an edge anymore", "I am hanging it up for the year' after a terrible week.

Troy at South Alabama (Under 55.5) Winner 1-0

Toledo at Western Michigan (Toledo 7, Under 68) winner loser 2-1
Baylor at West Virginia (WVU -14, under 68) winner loser 3-2
Ball State at Ohio (Ball State 10.5, over 64) loser winner 4-3
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (GT 3, under 57.5) winner loser 5-4
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (App St -10, over 47.5) loser winner 6-5

Louisiana Tech at FAU (FAU -3.5) loser 6-6
Miami Fl at Boston College (Over 51.5) loser 6-7
Indiana at Minnesota (Indiana -2.5, over 54.5 -multiple prices on both) loser winner (7-8)
Wyoming at Colorado State (Wyoming 2, over 46) winner winner 9-8
Utah at UCLA (Utah -10) winner 10-8

Wisconsin at Northwestern (NW 7, over 51) 11-9
Clemson at FSU (Under 50) 11-10
Umass at Uconn (Uconn 5, under 71.5) 12-10
Army at EMU (EMU -2) 12-11
Central Michigan at Akron (Cmich 4.5) 12-12
Wake Forest at Louisville (Over 63.5) 13-12
Vanderbilt at Arkansas (Vandy -1.5, over 52.5) 15-12
Purdue at Michigan State (Purdue 2) 15-13
Texas Tech at Iowa State (-3 -125, over 56) 17-13
UNC at Virginia (Under 51) 17-14
Coastal Carolina at Georgia State (Under 58.5) 17-15
USM at Charlotte (Pending)
TCU at Kansas (TCU -13.5) 17-16
Oregon State at Colorado (Oregon State 24, Over 63.5) 19-16
NIU at BYU (Under 44) 20-16
Kansas State at Oklahoma (OU -24.5) 21-16
MTSU at Old Dominion (Under 59.5) 21-17
UGA at Florida (Under 52) 21-18
Cincinnati at SMU (SMU 8.5) 22-18
ASU at USC (ASU 7) 23-18
Iowa at Penn State (Iowa 7) 24-18
Illinois at Maryland (Terps -18.5 tiny) 25-18
Duke at Pittsburgh (Under 36, Duke -2.5) 25-20
South Florida at Houston (over 74.5) 26-20
Rice at North Texas (UNT -28) 26-21
Kentucky at Missouri (Under 55.5) 27-21
Unlv at SJSU (Over 59.5) 28-21
Washington at California (Cal 11.5) 29-21
Washington State at Stanford (Washington st 3, over 52.5) 31-21
NMSU at Texas State (Under 55.5) 32-21
Tulane at Tulsa (Under 50.5)33-21
Boise State at AFA (Boise-9.5 over 58) 34-21
NCState at Syracuse (NCState Pick)34-22
Arkansas State at ULL (Arkansas State -3) 34-23
TAMU at Mississippi State (TAMU 1.5) 34-24
FIU at Western Kentucky (FIU -3.5) 35-24
Tennessee at South Carolina (S Carolina -7 -120 buy) 35-25
UAB at UTEP (Pending)
Texas at Oklahoma State (Texas -3.5) 35-26
Navy at Notre Dame (-23.5) 35-27
SDSU at Nevada (under 47.5) 35-28
Oregon at Arizona (-9.5, over 65) 35-30
Hawaii at Fresno State (Hawaii 24.5) 35-31
 
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Great week and GL. I have that one circled as well and was going to take another look tomorrow since I haven’t really seen the Beavs at all. I think my initial run had it around 18ish.
 
M.O.T said:
Great week and GL. I have that one circled as well and was going to take another look tomorrow since I haven’t really seen the Beavs at all. I think my initial run had it around 18ish.
Click to expand...

I haven't fully capped it yet myself. But there is no way this falls within my parameters for that line so I took it.

I have a friend who hates when I do this for obvious reasons (And I completely get where he is coming from).

Washington -17.5 (close) at home to Colorado, with a 3.5 pt hfa implies Washington -14 on a neutral to Colorado (some adjustment for star player out though)
Washington -10 (current) at California, with a 3 pt hfa implies Washington -13 neutral to Cal.
This implies California -1 to Colorado on a neutral field. But for fun ... let's say it is basically a wash since the Colorado player was probably worth more than point anyway. It basically implies that Cal and Colorado are extremely comparable from a PR perspective according to market.
Cal was -8.5 at Oregon state which implies -11.5 neutral.
This implies roughly Colorado -11.5 neutral if we believe them comparable.
This implies Colorado -14.5/15 at home to Oregon State.
(I will also assume that market is more accurate on Washington games than Oregon State games).


Assume some adjustment to pr from last weeks performances and maybe that would raise market pr to your 18ish ... this current line of 24 is still WAY different than what market was thinking two days ago.

I know this for certain .. 1. Oregon State is always capable of being blown out 2. There is zero line value to anyone taking Colorado at current number regardless of whether or not they end up doing #1.

I haven't capped the match ups yet or done a serious enough check of the injury situation but I felt this was safe to attack regardless.
 
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Super busy this week with work and a hard deadline for our company of this Wednesday whixh means I need to have the product completed for our review process done by Tuesday evening. It will be a trickle until late in the week.
 
RetroVK said:
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Week six 39-33 +2.7 units
Week seven 39-32 +3.8 units
Week eight 42-25 +14.5 units
Overall 266-233 +9.7 units

First and foremost, want to wish the best of health to Bull who has been a wonderful contributor to our forum for years with his patented Bullsheet threads, with a primary focus on FCS action to include Ivy league. He has been a frequent contributor to my threads. Wishing him good health, a speedy recovery and a quick return to handicapping and posting.

Well, I was down over 13 units three weeks into my "play every (almost) game" experiment for the 2018 season. I nearly (or not so nearly, depending who you ask cough cough) hung it up for the year at that point. Weeks 4-7 were nice winning weeks that chipped away at what I thought was likely a difficult deficit to recover from. And then last week happened. While the 17 games over .500 made me happy, what really made me happy was a 12-2 performance on my bigger stuff (losing NCSU and Maryland). I caught a lot of breaks ... the ODU finish, the Purdue/TOSU over was ridiculous, getting to OT in the Miami Ohio at Army game to score the over, to name a few. I don't account for any reduced juice or extra juice in my CTG record keeping and count all bets as 1 unit in my CTG record keeping but I am also doing considerably better than just the 9.7 units posted. Suffice it to say I am happy, while realizing this experiment is going to have these huge winning weeks and huge losing weeks. I was hoping to get within a few units of even by year end for the stuff I post publicly after the first few weeks and now I can at least feel happy that the only way someone lost tailing me so far is if they quit (who could blame them), pick and chose, and more specifically pick and chose while not paying attention to the bolded stuff. For those that don't post plays, the guilt associated with losing if you think people might be tailing at all, is not a fun thing. So I feel good about where things sit from not having to feel guilty. I am not 100% certain but I think week 4 or 5 is when I switched to the Debbie Gibson avatar. Those that have followed my threads through the years know she has been a good luck charm, so I cannot take full credit for this heater the last month. I also went back and looked at some of my week 1 plays and what the lines were. I feel pretty good about the value were the same games to be lined today (adjusting for circumstances). Anyway, on to this week and be prepared for the regression back and my normal "they ruined the sport" "how does anyone cap this crap" "I am pretty sure I don't have an edge anymore", "I am hanging it up for the year' after a terrible week.

Oregon State at Colorado (Oregon State +24)
NCSU at Syracuse (NCSU pick)
Troy at South Alabama (Under 55.5)
Miami Fl at Boston College (Over 51.5)
Wake Forest at Louisville (Over 63.5)
Rice at North Texas (n
Click to expand...
 
Retro vk thanks for the capping instructions last week I think I learned a lot from your help. I won some but was below 500 for the week
 
I am crushed by work at the moment but ...

There is a Tuesday night under bias that has existed.
The injury to Kaleb Barker was more important than I gave it credit for prior to Liberty.
Troy defense is now the strength of their team.
The weakness of that defense is pass defense.
South Alabama has only 203 pass attempts in 7 games, which is fairly low. I do not think they are incompetent though.
Troy has had some time to improve with the qb but it seems unlikely they are anywhere near what they were offensively prior. I would expect their pace to drop and their third down conversion rate to drop compared to early season averages.
Backdoor could be open.

So I like the under a lot and took it and would lean Sbama based on weighting the liberty game post Barker injury.

good luck whatever you take.
 
bones said:
I watched 28 mins of 2H...awesome
Click to expand...
Ya with 5 minutes to go third quarter and the way it was playing out, I was getting hopeful but still figured it was not going to end well.

So satisfying. Glad you got it yesterday and didn't wait until this morning.
 
That is prolly like winning 5x on a play...

a college football under where there are 7 second half points....

There is still hope for the game! ;)
 
B.A.R. said:
That is prolly like winning 5x on a play...

a college football under where there are 7 second half points....

There is still hope for the game! ;)
Click to expand...

It was incredible. I will forget it on the next bad beat. Being on the good side of a bad beat result just doesn't linger in the brain the way a bad side of the bad beat result does. Though, I have to admit, this might. The ECU game this past Saturday, this game ... I have gotten some quality breaks the last few days which is fairly abnormal to be honest. Wheee.
 
Catching up with plays from last night and this morning

Adds

Toledo at Western Michigan (Toledo 7, Under 68)
Baylor at West Virginia (WVU -14, Under 68)
Ball State at Ohio (Ball State 10.5, over 64)
GT at VT (GT 3, Under 57.5) Managed to bet the total at the bad number early and not bet GT at the good number early so stuck with both bad numbers.
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (App St -10, Over 47.5)
Latech at FAU (FAU -3.5)
Wyoming at Colorado State (Wyoming +2, over 46)
Wisconsin at Northwestern (Northwestern 7, over 51)
Umass at Uconn (Uconn +5, Under 71.5)
Army at Eastern Michigan (EMU -2)
Central Michigan at Akron (Cmich 4.5)
Vanderbilt at Arkansas (Vanderbilt -1.5, over 52.5)
Purdue at Mich State (Purdue 2)
UNC at UVA (under 51)
TCU at Kansas (TCU -13.5, bad Turpin, bad)
NIU at BYU (Under 44)
Kansas State at oklahoma (OU -24.5)
MTSU at ODU (Under 59.5)
UGA vs Florida (Under 52)
Arizona State at USC (ASU 7)
Iowa at Penn State (Iowa 7)
Illinois at Terps (Terps -18.5 tiny)
Duke at Pittsburgh (Under 46, duke -2.5)
USF at Houston (Over 74.5)
Kentucky at Missouri (Under 55.5)
UNLV at SJSU (Over 59.5)
Washington at Cal (California 11.5)
Washington State at Stanford (Washington State +3, over 52.5)
NMSU at Texas State (Under 55.5)
Tulane at Tulsa (Under 50.5)
Boise State at AFA (Boise state -9.5, Over 58)
FIU at WKU ( FIU -3.5)
Texas at Oklahoma State (Texas -3.5)
navy at Notre Dame (Notre Dame -23.5)
SDSU at Nevada (Under 47.5)
Oregon at Arizona (oregon -9.5,over 65)
Hawaii at Fresno State (Hawaii 24.5)
 
I will get the stuff entered into the main window and bold the bigger stuff. Not to beat the dead horse but I am busy with work and cannot devote any time to much else today.
 
Adds

Utah -10
Iowa St -3 -125, over 56
Indiana -2.5, over 54.5 (multiple prices. looks like i forgot to post. utilized most vested price)

Also want to note that CMich bet is not supported by my numbers. I have a gut feeling they find the winners circle.
 
Quick thoughts on tonights games

Georgia Tech - This game looms as essential for Georgia Tech if they are to make a bowl game this year. They are 3-4 with a remaining schedule of at VT, At UNC, vs Miami, vs UVA and at Georgia. That is a pretty tough slate to win 3 of 4 against if they fail tonight. They are coming off a bye but VT is also off a bye which can be helpful in preparing for option defense. The thing is, this is a pretty good GT team. While the defense is maybe slightly worse than your average GT defense over the last decade, they are a pretty average group. But this is arguably the best offensive unit they have fielded in some time. And the 3-4 record is really deceiving. In their 11 point loss to USF, the Jackets had a 176 yard advantage but special teams coverage hurt them. In their 5 pt loss to Pitt they out gained the Panthers by 51 yards and had six more first downs. While this is somewhat deceiving as GT didn't generate much offense until late it basically shows how even they played with Pitt. Another special teams gaff was the difference in this game as well. Against Clemson, the Jackets were dominated in every sense of the word and were out gained by 277 yards (the only time they were out gained all season). They out gained Duke by 50 yards but fumbles that led to short field TD's for Duke cost GT any chance of winning there. The point is that the team has been a tad unfortunate that their poor special teams got taken advantage of and that their turnover mistakes got taken advantage of. They just have not gotten away with their mistakes. They will probably make a Special Teams mistake in the game tonight and maybe we will get to hear them say "they still play beamerball" even though VT special teams haven't been all that special in the last 8 years. This is a solid football team and a group of guys who did not get to go bowling last year. I think it will matter to them. Meanwhile, the last few weeks the Hokies have given up 167 yards on the ground to ND and 235 on the ground to UNC. Ryan Willis has been decent at QB in some spots and not so much in others. He has averaged roughly six yards per pass attempt the last couple weeks and has thrown three interceptions. Outside of Old Dominion, the Hokies simply haven't been able to run the ball against FBS competition, 4 ypc, 3.75 ypc, 2.8 ypc, and 1.98 ypc respectively against ND, UNC, FSU and Duke. And were it not for a 41 yard run against ND they would have no games of averaging 4 ypc or more outside of the Monarchs. My point is that VT is going to have to rely on Willis to get them a win in this game. GT pass defense can be had but their DC can also throw some unique looks at QB's and different pressures ... which has led to GT getting 8 interceptions this season. I think this is a competitive football game and pretty close to a coin flip and the extra FG will loom pretty big as the game hits the fourth quarter. GT leads the nation in long rushing plays. I think with the bye week that the VT DC has a chance to defend the option just a little better than most teams have so far and GT will have to grind it out a little more but that plays into the under portion of my investment and I don't mind grinding and being the fresher team late in what I think will be a close game. As long as GT doesn't just blunder, they should be right there .... and as mentioned earlier ... they should be the hungrier team.
 
Continued

Wyoming - I will be adding some more to this play when I go downtown this afternoon. It has been growing on me a lot. I won't get into too much detail but this Wyoming team held six of eight opponents under 400 yards (boise and missouri the outliers), including holding that utah state attack to under 200 yards last week. In the meantime, the Wyoming offense is very rush based and since facing nmsu week one they have faced 4 top 40 rush defenses in the nation (statistically). They get major relief from that this week against CSU who is 112th vs the run this year when it comes to ypc allowed and 105th in yards allowed (despite 48 only to sjsu). That run defense has improved as the year has moved along but it is still major class relief for Wyoming. Also, CSU has shown some advantages with their home field in the fourth quarter as teams struggle to adjust to the altititude. But Wyoming is an altitude team and won't be effected. They have the best unit on the field and still have a chance at bowl eligibility if they sweep the remaining schedule, which is quite doable ... vs sjsu, vs afa , and at UNM. Tough defense for a kid to be thrown out there against who hasn't had a ton of playing time since 2016 with Hill getting the start. I think they are the better football team and took a shot on them.

I guess this is a friday night game but thoughts posted anyway.
 
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App State - Ga Southern has some decent rush defense showings which matters against this App st team but they have largely played against bad rushing offenses and their good time of possession has somewhat protected the defense. I think App State has both the more legitimate rush defense and better capability of throwing it if the rush gets shut down. I also think Ga Southern is generally not suited to the come from behind role which is the most likely scenario in this particular match up. App State had a rough game last week offensively without their Stud RB but I think they make adjustments here and find success with balance and I think they can find low thirties in most versions of this game. Total is low for a reason with two decent rush defenses and two teams set up to run the football and eat clock, but as I stated, I think App State hits low thirties most times, making that over appealing to me.
 
South Carolina is situational for me.

Cocks off a home loss and a bye with this being the last SEC home game. Stuck on three wins and have at Florida and at Clemson still left on the slate. Otherwise, Ole Miss, Chattanooga and whoever they reschedule for the missed game. Meanwhile Vols put a lot into last week and took a physical for it. They are banged up. I think S Carolina slightly better on both sides of the ball and have the home field. Just feels right to me.

As far as WVU hosting Baylor ... I think the bears struggle to find points in the game is really what all my plays come down to in that game. I am heading out of the house so cannot elaborate on that. Spot is a bounceback for willie wonka.
 
Got some things right and got some things wrong. Luckboxed the total in the app st. game. Certainly a lot of bad defense other than that game.

Sadly app st was my largest investment of the night and my worst. Wow they looked awful. Gaso just imposed their will on them defensively.
 
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